Randers-FC Nordsjælland

Friday 02/05 18.30

Randers (7th) have not lost in five games. Focus for the last four games is now on achieving the 5th spot that offers Europa League next season. Randers’ problem has been the many draws during the season (13 out of 29 matches). They have lacked some cynicism to win tight matches. Fortunately they are getting close to their preferred starting eleven for once with right back Johnny Thomsen as the only doubtful player. Randers have a physically strong team that tries to wear down the opponent. FC Nordsjælland (6th) are another team that have been struggling with injuries during the entire season. Things are really improving at the moment and only a few regulars are still sidelined (midfielders Christensen, Laudrup and Lorentzen). FC Nordsjælland managed to beat FC Copenhagen at home last weekend after a good effort (1-0). But one thing is FC Nordsjælland at home and another is FC Nordsjælland away. FC Nordsjælland have only managed to win three away games the entire season (out of 14). It is like the mentality is different, when FC Nordsjælland are not playing on the artificial turf in Farum. The last five H2H’s have ended in four draws and one slim FC Nordsjælland win.

A tight match should be in store. Despite the fact that FC Nordsjælland won last weekend with a good effort, we are not convinced that they can do as well in an away match. Furthermore the physical style of Randers could cause problems for the small Nordsjælland team. We pick the home win with draw insurance.

Idea: 1 (DNB) – 1.88 at Unibet

UPDATE: No Borring (winger) for Randers. No catastrophe, but it limits the width of the squad.

AaB-Esbjerg

Saturday 03/05 17.00

AaB (1st) have a great chance of becoming Danish champions. One of the biggest obstacles left is this match. AaB have not been overly convincing in the last two matches, where the opponents have been able to score twice in each match against a vulnerable AaB backline. The backline will be in further problems with strong left back Jakob Ahlmann suspended, while central defender Rasmus Thelander is an unlikely participant. Good news is the likely return of creative striker Rasmus Jönsson. He adds extra flavour to a strong AaB attack. AaB have been insanely efficient in 2014, scoring on 37% of their shots on target (league average 25%). Esbjerg (5th) have drawed three times in a row. The draw against FC Midtjylland in last round (0-0) was quite impressive since Esbjerg managed to dominate the game despite being without key midfielder Magnus Lekven (sick) and Jakob Ankersen (suspended). Both should return on Saturday and with offensive players like Fellah and Pusic nearing their top level, Esbjerg can present a powerful line-up.

Two teams with a lot to offer offensively. Despite of this the match might be tactical with Esbjerg lurking on counter-attacks. We would not touch over/under. But a bet on at least one point for the away team seems inviting. Especially when having in mind that AaB are without left back Ahlmann (and without a natural replacement) against an Esbjerg side that have the strongest right hand side in the league with the Ankersen twins.

Recommendation: X2 – 2.05 at Mermaidbet/Tipico (combine 4.60 for away win at Tipico (44.5%) and 3.70 for draw at Mermaidbet (55.5%)).

Otherwise 2.00 at Bet365 is decent.

UPDATE: AaB will be without important midfielder Kasper Risgård. He has been an integral part of AaB's midfield that has been the best in the league.

SønderjyskE-Viborg

Sunday 4/5 14.00

It is very decisive match in the relegation race. SønderjyskE (11th) are giving away tickets for free, so an intense atmosphere is to be expected. SønderjyskE have not looked like a relegation prone team during 2014 and they have finally caught up with the rest after starting the year several points behind. It is especially the return of striker Tommy Bechmann and the loan signing Rubin Okotie (seven goals in eleven matches!) that have given new life to the team. SønderjyskE have a quite strong team when all players are fit and with the return of midfielder Daniel Jensen and defender Niels Lodberg from suspension, this is the case. Viborg (10th) won 3-0 against AGF last weekend in a match where Viborg was playing quite poor, but managed to score three times on four attempts on target. Viborg will either need to improve their game or stay efficient if they are to get any points here. In order to improve, the return of midfielder Wilton Figueiredo from suspension should be vital. His playmaking abilities have been one of the few bright spots in Viborg this year.

The bookies have noticed that SønderjyskE are a team on the up. If anything they have actually made SønderjyskE too big favourites for this match. We would rather touch over/under though. There is a lot at stake and both teams have their forces offensively, so a both teams to score bet seems logical.

