Week 33 Superliga previews

Last previews of the season. Hope you enjoyed it!

Randers-Esbjerg

Sunday 29/5 17.00

Nothing at stake here. Randers have been looking strong all of 2016, but were for once dominated at SønderjyskE in the last round. They would like to finish the season nicely in front of the fans and the leaving head coach. They will have to do without central midfielder Amini who is banned, while right back Thomsen returns. In total, it should be a Randers side close to its strongest. Esbjerg have been terrible in 2016. They have major defensive problems and they seem without a clear strategy. They tend to fall apart in 2nd half as the players use a lot of energy in the first half. Esbjerg continue to have a number of injuries, but the starting line-up should be fairly good – it’s the lack of confidence and clear strategy which seems to be the problem.

Randers have been looking so good for 2016, that I am willing to give them a shot here. The price is not impressive though in a match which nothing at stake. Randers to win second half could be interesting, but price likely to be bigger live. Esbjerg have lost the 2nd half in 5 out of the last 6 matches!

Idea: 1 (2nd half) – 1.90 at Sportingbet

Viborg-Hobro

Sunday 29/5 17.00

Viborg started 2016 nicely, but have struggled lately. I think the long-term injury of creative force Akharraz has hurt them a lot. They still have a defensively solid side with a spectacular striker in Deble. Only minus with Deble is his lack of efficiency. He has made 5 goals this season on 79 attempts. Viborg will be without central defender and captain Rask which is a clear minus. Otherwise, they should be able to field the strongest formation. Hobro have been doing better lately. They are playing fairly even matches and even starting to win a few. However, they have struggled a lot with the offensive efficiency, and apart from George they lack a true goalgetter. George is banned here, so Hobro will probably have to find the net from set pieces, but in that light the absence of Viborg’s Rask who is the strongest header for home side could come in handy.

Viborg won the last head-to-head match with 6-0. It was actually quite even, until Viborg scored the first goal. We won’t see Hobro fall apart in the same way again. They seem much more in balance, and they are here to enjoy the last game in the Superliga before relegation. I think the price for away win is fairly good given the recent performances of both teams, so that is my pick here.

Idea: 2 (AH +1) – 1.88 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-AGF

Sunday 29/5 17.00

FC Copenhagen are to celebrate the title here. After giving several players some rest in the past week, they have been called back, so FC Copenhagen should be able to field the strongest side here with only minus being injured winger Kusk. FC Copenhagen would love to finish nicely, so there should be some motivation here. AGF have been playing well throughout 2016, but did not get the points for a long time. That have really changed lately and AGF have also won the tight matches, which they did not do before. AGF should be motivated to take revenge after losing the cup final to FC Copenhagen, but otherwise the match is without real importance. FC Copenhagen with have to do without two regulars, central defender Elez and central midfielder Pedersen.

I think FC Copenhagen will take this, but odds are very low given the unimportance of the match. The bookies price setting actually fit my own pretty well. I will instead with Santander to score. He has been deadly off late, scoring goals in his last 5 starting appearances. With Elez is out, it should only make his life easier.

Recommendation: Santander to score – 2.20 at Unibet

OB-AaB

Sunday 29/5 17.00

Another match without importance. I have not been too impressed by OB in 2016, but with some good offensive players, they will always be able to take some wins. Unfortunately, team top goalscorer Festersen (14 goals) will miss the match with injury. OB still have Jacobsen and Falk in the attack, so they should be able to create something. However, OB defensive quality is also questionable given the absence of backs Barrett and Lund, plus midfielder Skulason. I am especially concerned by OB’s likely choice on left back, Diarra, who makes too many costly mistakes. AaB are also in a bad state. They have really disappointed in 2016, so question is how motivated they are here at the end. They will have to do without several players. Left back Ahlmann is injured and his usual replacement Blåbjerg is banned. In attack, they will be without both usual strikers Enevoldsen and Spalvis (30 goals combined this season), and the replacements have not shown that they are capable of finding the net. The only positive thing for AaB is their strong midfield with Würtz, Risgård and Thomsen, which should be able to dominate OB’s vice versa.

