Week 32 round-up

A disaster! Tragicomically, we continued our poor run with a round with only losses! Really disappointing to see good positive results getting ruined by a 2015, where we have been unlucky many times, but clearly not good enough either. Now we are looking forward to recharge the batteries, so the next season will be a positive experience. The final round has nothing at stake, but we will look to find time to some short previews before the holiday. We will be hoping that our long-term season bets will be successful.

List of pending long-term #Twitbets:
4/7 2014: To concede most goals: Hobro - 2.00 at Bet25
25/8 2014: Winner: FC Midtjylland - 3.25 at Unibet
25/8 2014: Leader at winter break: FC Midtjylland - 2.25 at Bet25 WIN
25/8 2014: To relegate: Hobro - 2.55 at Danske Spil
25/8 2014: League top goalscorer: Pusic/Cornelius - 4.39 at Unibet
3/11 2014: Hobro to concede 46 goals or more - 2.35 at Bet25
22/12 2014: SønderjyskE to total less than 16.5 draws in the season - 3.80 at Bet25
31/12 2014: To relegate: FC Vestsjælland - 2.00 at Bet365

AaB-Silkeborg preview

Sunday 31/5 16.00

Silkeborg (12th) have been relegated for some time and their recent performances have not been impressive. There have also been some negative comments from the squad signalling dissatisfaction with the way the club is run. Not the best preparation for the season’s last game at own stadium, a place they have not won all season. They will benefit from the return of winger Robert Skov and striker Morten Beck Andersen. Andersen is the team top goalscorer in the spring with five goals, so he will be an important addition. Rotation player Jeppe Illum and central defender Thorbjørn Holst are out with injuries. AaB (5th) are still in the hunt for 4th place that yields Europa League, but they need to win the remaining matches. Therefore this is a must-win match for AaB. They will have to do it without their normal central defence, since Kenneth Emil Petersen and Rasmus Thelander are both injured. This means that AaB will field a young central defence, but the candidates Kasper Pedersen and Jakob Blåbjerg have actually done fine when given the chance. What is important for AaB is that their midfield is reunited. AaB have a very strong midfield when all players are fit. They are good at distributing the ball and taking dangerous runs, which also gives more space for the strikers.

AaB have dropped a lot in odds during the week and with good reason since the starting point was too high. AaB have something at stake here and they have a strong team. Silkeborg do not have anything at stake and a poor morale. This really looks like an away win, and it could be with more than one goal. We gamble here and go for a big AaB win.

Idea: 2 (AH -1.5) – 2.90 at Unibet

Randers-Brøndby preview

Sunday 31/5 16.00

Randers (4th) are still in the hunt for 3rd place, but they need a win here. Randers have been looking better in recent matches, perhaps due to a more consistent good situation in squad situation. Only absence is central defender Mads Agesen, but young Jeppe Tverskov has been a fine replacement. Randers will try to dominate this match through a stronger physique. IF they can turn this match into a fight, it will be difficult for Brøndby. Winger Jonas Kamper are showing good things on the flank and his crosses could be deadly given the strong strikers of Randers (Fall, Ishak, Brock-Madsen). Brøndby (3rd) are showing great form at the moment. They have won the last five away matches after only winning 1 away match in 10 attempts. Brøndby seem to have become better as the pitches improve with is more suiting for their small and technical gifted players. However, it is also evident that they need their influential rock at the back, central defender Daniel Agger. Brøndby win fewer matches and concedes significantly more goals when Agger is out, which is the case here due to a ban. It is especially problematic since Agger’s strength in the air would have been vital. Brøndby will hope to avoid dangerous situation by keeping the ball on own feet, but they will have to be very good on the ball to succeed.

The absence of Agger is hugely important for Brøndby. In our opinion it is plenty of reason for making Randers the favourite here. Brøndby seem very fragile without him. Randers on the other hand will see their opportunity to open up the fight for the 3rd place and they will be motivated to end the season with a good effort in front of own fans. We would pick the home win here.

