Week 12 Superliga previews

OB-AGF
Friday 30/9 18.00

OB are in a poor state. They have lost six league matches in a row and not scored in the last five matches. OB have been poor, they have allowed many chances and not created as much as you would expect, but the fact that they have not scored is ridiculous. They have had 44 attempts in the penalty box in the last five matches and from that you should expect 7 goals scored on average. So luck is certainly one thing to blame here. OB have also suffered under many absences, but there is positive news here. Strong midfielder Makrini is back from ban. Left back Barrett returns from injury and the same is the case with key striker Jacobsen. However, Jacobsen playing from the start is uncertain. AGF suffered the expected loss against FC Copenhagen. Apart from that, their form has been improving. They were very strong against FC Midtjylland, but they suffer from the lack of quality in the goal and they consistently produce lower saving rates than the other teams. It makes life difficult for AGF, since they need even more chances than the opponent on average to take wins. AGF have struggled with some midfield injuries, but they could be on the way back with Olsen the most probable player to return here.

A match between two teams that have struggled to earn points lately. Both have higher ambitions than the current positions and both should be aiming for a win here. History shows that these teams often play matches with many goals (9 out of last 10 head-to-head league games have had more than 2.5 goals) and this could be the case here too. I don’t take OB’s lack of scoring so serious as they are still producing a good number of opportunities, while AGF consistently have a lower saving rate than other teams. So, I would pick the over here.

Idea: Over 2.75 goals – 2.17 at SBOBet

Silkeborg-FC Nordsjælland

Friday 30/9 20.15

Silkeborg are looking strong at the moment and have not lost in the last four matches. I recently claimed that Silkeborg was the weakest side in the league, but now I have started to doubt that. They have really improved their production with the return of Skov from injury, while the new signings Moro and Helenius are raising the bar. Silkeborg won deservedly against AaB on Monday and this proves that they have a lot of quality. Silkeborg mostly rely on commitment and organisation, but they have some individuals like Skov and Skhirtladze that can create something on their own. FC Nordsjælland are another team that has started to improve. They won easily against Esbjerg and you should not underestimate what confidence can do for this young team. They have something to build on and with the return of left back Pedersen, they are getting close to the best starting eleven. I am still not too excited about their central midfield, which I believe is too weak and often risk getting dominated (especially away from home). The attack is looking interesting though, striker Ingvartsen is in great shape and the speedy Asante can punish if the opponents leave too much space behind the defenders. FC Nordsjælland take way too many low quality shots from the distance, and this should be a focal point.

Both sides are optimistic ahead of this match and will go for a win. Maybe, my perception of Silkeborg is still lagging, but I think FC Nordsjælland could be a difficult task for them. Silkeborg don’t have a strong defence and against the offensive speed of FC Nordsjælland, they could get problems. Silkeborg will try to dominate FC Nordsjælland physically, but their inferiority on speed and technique could be costly. I can’t make Silkeborg favourites as the bookies here. I think this match is almost even, but I acknowledge that FC Nordsjælland historically tend to struggle away from own artificial pitch.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) – 2.18 at Unibet

Horsens-Esbjerg

Saturday 1/10 16.00

Horsens have had an amazing start to the season given expectations. They have been quite efficient, but they deserve credit for their fighting spirit. They have a physical squad with many quite big players. Defensively, there is still something to work on, as they have been the side conceding the most chances from the penalty box this season. Offensively, they have some confident offensive players that have proved that they can find the net (Aabech, Finnbogason and Bjerregaard). Esbjerg have been terrible this season. As it is right now, I really like my Esbjerg to relegate bet from pre-season. They can’t create things offensively and they rank last in shots from the penalty box. They are without their most important offensive weapon, central midfielder and captain Andersen, and it is really hurtful as he seems to raise the bar for the rest of the team. In the last match, Esbjerg tried using veteran Jørgensen instead, but FC Nordsjælland had no problems beating Esbjerg’s very poorly adjusted midfield. I expect head coach Todd to try something different here – he has too. Also, there is rumours of some conflicts during the midweek training, so it appears like the spirit in Esbjerg is quite bad.

