Week 17 Superliga previews

Viborg-AGF

Viborg are a fairly solid team. They don’t concede a lot of chances, but they have been too poor in front of goal. They rely on the speed of Deble, otherwise they are a team of hard working players. Two key players, centre back Rask and winger Kamper, are in the called squad, but have struggled with minor injuries lately. AGF have played some decent matches, but like Viborg they have struggled in front of goal but actually even more at the back. They don’t give away a lot of chances, but those they concede are fairly big chances. They commit many individual mistakes at the back, which have resulted in many goals conceded this season (AGF hold the lowest saving percentage in the league). Interestingly, the two teams rank lowest on PDO, which is an indicator of unlucky teams: inefficient in front of opponents goal and own goal.

The last two matches between the two have ended in draws. It is no coincidence as the two teams are fairly even and lack power in attack. I expect a cautious match. Under 2.5 goals a possibility although price is fairly low. The risky pick is the draw.

Idea: X – 3.40 at Unibet

Randers-FC Nordsjælland

Randers are struggling at the moment. They used to have a lot of power in attack, but they sold strong striker Brock-Madsen to Birmingham, offloaded fellow striker Fall, Ishak is experiencing a dip in form and although Lundberg started the season strongly, he is no natural goal getter. For this match Ishak is banned, while Lundberg should return from a minor injury. However, bottom line is that Randers should lack force in the front line. The midfield is significantly strengthened with the return of Keller and Poulsen from ban, so Randers should have a good chance of dominating the midfield here. Central defender Tverskov is out with an injury. FC Nordsjælland are so volatile. Normally, they are way stronger at home than away, but this tendency has not been seen this season. FC Nordsjælland will be without Petry in the midfield due to a ban. This means that FC Nordsjælland will field a pretty lightweight midfield, which could face problems against the physical Randers midfield.

Randers have won the last three matches without problems as this usually serves as a nice match-up for them. However, this time around I am concerned with respect to their offensive strength. Do they have what is needed to break down FC Nordsjælland? On the other hand, FC Nordsjælland have some great counter-attacking weapons in Bruninho and Joshua John, but in the past they have often lacked commitment in away matches like this. If forced I would pick the away side here.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.925 at Bet365

UPDATE: Bruninho absent for FC Nordsjælland. He is the offensive key play, so bad news for FC Nordsjælland and the idea pick.

SønderjyskE-Hobro

SønderjyskE are a team of committed players. They put in an impressive work load which often compensates for the quality they might lack. They are strongest in away games as they don’t like to take charge of a match. In four of the last five seasons they have earned more points away than at home! Striker Dalgaard is doubtful, but Bechmann is a fine replacement. SønderjyskE should bring a decent line-up but lack good alternatives on the bench. Hobro just changed head coach. Instead of an unproven temporary head coach, they now have veteran Ove Pedersen, who is own of the most acclaimed head coaches in Denmark. He is really good at making his teams solid at the back, something that Hobro urgently need. Offensively they have some strong players in George and Kirkevold (and Park if he manages to return from injury), but defensively they lack some stability. Midfielder Sane is banned, but he should be replaceable.

Although SønderjyskE won the last head-to-head match 3-0 without problems, I believe that a team that has so many problems in dominating matches should never be 1.70 favourites against a team like Hobro that have the offensive strength to hurt SønderjyskE. And with Ove Pedersen in charge, I would not be surprised to see Hobro in a more competitive version.

Recommendation: 2 (0-1) – 2.30 at Tipico

Brøndby-AaB

Brøndby with a poor display last weekend, but with several of the key players just coming back from internationals it could be a partial explanation. Brøndby have been one of the stronger teams lately, they have really benefitted from the return of veteran Kahlenberg on the midfield and Agger playing consistently in defence. Brøndby are normally a fairly strong home team. AaB have offered some brilliant displays lately. They are exceptional offensively on a good day, but on bad days they are pretty average. They often tend to suffer in away games and things are not easier with the ban for key midfielder Risgård. AaB lack a quality replacement for Risgård and it is of massive importance, since AaB’s success is driven by the passing skills and intelligence of Würtz, Risgård and Thomsen. Without Risgård, they cannot keep the same offensive pace as normally. However, they have the clear league top goalscorer in Spalvis and he is brimming with confidence at the moment.