A real summer match with nothing at stake. It could really go either way and it all depends on motivation. Maybe it will even end in a boring draw. I actually think this is a quite likely result given that none of the teams have no urge to push for a win.

Idea: X – 3.85 at Danske Spil

Brøndby-SønderjyskE

Sunday 29/5 17.00

Brøndby will have several players back here, which should increase their chances of taking a win here, which could see them on the podium. However, it is not in the cards that FC Midtjylland lose to FC Nordsjælland (despite my pick), so maybe Brøndby won’t be super motivated. The returning players are right back Larsson and rotation midfielder Holst. The most important return could be central defender Agger, but it is still not clear (squad not published yet). He means a lot for the defensive stability, although I think the media is giving him too much credit as he is certainly far from his Liverpool heydays. Brøndby are not impressive offensively, and they were lucky that Hobro were inefficient and gave away easy goals in the last match. SønderjyskE on the other hand are playing really well at the moment. They are dominating their matches and have a strong commitment and focus. The strategy is clear and they are here to get at least one point, which would leave them with a totally unexpected 2nd place. SønderjyskE have no new absences and should be able to field a strong team here.

SønderjyskE have been playing way better than Brøndby in 2016 (SOTR: 56% vs. 48%) and they seem more committed than Brøndby. Being at home with good support is a clear advantage, but SønderjyskE don’t mind being defensive and go for counter-attacks. If Agger is not playing, value should only increase.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.875 at Bet365

FC Midtjylland-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 29/5 17.00

FC Midtjylland need a win here, otherwise they risk losing the 3rd place. At the same time, a win could give them a 2nd place, which would be a fine final placement. So motivation should be big for the home side. They have done okay in the spring without really excelling. They are clearly not as dominant as they were last season and they have struggled to really get their offensive game going. For this match, the defence could be an issue. Central defender Bodurov is banned, while other central defender Hansen is doubtful with injury. FC Midtjylland have Banggaard as a decent replacement, but if both players are out, they have a problem. Left back Novak will also miss the match with a ban, but that is a minor problem given the great recent performances of the young replacement Nissen. FC Nordsjælland have such a young side. In the last match 9 out 11 players were 22 or younger. This could mean good things awaits in the future if the players are allowed to evolve. Currently, it seems like an investment as FC Nordsjælland are not something spectacular. They get some wins, but mostly on own artificial pitch.

There is a huge difference in motivation and FC Nordsjælland have often looked uninterested in away matches. However, I actually find the price for away win attractive as FC Midtjylland are not flying and have defensive issues. We saw in a previous round that motivated teams, Brøndby and AaB, lost to two teams without anything to play for at odds +7. This could also happen to FC Midtjylland.

Idea: 2 (DNB) – 6.50 at Cashpoint

Week 32 round-up

Good spots don't always guarantee profit. We had excellent spots this time around, but unfortunately no profit. This means our winning streak comes to an end after 8 consecutive rounds of success. It was bound to happen, but still disappointing in a week with excellent spots. Well, that's life. You can see the spots below. I have added the #Twitbets as those spots were spectacular too, but did not give profit. One round to go. Hope to finish nicely.

Here are the spots of our recommendations. All closing odds are from Bet365 or Unibet (the higher).