Idea: BTTS – 1.72 at Nordicbet

FC Midtjylland-FC Vestsjælland

Sunday 4/5 17.00

FC Midtjylland (2nd) are still alive in the title race after 0-0 in Esbjerg. FC Midtjylland should be concerned about the current form of their top goalscorer, Morten Duncan Rasmussen, not scoring in the last six games he has played, despite being the lone striker. In other areas FC Midtjylland seem to be gaining some stability with the same players starting every weekend. The team is naturally still suffering from the absence of key players Izunna and Erik Sviatchenko, but they are still able to field a top-level team. FC Vestsjælland (9th) are masters in getting points in difficult matches. Last weekend they managed to earn a point in Brøndby (2-2) after scoring on two set pieces. Set pieces and strong defensive organization is the team’s forces. FC Vestsjælland might welcome back striker Ofere after having played practically without a striker the entire year. Midfielder Peter Nymann is suspended while left back Michael Lumb is doubtful. FC Vestsjælland have only lost three out of 15 away matches this season (only lost twice to nemesis Viborg and a slim loss to FC Copenhagen)! At the same time the matches they play have a tendency to be low scoring (8 out of 11 eleven matches this year has gone under 2.5 goals).

FC Midtjylland should be clear favourites, but the question is whether they are capable of breaching the FC Vestsjælland wall. Defensively Midtjylland are quite good at set pieces, so FC Vestsjælland should have problems scoring. The match could easily go under 2.5 goals.

Ideas: Under 2.5 goals – 2.02 at Bet365

2 (AH +1) – 2.00 at Bet365

FC Copenhagen-Brøndby

Sunday 4/5 19.00

The Copenhagen derby could decide which team that earns the bronze medal. It is a vital match for both teams and a full stadium is to be expected. FC Copenhagen (3rd) delivered another disappointing performance in Farum last weekend (0-1). There have been a lot of those this year. A good explanation is the absence of playmakers Nicolai Jørgesen and Youssef Toutouh. At the same time the FC Copenhagen strikers are playing without confidence. Central defender Kris Stadsgaard is doubtful and with Oluf Mellberg already absent, FC Copenhagen might have to use a central midfielder in the backline. Brøndby (4th) lack of set piece strength was evident against FC Vestsjælland. Despite domination by Brøndby they allowed two stupid set piece goals and the end result was a draw (2-2). Brøndby were without team top goalscorer Simon Makienok, but the towering striker returns from suspension to this match. The Brøndby midfield is looking strong at the moment with especially winger Andrew Hjulsager showing promising things. Furthermore the new signed striker Ariel Nuñuz are doing better for each match (goal in last match and a beautiful assist in the match before). Brøndby look like a team close to its best in several seasons.

For us this is almost a fifty/fifty game. Brøndby are playing better football than FC Copenhagen at the moment, but FC Copenhagen holds the home advantage. We believe that Brøndby are underrated for this match and they could easily get at least one point here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.90 at Bet365

AGF-OB

Monday 5/5 19.00

AGF (12th) are now in last place after another heart-breaking defeat (3-0 in Viborg). AGF dominated to a large extent the match in Viborg, but when you lack quality strikers and your defence is poor it is difficult to win. AGF have seven defeats in a row! They have scored one goal in these seven matches and conceded 15 goals! It is a team without confidence. Key midfielder Danny Olsen has just been reported out for the season. Defensively AGF might be without central defenders Kure and Pasanen, while goalkeeper Steffen Rasmussen might return for the first time in 2014. Replacement Emil Ousager holds the league’s by far lowest saving percentage in 2014: 63% (league average: 75%). This could be a boost, but Rasmussen must be a bit rusty after being sidelined for a long time. AGF have only two players with a current ability to chance things for the better currently and that is winger Akharraz and veteran Martin Jørgensen. If OB can close down the two, they should not face much danger. OB (8th) are suddenly involved in the relegation race after three defeats in a row. It has not been that bad and with a bit more credit from the referee OB would only have lost one of them. OB’s midfield and attack is among the strongest in the league on paper, and it should only be a matter of time until it starts excelling. Defensively the team looks weaker but against a team like AGF it might not cause problems. OB’s key midfielder Rasmus Falk left the last match with an injury, but he indicates that he expects to be ready for Monday.

AGF are so poor at the moment that it is hard to be optimistic. When they lose 3-0 against a poor team like Viborg it can only end with relegation. AGF have been very weak defensively against teams with good offensive runs from the midfielders and that is exactly what OB can offer. If AGF concedes the first goal we doubt they will get anything from this match.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.30 at Mermaidbet

Idea: OB clean sheet – 3.40 at Bet365

UPDATE: Pasanen is out. But Kure might play! Important defensive addition if that is the case. Falk is also expected to play.

Week 29 round-up

The weekend ended with a -0.25 unit return. After several impressive weeks we had a mediocre weekend coming. Unfortunately, it was especially our preferred bets (Tip of the Week and Recommendations) that failed. We still believe we made the right call with our Tip of the Week. It was a 50/50 game that AGF dominate at first, but as soon as Viborg scored their opener, AGF fell apart. Hopefully we will return to winning ways next weekend! Stay tuned!

