28. aug. 2013

AaB-Brøndby


Sunday 1/9 19.00
AaB (7th) are difficult to understand. Their performances are not very stable. The only thing that is sure is their incapability in the front line, where the gap from Helenius is uncovered. New striker Anders Jacobsen got his first goal last weekend, but he looks nothing more than average. On the bright side is that their backline looks strong and it will be improved with the return of right back Dalsgaard. Brøndby (12th) are not a stable team either. After a splendid performance against Randers last weekend, where Brøndby only failed to capitalize, Brøndby shockingly lost to 1st Division club Hvidovre in the cup. Another sign that this Brøndby team is not over their troubles from last season. They have offensive quality though in the strong Zohore and the visionary Kahlenberg, but they might need a few matches before they can fully realise their potential.

Is this the turning point of Brøndby? We doubt it, but it will happen sooner or later. Our option is then to give AaB a bet, but we have decided not to recommend it since AaB are simply too volatile and toothless in the frontline.

Idea: 1 – 2.50 Betfair

Viborg-FC Copenhagen


Sunday 1/9 17.00
Viborg (5th) are the team to beat after two magical rounds. Striker Thomas Dalgaard is on a roll with seven goals in the last four matches. Despite of this good period, Viborg are yet to fully convince that they are for real. In their latest matches they have been able to capitalize on their opponents mistakes, while limiting their own risk. Truth is that Viborg have been highly efficient and although it is impressive it is natural to ask questions as to whether this can continue. Captain Mikkel Rask returns from suspension. FC Copenhagen (11th) thought that new coach Solbakken would bring an end to their horrible situation. That was not the case since FC Copenhagen was unable to beat a newcomer at home soil. Now the other newcomer awaits and pressure to succeed is high. Chances are not getting better with the recent news that new striker Fanendo Adi is banned. Alternatives Vetokele and Santin have not scored for a long time, so Copenhagen will probably have to look for goals from their midfielders.

FC Copenhagen have won the last five H2H’s in Viborg and even though these matches are years back, it tells a story about the support that Copenhagen always have in Viborg. We are sure that Copenhagen will dominate the match. But can they find the net? And Viborg; can they keep their efficiency high? If anything our best solution is to go for a AH 1(+0.75) or a under 2.5 bet.

Ideas:
Under 2.5 – 2.16 Betfair
AH 1(+0.75) – 1.95 Bet365

Randers-SønderjyskE


Monday 2/9 19.00
Randers (6th) are clear favourites in this match. This is because SønderjyskE (10th) have many injured players and have scored only four goals in six matches. The problem of getting the ball in the back of the net was once again clear when SønderjyskE won only on a late goal against the 2nd Division B1908 in the cup this midweek. SønderjyskE's game is not in top form at the moment. In the last two matches they have not created many clear cut chances. Their creativity has been almost non-existing. Their striker Tommy Bechmann might be able to play since he got a comeback with 20 minutes on the pitch in the last match against AGF in a match where SønderjyskE were not able to have a full bench due to injuries. Bechmann is a key player but not a quality goal scorer that SønderjyskE needs and the need for a striker is big. Kenneth Fabricius might be able to play but nothing is certain and he is not much of an alternative either. The same things cannot be said about Randers. Ronnie Schwartz is a contender for the top scorer title this season and his partner Nicolai Brock-Madsen is also a goal scorer. These quality strikers will be too much to handle for the weakened SønderjyskE defense that will be missing the center back Hallgrimur Jonasson due to suspension and that is why Randers can come out on top in this match.

With such good odds for a Randers side that is a clear favourite to win, it would be a shame not to give it a go.

Tip of the Week: 1 - 2.05 Mermaidbet

Esbjerg fB-FC Midtjylland


Sunday 1/9 15.00
FC Midtjylland (1st) are six games into the season still undefeated and have shown great form. Especially Morten ’Duncan’ Rasmussen has been one of the reasons to this success with five goals. His partner in crime Sylvester Igboun is out for the game and this is a huge blow to the offense. Esbjerg (4th) started well and many thought they would be a contender, but with two defeats in a row and an important Europa League match at St. Etienne in which they lead 4-3 aggregate they might be in over their heads. Esbjerg showed in the last match against Viborg that the effect of two games a week might be too much. These two team are the top scoring teams in the Superliga and Esbjerg’s defense are not top tier at the moment.

We reckon that the loss of Igboun might be too much for FC Midtjylland so we will not recommend it. But the odds are decent so an away win might be worth betting on.

Idea: 2 – 3.00 Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-FC Vestsjælland


Sunday 1/9 11.00
FC Nordsjælland (9th) have had a terrible start to the season. This is mainly due to a long list of injuries. Although Nordsjælland have tried to fill this injury gap with new players, it has not worked. They are forced to change their line-up each week, so there has not been any consistency. Furthermore they have a very important Europa League match on Thursday, where risks concerning players with minor injuries will be taken. This could have an affect on this match, where those players might need a break. A very likely candidate for a break is top scorer Morten Nordstrand. He has been the scorer of the last four Nordsjælland goals and no clear alternative is available. Newcomers FC Vestsjælland (8th) have left a positive impression. Especially when playing away they have been good at defending and then launching dangerous counterattacks. This has paid off, since they are undefeated at foreign turf. Last weekend they created surprisingly many chances against FC Copenhagen’s defence and against a fragile Nordsjælland backline they should be capable of doing the same. Only concern is the injury to veteran Dennis Sørensen in last match. He is tied team top scorer and could be difficult to replace.

This is probably the perfect time to face Nordsjælland. They are struggling with injuries and having played an important match just three days prior might affect them mentally and physically. Vestsjælland on the other hand are on a hot streak without defeat in four matches.

Recommendation: X2 – 2.10 Bet365

OB-AGF


Friday 30/8 18.30
OB (2nd) will face AGF in a battle for second place. It is highly surprising that OB are in this position since they were the weakest team by miles in the spring season (only seven points in 14 matches). The return of talisman midfielder Rasmus Falk and a defensive swap between Daniel Høegh and Kasper Larsen appear crucial to this sudden change. As a result they have a lot more energy in midfield and their defence look a lot more confident than it did in spring. Their main problem is their lack of a quality striker, which is highly visible in the statistics. In this season OB have not scored more than one goal in five out of six matches. AGF (3rd) is also a surprise visit to the top since they tied for 2nd weakest with only 11 points in the spring. They have strengthened their squad with right back Alexander Andersen and the return of striker Søren Larsen to full match fitness. Larsen is a vital player for AGF. Last weekend he made the difference with two second half goals and he is brimming with confidence at the moment. AGF will be without key defender Anders Kure. OB are not challenged by new injuries.

This is a very equal match. OB should be small favourites because of the homefield advantage. But a slim win or a draw is probably the most likely outcome and therefore we find good value in the under 2.5 goals bet.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 2.18 Betfair

Welcome to Superliga Bets


Welcome to this side providing short quality Superliga previews and recommendations. Our goal is to give you:

Tip of the Week (TOTW**) - One per week. Expected payback percentage >110%

Recommendations (RMD*) - Expected payback percentage >100%

Ideas (I) - Expect nothing

Naturally there are no guarantees in betting, so a surplus is not a sure thing. But we would not do this unless we believed that we could provide a reasonable surplus over a longer time horizon. If you are satisfied with this site, please recommend it to your friends. If you want to support us, then we would ask you to sign up at the bookmakers through our links (will hopefully be up next week). The first previews will be posted today. You can contact us at superligabets@gmail.com and follow us at https://www.facebook.com/superligabets or https://twitter.com/SuperligaBets