I suspect Risgårds absence with have massive importance as he is so important due to his footballing skills and also his big influence. The alternatives are nowhere near as good. Brøndby have been playing fairly well lately and should be capable of scoring against an AaB team defence that is not among the best in the league.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.25) – 1.96 at Unibet

FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen

FC Midtjylland are not playing well at the moment. The players seem fatigued by the overall tight schedule as they have to focus on Europa League and Superliga at the same time, while suffering from a number of injuries for important players. The last Europa League match saw striker Duncan and winger Sisto leave with injuries and it is unlikely to see any of them in the starting line-up here. Due to the importance of the match and the number of injuries, FC Midtjylland are unlikely to rotate compared to the match against Legia Warszawa on Thursday. This means that we should see a motivated but probably tired home team. FC Midtjylland were exceptional at home last season, but they have been more ordinary this season, probably due to the focus on more than one tournament. Right back Rømer is injured and this could force FC Midtjylland to use a natural left back instead. FC Copenhagen were poor at home against Viborg last weekend. Without two of the offensive profiles, central midfielder Delaney and striker Santander, FC Copenhagen lacked energy and were unable to create much danger. Santander returns from a ban here, and this should spark some hope for the attack. Delaney is still out, which is bad news for the midfield that is set to be very defensive minded. FC Copenhagen have a fine defence, so they should be pretty solid with a defensive minded midfield in front of them.

This is a vital match in the title race. FC Midtjylland are just aiming to survive until 2016, so they can reload the batteries and have the injured players back, while FC Copenhagen should take advantage of this opportunity and go for the win. This should also explain why FC Copenhagen are favourites against a team 16-0-1 at home last season. This match is very likely to be low scoring and cautious. An idea could be few goals in first half. The last match between the two ended 0-0.

Idea: Under 0.75 goals at half-time – 2.05 at Bet365

OB-Esbjerg

Only Hobro have conceded more shots than OB and Esbjerg this season. At the same time both teams are able to create something offensively. OB have the most dangerous front line, where Falk, Festersen and Zohore can cause problems for every team in the league. Especially Falk is outstanding; he should be destined for a club abroad soon. OB do have problems at the back, where especially goalkeeper Koval is looking more like a circus artist. He can be credited some come conceded goals this season. Esbjerg are shockingly poor at the back. They conceded three goals during the opening 20 minutes at home against Hobro last weekend. The situation is so bad that Esbjerg already have made defensive signings for 2016. Offensively, they have some fine individuals in Söder, Mensah and Bille, but the team is often suffering from players acting individually. Esbjerg will still be without the banned defender Stenderup, so no signs of defensive improvement here.

I think OB have more offensive strength than Esbjerg and that should be the difference here. Just considering Falk vs. the Esbjerg back line most concern head coach Dal deeply. Goals should be in the cards here as Esbjerg are unlikely to leave Odense without scoring.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.10 at Bet365

Idea: Over 2.75 goals – 2.00 at Bet365

Week 16 round-up

A good round with a terrific ending as Spalvis sealed the 5th consecutive win for the Tip of the Week with a goal in minute 95. Lucky in terms of the timing, but AaB had several big chances to win and waited until the very last opportunity to take the win. Also some success for the recommendations, but sadly we also missed a great idea bet in the dying seconds as Hobro dropped a 4-1 lead after 60 minutes to concede the equaliser in minute 93. Second time this season that a very late goal by Esbjerg against Hobro costs high odds picks (this time odds 6). However, as long as the recommendations are on track, I am satisfied.

Week 16 Superliga previews

OB-FC Midtjylland

OB are great in attack, poor at the back. Are they strong enough offensively to score against FC Midtjylland – it is likely with players as Festersen and Falk. OB have no important absences for this match, but they still suffer from a poor defence and a shaky goalkeeper. FC Midtjylland, defending champions, have suffered from several injuries this season due to a tight schedule. Now they have had a week off, so the overall fitness should be better. Strong centre-back Sviatchenko returns from ban, while star winger Sisto is back in the squad after suffering from injury. Sisto is still doubtful and unlikely to play a full match. FC Midtjylland should be able to field a fairly strong team. They are very strong in the centre of the pitch (central defence, midfield and striker) and should be able to dominate the match.

OB are really up and down. The last home match against Brøndby ended 2-5 and it just shows that their defence can really suffer against a good opponent. FC Midtjylland should have good chances here as they should be fresher than seen in the past round, but I must admin OB have the offensive firepower to hurt them.

Idea: 2 – 2.10 at Danske Spil

FC Nordsjælland-SønderjyskE

FC Nordsjælland are one of the most instable teams. It is kind of an all-or-nothing team, sometimes they are really good and sometimes they look like the worst team in the league. FC Nordsjælland rely on some technically gifted midfielders and a strong striker in Bruninho. SønderjyskE have a range of bad results lately. I don’t think they have been bad, perhaps just a bit unlucky. They will benefit from the return of Guira and Absalonsen to the midfield, both vital players. Some injury doubts as to right back Pedersen. SønderjyskE are typically stronger away than at home for the reason that they really tend to perform when allowed sitting back and counter-attack. With strikers like Dalgaard and Bechmann on top they have some weapons that don’t need a lot of chances to score.

