Week 16 Superliga round-ups

Excellent round. 6 for 8. +3.30 units. Had 2 recommendations that both won. Both had significantly lower closing odds, which is a good indicator for a value pick. Season is now sitting on +14% yield total and +31% yield on all recommendations. Now we are off to internationals, I might have some news during the coming week though.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

AGF-Silkeborg 2 +0.5 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.08

Closing odds: 1.85

Randers-FC Nordsjælland 1

Our pick: 1.90

Closing odds: 1.77

Week 15 Superliga round-ups

The winning streak ended after four winning rounds. However, if you are only here for the recommendations, it was an excellent round with both winning. It has been an excellent season for all recommendations: yield is at +28%! We had one very good spot for the weekend, while the Tip of the Week eventually increased a bit in odds. The ideas had mainly dropping odds too, so seem to be ahead of the market with the picks.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

FC Nordsjælland-Viborg 1 -0.25

Our pick: 2.09

Closing odds: 1.88

FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen 2 +0 (TOTW)

Our pick: 1.64

Closing odds: 1.65

Week 14 round-up

Another profitable round - 4th in a row. Yield for the season is 15%, so it is going really well. Annoyed by the lack of success for the Tip of the Week lately (no winner in the last five rounds), and it needs to turn around soon. Success this week mainly for the ideas, which is not where you ideally want the success - but it has been a terrific season for the recommendations so we can't complain after one poor week. Excellent spots for the recommendations this week despite the limited success. Decided to post bets a bit earlier and it is without a doubt easier to beat the market, but also means that less will be able to follow the bets at the best prices. Dilemma.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Viborg-Silkeborg 2 +0.5

Our pick: 2.10

Closing odds: 1.85

Lyngby-SønderjyskE 2 +0 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.21

Closing odds: 2.19

Horsens-Randers 2 -0.25

Our pick: 1.95

Closing odds: 1.88

OB-FC Copenhagen Under 2.5

Our pick: 2.12

Closing odds: 1.93

Week 13 round-up

A fine round with more than 3 units of profit. 5 wins, 1 push and 1 loss. Sadly, the Tip of the Week was a push, although Lyngby were 2-0 up at half-time, but two goals from set pieces made the match end in a draw. We had a really good spot here though. The Tip of the Week is not on having a good streak at the moment (4 rounds without a win). However, the situation for the recommendations are excellent (both won here), while the idea picks are back in profit for the season. Overall, the situation is excellent: +15% yield for the season and +5% all-time. Below you will find the spots of our recommendations: 2/3 had a price drop, which is fine.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

AGF-Horsens 2 +0.5

Our pick: 2.07

Closing odds: 2.16

FC Copenhagen-Silkeborg -1.5

Our pick: 1.67

Closing odds: 1.65

Esbjerg-Lyngby 2 +0 (TOTW)

Our pick: 1.79

Closing odds: 1.66

Week 12 round-ups

Excellent round if you only follow our ideas - 5 bets and 5 wins. The more important picks were not as good with the Tip of the Week failing and experiencing rising odds. I think, it was an overreaction to the absence of Rafael van der Vaart missing, but FC Midtjylland eventually played a disappointing match. However, important to note that Lyngby scored on the only attempt on target - a stunning long range shot, so we were not lucky either. Other recommendations were fine with one of them winning and experiencing a good odds drop (the other were void with same closing odds). We had our first #Twitbets of the season, but it failed as AGF were too inefficient against OB (I think they were a bit better). In total, Superligabets have now received +40 units all-time!

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Silkeborg-FC Nordsjælland 2 +0

Our pick: 2.18

Closing odds: 2.18

Lyngby-FC Midtjylland 2 -0.5 (TOTW)

Our pick: 1.97

Closing odds: 2.17

Viborg-FC Copenhagen 1 +1.25

Our pick: 1.79

Closing odds: 1.66

Week 11 round-up

Slim profit for the round, but it was actually excellent when looking at the spots. All three recommendations had significantly lower odds, which is a good signal for long-term profit. The Tip of the Week failed miserably as Randers performed poorly and conceded an early red card too. The other two recommendations won safely. I hope you enjoy the picks! If so, likes, RT's and feedback is always appreciated!