Idea: 1 – 2.60 at Danske Spil

SønderjyskE-FC Copenhagen preview

Sunday 31/5 16.00

This is probably the match with least at stake in this round. None of the teams can change much, so this is just a matter of finishing the season before going on holiday. SønderjyskE (9th) took a vital point against FC Vestsjælland in the last round, which was enough to save them. They have not played impressively in 2015, but they have earned to necessary points to clinch the goal for the season: to survive. SønderjyskE have been quite poor at home this season. They have only managed to take two wins in 15 matches and they have registered an impressive amount of draws: 8. They are not good at dominating matches, and the result is often some tight and hard fought matches. For this match, SønderjyskE will be without their biggest fighter, midfield warrior Adama Guira. A blow, since he is a very important in shielding the defence. Left back Erik Marxen is doubtful, while winger Johan Absalonsen returns from a ban. FC Copenhagen (2nd) have an incredible list of absences for this match. 9 first team players are out! Six of them would have been starters if fit. Most importantly is the absence of offensive ace Nicolai Jørgensen. Without him FC Copenhagen really lack some spark offensively. It does not make matters easier that their assist champ, left back Ludwig Augustinsson is out here. Augustinsson is 2nd in the league in assist (6) despite of only having played in FC Copenhagen since winter (14 matches)! Central defender Per Nilsson is also a new absence, while captain and central midfielder Thomas Delaney returns from a ban. In total, FC Copenhagen will field a team with many defensive oriented players, and several players out of position (in central defense, on left back and right midfield). FC Copenhagen have managed to take some slim wins despite of injuries for most of 2015, but can they do it again here with the list being even longer?

It is the draw-kings against the injury-kings. Nothing is at the stake here and we could easily get a match, where both teams are unable to break up the opposing defence and not wants to invest anything specific in doing so. Combined they register 66% under 2.5 goal matches and it seems incredible that the bookies have over as favourite. If you are more of gambler go for a draw, otherwise under 2.5 goals should be a value pick.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 1.98 at Unibet

FC Nordsjælland-FC Midtjylland preview

Sunday 31/5 16.00

FC Nordsjælland (7th) will look to end the season with some positive results. The 4-2 win against Hobro showed promising things, but opponent was not impressive. Now they face a real test against the title winners, FC Midtjylland. FC Nordsjælland will have to do this without their banned right back Mario Ticinovic, which is bad news since FC Nordsjælland lack a quality alternative. The young Icelandic Adam Arnason is set to play, but he will get his hands full against FC Midtjylland’s Sylvester Igboun. Otherwise, FC Nordsjælland are without absences and if they have a good day, they should have decent chances here on their own pitch. Most dangerous situation is set to go through wingers Joshua John and Uffe Bech, and they could take advantage against FC Midjtylland backs that are not the strongest you could face. FC Midtjylland (1st) are champions and have nothing to play for here. Instead, they will use the match to test themselves ahead of the Champions League matches next season. They will change strategy and not put as much pressure on the ball. The aim is then to counter with a big field ahead of them, which should suit their fast wingers. It will be interesting to see how this approach works. They will have to do it without some key players. Compared to last match, right back and captain Kristian Bach Bak and midfielder Petter Andersson are out, while central defender Erik Sviatchenko and striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen return. In total, this should mean that FC Midtjylland are around the same level. Head coach Riddersholm has said that they won’t be resting their best players despite of the secured championship title, so we should expect to see an FC Midtjylland team in a strong version.

FC Nordsjælland are a strong home team, probably because of their artificial pitch (the only in the league). They face a FC Midtjylland team who are trying out new things, so they should have decent chances of a surprise here. The defensive issues for both teams combined with a tendency for both teams to play high-scoring games (61% over 2.5 goals for both teams combined), should open up for a match with goals, which we believe is the best bet of the match.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.75 at Ladbrokes

Esbjerg-FC Vestsjælland preview

Sunday 31/5 16.00

The only match in the round where there really is something at stake. Esbjerg (10th) will be favourite to go down if they lose here, since they have a difficult final match in Brøndby, which they would then be forced to win. If they just get a draw here, they will survive. The players were very affected by this sudden relegation threat and played a very poor match in AaB. Esbjerg’s players are primarily technically focused and not cut out for a tough relegation battle. One of the players who have shown great passion for his local team is midfielder Casper Nielsen, but he will miss this match with an injury. This is concerning, since individual skills is not the most important here: it is more about a will to win, and Esbjerg’s players do not show that they have this in the necessary scale. However, the stadium will be packed and with some home support, Esbjerg could get wings. Strong right back Ryan Laursen returns from a ban. FC Vestsjælland (11th) have to win this match, otherwise their season is over. They have looked strong and focused during the past weeks and they have impressed by taking two wins late in the recent matches. FC Vestsjælland suffered in the start of 2015 due to many new signings, but they seem to have adjusted now and they have started to look like a decent Superliga team. Midfielders Osama Akharraz and Marc Rochester miss the match with injury, while captain Henrik Madsen is doubtful. Only Madsen is important, but even if he is out they have a solid team.

