Week 26 round-up

Another bad round. That makes it six in a row. We really have a hard time predicting the league at the moment. There seems to be no consistency in the performances of the teams. One week they are are excellent, the next, they are shit. We had some success with a nice Randers win against FC Copenhagen, but otherwise this was a round to forget. We hope to return to winning ways next weekend, but the teams are surely not doing their best to help us at the moment. We hope that some kind of normality soon returns, so we can continue bringing you nice value.

Esbjerg-OB preview

Friday 24/4 18.30

Esbjerg (10th) are doing poor in the league, and the situation is starting to look a bit problematic with FC Vestsjælland just six points behind. Esbjerg have lacked power since selling three key players in the winter break. Esbjerg still have a fine team, but they struggle with the consistency and perhaps also with the focus. Esbjerg have a second leg cup semi final in the following week, which is undoubtedly more import for the players. For this match, Esbjerg will be without the suspended duo of midfielder Erik Friberg and left back Jonas Knudsen. Especially Knudsen is an important player, since he is strong both in terms of defensive stability and offensive contribution. In his absence, Esbjerg are forced to move a central defender to the left back position. OB (9th) are quite comparable to Esbjerg. They have also been poor in 2015, and they need to start earning some points to move away from the relegation line. OB will be without captain Ari Skulason, but he is not the most important captain in the league (has been benched on several occasions), but it is concerning that the likely replacement left back Mikkel Kirkeskov has only seen 1 minute on the pitch in 2015. OB have some great offensive players in Rasmus Falk and Thomas Dalgaard, but they are not at the top of their game currently. Another good offensive player, winger Emil Larsen remains on the bench after some negative comments towards his own fans (plus he has been terrible when given the chance).

The pitch is awful in Esbjerg, and it would be surprising if the match turns out to be a good one. Especially since none of them can afford to lose. OB do not have a cup match in mind, and this should be a small advantage in a match, where we believe Esbjerg are too big favourites. There is a reason that they have only won 3 out of 13 home games this season.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.90 at Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-Silkeborg preview

Saturday 25/4 17.00

FC Nordsjælland (6th) have struggled in the past few matches and several absences could be a important factor. For this match, they will benefit from the return of central defender Andreas Maxsø and midfielder Martin Vingaard. Vital captain Patrick Mtiliga remains doubtful, while defensive midfielder Lasse Petry is a new absence due to a ban. In total, FC Nordsjælland look stronger for this match, where especially the defence should look more solid with the return of Maxsø. Offensively, FC Nordsjælland have had a few poor matches, but with quality players like Joshua John, Uffe Bech and David Moberg-Karlsson in the squad, they should be able to cause problems for Silkeborg. Silkeborg (12th) have seven points in the last four away matches, which is more than half their total sum of points for the season. Silkeborg like to sit back and frustrate the opponents through solid defensive work. They are not a team suited from coming from behind, so they have to be very determined from the start. For this match, they will be without the suspended midfield captain Frank Hansen, while midfield companion Emil Scheel looks to miss another match. Silkeborg could miss Hansen’s influence, but in terms of play, he is not an important absence. Silkeborg have been quite lucky in 2015. They score the lowest SoTR in the league of 36.7% and the stats indicate that they have been overly efficient in front of goal (11 goals on 22 shots on target).

The question is how the match evolves? Silkeborg will undoubtedly sit back and try to keep the match deadlocked for as long as possible. However, if FC Nordsjælland take the lead, their great offensive players should get more space, and the match could turn ugly. We take a slight gamble and pick a FC Nordsjælland by more than one. The alternative is that Silkeborg keep the score even.

Idea: 1 (AH -1.5) – 2.43 at Unibet

UPDATE: Mtiliga is back in the squad, which is great news for FC Nordsjælland who might be able to field the strongest possible formation. Scheel out for Silkeborg, who have only called up 16 players.