Overall, the season is looking solid with a +11% yield.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Randers-SønderjyskE 1 -0.5 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.13

Closing odds: 1.97

Brøndby-OB 1 -1

Our pick: 2.09

Closing odds: 1.82

FC Nordsjælland-Esbjerg 1 -0.25

Our pick: 2.02

Closing odds: 1.85

Week 10 round-up

A slightly disappointing round looking at the outcome. We had great spots for the recommendations, but only one succeeded. Based on the matches, I think we can be disappointed. Brøndby dominated Lyngby and won the shots on target statistic 10-1, but failed to find the net due to poor finishing and a super effort by Lyngby keeper Hansen. Viborg were only slightly weaker than AaB and could easily have earned points. Well, nothing to do about that. In the long-run we should profit with spots like this. Only a short break this time around. Next match is on Saturday, so next previews expected tomorrow.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Randers-FC Copenhagen 1 +1

Our pick: 1.88

Closing odds: 1.65

AaB-Viborg 2 +0.5

Our pick: 1.87

Closing odds: 1.66

Lyngby-Brøndby 2 (TOTW)

Our pick: 1.85

Closing odds: 1.80

Week 9 round-up

Another round with positive profits. Also nice to see 3 out of 4 wins for the recommendations including Tip of the Week. Sadly, the Tip of the Week was the only bet experiencing rising odds. Initially, the odds dropped, but on game day the odds kicked-up to a very high level. I think closing odds are generally correct, but in this case, I think the market evaluated the match wrong. I know it is easier to write this, when the bet won, but still.. Another case where I disagreed with closing odds was Lyngby-AaB, where the home side eventually turned out to be favorites after a massive closing movement. I also think this was too much - even though Lyngby won. Well, enough about strange closing odds. Overall, the season is going great - +15% yield and +10 units. Not bad when betting on all matches! I do enjoy feedback, so please do like or retweet my picks if you find them helpful/profitable.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Silkeborg-AGF 2

Our pick: 2.13

Closing odds: 2.00

FC Nordsjælland-SønderjyskE 2 +0 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.00

Closing odds: 2.12

Horsens-FC Copenhagen Horsens u/0.5

Our pick: 2.10

Closing odds: Not publicly available but was lower the last time I checked

Lyngby-AaB +0 1

Our pick: 2.48

Closing odds. 1.90

Week 8 round-up

A decent round. We continue to have good success with the Tip of the Week as Brøndby deservedly beat AaB. Our other recommendation between was not as successful as SønderjyskE-Silkeborg ended 2-2, despite a 0-0 result after 60 minutes. Annoying, but closing odds suggest that this was not a good bet. Still need to work on the over/under part - often find it a bit more challenging than the 1X2 market. There was good movement on the ToTW-bet and it was also the case for most of our ideas. I hope you noticed our advice to back Horsens before kick-off despite the idea on Viborg to win. The price moved a lot and also too much, which Horsens "proved" by winning. So 8 rounds in we are at +9 units and a +15% yield. Excellent start to the season and we can only hope it continues.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

SønderjyskE-Silkeborg u/2.75

Our pick: 1.86

Closing odds: 1.91

AaB-Brøndby 2 +0 (TOTW)

Our pick: 1.90

Closing odds: 1.81

Week 7 round-up

A good win if you look at the results. If you look at the matches won, we were actually really lucky. Lyngby deserved to win against FC Nordsjælland, but Nordsjælland had the marginals that Lyngby had in the first matches. AaB had a moment of brilliance in an otherwise pretty even match against AGF and finally FC Copenhagen were not as superior against Brøndby as expected. However, the weekend ended with two successful recommendations and a push for the Tip of the Week. This is however I weekend to remember for next week, where some great picks probably fail. That is betting. Not good spots this time around. Nordsjælland had dropped initially, but closing marked seem to disagree with me. Copenhagen were a good pick according to the market, while AaB ended up being a really bad pick. AaB were lining up worse than expected due to injuries, while AGF found a good solution for the defensive issues.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Lyngby-FC Nordsjælland 2 +0

Our pick: 2.33

Closing odds: 2.37

Brøndby-FC Copenhagen 2 +0 (TOTW)

Our pick: 1.73

Closing odds: 1.62

AaB-AGF 1

Our pick: 1.88

Closing odds: 2.13

Week 6 round-up

Pretty good weekend for the recommendations, not so good if you count in the three missed ideas. However, the main aim is to make the recommendations profitable and they were. Horsens won an even encounter against Lyngby to make the Tip of the Week a winner. It has been a really good season for the Tip of the Week and the other recommendations. Let us hope it continues, but the fundamental stats are good as around 3/4 of all our recommendations have had lower closing odds (also the case this week), something that is essential if you want to beat the market in a fairly liquid market like the Danish Superliga.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

FC Nordsjælland-Randers 2

Our pick: 2.10

Closing odds: 2.14

Horsens-Lyngby 1 +0.25 (TOTW)

