FC Nordsjælland-Esbjerg

Monday 18/5 18.00

FC Nordsjælland (7th) are six points after the important 4th place. It is still possible, but it seems improbable given FC Nordsjælland’s poor display in the last two matches. They have lost two away matches at Randers and FC Vestsjælland, where they once again showed how weak they are when they are not playing at home on the artificial pitch. The last match gave some extra problems since the offensive ace, Uffe Bech, left the match with an injury, which will keep him out here. Bech is the team top goalscorer with nine goals and he is a great player, but the expected replacement David Moberg-Karlsson has also done well when given the chance. Captain Patrick Mtiliga is expected to return on the left back, while central defender Andreas Maxsø returns in the defence. Both are very important additions that will stabilise the back line. Esbjerg (10th) got some distance to the relegation line with the 5-2 win against Silkeborg last weekend, but they still need every point they can get. The match showed that the team has a top level, which is great, but also a back line that looks very fragile. The central defenders are often too aggressive leaving space behind them. Offensively, Esbjerg have some exciting players. The on loan Swede Daniel Larsson is playing great at the moment, and deserves much credit despite not finding the net. His speed has been problematic for every opponent in the recent matches. Another weapon is Mick van Buren who looks very sharp at the moment. The Dutch striker came on as a substitute last weekend and scored twice and made two assists in just 45 minutes. He looks really fired up to prove he has quality. Add to this that Esbjerg have some wingers who are also goal seeking: Mohammed Fellah, Emil Lyng and Kevin Mensah (but he is reported very doubtful). Influential central midfielder Magnus Lekven returns here.

It is a match between two teams who have some great offensive players and perhaps not the most convincing defences. At the same time, it is not a match where one of the teams are expected to sit back and defend. Both will go full gas for a win here, so we should have a nice match in store. FC Nordsjælland should be favourites here, they are strong at the home field, but we do not find value in the odds for a winner. Instead, we find nice value in an over bet. This has the potential to be a really entertaining match!

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 1.98 at Betfair