FC Midtjylland-Brøndby preview

Monday 25/5 19.00

FC Midtjylland (1st) gained the title on Thursday and we out celebrating all night. They will probably not be overly motivated for this match, although it is against Brøndby and they have an impressive home record to maintain (won all 15 homes games this season). The squad situation is finally starting to look good and with midfielder Tim Sparv returning from a ban, they are only set to be without a few defensive regulars: captain Kristian Bak Bach and Jim Larsen, but they have been without them for some time. Goalkeeper Johan Dahlin is also in doubt. FC Midtjylland have been so impressive at home this season, where they record a magnificent league high SoTR of 75%. Brøndby (3rd) are playing for 3rd place and they should be able to seal the deal with just one win in the last three games. Brøndby will look to welcome back gifted central midfielder Christian Nørgaard, who has really been a joy to witness here in 2015. There is some doubt regarding another good midfielder, Ferhan Hasani who was unable to participate in the last match. Hasani is an important player for a match like this, because he has the physique to match FC Midtjylland. This is something that you could doubt that several Brøndby players could struggle with (wingers Rashani, Szymanowski and Hjulsager just to name a few). Here you will probably also find the explanation why Brøndby typically do rather poor away from home – they are often dominated by physically stronger teams. They only rank 6th based on away SoTR (46%).

It is a difficult match to predict since you don’t know how much power FC Midtjylland will enter this match with. If they were going for the win 100% there should be clear value in the home win, but the current situation is not comforting for a home win. Therefore we keep this as an idea. In any case, odds 2.25 for a home win for a team that have won all home games this season against a team that tend to struggle in away games (to be fair Brøndby have won the last four away games, but against weak opponents), seems like too much.

Idea: 1 – 2.25 at Tipico

UPDATE: Captian Bak Bach is back for FC Midtjylland, while central defender Erik Sviatchenko is newest absence. This should leave them at around the same level defensively. Hasani misses the match for Brøndby.