If the match was based only on footballing skills, Esbjerg were clear favorites. However, given the importance of the match, the mental state is also very important. FC Vestsjælland have fighting an uphill battle for a long time and they have showed great mental strength. This will be a huge advantage for them here, and it would not be any surprise if they took the win here. The bookies are overrating Esbjerg, and there is clear value in the away win. Remember that draw would not be enough for FC Vestsjælland so they will gamble for the win.

Recommendation: 2 – 3.60 at Unibet

Hobro-OB preview

Sunday 31/5 16.00

Hobro (6th) have not looked compelling in recent matches. After being almost absence-free for most of the season, some injuries for important players have been problematic for them in recent matches. In this match, the situation is concerning. Strong defensive midfielder Jonas Damborg and striker Quincy Antipas remain out, but added to this, captain and central defender Mads Justesen is also absent and the same is the replacement for Antipas, Dennis Høegh. Only good news is the return of central defender Anders Egholm from a ban. Nevertheless, the end result is a tired and weakened Hobro team who is looking for the summer break. Important midfielder and local hero, Martin Thomsen, just signed a contract with the relegated Silkeborg, so the sun is not shining as brightly on Hobro as it did early this season. OB (8th) have looked improved in recent matches despite of some not satisfactory result. They should have won against Silkeborg and could have earned a point at FC Copenhagen. They are in a good condition at the moment with no important absences.  Only player out is midfielder Azer Busuladzic, but he is not among the important regular players and OB have good alternatives in the squad. The question is how OB will approach the match: with a 4-4-2 or a 3-4-3. They have some good striker in Kenneth Zohore and Thomas Dalgaard that could deserve a chance in a match like this. OB have many strong offensive weapons which should give Hobro some issues given the absence of their two best defensive players Damborg and Justesen.

OB are in a much better condition than Hobro at the moment, and they also seem mentally more on top. The home advantage should not mean very much here in a match with nothing specific at stake. OB have won 3 out of the last 4 away matches and we believe that this should happen again here.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 2.40 at Unibet

Week 31 round-up

A so-so round. Sad to miss our Tip of the Week bet, which should have been a win, but FC Vestsjælland dropped their deserved lead late in the game through an own goal. Too bad. Our Tuesday recommendation on goals was never close to success. There were good chances at the start of the game that could have sparked a goal show, but they did not arrive and the match turned out differently than what we hoped and expected. It was nice to see Pusic score, this is good news for our long-term bet on him as top goalscorer. Not so good that SønderjyskE got a draw. 5 draws in the last 7 matches is problematic for our long-term bet on SønderjyskE draws. They cannot draw in the last two games if we are to get success with our pick. We expect next picks to arrive on Saturday.

List of pending long-term #Twitbets:
4/7 2014: To concede most goals: Hobro - 2.00 at Bet25
25/8 2014: Winner: FC Midtjylland - 3.25 at Unibet
25/8 2014: Leader at winter break: FC Midtjylland - 2.25 at Bet25 WIN
25/8 2014: To relegate: Hobro - 2.55 at Danske Spil
25/8 2014: League top goalscorer: Pusic/Cornelius - 4.39 at Unibet
3/11 2014: Hobro to concede 46 goals or more - 2.35 at Bet25
22/12 2014: SønderjyskE to total less than 16.5 draws in the season - 3.80 at Bet25
31/12 2014: To relegate: FC Vestsjælland - 2.00 at Bet365

SønderjyskE-FC Vestsjælland preview

Sunday 24/5 17.00

SønderjyskE (9th) dodged a bullet with a 3-2 win in Esbjerg. They can secure their Superliga existence with just a draw here. However, if they lose the face to difficult away games and could risk relegation if other results are not in their way. Motivation should be high! SønderjyskE will have to do without regular winger Johan Absalonsen who is suspended, while the participation of central defender Niels Lodberg is very doubtful. This will be a difficult match for SønderjyskE, since they tend to struggle in home games. They do rank 8th in terms of SoTR (50%), but their home record shows another picture (2-7-5). SønderjyskE are really bad at dominating matches and prefer to live on counter-attacks. FC Vestsjælland (11th) are still alive in the relegation hunt, but they need at least two wins in the last three matches. They will come out with fire in their eyes and they will fight until the end, which have also given them some late wins recently. They are playing decent football and look solid in all lines. One concern is the situation of team top goalscorer Rasmus Festersen who left the last match with an injury. If he is out, it will limit FC Vestsjælland’s offensive power, since they lack a speedy player next to Apostollos Vellios. FC Vestsjælland rank low on away SoTR (37%), but the base of this poor record was made earlier this season, where FC Vestsjælland were playing much worse than they do now after the winter signings and return of left back Michael Lumb have made its impact.