SønderjyskE-AaB preview

Sunday 26/4 14.00

SønderjyskE (8th) have, apart from 4-1 win in Aalborg, played a rather poor 2015. They created many chances at the start of the year, but the slump in results is starting to affect the players. The conclusion is a demoralised SønderjyskE team who are more focused on getting this season over (and perhaps making a sensational comeback in the second leg of the midweek cup semi-final against FC Vestsjælland (0-2 in first match)). Strong central defender Pierre Kanstrup is set to return after missing the last match with sickness. Striker Tommy Bechmann and right back Baldur Sigurdsson remain on the injury list. SønderjyskE really struggle offensively since striker Marvin Pourie is experiencing a poor period, and they will look forward to get Bechmann back. AaB (7th) are another underperforming team. They have only gained one point in the last five matches, which is terrible for the titleholders. The situation is especially concerning since AaB had the lead in three of the matches. A partial explanation for the poor period is a large number of injuries and suspensions. In the last match AaB were without three suspended regulars (captain Würtz, Enevoldsen and Dalsgaard), but three regulars are new in the penalty box here (Petersen, Risgård and Børsting). Especially the absence of central defender Kenneth Emil Petersen is concerning if Rasmus Thelander remains absent with an injury. In that case, AaB will have to line-up with a young and inexperienced central defence. Offensively, AaB have struggled, and Enevoldsens return could be a vital addition in order to improve this.

Due to the many absences of AaB, SønderjyskE should be slight favourites, but nothing more. They are a terrible home team, and they could have their main focus on the cup match on Wednesday. AaB just want to get some points, and lack some offensive quality. Both teams have many draws this season, and this result would probably be acceptable for both here.

Idea: X – 3.30 at Bet365

UPDATE: Thelander is back in the squad, but not expected to start here. Many absences for both teams!

Brøndby-FC Vestsjælland preview

Sunday 26/4 17.00

Brøndby (4th) did not get the expected boost from a new home pitch. They considered their only second home loss for the season against Hobro, and a match were Brøndby’s offensive issues were obvious. Johan Elmander is not the player he once were, and head coach Frank should really consider other options in attack. Defensively Brøndby look to get a big boost from talismanic defender Daniel Agger who missed the last two matches with suspension. New suspended players are defensive midfielder Lebogang Phiri and winger Ferhan Hasani, two of Brøndby’s better players in 2015. On paper, Brøndby should have some decent alternatives in the squad, but they have really not impressed during this season. Another concern is the probable absence of central midfielder Thomas Kahlenberg who is important for Brøndby’s offensive production. FC Vestsjælland (11th) are a team with great momentum at the moment. Seven points over the last three matches shows a clear picture of a team with renewed confidence. The return of strong left back Michael Lumb seems to have been the catalyst for this sudden change of morale. Nevertheless, FC Vestsjælland look quite good at the moment and they have a fit squad to choose from. Their defence is looking solid for once and offensively they have some quality options in Rasmus Festersen and Apostolos Vellios.

Brøndby will get a big boost from the home fans, who will push them forward. Brøndby should dominate ball possession and have the most chances, but FC Vestsjælland are a dangerous counter-attacking team, and this is unlikely to be as easy a match for Brøndby as the bookies predict. FC Vestsjælland are high on momentum and could snatch a great result here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +1) – 1.87 at Unibet

Randers-FC Copenhagen preview

Sunday 26/4 19.00

Randers (3rd) are still in 3rd place, but it is more since the nearest rivals continues to stumble than due to own performance. Randers have not won in seven matches! The last four matches have ended in draws, but it is clear that Randers lack confidence at the moment. They usually appear as a defensive solid team that is very physical in its approach, but in the absence of captain Christian Keller they have had a different appearance. However, Keller could return here and it would be a vital player to get back. Other players that also are set to return are winger Jonas Borring and central midfielder Nicolai Poulsen. Thus, Randers could be capable of fielding the strongest team for once. FC Copenhagen (2nd) have had some rough weeks in terms of squad fitness. They have just lost two of the best players for the season, striker Andreas Cornelius and winger Youssef Toutouh both suffered serious injuries during last week. Central midfielder Christian Poulsen left the last match early with an injury, while fellow midfielder Daniel Amartey is banned. In total, FC Copenhagen’s team looks quite slim, especially in the central midfield. Offensively, they can appreciate the quality of Nicolai Jørgensen and the improving form of Steve de Ridder.

The squad situation will be decisive for the odds movement here. If Poulsen is out for FC Copenhagen and Keller returns for Randers as the latest information indicates, Randers look to be able to dominate the central midfield. In that case, they should also have good chances of taking a win, and in our opinion this match should be way more even than odds suggest. Also, FC Copenhagen play a cup match in midweek, and the last time they did that some players were rested.