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

Randers-SønderjyskE

Friday 25/4 18.30

Randers (6th) have earned ten points in the last four matches. It is an impressive achievement for a club that was entangled in the relegation race. Especially the last victory, 2-1 away against league leaders AaB, was remarkable. Randers started that match with five new players in the line-up and it looked like the match was sacrificed for the sake of the upcoming matches. Instead the new starters proved that they had something to offer, especially in strengthening Randers’ counter attack, so coach Todd has a very positive problem when deciding which players to field on Friday. One player that cannot be fielded is veteran defender Chris Sørensen, who is suspended, but he would not be a first choice anyway. SønderjyskE (11th) have finally moved away from the bottom position they have been in since the end of 2013. SønderjyskE took a nice victory against FC Nordsjælland (3-1) where superior motivation and the striker Rubin Okotie primarily drove the victory. Okotie is a quality striker on loan from Rapid Wien. With six goals in ten matches he is a big part of SønderjyskE’s improved appearance in 2014. SønderjyskE have some issues for this match with two solid players suspended: central defender Niels Lodberg and central midfielder Daniel Jensen. Both are veterans that play with coolness and stability.

SønderjyskE are still in desperate need of points so they will probably not approach this match defensively. Randers have shown that they are very capable of finding the net (Ronnie Schwartz with four goals in the last four matches). We would not touch 1X2 as we think the odds are set fine. But the over 2.5 goal bet could be interesting since both teams will aim for three points.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.96 at Betfair

OB-AaB

Saturday 26/4 17.00

OB (8th) are the league’s most inconsistent team. One week they beat FC Midtjylland away, the next they lose to FC Vestsjælland (0-1). Well, beating FC Vestsjælland is never easy, and OB even had some good chances, but the play was not good. To make matters worse OB’s central defender Daniel Høegh made a decisive own goal. Fortunately for OB he will be replaced by the, from suspension, returning captain Anders Møller Christensen. OB’s decent midfielder Azer Busuladzic is doubtful for this match with an injury. OB have some nice players when they are offered some space to work with: Rasmus Falk, Bashkim Kadrii, Mustafa Abdellaoue and Emil Larsen. They will look forward to this match since AaB are not a defensive team. AaB (1st) played a poor match last weekend (1-2 to Randers). AaB clearly missed the absent striker Rasmus Jönsson who is vital for AaB’s offensive build-up. Jönsson is expected to return for this match. Another concern is the drop in form of their star midfielder Kasper Kusk, who has been remarkably invisible during the recent matches. AaB will need him to be at his best if they are to win the league.

This will not be an easy match for AaB since OB have a tendency to be good against the league’s top teams (nine points out of twelve against top four teams in 2014). We believe that the odds for OB have increased too much and we find decent value in the home team. AaB have a tendency to play matches with many goals and if OB do not decide to go in super defensive mode, this match could have more than 3.5 goals (has happened in eight out of thirteen AaB away matches).

Ideas: 1 (AH +0) – 2.50 at Bet365

Over 3.5 goals – 2.95 at Unibet

UPDATE: No Thelander (central defender) or Jönsson (striker) for AaB. Both important players. OB without Busuladzic (midfielder). Injury news increase OB's winning chances.

Viborg-AGF

Sunday 27/4 14.00

Stakes are high in this clash between the two worst teams of 2014. Viborg (12th) have only managed to win one match under coach Skarbalius (out of ten). Based on our stats for ability to create chances, Viborg are also by far the weakest team in the league. They will therefore need their offense to be efficient to survive. This is not made easier by the suspension to strong offensive midfielder Wilton Figueiredo and the goalless period of league top goalscorer Thomas Dalgaard (has not scored in last three matches). Viborg will welcome Aleksandar Stankov back from suspension and the offensive midfielder could maybe add some spark to a Viborg team that has failed to impress under Skarbalius. AGF (10th) last six games have resulted in six losses with a goalscore of 1-12 (notice that AGF have only met teams from top 7)! AGF really lack quality players at the moment, and the few they have are bothered by injuries. Defender Anders Kure is very doubtful for this match, while midfielder Danny Olsen is more likely to play (but has not been able to train for weeks). Right back Alexander Juel Andersen is suspended, so AGF will be forced to invent since they have no other natural right backs in the squad. This is surely not the best build-up for the match. Nevertheless AGF should find comfort in the way the played against Brøndby (1-2) where they had chances for more than one goal and showed some passion for once. Especially the return of veteran Martin Jørgensen was vital. AGF will be arranging cheap busses to Viborg so the away team will probably find more support from the stands than the home team.