SønderjyskE are a mediocre home team, while FC Vestsjælland seem to be playing with wind in their back at the moment. This will be a tight and intense match, and we see no obvious reason for making SønderjyskE so big favourites. There should be value in the away side and we pick the full win, since this makes more sense given the current situation in the table.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 3.45 at Danske Spil

UPDATE: Lodberg is out for SønderjyskE. Festersen in the called squad for FC Vestsjælland.

FC Nordsjælland-Hobro preview

Monday 25/5 13.00

FC Nordsjælland (8th) have lost the last four matches which have ended their hopes of continental football. They have looked bereft of confidence. However, the last match in Brøndby showed some improvements. Left back Patrick Mtiliga was back in the line-up, and the captain surely has a big impact on his teammates. Team top goalscorer Uffe Bech also came on the pitch late in the 2nd half after an injury, and the speedy winger should be back in the line-up here. FC Nordsjælland are reportedly free of absences and they are typically a very strong home team. The artificial pitch suits them and their style of playing, and this is a reason why they based on SoTR (60%) are the 4th strongest home team in the league. Hobro (5th) took a sensational 1-0 win against local rivals Randers in the last round. Sensational since Hobro were under huge pressure (shooting statistic said 20-4) for must of the match, but Mads Hvilsom once again showed why he is on top of league top goalscorer list; he is such a talented finisher. Hobro have not been looking good lately. They have clearly been the weaker team in the last four matches, and it is obvious that the number of injuries have a negative effect. Talismanic defensive midfielder Jonas Damborg is out, while backs Tjørnelund and Bøge, midfielder Mikkel Thygesen and striker Quincy Antipas are all doubtful. Furthermore, strong central defender Anders Egholm is banned, and all these issues is clearly concerning. Hobro still have an outside chance of continental football, but three wins in the last three matches are probably necessary. Hobro are the weakest away team in the league based on SoTR (35%).

It is a match between two teams in rather poor form. Hobro have more to play for than FC Nordsjælland, but also a much worse squad situation. FC Nordsjælland are a rather strong home team, while Hobro are quite poor away from home. We are quite sure that this match should end in a home win in at least 5 out of 10 cases, why there are good value in a home win here.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.5) – 2.02 at Unibet

Update: Antipas is out for Hobro. The other doubtful Hobro players are in the called-up squad. FC Nordsjælland with best team available.

Silkeborg-Randers preview

Monday 25/5 15.00

Silkeborg (12th) added a point to their disappointing point score after a hard match at OB (1-1). Silkeborg were very lucky to get that point, OB had a massive overload in chances and even hit the bar four times. Silkeborg are the poorest team in the league, and also the poorest home team based on SoTR (42%). They lack quality in general, but have some players that are at Superliga level (Emil Scheel being the most obvious). Silkeborg have a very slim squad and have often struggled to fill the bench. This could also be the case here. Winger Rolf Skov and striker Morten Beck (who scored last weekend) are both banned, while striker Nicolaj Agger (team top goalscorer), midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen and veteran central defender Thorbjørn Holst are all doubtful. Silkeborg risk being without many of their best offensive players, why they will have to focus on working hard and being defensive solid to get points here. Randers (4th) waved goodbye to hopes of a 3rd place with the rather unfair home loss to Hobro (0-1). Randers (4th) are a quality side that has a good organization and they only have a few absences at the moment. Central defender Mads Agesen remains out with an injury, while striker Nicolai Brock-Madsen is doubtful. Randers will be playing for maintaining their 4th place and they should be very motivated to get back to winnings ways after the frustrating loss last weekend. Randers are however not the most impressive away team and only register the 7th best away SoTR (43%).

Silkeborg risk being without several important players. They lack something to play for, while Randers have a lot at stake and only few absences. The odds market however seems quite fair, so no recommendation here. If we were to have something at stake here, we would go for Randers, since there have been some positive indications in their game lately. Silkeborg not to score could also be a good idea given the offensive absences. If Agger is out, Silkeborg only have Scheel left who has scored more than 1 goal. Randers are at the same time good at keeping a clean sheet and has done this in 7 out of 15 away matches.

Idea: 2 (AH -1) – 2.05 at Unibet

Silkeborg not to score – 2.20 at Tipico

Update: Agger and Pedersen are back in the squad for Silkeborg. Agger is the team top goalscorer, so not good for the Silkeborg not to score bet. Randers will have Brock-Madsen back.