Odds have already dropped on the away side. For good reason as it is a good type of match for them. However, 3.25 is not spectacular for an away win. Instead, I would go for an over match here. The teams have a tendency of playing some spectacular head-to-heads and together they have crossed the line in 19 out of 30 matches this season.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.05 at Bet365

Esbjerg-Hobro

Esbjerg have been really poor this season. Only Hobro have conceded as many goals, which shows that the back line is abysmal. Central defender Stenderup and right back Laursen miss the match, which is not making matters better. Offensively, there is still plenty to work with, but players like Nicki Bille, Mensah, Paulsen and Söder are all capable of finding the net. Hobro are undoubtedly the worst team in the league and they should go down. However, if they are to avoid that they need something in a match like this. They have been good against Esbjerg in recent head-to-heads, since Esbjerg hate the physical strength of Hobro’s hard working players. Hobro have had a lot of injuries, but should have some of the best offensive cards available in Kirkevold, George and maybe also Park. If that is the case, Esbjerg will struggle to get a clean sheet.

Although it is frightening that Hobro got smashed 6-0 in Aalborg, I don’t see Esbjerg doing the same thing to Hobro here. Hobro have a fine chance of getting something here and they might even snatch a surprise win if things are really working as I have problems seeing Esbjerg’s backline containing the Hobro strikers.

Recommendation: Both teams to score – 1.85 at Nordicbet

Idea: 2 – 6.00 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-Viborg

FC Copenhagen have been looking really good lately earning four wins in the last five matches. Offensively they have looked very strong and defensively, they are just a solid team, why they are also the team conceding fewest goals in the league. They play an organised 4-4-2, which is really difficult to break down. However, they are without two of the more important players here. Central midfielder Delaney is injured, while striker Santander is banned. Central defender Antonsson is injured, so FC Copenhagen might be forced to change quite a few things here, which could hurt the consistency which they have benefitted from lately. Viborg have done fairly well this season considering that they are a promoted club. Based on SoTR they are an average team with a poor scoring percentage. Viborg suffered in the last match as striker Deble was banned. Without him they lack an offensive player capable of making the extraordinary and thereby creating space for the others. He returns from ban here. Apart from this Viborg should be able to field a defensively solid team that almost managed to get a draw in the similar match a month ago (1-0).

FC Copenhagen without several players facing a compact Viborg. This could be difficult for the home team, although they will probably win. But even if they win, they are not a team that tend to go all-in for big wins.

Idea: 2 (AH +1.25) – 1.925 at Bet365

AGF-Brøndby

AGF have only won one of the last ten matches. Not impressive – they play decent football at the times, but it lacks end product. There are many inconsistent players and the defence is not compelling. Especially goalkeeper Rasmussen, who has the lowest saving rate in the league, is a weak point. This is one of the big games in Aarhus, so a strong support from the stands is expected. Brøndby have experienced quite a makeover after starting the season miserably. The return of Kahlenberg combined with the signing of Austin has really improved the central midfield. At the same time, Brøndby are starting to look stronger at the back as talismanic Agger has been playing regularly for a longer period.

AGF have looked decent at own pitch during this season, but they will find it difficult to break down Brøndby’s backline here. Brøndby should be able to hurt AGF’s weak defence and I actually think the price is fine in a situation where we get half the money back in case of a draw.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.925 at Bet365

AaB-Randers

AaB have been spectacular in the last home games. The last three matches have ended in wins with a score of 15-1! When AaB get the play going at home, they are an unstoppable force. Consistency is also a big part. The integral midfielders Würtz, Risgård and Thomsen have been playing a lot of matches together, while the return of Spalvis (current league top goalscorer) has given them a true goal getter to assist. Randers are a known as a well organised and defensively solid team. This season they have struggled a bit offensively as key striker Ishak has not been at his best. Randers will be without both central midfielders (Poulsen and captain Keller) here due to bans, which is really bad news as Randers never rotate in these positions, so no quality replacements emerge. Therefore Randers will have to try something different, perhaps moving a central defender to the midfield. In any case, it will be difficult for them to win the midfield battle and contain the strong AaB midfield. However, Randers will find some comfort in the 2-0 win in Aalborg in August.