It is two teams that have been remarkably poor in 2014. A draw seems very likely, but we actually believe that the bookies have been too tough on the away side. For us this is a fifty-fifty match, especially when having in mind that AGF’s performances have been better away than at home.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0) – 2.25 at Bet365

Brøndby-FC Vestsjælland

Sunday 24/4 17.00

Brøndby (4th) are among those who are in play for the medals this season. Coach Thomas Frank has stabilised the team and an optimal starting 11 has started to present it self. Unfortunately for Brøndby striker and top goalscorer Simon Makienok is out due to suspension. Kenneth Zohore is likely to take his place. Zohore is the same type of player as Makienok, but his skills with the ball at ground level are still something that needs work. His strength and height advantage makes him a threat on set pieces. The only problem is that FC Vestsjælland (9th) are quite accomplished in the air as well. The most likely way Brøndby can tip over the FC Vestsjælland bus, which will be parked in front of the away side’s goal, is with the use of small passes and quick combos. Brøndby showed that ability against AGF and Esbjerg where small passes and trough balls led to goals. If Brøndby gets the space they need they will flatten a tire on the FC Vestsjælland bus, which makes it easier to tip over. Coach for FC Vestsjælland Ove Pedersen is a cynical tactician. He is probably the coach you want if you go for a draw. The defence has excelled in making the spaces between the opposing players tight, which has made it difficult for the opponents to break through. Five of the last nine games have ended with a draw and in the four other games the matches was won with only one goal. The matches have also been low on goals. Eight of the last ten have ended in two goals or fewer. The end justifies the means and the end could result in at least one point for FC Vestsjælland and put them closer to survival in the league. No matter how boring the play is.

There is no doubt that FC Vestsjælland are going to put up a defensive wall like they have done in many recent matches. Brøndby’s passing game is good but FC Vestsjælland have succeeded in closing down many of the teams in the league before (even teams with better passing game than Brøndby), and they will likely try again this Sunday.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 1.87 at Betfair

Idea: X – 4.00 at Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 27/4 19.00

FC Nordsjælland (7th) looked like a team that lacked motivation in the loss to SønderjyskE (1-3). The team still has a fine chance of securing a 5th spot that will imply Europa League football in autumn and with rivals FC Copenhagen visiting there should not be any reason for lack of motivation. A week’s rest will probably also be good for several of FC Nordsjælland’s players who looked tired after the tight Easter schedule. This might imply that quality players like Nicolai Stokholm and Uffe Bech are capable of playing the full 90 minutes. FC Copenhagen (3rd) played their probably best game of 2014 but despite of this only got only one point against Esbjerg (2-2). That was a tough blow for FC Copenhagen who with a victory had been back in the title race. FC Copenhagen still have plenty to play for since arch-rivals Brøndby are just one point behind. FC Copenhagen still lack some power offensively where the duo of Cornelius and Vetokele is not working according to plan. The midfield seems to be improving and especially the physique of Braaten gives FC Copenhagen an extra dimension. FC Copenhagen are probably still without veteran central defender, Oluf Mellberg. Alternative Georg Margreitter is not nearly as solid and could get into trouble against the speedy Nordsjælland players (John and Bech).

The last two times the two teams have met in Farum it has ended with a draw. That might well be the result this Sunday as well. FC Copenhagen should be small favourites based on the play they showed against Esbjerg, but they are still not spectacular. FC Nordsjælland are usually strong at home on artificial turf and they might be able to claim a point.

Idea: X – 3.55 at Nordicbet

Esbjerg-FC Midtjylland

Monday 28/4 19.00

Esbjerg (5th) have been one of the best teams of 2014, but in the past few matches it seems like Esbjerg have been on the retreat. A lucky win at FC Nordsjælland and a lucky draw at FC Copenhagen are among the latest achievements. Esbjerg have lacked offensive firepower in the absence of striker Martin Pusic. Pusic returned last weekend but was nowhere near his previous form. Maybe a week of training will help. Furthermore Esbjerg have not been able to keep up their energetic style. A week of recuperation should definitely help. A significant problem awaits Esbjerg and that is the absence of winger Jakob Ankersen (suspension). Ankersen is the top goalscorer of Esbjerg (eight goals) despite playing right wing. He is very important for Esbjerg’s offence. Alternative Jesper Rasmussen is far from the level of Ankersen. FC Midtjylland (2nd) have rebounded after a minor dip in form with two victories with a total of 9-2. Admittedly, it was against the two worst teams of the league currently (Viborg and AGF), but FC Midtjylland still displayed how strong they are offensively, when the best players are available. Particularly midfielder Petter Andersson is proving his great vision with four goals in these matches. Defensively FC Midtjylland still have some issues. The absences of midfielder Izunna and defender Sviatchenko are naturally increasing the defensive vulnerability, but with Esbjerg without Jakob Ankersen and a Martin Pusic in top form, it is probably not the worst day to visit Western Jutland.