Horsens have been quite lucky, but looking at fundamental stats, they are still stronger than Esbjerg, who appears to be the weakest side in the league currently. This would seem like the obvious home bet, and I am also picking the home side here, but only as an idea. My concern is that Horsens could struggle in a role as favourite, as they prefer to sit back and wait for opponents to make mistakes. I also like the under bet here. Esbjerg can’t create things offensively at the moment and Horsens could also struggle offensively given the favourite stamp.

Ideas: 1 (AH -0.25) – 1.96 at Pinnacle

Under 2.5 goals – 1.83 at Pinnacle

AaB-SønderjyskE

Sunday 2/10 12.00

AaB have had a good season based on points gained, but the performance has not been as good (just look at the xG map from the Silkeborg match posted at my twitter page). They had many slim wins at the start of the season, but recently they have not had the same luck and they have started to lose matches. Fans are not happy, as the performance has been quite poor compared to the expectations. However, perhaps it is not so surprising, as AaB made many changes in the summer break (lost several key players) – but the successful (in points) start to the season raised the expectations, which now seems to be a burden. AaB have struggled a bit with injuries and bans lately, which is quite hurtful due to limited squad depth. For this match, AaB are still without left back Ahlmann and attacker Enevoldsen, while defensive midfielder Würtz returns from ban. The return of Würtz is vital, the veteran captain is excellent at creating balance in the midfield. SønderjyskE have won three matches in a row and are brimming with confidence after a tough start to the season. They are a defensively solid team with quality on set pieces and counters. Unfortunately, one of their best players, winger Absalonsen, misses the match with an injury. SønderjyskE do not have the most impressive squad depth either, so this is a significant minus.

AaB are normally a good home team, but I think they have som big issues offensively at the moment. They rely a lot on the speed of Bassogog as other offensive weapons are fairly bleak at the moment. SønderjyskE on the other hand, have not lost in the last six league games, and are typically a good away side due to their counter-attacking nature. Not massive value, but I would back the away side here.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.90 at Bet365

Lyngby-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 2/10 14.00

Lyngby are having a spectacular run at the moment. The promoted side has won the last three matches 1-0, which is hugely impressive and they are undoubtedly very confident at the moment. I just feel that the results are lying. Lyngby have been very lucky – just look at the xG maps on my Twitter. They should probably have had one draw and two losses in the last two matches, but luck was on their side. In the last three matches they have had 18 shots and scored 3 goals, while the opponents have had 62 shots and scored 0 goals! Yes, Lyngby have a really good goalkeeper, possible the best in the league, but this is just insanely lucky/efficient. A don’t think Lyngby can keep this up. However, it is worth noticing that the matches have been fairly even until Lyngly’s opening goal and afterwards they have created nothing, so maybe the figures are lying a bit, since Lyngby only want to defend – but it is still a massive number of chances allowed. FC Midtjylland are a top 3 team, but have not started so good in terms of points. They seem to be back on track now, although there have been some examples of an unhealthy atmosphere in the squad. However, they have a really strong team (van der Vaart for instance!) and they should be a level above Lyngby. It will be interesting to see if new winger Wikheim can build on his great match last week. I have seen him play for Strømsgodset and he looked really strong then, so I think he could be a solid signing for FC Midtjylland.

I have Lyngby as the luckiest side in the league currently. Based on stats, I think they should have had a -6 goal difference, but they have a +1 goal difference. I think we will see that goal difference revert to the mean at some point, and I am quite sure that they will need some luck here to get another win, as anything else then shot dominance from FC Midtjylland would be very surprising. I think the price puts too much in Lyngby’s wins and I would be happy to back FC Midtjylland until 1.85.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH -0.5) – 1.97 at Unibet

Viborg-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 2/10 16.00

Viborg have had a slightly disappointing season so far. I think, that they have played as expected, but they have been a little bit unlucky, why I think they fairly should have earned a couple of points more. Another problem for Viborg has been a continuous stream of injuries. Especially, the injury for in-form winger Thychosen has proved hurtful, and a number of other injuries mean that Viborg don’t have a lot to bring from the bench. Offensively, I still think they have some good cards in Deble and Park, although they are too wasteful (but they do create chances). Viborg are very solid at the back, only FC Copenhagen and Brøndby have allowed fewer shots from own penalty box. FC Copenhagen continue to prove how strong they are. The midweek 4-0 win against Club Bruges in the Champions League was hugely impressive, but could also have an influence here as there is a risk that the FC Copenhagen players could be a bit too relaxed. This seems to have been the case earlier this season as FC Copenhagen only has 2 wins in 5 away games. They will have to do without striker Santander who is injured, but although Santander is their best striker, they have some great alternatives.