AaB-FC Midtjylland 2 (+0) (#Twitbets)

Our pick: 1.90

Closing odds: 1.66

Hobro-Brøndby 1 (+1) (#Twitbets)

Our pick: 1.825

Closing odds: 1.69 (was in 1.50 1 hour before kick-off)

FC Nordsjælland-Viborg 2 (+0) (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.26

Closing odds: 1.80

SønderjyskE-Randers 2 (+0) 

Our pick: 3.20

Closing odds: 2.55

SønderjyskE-Randers 2 (+0) 

Our pick: 3.20

Closing odds: 2.55

Esbjerg-FC Copenhagen 2

Our pick: 1.85

Closing odds: 1.70

Week 32 Superliga previews

AGF-OB

Thursday 25/5 20.00

Not much to play for here. AGF are in good form and really finding the net at the moment. Striker Duncan is really looking dangerous with 7 goals in the last 3 games! The AGF coaching staff has talked about the importance of continuing the good run, and I would not expect them to rest players here. Regular midfielder Bjarnason returns from injury. OB seem to a bit less focused here at the end of the season. They have released midfielder Skulason for international duty, while star offensive player Falk was benched in the last match because he is leaving in the summer window. So the question is how OB will arrive here. I am pretty sure it will be a fine line-up as they are without important injuries and Busuladzic who is banned is only a rotation player. The only question is Falk. It shifts several percentages in favour of OB if he is playing.

I find this fairly difficult to price. It all depends on whether Falk play from the start. If he does, I think 3.50 should be value for the away side. If not, I would want at least 4.00.  I expect goals, but so does the market. I pick AGF based on their strong recent performance, but I think you should look for the OB line-up.

Idea: 1 (AH  -0.5) – 2.12 at Unibet

AaB-FC Midtjylland

Thursday 25/5 20.00

AaB played another very poor match against Esbjerg. They needed a win against one of the poorest clubs, but failed miserably. The players are frustrated as they were dreaming of a title win in the winter break and now probably ends out of European qualification. Four regulars will miss this match. Left back Ahlmann, central midfielder Risgård, league top goalscorer Spalvis and his fellow striker Enevoldsen. All are new absences and AaB are not known for a big squad depth. Furthermore, the last four have scored 37 out of 54 AaB goals this season, and the likely replacement attack of Jönsson and Pohl should not scare FC Midtjylland. FC Midtjylland are not playing particularly well, but they are not performing as poorly as AaB. Another thing is that they seem to have a good attitude at the moment and manages to make comebacks from difficult situations. FC Midtjylland have no important new absences here and should be significantly stronger than AaB. FC Midtjylland also need a win here in order to obtain a 2nd place so they should be motivated.

I already posted a FC Midtjylland win AH +0 at 1.90 as a #Twitbets. I still think there is plenty of value in the away side. I would go as low as 2.25 for the straight win here. I stick to my former #Twitbets.

#Twitbets: 2 (AH +0) – 1.90 at Bet365

Hobro-Brøndby

Thursday 25/5 20.00

Hobro delivered a magnificent effort by beating champions FC Copenhagen 4-2 last weekend. Hobro are relegated and just seem to be enjoying the final moments in the Superliga. Therefore, this final home game should also be a day of celebration. Hobro have several good players, but have lacked team spirit and structure. It seems to be improving and Hobro have been performing better and better throughout 2015. No new absences reported. Brøndby made a performance of poor quality in an important situation last weekend. They needed a win, but failed miserably and also got three suspensions and one injury. So they will be without key central defender Agger, important right back Larsson, rotation midfielers Holst and striker Elmander. Not the best situation as Brøndby already has struggled with injuries. Left back Durmisi returns from ban. Brøndby need points here, but they look fragile and they will be without their most influential players here.

I picked Hobro early as a #Twitbets knowing that Brøndby would be without several players here. Also, Hobro have a good history against Brøndby. The physical Hobro side is certainly not Brøndby’s favourite. The #Twitbets has an excellent spot, and I actually don’t think there is more value left in the home side now. I think the match will see some goals and both teams to score is not a bad choice.