FC Copenhagen-OB preview

Monday 25/5 17.00

We have burned our fingers a few times by going against FC Copenhagen (2nd) lately. It has been very impressive how they have been able to take slim wins despite of their long list of injuries and a tight schedule. For this match, the situation is not made easier since central midfielder and captain Thomas Delaney is banned. Fortunately, central defender Per Nilsson, so FC Copenhagen will again have 11 available first team players in the squad. But the question is whether more first team players will return. Offensive ace Nicolai Jørgensen remains doubtful and his return would be a massive boost to the severely weakened FC Copenhagen attack. FC Copenhagen should be certain to take 2nd place and do not have anything specific to play for. OB (7th) are also without anything to play for. A win in the last match against Silkeborg could have sparked continental qualification hopes, but OB were too wasteful and ended up with a draw. OB have shown positive tendencies lately and they have actually won the last three away matches. Only injury concern is Martin Spelmann who left the last match with an injury, but the important offensive midfielder is expected to return here. OB are a strong away team; they rank 4th based on SoTR (47%) and this shows that their skills are in the counter-attacking with the likes of Emil Larsen and Rasmus Falk.

FC Copenhagen have such a long list of injuries that it should be impossible to keep winning, but it is important to have in mind that even though the bench is inexistent, the quality of the players in the line-up is fine. They should just be a bit fatigued by now with cup games and heavy league schedule. This is a match that should really favour a potentially injury-free OB team. We dare to go against FC Copenhagen once more here, but be warned, FC Copenhagen have a remarkable tendency to win the tight matches with a goal. If Jørgensen is back for FC Copenhagen it is a huge no bet.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.75) – 1.90 at Bet365

UPDATE: Jørgensen is back in the squad for FC Copenhagen, which is detrimental for our idea pick.

FC Midtjylland-Brøndby preview

Monday 25/5 19.00

FC Midtjylland (1st) gained the title on Thursday and we out celebrating all night. They will probably not be overly motivated for this match, although it is against Brøndby and they have an impressive home record to maintain (won all 15 homes games this season). The squad situation is finally starting to look good and with midfielder Tim Sparv returning from a ban, they are only set to be without a few defensive regulars: captain Kristian Bak Bach and Jim Larsen, but they have been without them for some time. Goalkeeper Johan Dahlin is also in doubt. FC Midtjylland have been so impressive at home this season, where they record a magnificent league high SoTR of 75%. Brøndby (3rd) are playing for 3rd place and they should be able to seal the deal with just one win in the last three games. Brøndby will look to welcome back gifted central midfielder Christian Nørgaard, who has really been a joy to witness here in 2015. There is some doubt regarding another good midfielder, Ferhan Hasani who was unable to participate in the last match. Hasani is an important player for a match like this, because he has the physique to match FC Midtjylland. This is something that you could doubt that several Brøndby players could struggle with (wingers Rashani, Szymanowski and Hjulsager just to name a few). Here you will probably also find the explanation why Brøndby typically do rather poor away from home – they are often dominated by physically stronger teams. They only rank 6th based on away SoTR (46%).

It is a difficult match to predict since you don’t know how much power FC Midtjylland will enter this match with. If they were going for the win 100% there should be clear value in the home win, but the current situation is not comforting for a home win. Therefore we keep this as an idea. In any case, odds 2.25 for a home win for a team that have won all home games this season against a team that tend to struggle in away games (to be fair Brøndby have won the last four away games, but against weak opponents), seems like too much.

Idea: 1 – 2.25 at Tipico

UPDATE: Captian Bak Bach is back for FC Midtjylland, while central defender Erik Sviatchenko is newest absence. This should leave them at around the same level defensively. Hasani misses the match for Brøndby.