Viborg and FC Copenhagen have met twice during the last year and both matches have ended in a draw. Viborg are not easy to break down, although they look slightly weaker this time around, while FC Copenhagen seem very strong. Nevertheless, I just can’t find value in the away side here, as they have had a tough programme and could be a bit too relaxed here.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +1.25) – 1.79 at SBOBet

Brøndby-Randers

Sunday 2/10 18.00

Brøndby were back to winning ways last weekend (3-0 against OB). It was another match, where Brøndby created a big amount of chances. They have really showed big offensive strength this season and they have the most shots on goal by a distance. Defensively, they still give away some chances due to their aggressive and risky style, but it is actually not bad due to the ability to maintain the pressure on the opponent. Brøndby have struggled in a few matches recently, but with the return of Mukhtar in the last match, they again look offensively productive. Randers have had a good start to the season. They should be able to snatch a top 6 spot as they have a quite solid squad, especially offensively. They suffered a hurtful 0-4 defeat to SønderjyskE in the last round, mainly due to an early red card to central midfielder Poulsen. He will miss this match and the same is the case for key central defender Fenger who is injured. Especially the latter is a problem as Randers are set to be put under pressure. Offensively, they have some weapons in Ishak and Pourie that should be able to hurt an attacking Brøndby.

Brøndby were back at full strength last weekend, and therefore it is natural to expect the same here. Randers are suffering from some absences, but also have quality to hurt Brøndby. The price has been tumbling down on Brøndby and it has reached a level, where I don’t want to back them (remember they have dropped points to Viborg and Horsens at home this season). No obvious picks here, but if you forced me, I would pick over 2.5 goals.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.80 at Tipico

Week 11 round-up

Slim profit for the round, but it was actually excellent when looking at the spots. All three recommendations had significantly lower odds, which is a good signal for long-term profit. The Tip of the Week failed miserably as Randers performed poorly and conceded an early red card too. The other two recommendations won safely. I hope you enjoy the picks! If so, likes, RT's and feedback is always appreciated!

Overall, the season is looking solid with a +11% yield.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Randers-SønderjyskE 1 -0.5 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.13

Closing odds: 1.97

Brøndby-OB 1 -1

Our pick: 2.09

Closing odds: 1.82

FC Nordsjælland-Esbjerg 1 -0.25

Our pick: 2.02

Closing odds: 1.85

Week 11 Superliga previews

FC Copenhagen-AGF
Saturday 24/9 15.30

FC Copenhagen are the strongest side in the league, but the match against Randers proved that even they will suffer under a tough schedule and the ensuing rotation. Even though FC Copenhagen have some excellent reserves, they were not able to keep the usual high level after rotating a bit and they ended up with a fair draw. This will be FC Copenhagen’s 5th game in 14 days and they have a vital Champions League match against Club Brügge on Tuesday, so I don’t think we will see them with the best eleven here. Rotation winger Verbic will be rested, while vital central midfielder Delaney returns from a ban. AGF have played some poor matches, but were terrific in the last match against FC Midtjylland. They should have won, but they are still struggling with questionable goalkeeping, which seems to be a continuous problem no matter which goalkeeper is selected. AGF are a mid-table team with a solid midfield and an efficient striker, but defensively they have a lot to work with. AGF will have to do without central defender Soares and midfielders Spelman and Olsen. All are players that often are in the line-up, but none of them are irreplaceable, so their absence is mainly a problem for the quality on the bench.

With FC Copenhagen likely to rest players and AGF looking better, it would seem like an obvious pick to back the away side. Problem is that I think we are already late for that bus. Odds have dropped a lot on the away side due to this logic, and in my opinion it is enough. FC Copenhagen are 11-2-0 on own grass in 2016 and even if they rest 2-4 players, they will be significantly stronger than AGF that have obvious defensive issues. Line-ups will make us all wiser, but if I had to bet now, I would pick the home side.