#Twitbets: 1 (AH +1) – 1.825 at Bet365

Idea: BTTS – 1.67 at Unibet

FC Nordsjælland-Viborg

Thursday 25/5 20.00

FC Nordsjælland managed to squander a 3-0 lead with only 20 minutes remaining against AGF. How, they managed to be ahead 3-0 is beyond me, but containing 3 goals show that the young defence has something to work with. FC Nordsjælland seem to be testing some things ahead of next season and they have also accepted offensive ace Emre Mor to leave for international duty. They will also be without veteran winger Mikkelsen and defender Gregor. I expect to see another very young FC Nordsjælland team with several technically gifted players, but they really lack physique. Physique is something that Viborg typically offers. They are defensively solid and very physical in their style. Offensively, they rely on the speedy Deble for counter-attacks. He returns from a ban here, which is important. The same is the case for regular midfielder Grønning. Only negative is the potential absence of central defender and captain Rask who left the last match with an injury.

Nothing at stake here, and I am almost certain that this will be the match with fewest spectators in the round. However, it is always an advantage for FC Nordsjælland to play on their artificial pitch. Despite of this, I think Viborg have some weapons to beat them. They are stronger defensively and have more physique. I think this match should be way more even than the bookies!

Tip of the Week: 2 (DNB) – 2.26 at Cashpoint

SønderjyskE-Randers

Thursday 25/5 20.00

The stadium is set to be packed in order to celebrate the first ever medals for SønderjyskE. But there is still plenty to play for. SønderjyskE need at least 4 points in the last two matches to ensure the silver medals, which would be a spectacular performance. They have done so well this spring. They have really dominated many matches, which is quite uncharacteristic (SOTR of 56% in 2016!). However, a big part of it is also offensive efficiency. They have scored on 41.7% of their shots on target which is the highest in the league (29.4%),  and while it is true than they are better to get shots fired near the goal than most rivals, it is also a scoring rate which will be impossible to retain. The squad situation is good though with no important missings. Randers have nothing to play for. Despite of this, I must admit that I have been fairly impressed by them in 2016 (SOTR of 66%!). They have managed to overcome many off-the-pitch issues and still play very strongly and they have practically dominated very single match played in 2016. They have been unlucky in many matches. Opponent goalies seem to overperform when meeting Randers and the same can be said about opposing strikers. So I like Randers a lot. They have many skilled individuals combined with a solid defensive base. The only question is motivation, but I am pretty sure they will do their best to finish the season nicely for their leaving head coach. Only question is whether Colid Todd will rotate?

SønderjyskE have motivation on their side and although they are playing strongly, I actually see Randers as the better side here. Only concern is the potential rotation of the away side. Will he field his best eleven or allow some other players to get a few minutes here at the end of the season. Well, I am willing to take chance and go for Randers as the odds are simply too high.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) – 3.20 at PartyBets

Esbjerg-FC Copenhagen

Thursday 25/5 20.00

Esbjerg finally got a win after a long streak of disappointments. Esbjerg have been really poor in 2016. Their current position is way below expectations and what would you expect based on salary, but they are simply not performing better and not a matter of being unlucky. My stats currently have them as poorer than Hobro in 2016. One of the reasons is surely a lot of absences. Constant new injuries and bans have really made life difficult. For this match regular striker Schwartz and midfielder Nielsen are injured, while rotation midfielders Rise and Lyng are out too. So forget about consistency. Important midfielders Lekven and Andersen are set to return. FC Copenhagen have been hugely superior in 2016. They are clear and deserved winners and surely have the strongest squad in the league. After winning the title, I think they relaxed a bit too much and suffered an embarrassing loss against Hobro. Despite being without several players (goalkeeper Olsen, defenders Augustinsson and Johansson, midfielder Kusk and striker Cornelius), I still think that the team they can field here should be capable of winning the Danish title. The two very influential midfielders Kvist and Delaney return from ban and I think we will see a much more focused FC Copenhagen team here. On top, they have the deadly duo of Jørgensen and Santander, so they should be able to create danger against an unimpressive Esbjerg defence.

Nothing at stake here, but both teams are playing for honour. I am not at all impressed by Esbjerg and I really expect FC Copenhagen to make a more committed effort here. I pick the away win here.