Esbjerg have looked on the decline. A week of resting might have helped, but we still feel that FC Midtjylland should be slight favourites for this match-up. Just look at the odds in OB-AaB, a match between two teams of similar relative strength. It is especially the Ankersen absence that adds weight to FC Midtjylland’s advantage.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0)  – 1.92 at Bet365

Week 28 round-up

Another fine weekend! We ended the round in +1.95 units. For 2014 we have a +21% ROI. In total we are finally in plus as well! Our Tip of the Week has been successful three rounds in a row, so things are really working out. We could have used a bit more luck in SønderjyskE-FC Nordsjælland were our goalscorer Uffe Bech only managed to hit the post on a fine chance. Here is our stats:

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

FC Vestsjælland-OB

Sunday 20/4 15.00

FC Vestsjælland (9th) will soon be nicknamed as the most boring team in the league. Several injuries for the strikers have resulted in the team taking a very defensive approach and the result is obvious. The last five matches have only offered a total of four goals (only one of them scored by FC Vestsjælland). FC Vestsjælland are undoubtedly good at defending. They have recently drawn against good opponents as Esbjerg and FC Nordsjælland, while only a penalty scoring kept them from doing the same against FC Copenhagen in last round (0-1). The lack of a striker is continuing, so we should expect FC Vestsjælland to line up defensively yet again. They will also welcome the return of strong left back Michael Lumb, while central midfielder Morten Bertolt is suspended. OB (7th), the league’s yoyo team (you never know with them), suffered a tought defeat at home to FC Nordsjælland (0-1). Tough in that sense that OB managed to equalise despite playing 10 against 11 for a half, but the goal was incorrectly nullified. The match had two negative implications. A lot of players must be tired after having to run a lot of extra meters just three days before. Furthermore defenders Anders Møller Christensen and Espen Ruud are suspended. One of the spots will be covered by the decent Daniel Høegh, but the other spot is up for grabs. No matter who takes it, it will be a weakening. Offensively OB are led primarily by midfielder Rasmus Falk. The other offensive stars, Emil Larsen and Bashkim Kadrii are currently not at their usual level. The two teams previous meetings this season have resulted in a win to FC Vestsjælland and a draw. FC Vestsjælland are particularly strong at set pieces and they could take advantage of a OB team without many tall players.

With FC Vestsjælland’s offensive issues we should not expect to see a fascinating match. They will defend first and maybe look for scoring later. OB are very up and down. Without two regular defenders, they might have to play with a bit more caution. We expect a low-scoring match where the chances of a slim win to FC Vestsjælland is not unlikely.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 1.83 at Betfair

Idea: 1(1-0) – 1.67 at Bet365

AaB-Randers

Sunday 20/4 17.00

AaB (1st) are unstoppable at the moment with eight wins in the last nine matches (cup matches included). Their midfield is really exceptional. They are playing with a lot of tranquility and they do not seem to panic even though they are on the verge of securing a surprising championship title. Last round they got an easy win in Viborg without using much energy (2-0).  Unfortunately, their strong attacker Rasmus Jönsson who is vital in the chance creation is out with a groin injury. Anders K. Jacobsen will replace him, but he is more of a goalgetter than a chance creator, so in that sense he is quite similar to AaB’s other frontman Lukas Spalvis. We will see if it will cause AaB problems. It surely could. Randers (8th) were poor in Esbjerg but managed to get a point despite of the effort (2-2). Randers have now earned seven points in the last three matches. Actually it is a bit conflicting since Randers played better matches at the start of 2014 without earning any points. It is especially the return of striker Ronnie Schwartz that has helped. Schwartz has been cynical, scoring in the last three matches. A very decisive match-up will be whether Randers’ midfielder duo Bjarnason and Keller can fight off AaB’s Würtz and Risgård. The latter are definitely favourites to win that duel.

For us it is no bet match. AaB are favourites and we believe the bookies have set the current odds fairly. If anything Randers might be able to defend a point, which they have been quite good at this season (only lost two out of 13 away matches – eight draws!).

Idea: X – 3.95 at Betfair

SønderjyskE-FC Nordsjælland

Monday 21/4 13.00

SønderjyskE (12th) delivered a fine effort in Brøndby (3-1) and even though they were without two of their best offensive weapons in the line-up, Absalonsen and Bechmann, they managed to create several chances against Brøndby. Bechmann should return to the line-up so SønderjyskE should have something extra to offer offensively. Despite of a poor league position, SønderjyskE do not appear to have given up and they have not self-destructed as other relegation threathened clubs. They have managed to keep games tight, but their material is also decent. FC Nordsjælland (6th) managed to win in Odense Thursday (1-0). It was by no means a pretty victory. After a good first half, FC Nordsjælland was forced to make all three substitutions early and this meant that several of the fragile FC Nordsjælland players were forced to play 90 minutes (apparantly some wanted to be subbed out – unable to count to three). Unfortunately no news regarding the fitness status have been revealed, so the called up squad tomorrow will be interesting. Our guess is that some of the mentioned (important) players here might not be in the squad: captain Stokholm, winger Joshua John, winger Uffe Bech, defender Ivan Runje and defender Jens Stryger. The most of them are probably in the squad, but might not be at 100%. Nevertheless FC Nordsjælland seem to have improved in the away matches. After claiming only 4 points in the first 10 away matches, they have now earned 7 points in the last 3. FC Nordsjælland have been a bit more cynical and accepted that they do not have to win the ball possesion stat every time. Offensively they look better with nice performances from John and Bech recently.