Idea: 1 – 1.48 at Pinnacle

Viborg-Lyngby

Sunday 25/9 12.00

Viborg lost a fairly even match in Aalborg. Viborg have been quite unstable, but one thing to be quite consistent: poor showings on own turf. They are 1-1-3 at home this season. It is obvious that they are not comfortable when having to dictate matches. They make their best results when allowed to sit back and counter like they did at Brøndby a week ago. They had more than 56% ball possession against AaB, and that made it a bit more difficult as they struggle against compact defences. Viborg do have a solid team though. They are defensively strong and have some speedy forwards. Lyngby were lucky to beat Brøndby 1-0 in the last round, and for Lyngby it has generally been lucky or unlucky in all matches this season. Lyngby have been comfortable away from home this season, where they have looked quite lively and capable of producing chances. They have a lot of confidence at the moment based on two wins in a row, and their goalkeeper Jesper Hansen is really looking strong at the moment.

Viborg have the better side, but they could struggle in the role as favourite – similar to the match against Horsens two weeks ago (lost 2-4). I would go with Lyngby here. They have confidence and will enjoy sitting back and letting Viborg try to create something. Only idea pick as Lyngby have much worse fundamental stats, so based on a strictly stats approach Viborg would be the choice here.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.97 at Pinnacle

Randers-SønderjyskE

Sunday 25/9 14.00

Randers played an excellent match against FC Copenhagen in the midweek (2-2). They showed that they are a strong and capable team - top 6 looks like a certain outcome. For this match, they will welcome back central defenders Fenger and Agesen from bans, so the defence should be back to its best level. Randers have a decent midfield, where creative winger Fisker mostly impresses me. They have a very strong attack with a lot of options – Ishak and Pourie appear to be the preferred choice at the moment. SønderjyskE are on the way back! They have won two matches in a row and it is obvious what confidence can do. Don’t look too much at the table – they dropped many points at the start of the season due to Europa League. Now they should be able to use all energy on the Superliga and start to advance. They live on commitment and work rate, combined with a few highly skilled players, particularly wingers Kroon and Absalonsen. I think they have looked a bit fragile at the back recently, where they are trying to introduce a new young goalkeeper (Fernandes) and a central defender that has been injured for a long time (Luijckx).

Randers arrive here with one more day for preparation and SønderjyskE looked fairly tired at the end of the last match, where they conceded several chances despite being 11 against 10. Randers will also welcome back key players, so they will be in strongest formation here. Randers have been doing great this season – they hold a shots on target ratio of 58% (only surpassed by the 3 big teams: FCK, FCM and Brøndby) and they are at home here, so they deserve to be clear favourites. Should be value down to 2.00.

Tip of the Week: 1 – 2.13 at Pinnacle
Update: Randers defender Fenger has picked up an injury during training and is out here. Odds have already dropped a bit (around 2.00), so stay out at current prices.

Brøndby-OB

Sunday 25/9 16.00

Brøndby have lost two matches in a row. They were poor in the first match, but did better against Lyngby (won shots on target statistic 10-1!). However, it seems obvious that they have lost some of the belief that fuelled them at the start of the season. I still regard them as a clear top 3 team and they have a lot of offensive firepower in the trio of Wilczek, Pukki and Hjulsager (1, 2 and 3 on the league top goalscorer list!). Brøndby have a shots on target ratio of 76% - that is serious stuff and hugely impressive, but their style allows opponents to take too many shots from own penalty box. So while they concede only few shots on target, they are the team conceding the largest percentage of shots from own penalty area! Brøndby might be able to welcome creative ace Mukhtar back from injury, he could do a difference as Brøndby have faded a bit after his injury. OB are the most in-crisis team in the league. They have lost five matches in a row, they have not scored in the last four matches and confidence is low. Add to this that the list of absences just grows. OB have been without both left backs, right back Lund and key striker Jacobsen. While I expect this could be the case for this match too, the situation has only worsened as most important midfielder Makrini picked up a suspension. It is really difficult to find any optimism for OB supporters, as they don’t have much proven quality to bring from the outskirts of the squad.

Unless Jacobsen makes a return here, I find it really difficult to see how OB should do any damage to Brøndby here. They are low on confidence and quality at the moment. This could end badly for OB, and only comfort must be that Brøndby are not experiencing the best period either. Still I think it is value to bet on a big home win as OB are in a situation where they risk falling apart under Brøndby’s aggressive pressure.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -1) – 2.09 at SBOBet
Update: Lund is back for OB. The rest are out. Slight improvement, but still not good for the away side.