Recommendation: 2 – 1.85 at Sportingbet

Week 31 round-up

I guess this round proved that Denmark is not Italy. Two teams with all to play for lost to teams with nothing to play for at odds +7. Motivation is certainly not the only factor in the Danish Superliga.

For us, it was a terrible start to the round, but it finished nicely, meaning that we have made profit for 8 consecutive rounds. The Tip of the Week is also finally in profit after a long period with minus. Let's hope it only continues. The spot for our two picks were not impressive. In the case with OB, they fielded a line-up without offensive star Falk which was a bet-killer, so a good reason for the odds rise. With the Tip of the Week, the market initially dropped, but increased on match-day as Brøndby faced an offensive line-up.

Here are the spots of our recommendations. All closing odds are from Bet365 or Unibet (the higher).

SønderjyskE-OB 2

Our pick: 5.05

Closing odds: 5.30

Brøndby-Viborg Under 2.5 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.06

Closing odds: 2.07

Week 31 Superliga preview

I have decided to go against motivation a few times here. I think the market is putting too much into it - it is Denmark, not Italy. Markets like motivation, so I won't be surprised if some of my picks see even higher prices close to kick-off. This is certainly a round, where you have your best chances of making profit by awaiting the line-ups. If some teams are rotating heavily, you might be able to get a good price.

SønderjyskE-OB

Friday 20/5 18.00

This is the easiest remaining match for SønderjyskE and they need a win here to maintain the fantastic 2nd place. Large home support is to be expected! SønderjyskE are playing with big motivation and have a great strategy. The overall quality of their side is nothing spectacular though, why it is impressive that they have not dropped more points. They have managed to win the tight matches and based on my stats, they rank as the luckiest side of 2016. SønderjyskE have defensive issues as injuries for Luijcx, Mussmann and Pereira probably force SønderjyskE to use newly signed Dickoh in the starting line-up. He has been without club for many months so it is clearly an issue, but otherwise they should be able to field the strongest line-up. OB missed out on a chance to join the top runners by being the first team to lose to Hobro in 2016. OB were inefficient, which is quite unusual as the opposite has been the case in 2016. OB have a very strong front line, which should be able to create problems for every opponent. Defensively, they have looked fairly good in 2016, but captain and central defender Jonasson is doubtful here – an issue if he is not playing.

There is a big difference in motivation, but I think that OB have too good a team to get a price around 5 for beating SønderjyskE. OB have won 7 out of 15 away games this season, and they do like to lurk on the counter-attacking opportunities, which they should get here. I have had success with OB several times in the away games this season, and go for it once again here. OB are so boom-or-bust that I don’t like the protection for draw.

Recommendation: 2 – 5.05 at Cashpoint

FC Nordsjælland-AGF

Saturday 21/5 16.00

Fight for 8th position. Who cares? FC Nordsjælland don’t seem to care. They have allowed offensive ace Mor to join the Turkish national team ahead of the Euro 2016, but it leaves the team without offensive power given the injury for John. Fortunately, veteran winger Mikkelsen finally seem to be back from an injury. FC Nordsjælland have many young players, but they have done fairly well this season. AGF have two straight wins (7-1 score) and finally get some points after playing well during 2016. I hold them as a stronger side than FC Nordsjælland, but they have some issues here as regular midfielder Pedersen is out and the same could be the case with fellow midfielder Bjarnason. If that is the case, AGF will lack some strength in the centre of the pitch.

Given FC Nordsjælland’s lack of offensive weapons, I think that AGF deserve to be small favourites here. Unfortunately, the bookies agree with me, so no value to get here. Although the lack of importance could lead to many goals, I think the match-up favours few goals. Therefore, I like the under 2.5 goals here.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.06 at Unibet

Randers-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 22/5 13.00

For me, this is a match between the 2nd best side of 2016 (Randers) against the 2nd best side of the season (FC Midtjylland). Randers have created a lot in 2016. I think they have been the best side in almost every match they have played, but not really got points accordingly. They have solid offensive weapons combined with a strong defence. The defence has only allowed 51 shots in the penalty box in 2016, which is lowest in the league. FC Midtjylland need points here to get a spot in Europe next season. Their performances have been rather inconsistent of late. They do not impress me currently, although I acknowledge that they have a side which in the long-run should perform a lot better than now. FC Midtjylland have a good record against Randers, they have won the last 6 six head-to-head matches.