Recommendation: 1 – 3.10 at Danske Spil

Hobro-FC Midtjylland preview

Monday 27/4 19.00

Hobro (5th) are a fantastic story. From a town of just 12.000 inhabitants and with a team of mainly semi-professional players, they have beaten the odds and are now just 1 point short of 3rd place and European qualification. The secret is the amazing team effort. Everyone is 100% focused on the best of the team and this means that Hobro are almost always well organised. Add to that the offensive quality of players like Quincy Antipas and Mads Hvilsom who can create something out of nothing, and you have a decent team. Strong left back Jacob Tjørnelund returns from suspension, while winger Martin Mikkelsen is banned. FC Midtjylland (1st) are winning even when they play poorly. This was the case last weekend against Silkeborg. FC Midtjylland have been quite poor in terms of play in 2015, but despite of this they continue to be very efficient, especially in attack where FC Midtjylland have scored on 46.2% of their shots on target in 2015 (only beaten by Silkeborg). A reason to the drop in level for FC Midtjylland is the number of injuries. For this match, goalkeeper Johan Dahlin, defender Jim Larsen, winger Pione Sisto, midfielder Izunna Uzochukwu and midfielder Kristoffer Olsson all look to miss the match. Three of them would be sure starters. On the positive note, offensive midfielder Petter Andersson should be back in the starting line-up after missing some matches with an injury. Despite of all the absences, FC Midtjylland still have a solid squad and should be able to field a strong team with good players on all positions.

Hobro have had an amazing season, but they have really struggled against FC Midtjylland. In the two matches of the season, they have lost with a total score of 8-1. This should also explain the very drastic odds. FC Midtjylland are big favourites despite of not having been outstanding in away matches. They do surely have a good match-up against Hobro who struggle to contain FC Midtjylland’s best players like Pusic and Igboun. Odds on FC Midtjylland are not interesting though. Instead we would bet on goals. Hobro look strong offensively at the moment and FC Midtjylland are sure to create some danger.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.02 at Unibet

Week 25 round-up

Another negative round, but we are really experiencing a period, where we are constantly just one goal short of great results. This time, we lacked another FC Midtjylland goal for our Tip of the Week. We are still positive and believe that better times are just around the corner. Still surplus for the season, but we need to start picking up some success. Next bets likely to arrive on Thursday. Stats here:

FC Midtjylland-Silkeborg preview

Friday 17/4 18.30

FC Midtjylland (1st) look certain to take the championship title after yet another marginal win. This time it was in Aalborg, where FC Midtjylland won a very even match after a freak deflection in the 93th minute. FC Midtjylland are not playing as good as in autumn, but they are getting good results anyway. A partial explanation for the weakening in play is a large number of injuries. For this match, the goalkeeper Dahlin is newest absence, but alternative Haugaard will probably not have to work hard here. Two important players who were out in the last match should return here: central defender Jim Larsen and offensive midfielder Petter Andersson. Especially Andersson could be important in a match against Silkeborg, where his creativity will come in handy. Silkeborg (12th) are back on the ground after a 0-4 loss versus FC Copenhagen. We believe they had it coming. They have been incredibly efficient in 2015 (scoring percent above 50%!), and their fundamental stats are not spectacular. Based on their shots dominance (SoTR), they are worst in the league in 2015 with a 36.8% SoTR. This means that they only have 36.8% of the shots on target in the matches they play. In other words, they are on average overmatched. This should also be the case here. Strong midfielder Emil Scheel is still out, and Silkeborg are only able to name 17 out of 18 possible for the called squad.

FC Midtjylland are amazing at home, where they have won all 12 matches with a score of 29-6. They have an in-form player like Pusic on top (6 goals in 7 FC Midtjylland matches), and it is difficult to see how poor Silkeborg should cope with that. This should be a clear win for FC Midtjylland, and we would be surprised if it is kept to a one goal win.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -1.5) – 1.90 at Bet365

FC Vestsjælland-AaB preview

Saturday 18/4 15.00

FC Vestsjælland look odds on to relegate, but even though they must be mentally on top at the moment. They have not lost in the last two league matches, but more importantly, they won the first semi final cup leg against SønderjyskE with 2-0 and they are well on the way to reach their first cup final ever. The return leg is in the end of April, so it should not influence the dispositions of this match, unless some players are tired after the match on Wednesday. FC Vestsjælland have looked better in the last matches. The return of left back Michael Lumb is in important, but the new arriving players (Akharraz, Jonsson, Raitala and Vellios) are also starting to show what they can offer. The end result is a solid team with good confidence. AaB (7th) cannot be satisfied with how the season is evolving. As defending champions, expectations were to more than a position in the lower half, but AaB have lacked consistency throughout the season. For this match, the situation is particularly grim. Key players are banned: the defensive midfielder (and captain) Rasmus Würtz, right back Henrik Dalsgaard and the most in-form offensive player Thomas Enevoldsen. Furthermore, central defender Rasmus Thelander and team top goalscorer Anders K. Jacobsen are both doubtful with injuries. AaB should be able to field a decent side despite of all the absences, but it is clearly not an optimal approach.