FC Midtjylland-Horsens

Sunday 25/9 18.00

FC Midtjylland played two good matches, leading me to believe that they were back on track, but the match against AGF (1-1) showed that they are still unstable. They were lucky not to lose. It was also another match that suggested that the situation in the dressing room is far from optimal. Several players have made gestures suggesting they are not satisfied by head coach Thorup’s decisions. FC Midtjylland are undoubtedly a very strong side (top 3 quality), but they are only showing it in glimpses. Horsens have been the biggest surprise on the season. They are strong at the back and work hard, but they are also very lucky. I have them down as the luckiest side in the league. They have a positive goal difference +1, but my figures suggest it should have been -7 if things had been fair. They have been so efficient in front of goal and I can’t see that continuing.

I think the 1X2 market has been set pretty well. FC Midtjylland are way better than Horsens and I doubt Horsens can continue to create miracles based on efficiency. It’s a no bet for me, but given that I always provide some sort of pick, I would go for Horsens not to score. FC Midtjylland proved in a similar match against Esbjerg that they can keep an opponent from quality chances and Horsens have not produced much offensively this season.

Idea: Horsens under 0.5 goals – 2.01 at Pinnacle

FC Nordsjælland-Esbjerg

Sunday 25/9 20.00

The youth team, FC Nordsjælland, finally got a point after a rather tough period. They played a defensively solid match at Horsens (0-0), but the match also proved that they are not good at creating chances when not playing on own artificial turf. Now they return to their favourite pitch, and I expect to see them being livelier. FC Nordsjælland have a lot of weak points due to them fielding so many young players – particularly on the backs and central midfield. In attack, I think they look strong with Ingvartsen and the speedy Asante. They can be deadly for a team leaving space to counter. Goalkeeper Runarsson is set to miss the match, but I don’t think the back up is worse. Esbjerg have been awfully poor this season. They don’t create much offensively, where they really struggle under the lack of a true striker. They have only had a total of four shots on target in the last three matches! Furthermore, they are very reliant of the creative production of midfielder Andersen and he left the last match with an injury, which will keep him out here. It’s a big problem for Esbjerg that are set to line-up with a very defensive midfield with Palsson and Jørgensen. I think they could get problems against the technical Nordsjælland midfielders on the artificial pitch. Esbjerg will put their faith in the speedy offensive player Mensah, who can create something on his own, but otherwise it does not look good. Esbjerg’s best central defender Nordvik missed the last match and could be out here too – concerning for the fragile backline.

I have not had much faith in FC Nordsjælland in recent matches, but I will back them here. Esbjerg have been poor lately and without their best player Andersen and perhaps also Nordvik, it is not looking good for them. FC Nordsjælland are always way stronger at home, and I think they deserve to be bigger favourites here.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.02 at Pinnacle

Update: Nordvik has been confirmed out, so Esbjerg miss their best central defender and the captain/best central midfielder (Andersen).

Silkeborg-AaB

Monday 26/9 19.00

Silkeborg are experiencing an improvement in form. Especially the return of winger Skov seems to have boosted their offensive capabilities. At the same time, confidence seems to be returning after a miserable start to the season. Silkeborg are still one of the weaker sides, they lack quality in general, but with confidence and a quality player like Skov they can earn some points. AaB returned to winning ways after some disappointing results. They won a tight match against Viborg despite the absence of some key players. For this match, central defener Holgersson will return and it will undoubtedly improve the central defence. However, a just as vital player will miss out as central midfielder Würtz (captain) is banned. Adding to this, AaB still expect to be without attacker Enevoldsen and left back Ahlmann, so the slim squad is getting a challenge. The starting eleven should be fine though, but AaB still struggle a bit with the offensive production. However, Silkeborg could get problems with the speed of striker Bassogog.

AaB have more quality, but they also have two days less rest in a tight schedule. This won’t be an easy match for the away side, but I still believe that they should be favourites due to the squad superiority. However, I would like the price to be just a bit bigger. Market should like the issues for AaB with less rest and the absence of the captain, so if you wait you could perhaps get a better price. I think they are value from around 2.20 for the straight win. I pick the more conservative -0.25 line here as an idea.

Idea: 2 (AH -0.25) – 1.88 at Pinnacle