Esbjerg-Silkeborg preview

Saturday 9/5 17.00

Esbjerg (10th) must be feeling hard done at the moment. In the past week they were knocked out in the cup semi final after looking destined for the final for 70 minutes and this was followed by a 2-1 loss to FC Copenhagen in a match Esbjerg leaded until the 73th minute. Esbjerg have looked improved in recent matches, but the defence has not looked very solid. For this match, veteran Hans-Henrik Andreasen returns from a ban. This is great timing since the solid defensive midfielder Magnus Lekven is banned. In attack, Esbjerg will have Lasse Rise back from injury and Mick van Buren back from a ban. Therefore there should be plenty of attacking options for head coach Niels Frederiksen, who is likely to keep Daniel Larsson as his main striker. The speedy Swede has looked really good lately, but just lacked the end product: goals. Esbjerg are in a pressured situation with a gap of only 3 points to the relegation line. They will have to win here, why several tickets have been given away for free, so many spectators are expected here. Silkeborg (12th) will be relegated with a loss here, but they are set to go down in any case. The motivation should not be very high, but Silkeborg want to leave a good impression before the relegation. They could have all players to choose from here with strong midfielder Emil Scheel being only doubtful player. He has missed the last seven matches with an injury, so he will probably not get a starting role. Silkeborg have been highly efficient in 2015, which has covered the poor overall performance. Their SoTR over the last six games is by far the league lowest: 31%. Nevertheless, Silkeborg have actually not been that bad in away matches, where they ranked 9th in the league based on a SoTR of 41%. Silkeborg seem to prefer the away matches where they can be very compact defensively and just look for counter-attacking opportunities.

Esbjerg will come out with fire in the eyes. They need a win here, but it might not be as easy as they would wish. Esbjerg have problems in front of goal and they have a tendency to struggle in home games against “weaker” opponents. They scored last weekend, but only through an own goal. Otherwise, they have not scored in the last three league games. Silkeborg have nothing to play for, but they usually put in a professional effort in away matches. They have not lost an away game with more than one goal since November. They have not changed away from the defensive approach despite of going behind with one goal. Therefore, the value seems to be in the away team here.

Idea: 2 (AH +1) – 2.05 at Bet365

UPDATE: Silkeborg will be without team top goalscorer Nicolaj Agger. This is a big minus since he draws a lot of attention, why it will also make it more difficult for his offensive teammates. The odds have also dropped to 1.975, why there should be no value left.