The midfield absences for Randers are really vital, and against a AaB team brimming with confidence, it will be really difficult to take something from here. I consider the home win a really fine bet and actually expected to see a price around 1.80 given the Randers absences.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.925 at Bet365

Week 15 round-up

A fine weekend with full house for the two recommendations of the round. For the forth week in the row, the Tip of the Week was successful. Again it was a fairly certain win as FC Midtjylland won 5-1 against Esbjerg. The #Twitbets were not successful this weekend, which was disappointing. However, it was high risk bets, so losses were likely. We hope to continue our good performance with the recommendations in the next round. You will have to wait as there is a break for internationals next week (go Denmark!).

Week 15 Superliga previews

SønderjyskE-AaB
SønderjyskE played a quite poor match in Aarhus, where they failed to register a single shot on goal. Despite of this, they earned 0-0 due to a strong back line (and a rather toothless AGF attack). SønderjyskE are so committed defensively, it is really impressive to see how they are instantly back home to defend in case they lose the ball. Overall, I think they lack quality, but they get a lot of results from good defending and strong finishing from the strikers Dalgaard and Bechmann. For this match, SønderjyskE have some problems as two vital players are banned: winger Absalonsen (tied team top goalscorer) and defensive midfielder Guira. On the plus side is the return of fellow midfielder Drachmann from ban. AaB are in great form at the moment and they hammered Hobro 6-0 last weekend. They are playing without injuries for key players and it is really good for the consistency. AaB are known for their very dynamic attacking play and it seems to be working really well at the moment. Left back Ahlmann is set to miss the match, but he has not been a regular starter this season.

SønderjyskE without some key players (in a thin squad) and not in the best form against AaB who are in great form and with a strong eleven. This look like an obvious away bet, and although the market has already moved, I think there is still a bit of value left.

Recommendation: 2 (AH -0.25) - 2.025 at Bet365

Randers-AGF
Randers have not had the best start to the season. In my opinion, the team should only be stronger compared to last season, but so far the results has not been more than average. Randers have suffered from the lack of success for striker Ishak, who was the team top goalscorer last season. The obvious alternative Brock-Madsen is now sitting on the bench in Birmingham, so Randers will have to wait for better days to arrive. Randers will be without the strong central defender Fenger, but they have a good alternative available. Randers will arrive with the usual 4-4-2 formation, and it will be interesting to see if they will try to take possession or lurk on counter-attacks. AGF are based on SoTR the 3rd best team in the league. I have a feeling the high score could be due to AGF having a number of players who like to shoot from the distance. This could also explain that AGF have the league lowest scoring percentage. However, that they have the league's worst saving percentage is probably more due to poor goaltending and a rather erratic defense. AGF should have a full squad to choose from here, but despite of this they are likely to face problems in attack, since they lack a quality striker.

Two mid-table teams that are struggling a bit at the moment. It is also a derby. In other words, it is likely to be a quite intense match. Looking at recent odds, you rarely get more than odds 2.00 for a Randers home win against an average team. To a comparison, the price for Randers victory away against AGF earlier this season where odds ended around 2.30 (a match Randers dominated heavily until receiving two red cards). Therefore, the home pick seems reasonable here, although I am slightly concerned due to the inefficiency of the Randers attack.

Idea: 1 - 2.05 at Sportingbet

Hobro-FC Nordsjælland
Hobro are in a really bad position and the 6-0 humiliation against AaB last weekend did not leave much room for optimism. Hobro had several absences, which made it very difficult. There will be a slight improvement this week as strong defensive midfielder Jonas Damborg returns. Hobro have also called up important offensive players Park and George, but it would be a surprise to see any of them in the starting line-up here. Without them Hobro lack some offensive power and much pressure on the shoulders of Kirkevold. Left back Tamboura is banned, and it is unsure whether the obvious alternative Tjørnelund is able to replace him. FC Nordsjælland are very volatile in the performances. If anything, they are significantly stronger on own pitch rather than on away games, where they sometimes seem indifferent. FC Nordsjælland have a team with many technically gifted players, where especially Bruninho has the ability to hurt the slow Hobro defence. They visited Hobro earlier the season and won 3-1 in a match they dominated.