Confidence is very important in football, and these team are in each end of the scale at the moment. AaB have not won in four matches, and look to be without several important players, while FC Vestsjælland are on the way to a cup final and are starting to deliver in the league too. The question is the motivation; will FC Vestsjælland have the necessary focus four days after their big cup win? If so, there is no reason for them being clear underdogs here – an even match is to be expected. 

Idea: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.825 at Bet365

UPDATE: Thelander is out. Jacobsen is back but expected to be on the bench. FC Vestsjælland with strongest squad called up.

OB-SønderjyskE preview

Sunday 19/4 14.00

OB (9th) won last weekend in Farum after three consecutive losses. A nice win for OB after a great tactical disposition by Ove Pedersen, who used Martin Spelmann in a offensive midfield position, where he excelled an scored twice. Otherwise, OB have not really been to impressive lately, but with all players fit, there should be potential for success. However, the ongoing spectacle regarding normal key player, left-winger Emil Larsen, is not good for the club or the player (Larsen made some negative comments regarding the fans). Pedersen should not use Larsen in the starting line-up until the situation have calmed. SønderjyskE (8th) have limited motivation for the league. The main motivation is for the cup, but this got off to a bad start with a 2-0 loss at FC Vestsjælland in midweek. SønderjyskE are not successful at the moment. They create a lot of chances, but they are all too inefficient. Based on SoTR (59.1%), they are the second most dominant team in the league in 2015. The worst problem is actually the poor form of goalkeeper Marvin Skender, who has a disappointing saving percentage of only 55.6% (league average is 71.2%). SønderjyskE having to do without the injured striker Tommy Bechmann and right back Baldur Sigurdsson does not improve the situation. However, this is an away match, and this typically suits SønderjyskE, who have won more matches away than at home this season. Away matches suit their style of playing: counter-attacking!

OB have a completely fit team and comes straight from a difficult away win, while SønderjyskE have three consecutive losses (including cup loss) and have to do without some regulars. This should be a must bet on OB, but in fact we would do just the opposite. OB are a not compelling at home, while SønderjyskE are strong away, and has delivered some fine efforts in 2015. We expect this match to be more even than the odds predict.

Idea: 2 (DNB) – 2.32 at Unibet

Brøndby-Hobro preview

Sunday 19/4 17.00

Brøndby (3rd) have finally received a new pitch. The previous was terrible and not suited for football, resulting in some terrible matches from Brøndby were technical football was impossible. With a new pitch, there should be room for technique and passing football. Maybe, it is not a coincidence that the new pitch arrives just when they meet a physical Hobro team. Brøndby are in the 3rd position, where the aim to be at the end of the season. They have delivered some fine efforts in 2015, so remaining in this position should not be impossible. However, for this match they will have to do without talismanic central defender Daniel Agger, who is suspended. Furthermore, experienced midfielder Thomas Kahlenberg could also be absent here. The two are probably most vital players for Brøndby. As a positive note, striker Johan Elmander returns from suspension. Brøndby should look to play a fast passing game in order to open up the slow Hobro backline. Hobro (6th) are in the top half after 24 round. That would probably have given you around odds 100 at the start of the season! But they deserve to be here. Some players have really excelled, particularly right-winger Mads Hvilsom, who are second on the top goalscoring list, and has scored three goals in the last two matches. Hobro have a solid defence combined with a speedy attack (Hvilsom and Antipas). However, they will have to do without the strong left back Jacob Tjørnelund, and based on his level throughout the season, he will be hard to replace. Offensive midfielder Mikkel Thygesen is doubtful – he would be a great addition to the Hobro offense.

Hobro won the last two H2H’s with a combined 5-0, so Brøndby should be eager to take revenge here. They should be likely to do so, but the bookies are yet again underestimating Hobro. Brøndby have really had problems scoring in 2015 (only 6 goals in 7 league matches), and it is difficult to see why they should crush an in-form Hobro team, that has been remarkably strong at the back. Image has a big impact on the odds here, and this leaves good value for us how don’t care about image.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +1) – 1.825 at Bet365

UPDATE: Kahlenberg is out for Brøndby, while Thygesen is out for Hobro. Equally influential players for both teams.