Our pick: 1.88

Closing odds: 1.72

Silkeborg-Viborg 2 -0.25

Our pick: 1.99

Closing odds: 1.93

Esbjerg-OB 1 +0.5

Our pick: 1.81

Closing odds: 1.65

Week 5 round-up

Week 5 was the first round of the season without profit. Unfortunately, you can't make profit every week. We had good spots, so the picks seemed to be good from that perspective, but some of the matches turned out differently. I was particularly disappointed about SønderjyskE, but they were hampered by late absences (Kroon and Bechmann), while I expected Viborg to do more, but they were also hampered by a late absence for vital winger Kamper. That is how it is with picks before the match day.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Viborg-Randers 1 +0 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.10

Closing odds: 2.02

Lyngby-AGF 2 +0

Our pick: 2.17

Closing odds: 2.16

OB-FC Nordsjælland 1

Our pick: 1.75

Closing odds: 1.57

Brøndby-SønderjyskE 2 +0.75

Our pick: 1.88

Closing odds: 1.83

Week 3 and 4 round-up

Week 3 was excellent with both recommendations winning. Ideas were not as good, but they surely picked up in the following round with good return. Week 4 was not as good in terms of recommendations, and the FC Midtjylland bet actually proved to be bad as FC Midtjylland lined up weaker than expected - also leaving us with a worse betting odds than the closing odds. However, the other recommendations had falling odds, so this suggest that we otherwise made correct calls. We hope you enjoy our bets - feedback is appreciated!

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Week 3

SønderjyskE-Lyngby 2 +0.5 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.06

Closing odds: 1.88

AGF-Randers Over 2.5

Our pick: 2.25

Closing odds: 2.22

Week 4

FC Midtjylland-Brøndby 1 -0.25

Our pick: 1.87

Closing odds: 1.96

Esbjerg-AGF 2 +0

Our pick: 1.74

Closing odds: 1.51

Week 2 round-up

Another excellent round for us. Only two goals from hitting all seven picks for the round, but we had to settle for five wins. Tip of the Week was once again an excellent pick. Hopefully, this only continues onto the next rounds. For the next two rounds previews will probably be shorter as I am on holiday, but I will try to find time to make some suggestions.


Here are the spots of our recommendations. We had three picks with dropping odds, while odds for AGF increased pretty significantly just before kick-off, possibly with the knowledge of a last-minute injury to an AGF defender:

AGF-Viborg 1

Our pick: 2.00

Closing odds: 2.13

Esbjerg-FC Copenhagen 2

Our pick: 1.58

Closing odds: 1.50

Lyngby-OB 2

Our pick: 2.50

Closing odds: 2.36

Silkeborg-Brøndby 2 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.24

Closing odds: 2.05

Week 1 round-up

Great start to the season with all three recommendations being successful. Hopefully, we can just continue delivering profit round after round this season. As last season, I will continue to write down to closing odds as it is usually assumed to be closest to the true price. Sadly, the Tip of the Week did not have closing odds, which annoys me. However, I think the match showed that the market got it wrong as FC Nordsjælland smashed Viborg 4-0. Opening round uncertainty, I guess.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Viborg-FC Nordsjælland 2 (+0.25) (TOTW)

Our pick: 1.93

Closing odds: 2.00

FC Copenhagen-Lyngby (Lyngby u/ 0.5)

Our pick: 1.93

Closing odds: Not available

Brøndby-Esbjerg Over 2.5

Our pick: 2.01

Closing odds: 1.88

Week 33 round-up (end of season)

Season is over. We ended with a small minus for the round, but both recommendation picks were successful. I have added the 3 season bets to the #Twitbets section. Only one was successful (FC Copenhagen to win at 1.55), while AaB in top 3 failed and the same was the case for AGF to finish higher than FC Nordsjælland, although this was a win until 5 minutes remained of the season. Overall, it wraps up a solid season for Superligabets. We finish with +8% return for the season, which is excellent. Only minus is the way this profit arrived. Tip of the Week was excellent, but the other recommendations were quite bad, and the season was mostly saved by some great idea picks. I hope that I can hit the same yield next season, but hopefully with the success being primarily on the recommendations. Still, I think it is a great feat delivering profit while betting on every single Superliga match and not just a selected few.

I hope you enjoyed following the blog throughout the season and hopefully you turned it into making a profit.

Finally, as something new I started posting the betting and closing odds on all our recommendations in 2016. Here is the wrap up combined with the betting and closing odds for this round (again we had an excellent spot):

Here are the spots of our recommendations. All closing odds are from Bet365 or Unibet (the higher).