Randers started to give some other players the chance in the last match. Could Todd do so again here? This frightens me; otherwise I would have liked Randers to win as they have looked strong lately. This is a match, where line-ups are vital. I decide to trust my model, which is screaming draw, although it is result that probably won’t be too satisfying for FC Midtjylland.

Idea: X – 3.40 at Sportingbet

Hobro-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 22/5 16.00

I think Hobro are happy to get this match. They are relegated, so now they are only playing to get some good experiences to finish the season. This will certainly mean fans on the stands. Hobro got their first win of 2016 last weekend. It was lucky, but it should give Hobro some confidence. FC Copenhagen just won the title, so they have been partying. Can they pick up the motivation for this match? They will be without two of the players securing motivation, central midfielders Kvist and Delaney, and they could lack power in the centre of the pitch, and most importantly the influence of two of the most driven players. FC Copenhagen are still far better than Hobro, and they should dominate the match.

It concerns me that FC Copenhagen are playing the first match after winning the title without Delaney and Kvist. Otherwise, I am pretty sure they would be professional and win this easily. Now, it is less certain, but I would still be surprised if FC Copenhagen don’t win this. Surely not a big value pick though.

Idea: 2 – 1.45 at Tipico

AaB-Esbjerg

Sunday 22/5 18.00

Three straight wins are probably needed for AaB if they aim to get into Europe. They start with the easiest match here. AaB have played rather poorly in many matches in 2016. Some players have not been at their best and it is of massive importance for a team like AaB with a strong starting line-up and a weak bench. Risgård has suffered from sickness lately, but should finally be back in the starting line-up, allowing AaB to field the strongest side. Esbjerg have been terrible in 2016. They started of nicely in terms of points, but it was driven by luck. Luck has now faded and Esbjerg are starting to lose. In fact, they have lost the last four matches, and not looked good while doing so. Many injuries are a big reason and although players are starting to return, they need to build some consistency. On paper, they are good players though, and Esbjerg definitely should get more points based on their squad.

I am pretty sure AaB will have the most chances in this match, but the odds for home win are not impressive. Odds above 7 are just way too high for Esbjerg, who would certainly like to finish their abysmal streak. High odds, small stakes: idea pick.

Idea: 2 – 7.10 at Cashpoint

Brøndby-Viborg

Monday 23/5 19.00

The last second winner for Brøndby last weekend could be crucial. Now the road for Europe is wide open and they have a rather easy schedule, but they need a win in a match like this. Brøndby have not impressed me under new head coach Skarbalius. He is making some peculiar decisions and seem to favour physical players with attitude instead of the best player available. The stats suggest that Brøndby are playing with the quality of a mid-table side and this is also my impression. Brøndby will miss out on key left back Durmisi who is banned. Viborg have nothing to play for, but they would surely like to win in Brøndby. I have my doubts as to whether they are capable. They started 2016 strongly, but after picking up injuries to offensive profiles Akharraz and Deble, they started to suffer. Deble has since returned, but he is banned here. Without him, I only think Viborg have winger Kamper as a real offensive threat, and the lack of weapons but extra pressure on a defence that is strong, but not invincible. Adding to this, powerful defensive central midfielder Grønning is banned.

Brøndby should win here given Viborg’s lack of offensive power, but like the match with AaB I think odds are too low for the side with motivation. Instead, I think a low scoring match is a more attractive bet. Brøndby are fairly defensive minded under Skarbalius, while Viborg are without their strongest offensive cards could struggle to find the net. In a week with poor options, this is my Tip of the Week.

Tip of the Week: Under 2.5 goals - 2.06 at Unibet