Week 18 round-up

2015 is over. It was not to become one for the history books for Superligabets. A bad spring was followed by a mediocre autumn. This has been a personal low point when it comes to Superliga-betting. Therefore it was nice to see the last round ending with a big surplus as it hopefully signals better times ahead next season. A good surplus led to a plus for the season, which I aim to keep up in 2016. I hope you enjoyed reading the previews throughout the season, although the profit was not as expected. Feedback is always welcome, so let me know if there is something you desire from Superligabets or if you simply just enjoy the previews.

Week 18 Superliga previews

AGF-FC Midtjylland

AGF are among the weakest teams in the league at the moment. They lack unity and some quality in attack and defence. They have played several decent matches lately, but they are not winning due to the lack of efficiency in both ends. Especially the goalkeeper Rasmussen is a big liability since he lacks height (and also holds the lowest saving rate in the league), he should get in trouble against FC Midtjylland’s renowned set pieces. No injury or suspension worries. FC Midtjylland, the reigning champions, got a much-needed break with the postponement of their match last weekend. Now they have had a weekend to get fully back to gear mentally and physically. They are still bothered by a handful of injuries and doubtful players (Duncan and Sisto), while right back Rømer is banned here. Overall they still have a very strong central axis with Sviatchenko and Hansen at back, Sparv and Poulsen in midfield and a solid striker (Pusic, Duncan or Onuachu) on top.

AGF have only won one match in the last 14 games. FC Midtjylland are a top team that although they have been lacking confidence lately, should arrive to this match with renewed energy. FC Midtjylland have a good history against AGF, having won the last four head-to-heads with a 11-0 score. I happily accept the current price for the away team here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH -0.25) – 1.90 at Bet365

Hobro-Randers

Ove Pedersen got a very bad start in charge of Hobro as the failed to create a single shot on target against SønderjyskE last weekend. Actually quite concerning as Hobro had their strong offensive trio back. Pedersen could need a winter break to get his ideas fully into play. Hobro have a rather vulnerable defence, but Pedersen is likely to take a defensive minded approach to protect it. Midfielder Sane is banned. Randers have had a slightly disappointing season after a great performance in the last season. They have not been as consistent as usually, perhaps due to a number of bans and injuries constantly forcing changes. For this match, strong winger Borring (6 goals this season) is out with a ban, while two central defenders, Agesen and Tverskov, are injured forcing young Bager into action.

This is a local derby and it is usually intense and tight matches between the two. Randers have a stronger team and deserve to be favourites, but I don’t see Hobro being humiliated here. Given the price, I think the home side is the most interesting.

Idea: 1 (AH +0.75) – 1.85 at Bet365

Esbjerg-SønderjyskE

Esbjerg provided the first signs of improvement against OB after a miserable season. They lost 2-1 but were dominant before the break, where there high pressing strategy really paid off. It seems like they are starting to get a direction as to how to play under new head coach Jonas Dal. Central defender Stenderup returns from ban, but he is unlikely to be a big help to a very weak backline. He replaces fellow defender Almebäck who is banned. Esbjerg improved a lot in midfield with the return of Jeppe Andersen from a long injury break. SønderjyskE have over-performed this season. They have been quite efficient; especially winger Absalonsen is red-hot at the moment. SønderjyskE don’t have the quality to beat the strongest teams in the league, but they are really good against the rest of the teams as they are great at implementing their strategy (defensive commitment and counter-attacking). SønderjyskE have some injuries, but nothing new.

SønderjyskE won the last match in Esbjerg 4-0. We had it as Tip of the Week at 3.70. This time the price of away win is 3.00. It is certainly not a good match-up for Esbjerg and it is no coincidence they have lost the last two matches against SønderjyskE’s dangerous counter-attackers. Pick the away win here, although the price is not big value this time. Over is also a good idea when Esbjerg are one of the teams. I expect both teams to go for three points, which increase the chance of a high-scoring attack.

Idea: 2 – 3.00 at Nordicbet

Over 2.5 goals – 1.95 at Bet365

UPDATE: Andersen and central defender Jakobsen are both absent here. Especially the former is bad news for the home team and can explain the drop in odds for the away team.

FC Nordsjælland-Brøndby

FC Nordsjælland are really struggling due to absence of key players. Striker Bruninho who is team top goalscorer and offensive star is doubtful, pacey winger John is injured and left back and captain Mtiliga is banned. FC Nordsjælland lack squad depth, so it is problematic with these absences. This means that FC Nordsjælland will field a very young team against Brøndby. Only reason for optimism is the advantage of the artificial home turf. Brøndby also have some concerns. They have played two bad matches after a strong period. For this match, they have some concerns as defensive midfielder Austin and striker Elmander are banned, while midfielder Phiri is doubtful. Brøndby have the replacements to field a strong team, but they don’t have momentum at the moment.

Two teams low on momentum and with important absences. I believe Brøndby are less weakened by the absences and also have a stronger team – and most importantly, I struggle to see how FC Nordsjælland should hurt Brøndby if they are without John and Bruninho.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 1.78 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-OB

FC Copenhagen have struggled offensively in the last two matches, where they have not scored. FC Copenhagen have suffered due to absence of box-to-box midfielder Delaney and striker Santander. Santander returns here leaving some reason for optimism ahead of the match, although Delaney would have been a more important addition. FC Copenhagen probably have the strongest team in Denmark, but they are not performing at maximum currently. OB are starting to come alive. The defence is looking better, although the goalkeeper Koval is very insecure. Offensively, they are a top team mainly due to the great mind of Falk and the finishing abilities of Festersen.

For OB to get points, you have the impression that you need to keep the opponent from getting too many shots on target, as Koval is not a quality keeper. Against FC Copenhagen you can doubt whether this will be possible. However, OB have so much offensively quality that they can make something happen despite of FC Copenhagen’s strong defence. This is a no bet for me. If anything, I would make a big gamble and go for a lot of goals, as OB are magnets for goal-frenzy matches (5 out of 17 matches over 4.5 goals this season).

Idea: Over 4.5 goals – 6.75 at Unibet

AaB-Viborg

AaB are the best team in the league currently. They are in great form and offensively; they can really make something happen with striker Spalvis as the best player in the league this autumn. For this match, the vital central midfielder Risgård returns from ban, while winger Børsting is a new addition to list of suspended players. AaB don’t have the strongest defence, but overcomes this by taking dominance of the match through their intelligent midfielders. Offensively, they seem almost unstoppable. Viborg could be the team to stop them. They have not conceded in the last two matches, and overall look very solid defensively. This is largely due to the tactic, as Viborg field a team with a lot of defensive minded players. They have some offensive X-factor in striker Deble and winger Akharraz, but they mostly get points through being solid at the back. Player-by-player Viborg are not that strong, but they are really committed and hard working.

AaB lost in Viborg two months ago in a match they dominated at first, but they failed to take advantage resulting in Viborg getting into the game. However, AaB have boosted their confidence since that match and with the home advantage, Viborg will find it difficult to keep AaB down for 90 minutes.

Recommendation: 1 – 1.70 at Sportingbet

Week 17 round-up

6th round in a row with success for the Tip of the Week - again due to a late goal. We appreciate that as it was otherwise a very disappointing round. Find the results below.