Brøndby-SønderjyskE 2 (+0.25)

Our pick: 1.875

Closing odds: 1.70

Goalscorer bet on Santander not included due to being a special market

Here is an overview of the recommendations from 2016 (including #Twitbets on AH or 1X2):

Odds dropped: 34 (77%)

Odds the same: 2 (5%)

Odds increased: 8 (18%)

Week 32 round-up

Good spots don't always guarantee profit. We had excellent spots this time around, but unfortunately no profit. This means our winning streak comes to an end after 8 consecutive rounds of success. It was bound to happen, but still disappointing in a week with excellent spots. Well, that's life. You can see the spots below. I have added the #Twitbets as those spots were spectacular too, but did not give profit. One round to go. Hope to finish nicely.

Here are the spots of our recommendations. All closing odds are from Bet365 or Unibet (the higher).

AaB-FC Midtjylland 2 (+0) (#Twitbets)

Our pick: 1.90

Closing odds: 1.66

Hobro-Brøndby 1 (+1) (#Twitbets)

Our pick: 1.825

Closing odds: 1.69 (was in 1.50 1 hour before kick-off)

FC Nordsjælland-Viborg 2 (+0) (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.26

Closing odds: 1.80

SønderjyskE-Randers 2 (+0) 

Our pick: 3.20

Closing odds: 2.55

SønderjyskE-Randers 2 (+0) 

Our pick: 3.20

Closing odds: 2.55

Esbjerg-FC Copenhagen 2

Our pick: 1.85

Closing odds: 1.70

Week 31 round-up

I guess this round proved that Denmark is not Italy. Two teams with all to play for lost to teams with nothing to play for at odds +7. Motivation is certainly not the only factor in the Danish Superliga.

For us, it was a terrible start to the round, but it finished nicely, meaning that we have made profit for 8 consecutive rounds. The Tip of the Week is also finally in profit after a long period with minus. Let's hope it only continues. The spot for our two picks were not impressive. In the case with OB, they fielded a line-up without offensive star Falk which was a bet-killer, so a good reason for the odds rise. With the Tip of the Week, the market initially dropped, but increased on match-day as Brøndby faced an offensive line-up.

Here are the spots of our recommendations. All closing odds are from Bet365 or Unibet (the higher).

SønderjyskE-OB 2

Our pick: 5.05

Closing odds: 5.30

Brøndby-Viborg Under 2.5 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.06

Closing odds: 2.07

Week 29-30 round-up

Two strong rounds. Round 29 finished with a decent plus, while round 30 ended in a big plus with only one bet missing out. We are having a good round currently. Spots are generally good and results are also great. It is mainly driven by the idea picks which have been off the chart this season. Ideally, we would have this plus on the recommendations, but we are not working with a big sample so things like that can happen. In the long-run we should expect to be stronger on the recommendations and weaker on the idea picks.

As you can see below we had some excellent spots. 5 out 6 recommendations had significant odds drops, while the remaining, our Tip of the Week in round 30, had rising odds. There were some information after the preview which shifted the market a bit, although I must admit I had a different interpretation of the match than the market - and it happened to be right.

Here are the spots of our recommendations. All closing odds are from Bet365 or Unibet (the higher).

Round 29:

Hobro-FC Midtjylland 2

Our pick: 1.50

Closing odds: 1.36

FC Nordsjælland-OB 2

Our pick: 2.90

Closing odds: 2.50

Randers-Brøndby 1 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.40

Closing odds: 2.06

AaB-FC Copenhagen 1 (+0)

Our pick: 2.35

Closing odds: 2.18

Round 30:

FC Midtjylland-SønderjyskE 2 (+0.5)

Our pick: 2.00

Closing odds: 1.925

AGF-AaB 1 (+0.25)

Our pick: 1.90

Closing odds: 2.06

Week 28 round-up

Another decent round. The Tip of the Week was successful and the same was the case for one of the recommendations. The ideas were also continuously good, and we had the 5th consecutive round with a surplus. Let's see if we can continue. There is a midweek round in this round. Time is sparse so previews will be of a rather short length. Two recommendations with falling odds this time, but sadly also one with odds rising.

Here are the spots of our recommendations. All closing odds are from Bet365 or Unibet (the higher).

Viborg-AaB (-0.25) 2 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.00

Closing odds: 1.95

OB-FC Copenhagen Under 2.5

Our pick: 1.95

Closing odds: 1.83

FC Midtjylland-AGF (-1.5) 1

Our pick: 2.45

Closing odds: 2.48