It will be a tight match-up. Currently we would not bet on a winner, but the called up squads (or line-ups) might change that. What we could bet on is goals. SønderjyskE actually have some offensive capabilities that makes us doubt that they will defend a point home. They intend to win and we should have a fine game since FC Nordsjælland’s forces are not in the defence either. Over 2.5 goals is, in spite of FC Nordsjælland’s five under games in a row, a very possible outcome.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.04 at Betfair

UPDATE: Only Runje is not called up. FC Nordsjælland potentially with a fine line-up. Absalonsen also called up for SønderjyskE. Not bad for the offense..

FC Midtjylland-Viborg

Monday 21/4 15.00

Two clubs that really hate eachother. Tension will be high in this match! FC Midtjylland (2nd) got back on track with a solid 4-0 win at AGF who were very generous in their defending. Importantly, the strong midfielder Petter Andersson finally signed in with two goals after a longer injury break. FC Midtjylland do still have some issues though, especielly in attack, where striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen seems limited by constant minor injuries. FC Midtjylland proved that they are a brilliant counter team in Aarhus, but they tend to struggle when they have to dominate the matches. FC Midtjylland are still without the vital duo: Izunna and Sviatchenko, but they should be able to field the same starting eleven as last round for once. Viborg (11th) were on an impossible mission playing 10 against 11 against league leaders AaB last weekend (0-2). After AaB scored the 2-0 goal Viborg gave up and just decided on defending, resulting in AaB connecting 104 consecutive passes (lasted more than five minutes). Hopefully Viborg have saved some energy for this match. They should have an advantage in having two extra days of resting (five against three). Another positive is the return of veteran left back Christopher Poulsen from suspension. But this is also the end of the positive news. Viborg will be without two of their best offensive weapons, offensive midfielders Figueiredo (been Viborg’s best player lately) and Stankov. Without them Viborg might be forced to take a more defensive approach. It is a concerning match-up for Viborg. They are at the bottom of the league with a SoTR of 37% while FC Midtjylland leads with a SoTR of 60%. We should expect to see FC Midtjylland dominating from start to finish, while Viborg will be hoping that striker Dalgaard will have a lucky punch.

FC Midtjylland have lost three home matches in a row, but the last match against AGF signalled better times. Playing at home against Viborg should be a nice opportunity to earn three more vital points in the championship race. The price for a home win is quite low though. Alternatively you might consider under 2.5 goals. FC Midtjylland’s top goalscorer Duncan is not at his best currently, while Viborg might be forced to take a defensive approach. But since it is match between rivals an early goal could make it explode.

Ideas: 1 – 1.60 at Tipico

Under 2.5 goals – 2.26 at Betfair

AGF-Brøndby

Monday 21/4 17.00

AGF (10th) suffered another awful home defeat against FC Midtjylland Friday (0-4). That they will have to play another home match just three days later is not optimal. The AGF players would probably rather play away games right now. The five last home games (including a cup match) have resulted in five losses with a score of 3-17! The home fans have given up, they are not supportive at all and prefer booing than cheering. At the end of the FC Midtjylland match AGF players walked around clapping towards the empty stands. But people are furious for a good reason: AGF are insanely poor. Offensively nothing happen. Defensively there is no coverage and the keeper is simply not good enough. Adding to insult, one of the few quality players, defender Anders Kure left the last match early with an injury and we doubt that he will be available here. Alternative Petri Pasanen is slow and not playing with the same passion for the club. Only bright thing is the return of central midfielder Martin Jørgensen from suspension. The veteran Jørgensen’s coolness will improve a midfield without ideas. Brøndby (4th) are struggling to stay in the hunt for medals. And while it is not always pretty they win matches (last round 3-1 vs. SønderjyskE). Brøndby are benefitting from the return to full fitness of several vital players, including Makienok, Albrechtsen and Boulahrouz. Credit also goes to the quality goalkeeper Lukas Hradecky who is widely recognized as the league’s best keeper. Brøndby have according to our sources no new injury issues nor suspensions. Brøndby and AGF met four times in 2013 resulting in four wins to Brøndby with the score 12-3. Surely not AGF’s favourite opponent.

AGF have lost five matches in a row and not scoring a single goal at the same time. The team is without confidence and what’s worse also quality players at key positions (goalkeeper and striker). Brøndby on the other hand must have high confidence after the third win in four matches. They will have strong support from the stands on Monday and we believe they will win. The odds have dropped a bit and will only drop further. Bet now!