AaB-Esbjerg preview

Tuesday 26/5 19.00

AaB (6th) lost the second match in a row and should thereby have lost all hope of continental qualification. It is a disappointing outcome for an AaB team that have started to look stronger, but the last two matches have been very poor in terms of their passing game. If AaB are not good in the passing game, they are not good at all, since this is their usual quality. The chances of a good game will increase with the return of captain Rasmus Würtz from ban. The defensive midfielder is excellent to set the pace and we should expect to see an improved AaB team compared to the last match. Central defender Rasmus Thelander is the only certain absence due to an injury. AaB have not been as good a home team as usual and only rank 9th in terms of home SotTR (50%). Esbjerg (10th) are in a critical position. They have a rather difficult remaining schedule, so if they lose the next match against FC Vestsjælland they are in serious relegation danger. Therefore, it will be hugely important to get a result here. Esbjerg have a fairly good team, but they often way too naïve, which was also evident in the last match, where they invited SønderjyskE to hit them on the counter, which ended with 3 goals conceded. Esbjerg’s defence is not impressive, but it is remarkable that they ranked 2nd in the league in terms of goals scored! They are also a decent away team and rank 5th based on away SoTR (46%). Esbjerg will probably be without influential central midfielder Magnus Lekven, who also missed the last two matches. He is the Rasmus Würtz of Esbjerg, so it will be an important absence. Another important absence is right back Ryan Laursen. Laursen have played all matches this season, but misses the match with a ban. Esbjerg do not have any back alternatives and will therefore be forced to use a central defender in the position.

With the AaB midfield reunited, they should be clear favourites, but the motivation aspect should be in favour of Esbjerg. We skip betting on a winner here, and bet on goals instead. Esbjerg have been involved in several matches with a lot of goals lately. They have a good attack and a weak back line, why it would be a surprise if this match ends low on goals. AaB have been shooting more on goal than usual lately.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 1.94 at Nordicbet

Week 30 round-up (plus list of long-term #Twitbets)

We can do many right things, but not get the right outcome. That was the case in this round. We had six picks, admittedly a bit early, but five of these picks experienced odds drops until match start, while the last remained at our initial betting price (the draw idea for Esbjerg-SønderjyskE). Most remarkably our Tip of the Week bet on Randers went from 1.85 to 1.50. These movements have been usual in 2015, albeit not in such a great scale as the Randers match. Unfortunately, the results are not going our way. The Randers match was an excellent case: Randers dominating heavily, having two goals disallowed before Hobro score on their first real chance after 60 minutes. The shooting statistic said 20-4. That really should have been a winner. Our idea picks are not going very well. This is of course frustrating, but it was not expected that these tips would yield a positive profit in the long-run. They are just ideas (currently yielding a payback percentage of 99% all-time, which we think is okay). Our recommendations are solid. We want them to be between a 100-110% return and they are currently at 105% all-time. Our Tip of the Week is very disappointing though. 91% return is far below expectations and we have no logical explanation. Odds are dropping on almost every bet and we have often felt unlucky with these bets. We hope and EXPECT these to improve in the future. Anything else would be massively disappointing since it is our best bets. Finally, our #Twitbets are doing fine, so follow us on Twitter if you are not already doing so.

We have included our long-term #Twitbets below. Unfortunately, our top goalscorer bet that have looked great for a long time is suddenly not winning after Pusic has been surpassed by an in-form Hvilsom. We will be hoping Pusic finds the net in the remaining matches. And several of our other long-term bets will come down to the line.

We will bring the next best tomorrow.

List of pending long-term #Twitbets:
4/7 2014: To concede most goals: Hobro - 2.00 at Bet25
25/8 2014: Winner: FC Midtjylland - 3.25 at Unibet
25/8 2014: Leader at winter break: FC Midtjylland - 2.25 at Bet25 WIN
25/8 2014: To relegate: Hobro - 2.55 at Danske Spil
25/8 2014: League top goalscorer: Pusic/Cornelius - 4.39 at Unibet
3/11 2014: Hobro to concede 46 goals or more - 2.35 at Bet25
22/12 2014: SønderjyskE to total less than 16.5 draws in the season - 3.80 at Bet25
31/12 2014: To relegate: FC Vestsjælland - 2.00 at Bet365

OB-Silkeborg preview

Wednesday 20/5 18.30

OB (8th) are in a position without much to play for. 5th place is probably the best position they can finish in and there is no extra bonus in terms of continental football for that position. Thus, the remainder of the season is just about finishing in a good way. OB have won the last two matches, which is very impressive given the opponents (FC Midtjylland and AaB). OB have been very efficient however. Against FC Midtjylland all goals were from set pieces and against AaB it was the same. OB do struggle when it comes to creating chances in open play. This is not made easier by the potential absence of offensive star Rasmus Falk, who also missed the last match. Hallgrimur Jonasson returns from a ban to bolster the midfield. Silkeborg (12th) are just not as good as the rest, and that is probably why 11th placed FC Vestsjælland have more than twice the amount of points as Silkeborg. Silkeborg lack some quality in general, where some players are not at Superliga level. That being said, they put up a good fight and they are not beaten without the opponent showing the right attitude. For this match, two regulars, right back Dennis Flinta and central midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen return from bans. Team top goalscorer Nicolaj Agger remains doubtful with an injury. If Agger returns Silkeborg will be able to field the strongest line-up.