Both teams have one thing in common: they play matches with a lot of goals (both teams have been over the line in the last four matches). Therefore, I am a bit surprised to see over being the underdog here. Both teams will go for the win here, and this could give us an entertaining match. The price for home win is quite big, but I think it is justified given the probable absences of Park and George and given how the last head-to-head match 2 months ago turned out. Only an idea pick for over as Hobro could struggle offensively given their missing players.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals - 2.02 at Unibet

Viborg-OB
Viborg have performed fairly well this season, but have just lacked some efficiency. They found it in the last two matches, which led to two impressive 4-2 wins against Esbjerg and FC Midtjylland.  Viborg have a strong defensive organisation and some skilled offensive players in Akharraz, Kamper and Deble. Unfortunately, the speedy striker Deble is injured here, which will surely hurt Viborg's attack as he draws a lot of attention (and he was also just starting to find goalscoring form). In the absence of Deble, Viborg might select to use a midfielder alongside Curth in attack. If you like goals, you should just watch matches with OB as their matches have the highest number of goals per game in the league. This is due to two things: one of strongest attacks in the league and one of the weakest defences. Evaluated on OB's season, having a good defence seems to be a bigger driver to earning points than a good attack as OB have won 5 and lost 7. But you never know with OB as they have the offensive strength to hurt anyone in the league, while goalkeeper Koval can make some outstanding saves but also let in the most simple goals. OB should benefit from the return of midfielder El Makrini from ban. Right back Lund will miss the match, but this could give a spot to Desler who has just returned from a longer injury period. Desler was a key player for OB last season.

Viborg will probably suffer offensively from the absence of Deble. On the other hand OB should have the offensive strength to make something happen against Viborg. Although I am really concerned about the OB back line, I would not make Viborg this big favorites without their best offensive player. Going for gold here as I don't think it is worthwhile to have draw insurance due to the volatility of OB.

Idea: 2 - 3.45 at Cashpoint

FC Midtjylland-Esbjerg
The defending champions are experiencing a bad period. They have lost the last five matches (including two league losses and two losses to Napoli in the Europa League). A number of injuries have led to some inconsistency in the team, but overall I still believe that the team they can field is fairly strong. Naturally, it is a problem with Europa League in Napoli in Thursday and this should have a negative influence. The absence of central defender Sviatchenko is also bad news although Banggaard is a decent replacement. FC Midtjylland overperformed at the start of the season - the number of conceded goals was very low compared to the number of shots conceded - and it is only natural that that could not continue. However, the last few losses have also been due to some very efficient opponents (for instance, Viborg scored 4 goals with 4 shots on target) and I would not be too quick to conclude that FC Midtjylland are suddenly not a quality team despite of the recent losses. Esbjerg got a hugely important win against FC Nordsjælland last weekend (with some help from the referee). They have been poor this season, and relegation was starting to become a serious threat. The win gave some air and some confidence, but the overall impression is still not good. They have a team with fairly many fine individual players, but they need to start working together as a team. The defence is also concerningly poor and the likely absence of central defender Jakobsen is not comforting.

FC Midtjylland could be affected mentally and physically by the tight schedule and poor results. However, seeing a team that was 16-0-1 at home last season and 5-1-2 this season not being clearer favorites against a rather poor Esbjerg team (who also have a concerning head-to-head history when visiting FC Midtjylland) is somewhat surprising. This is the Tip of the Week bet, although I must admit that I don't see this as a big value pick.

Tip of the Week: 1 - 1.85 at Sportingbet

Brøndby-FC Copenhagen
Derby day in Copenhagen. A home win can really open up the championship fight. Brøndby have been performing well lately after a very poor start to the season. The return of Kahlenberg has surely been a catalyst recently as he gives the midfield some extra vision. Brøndby have a number of quality players, but also some weaknesses, especially on the flanks where they lack some top-level players. Brøndby are without absences. FC Copenhagen have won the last four matches and looked stronger and stronger for every match. They are also without important injuries which is really helping them find consistency. Furthermore, winger Kusk is starting to show some of the quality which made him an integral part of AaB's title winning team two seasons ago. This is important for FC Copenhagen since they have sometimes been a bit one-dimensionally in attack with pressure mainly on Jørgensen to succeed. Defensively, FC Copenhagen are rock solid and together with FC Midtjylland they have conceded the least shots this season (138 - Brøndby to comparison: 174).

The two teams met around a month ago with line-ups very close to the ones expected tomorrow. Brøndby won 1-0 in a fairly even match (match played in Brøndby). The closing odds at Bet365 were 3.60-3.30-2.05. Now they offer 3.00-3.40-2.30. It seems like a logical odds move given the outcome of the last match. Despite of the even nature of the last match, I still believe that FC Copenhagen should dominate most matches. I regard the odds movement as a bit too strong and go for the away side here.

Idea: 2 - 2.45 at Nordicbet

Week 14 round-up

Not overall surplus, but our only recommendation of the week, the Tip of the Week headed home without problems as AaB won 6-0 against Hobro. In terms of the ideas, we had 2 wins out of 5 - especially the Viborg win against FC Midtjylland came as a surprise. #Twitbets was not as successful as usual with one push and one lost bet.