Tip of the Week: 2 – 2.05 at Mermaidbet

FC Copenhagen-Esbjerg

Monday 21/4 19.00

FC Copenhagen (3rd) have won three matches in a row, but it has been against the league’s poorer teams (FC Vestsjælland, AGF and SønderjyskE). FC Copenhagen have won the matches fairly, but by no means dominated the matches as you should expect. FC Copenhagen are nothing more than average team currently. Without the two creative midfielders, Nicolai Jørgensen and Youssef Toutouh, FC Copenhagen are without bite offensively. At the same time the veteran central defender, Oluf Mellberg is injured and the alternative Georg Margreitter has not been convincing. Coach Solbakken is obviously frustrated, but we doubt he can do anything about it now. FC Copenhagen will have to wait to the transfer window to improve the squad. Esbjerg (5th) looked a bit tired against Randers after a strong start (2-2). With four days between these matches they should be fit for fight though. Esbjerg were strong in the beginning of 2014, but have since lost some quality. Or the answer is probably the strong striker, Martin Pusic, who got injured four matches ago (roughly the same time Esbjerg started to look human). Pusic is a very probable return for this match, and while he will not be able to play 90 minutes, his strength will open new offensive possibilities for Esbjerg. Strong right back Peter Ankersen returns from suspension. Bad news is the possible absence of Esbjerg’s goalkeeper Martin Dubravka. Dubravka has a minor injury and is doubtful. Second choice, Jonas Jensen, has done well in his last club Skive, but that was in the Danish 1st Division. We are not convinced he has the level for Superliga. Esbjerg have not lost in the last four H2H’s (three draws and one win).

FC Copenhagen are not looking like a monster right now. In the last match against Vestsjælland they had only two shots on target, where one of them was from the penalty they scored upon. They are just an average team currently and against a energetic team like Esbjerg, they could easily get into trouble. This match is much more equal than the bookies believe. We pick Esbjerg to win, draw no bet.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) – 3.67 at Bet365 (bet 73.3% on away win at odds 5.00 and 26.7% on draw at odds 3.75)

Week 27 round-up

A leaking AGF defence and a poor decision by a linesman in OB-FCN were all that separated us from a full house weekend. Instead we have to settle for 8 out of 10 successful bets and a plus of 7.45 units! That's okay with us! After a terrible start in the autumn of 2013 we are finally heading for a total surplus after a fantastic 2014. We have recorded +21% ROI in 2014! So stay tuned as more bets are posted soon!

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

Viborg-AaB

Wednesday 16/4 20.00

Viborg (11th) are feeling the pressure after just earning six points in eight spring matches. While Viborg took some lucky points in autumn the same has not been the case in spring and this had led to Viborg taking a league position as expected. Based on their ability to dominate matches they are the worst in the league, recording a SoTR of only 38%. The team looks better in 2014 though, especially with the addition of Brazilian Wilton Figueiredo who also scored his first Superliga goal last weekend (3-1 loss at Randers). So while the offence is improved the defence is not exactly looking solid. Especially in matches at home against the strong teams (top 6) Viborg have a hard time: 9 shots on target is allowed on average in these games (vs. 4.5 shots against bottom 6 teams). Viborg will benefit from the return of regular central midfielder Nicholas Gotfredsen. AaB (1st) are heading for the league title after yet another impressive win (2-0 vs. Brøndby). AaB have now won three matches in a row, and remarkably it is against all the other top 4 teams. AaB have been splendid offensively, and in our opinion it is their brilliant midfield that is the main force. Players like Kusk and Thomsen are creative and possess a tremendous work rate, while central midfielder Risgård and Würtz are crafty veterans that rarely make mistakes. Another reason for AaB’s splendid position is their insane shooting accuracy. They score on 37% of their attempts on target (league average 27%). This accuracy will be difficult to keep up since AaB is possibly without their two normal strikers. The creative Swede Rasmus Jönsson is surely out, while Lithuanian sensation Lukas Spalvis (6 goals in spring alone) is suffering from back problems, but is expected to play. Alternatives Curth, Jacobsen and Frederiksen are decent, but they are not exactly red-hot form. Würtz will return from suspension, while right back Henrik Dalsgaard is still injured. Last time they met AaB smashed Viborg 5-0 without Viborg getting a shot on target.

Momentum and quality is both in favor of AaB. Furthermore, they seem like having the upper hand against Viborg (winning 8-1 in the two H2H matches of the season). Despite the possible missings of AaB, they still possess a midfield that should dominate Viborg completely. Viborg will attempt counters and could score against a AaB defence that is by no means the league’s most secure. If AaB had both their strikers fit we would have taken the over 2.5 goals (AaB have been over in all 12 away matches!), but at 1.74 the odds is just short of acceptable. So we stick with AaB to win.