The odds for home win are too low to have any interest, even though Silkeborg seem to have hit a slight dip in form. The limited importance of the match might spark some entertaining football where both parties play without much defensive focus. Both teams to score might be worth a shot at low stakes.

Idea: Both teams to score – 2.00 at Danske Spil

UPDATE: Agger and Pedersen are out for Silkeborg. OB in strongest line-up.

FC Copenhagen-AaB

Wednesday 20/5 20.00

FC Copenhagen (1st) lost the title hopes with a 2-0 loss at FC Midtjylland on Sunday. It was a logical result due to a long list of injuries that left the FC Copenhagen without any senior players on the bench. FC Copenhagen played a 120 minute cup final on Thursday and the lack of player rotation is likely to have resulted in some very tired players. There is hope that star offensive midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen and winger Rurik Gislason could return from injuries, but the remaining list of injured players is still long. Central defender Per Nilsson is banned for the match and head coach Solbakken really have no quality replacements available. Do not be surprised if FC Copenhagen arrive with youth players in the line-up. AaB (5th) suffered a disappointing loss against OB last weekend, which makes the 4th place very difficult to get. However, an away match against FC Copenhagen will certainly motivate AaB’s players. AaB created many chances against OB, but were wasteful. In general, they seem to be in a good state and show signs of what made them a title-winning team last season. they have two issues however. In the central defence, they look to start with the two youngsters Jakob Blåbjerg and Kasper Pedersen. They have played four matches together, so it is still a rather unproven partnership. In midfield, strong defensive midfielder Rasmus Würtz (captain) is banned. On a positive note, other strong central midfielder Kasper Risgård looks to be back in the starting line-up after struggling with an injury.

AaB played the last match on Friday, while FC Copenhagen played on Sunday. Add that FC Copenhagen have had a tight schedule, have many injured players and probably are demoralised. AaB should have nice chances of leaving Copenhagen with points here.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.86 at Unibet

UPDATE: Key midfielder Jørgensen out for FC Copenhagen. Gislason returns. For AaB, Risgård and central defender Petersen set to return. Good news for the away side.

Randers-Hobro

Thursday 21/5 18.00

Randers (4th) are three points behind Brøndby in the hunt for 3rd place. They need to pick up some wins, and this should be a must win match for them. Randers have been plagued by bans, but this is set to end here. Team top goalscorer Mikael Ishak, assist leader Kasper Fisker and defensive midfielder Nicolai Poulsen all return here. This should give a significant boost to a strong and solid Randers team. Central defender Mads Agesen and striker Nicolaj Brock-Madsen are set to remain out. Hobro (6th) seem to have hit a bad period. It is not the worst time, since they are almost certain to survive. The problem for Hobro is that they have suddenly been hit by injuries, something they have been almost free from for the entire season. For this match, influential defensive midfielder Jonas Damborg is out with an injury, while three regulars are doubtful, left back Jacob Tjørnelund, right back Jesper Bøge and striker Quincy Antipas. If all of them are out, as expected, the situation looks concerning for Hobro who will be easily overrun on the flanks and lack a great individual in attack. Hobro have been able to compensate with a big work effort, but with all the injuries this risk being inadequate. This is a local derby and a big number of fans are expected at the stadium.

Randers look to welcome back several important players. They have all to play for and have been playing decent football lately. Hobro have been playing poorly and risk being without several regulars. This should be a home win and the price is actually quite good.

Tip of the Week: 1 – 1.85 at Unibet

FC Vestsjælland-FC Midtjylland preview

Thursday 21/5 18.00

FC Vestsjælland (11th) kept their hopes alive with a late and deserved win in Hobro. It was very impressive given the tight schedule; FC Vestsjælland had lost a 120 minute cup final just three days prior. FC Vestsjælland made some changes for the match, but a lot of players must be a bit tired with the outlook of a match again here. Three regulars, who also missed the last match, are doubtful here: central midfielder Henrik Madsen, winger Osama Akharraz and left back Michael Lumb. FC Vestsjælland have decent depth, but these players would surely add an improvement to the overall quality. FC Vestsjælland have been playing some nice football recently. They work hard and are solid in all areas. The have been able to get some good results lately by being more committed than their opponents. FC Midtjylland (1st) look certain to win the title. Points here could give them the title (although a loss of points of FC Copenhagen the day before would be enough). FC Midtjylland have deserved the title, and the high level was very visible in the last match, where some of the key players returned from injury. One of them, winger Pione Sisto, looks to add a new dimension with his great dribbling skills and nice finish. The return of Sisto gives a positive problem, since other brilliant winger Sylvester Igboun returns from a ban. FC Midtjylland suddenly have some positive squad problems after a period, where they have just fielded who was ready. There are possible still some defensive issues with central defender Jim Larsen and right back Kristian Bach Bak both doubtful, but in total FC Midtjylland should be able to field a very strong team here.