Idea: 2 (AH -0.5) – 1.85 at Bet365

OB-FC Nordsjælland

Thursday 19/4 15.00

OB (6th) took an impressive win in Herning last weekend (2-0 against FC Midtjylland). OB were highly efficient in a match were the basic play was poor. OB need to improve their game since they cannot count on winning matches where they lose 17-4 in shots. OB will be without midfielder Kadrii and attacker Skoubo, but neither of them delivered much against FC Midtjylland. The two will probably be replaced by Azer Busuladzic and Emil Larsen, both quality replacements. OB will be able to field a physically strong central midfield with players like Spelmann, Skulason and Busuladzic. FC Nordsjælland (7th) suffered a tough defeat against Esbjerg on Monday (1-0). FC Nordsjælland delivered a strong effort and only super saves of Esbjerg’s goalkeeper kept them from scoring. It was an uplifting performance by FC Nordsjælland that proved that they are strong even without key players like central midfielder Nicolai Stokholm and winger Joshua John (both are doubtful for this match).  Winger Uffe Bech was back from injury and he deserves a lot of credit since he managed to make strong Esbjerg defender Peter Ankersen dizzy. Bech was only able to play 45 minutes and with this match only three days later we doubt FC Nordsjælland will use him any longer in this match (if he is even playing that is). What FC Nordsjælland were particularly good at was distributing the ball from the midfield. OB will have to put pressure on the FCN midfielders so they won’t do it again. FC Nordsjælland have a poor away record (eight points in twelve matches – four of them in the last two matches though) and the last four H2H’s have resulted in home wins.

The team that wins the fight for midfield is also the expected winner of this match. The question is whether the home field advantage will give OB extra energy. If so, they should win. Otherwise we have a fairly even game. If we had to choose, we would pick the draw at 3.50.

Idea: X – 3.50 at Mermaidbet

UPDATE: Kadrii called up for OB. Skoubo out injured. Bech, Stokholm and John all called up for FC Nordsjælland. OB likely to start with a five man midfield. Good for a draw bet.

Esbjerg-Randers

Thursday 19/4 17.00

Esbjerg (5th) are the team that have earned the most points in spring (17 points in 8 matches – tied with AaB). Esbjerg have also been the best team in all of the matches except from one: the last one (1-0 win at FC Nordsjælland). Esbjerg were unable to connect passes for most of the match and it was obvious that they are suffering from the absence of strong striker Martin Pusic. Pusic is probably out for this game as well. Another key Esbjerg player, winger Jakob Ankersen, is also very doubtful for this match after leaving the last match early with a hip injury. Without this duo Esbjerg look more like an ordinary team. Esbjerg will welcome back the return of strong left back Jonas Knudsen. Randers (8th) have been looking good in 2014 but have had problems earning points, mainly due to the absence of strong striker Ronnie Schwartz. Schwartz is now back and he has celebrated this by scoring in the last two matches with Randers winning at the same time. So it is a Randers team with renewed confidence and some distance to the relegation spots that arrive in Esbjerg on Thursday. Esbjerg have struggled to cope with Randers in this season (lost both H2H’s) and it is especially the very physical approach that have given problems. Randers will probably be without right back Johnny Thomsen, but he is the only regular that is not fit.

Momentum are pointing in each direction for the two teams. Esbjerg should be favourites based on their good performances in 2014, but based on the poor performance last weekend and the poor record against Randers, they could easily drop points here. We expect Randers to earn a point here like they have done in 10 out of 12 away matches!

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.95 at Bet365

UPDATE: Esbjerg's brilliant right back Peter Ankersen is suspended for this match. An important absentee since he is probably the best right back in the league (first choice for national team + has already signed a summer contract with Red Bull Salzburg). Pusic is out!

FC Vestsjælland-FC Copenhagen

Thursday 19/4 19.00

FC Vestsjælland (9th) were on the way to getting nicknamed “the masters of parking the bus”, but a late allowed (own) goal against SønderjyskE showed that they are not perfect in this art. But they are good: if you look at the last seven matches they have only allowed four goals. Not bad for a team struggling to fight off relegation. But the strategy is obvious: defend, defend, defend. No unnecessary risks are taken and balls are rather kicked away than attempting a risky pass. The strategy is also a necessity since FC Vestsjælland are suffering from the absence of several injured strikers (Ofere, Tshibamba and Thiago (in squad but not fully fit)). FC Copenhagen (3rd) are just three points from the silver medals. This despite them playing very poor football. They are clearly not brimming with confidence at the moment and against the horrendous (sorry!) AGF, they had a tough time just finding the net (1-0 after a goal in the 84th minute). FC Copenhagen are very dependent of the creative Nicolai Jørgensen and his absence is clearly affecting the teams offensive capabilities. As the best alternative, Youssef Toutouh at the same time is injured, FC Copenhagen are offensively playing like headless chickens. The expensively bought striker Andreas Cornelius is far from his old form and the offense of FC Copenhagen is not at all dangerous, scoring an average of exactly one goal per match in 2014. FC Copenhagen are without central defender Oluf Mellberg.

We expect FC Vestsjælland to go in defense mode and FC Copenhagen to struggle in the attempt to break down the wall of 10 FC Vestsjælland defenders. A low-scoring affair is in the cards and statistics are supportive: in 2014 both teams have played six out of eight matches under 2.5 goals and the last two H2H’s were under 2.5 goals.

Tip of the Week: Under 2.5 goals – 1.90 at Tipico