FC Vestsjælland should be inferior to FC Midtjylland here. The only hope is that the bigger motivation can decide the game in their favour. The most interesting bet is probably a bet on goals. FC Midtjylland have a very strong attack and it is no coincidence that they have played 10 out of 14 away matches have ended with more than 2.5 goals. Should FC Midtjylland get the lead, it would also push FC Vestsjælland forward, since they need a win.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.05 at Ladbrokes

Brøndby-FC Nordsjælland preview

Thursday 21/5 20.00

Brøndby (3rd) look very strong at the moment. They create a lot of chances, and the better fields, as we are nearing summer, are definitely suiting to their style of playing. Brøndby will be motivated to continue winning in order to finish in 3rd. Brøndby will have to do without central midfielder Christian Nørgaard who is suspended. Nørgaard has been playing excellently lately, so it is blow, although Brøndby have some fine midfielders in the squad. Central defender Dario Dumic missed last match with an injury, and he is also doubtful here. Dumic is more easily replaced. FC Nordsjælland (7th) are experiencing a poor period at the moment. They have lost three matches in a row and played quite poorly in the process. The absence of some key players has not helped either. Team top goalscorer, winger Uffe Bech, is out with an injury, while left back (and captain) Patrick Mtiliga and goalkeeper David Jensen are both doubtful. FC Nordsjælland’s best weapon in the absence of Bech, fellow winger Joshua John left last match with an injury and risk missing this match. Thus, in total it can be an injury-weakened, demoralised and demotivated team that arrives in Brøndby here.

Brøndby are looking really good at the moment. They are solid at the back and dangerous in attack. At the same, they should be very motivated for this match. The opposite is the case for FC Nordsjælland who risk falling completely apart. Should be fine value in home team here.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -1) – 2.08 at Unibet

Esbjerg-SønderjyskE preview

Thursday 21/5 20.00

Esbjerg (9th) got some much-needed distance to the relegation line with a vital win in Farum (3-1 versus FC Nordsjælland). Esbjerg did it without two of their most important players, striker Daniel Larsson and midfielder Magnus Lekven. Larsson was sick and should return here, while the return of Lekven is more questionable. However, Esbjerg seem to have added some confidence with two wins in a row and it is obvious that the team possess more quality than the current position indicates. Esbjerg look especially strong in attack where Lasse Rise and Mick van Buren are good weapons, even if the speedy Daniel Larsson is out. SønderjyskE (10th) are a suddenly a huge part of the relegation battle. Especially since they face FC Vestsjælland during the last rounds. Therefore, they need to maintain a lead by at least 3 points (SønderjyskE have a much better goal difference than FC Vestsjælland). SønderjyskE do struggle at the moment. They have not won in the last seven league matches, but they should find some comfort in three draws in a row. Simultaneously, they have started scoring, something that had been an issue. SønderjyskE risk being without two veterans. Central defender Niels Lodberg and striker Tommy Bechmann are both struggling with minor injuries and could need a rest here.

Esbjerg are experiencing an upward form curve, but they have not been spectacular at home this season. Therefore, it should not justify the current odds for a home win. This match is set to be more equal, since SønderjyskE typically are a decent away team. A draw seems like a logical outcome here. This would give both teams some margin to FC Vestsjælland, which is all they have in mind currently. Draw is also the most typical result for both teams (Esbjerg 10 draws and SønderjyskE 15 draws), and it is overpriced at the moment.

Idea: X – 3.55 at Unibet

Week 29 round-up

Finally! A weekend with a plus. We waited way too long for this, but it was nice to see it finally happening. Tip of the Week is a on a good run with two weeks with success. We hope to keep it up in the remaining four rounds of the season. Next round is on Wednesday/Thursday, which puts some extra pressure on our preview department. It has only been feasible to make them straight away, which might make us unpopular for those who are waiting for odds from the Asian bookies, but we hope people are more interested in getting our previews now than not getting them at all. In general, we aim to give the market a bit more time to settle before giving picks.