FC Copenhagen-FC Nordsjælland preview

Sunday 19/4 19.30

FC Copenhagen (2nd) have had a rather poor week, despite of a 4-0 win in Silkeborg on Monday. In that match, they lost striker Andreas Cornelius due to serious ankle injury (don’t visit youtube). In midweek, they failed to beat Esbjerg at home in the first leg of the cup semi-final, the only competition, where FC Copenhagen really has something to play. In the league, they are pretty much stuck in 2nd place without realistic chances of reaching FC Midtjylland. For this match, they could be without wingers Amankwaa and Gislason who both missed the midweek cup match. FC Copenhagen will be even more reliable on attacker Nicolai Jørgensen, now the only other threat Andreas Cornelius is out for the season. FC Nordsjælland (5th) lost disappointingly at home to OB in last round. FC Nordsjælland need to pick up their game if they are to obtain 3rd place. They have some quality wingers in Bech, John and Moberg-Karlsson, but the rest is not good enough. The situation is not made easier by the absence of the suspended duo of midfielder Martin Vingaard and central defender Andreas Maxsø. Especially the latter is problematic since FC Nordsjælland have limited alternatives in the central defence, and they will probably have to use to unproven Mouritzen. That is, if left back Patrick Mtiliga returns from the injury that kept him out of the last. If not Mouritzen should get the chance on left back, while another player will have to get the unwanted position in the central defence. In any case, it will be a weakened backline FC Nordsjælland exhibits in Parken.

FC Copenhagen are probably not overly motivated here, but playing at home should always add a little extra. FC Copenhagen should be favourites against a FC Nordsjælland team with important absences and who are typically much weaker away than at home. However, the odds for a home win are not attractive. This is a no bet match for us, but if anything go for goals; FC Nordsjælland have some important defensive absences, and a strong offense.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.16 at Unibet

UPDATE: Høgli is out for FC Copenhagen, but the right back is replaceable with Remmer. Amankwaa and Gislason are back in the squad. FC Nordsjælland are without Mtiliga. A huge blow, which makes their backline look very vulnerable. Good for over bet, and a home win bet could also be considered around 1.70.

Esbjerg-Randers preview

Monday 20/4 19.00

Esbjerg (10th) should be a bit cautious with just 8 points to the relegation line, but otherwise the main focus should be on the cup, where they have a good starting point for the return leg of the cup after a 1-1 result away against FC Copenhagen. Esbjerg have a decent team, but they have clearly been left unsettled by the many transfers in the winter window, that saw three key players leave and four good players arrive. Head coach Niels Frederiksen also appears uncertain regarding the best formation, since he is continuously rotating. For this match, he will have to do without midfielder Erik Friberg who is suspended. Esbjerg should be capable of fielding a fine team here, but they could be more focused on the upcoming cup match. Randers (4th) are really experiencing a poor period. After three 2-1 losses, they have three consecutive 1-1 draws. Is the next a 2-1 winning period? Nevertheless, Randers have not been as good as in autumn. They have been short of confidence in recent matches, surely due to the results, but also due to the absence of some influential players. Right back Johnny Thomsen returned in last week, while captain Christian Keller is finally set to return here. This should help Randers be better organised, which has been an uncharacteristic problem in the recent matches. Central defender Mads Agesen returns from suspension.

Esbjerg typically have a hard time against Randers. It is no coincidence that they have lost six out of the last eight league head-to-heads. Esbjerg do not like Randers’ physical style and they are often dominated if they are not fully motivated. The home field advantage should add motivation, but the cup focus could be a negative influence. In any case, this should be a very even match, where we see no reason for Esbjerg’s role as favourite. Randers are back in the preferred eleven, that made them so strong in autumn.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 2.12 at Unibet

UPDATE: Captain Keller is out for Randers, which is a massively important absence, since he would be vital in the midfield battle against Esbjerg's Hans-Henrik Andreasen. The obvious new addition to the line-up, winger Borring is also out (Bjarnason would then have been used centrally). Instead, the most logical approach would be using Swede Joel Allansson in the midfield, but he has not impressed in the two starts he has had in 2015. No longer value in 2.12.

Week 24 round-up

Status quo. We had some good days, but a very bad Sunday. In total four successful bets and four losses. Especially the loss for AaB was painful, a very even match, where we had a DNB bet, but lost it due to a late goal on a deflected shot. Annoying. However, very nice to see our Tip of the Week being successful, although FC Copenhagen rested several players, and we were slightly concerned after the line-ups were published. We need to get some winning rounds soon, and hope to see it happen as soon as possible. Still unsure when next bets will arrive - but they will! Stay tuned.

Hobro-Esbjerg preview

Friday 10/4 18.30

Hobro are playing some solid football, and continues to surprise positively. Perhaps it is just the time to acknowledge that they are a decent side. They have good and motivated players in every line, and their work rate is amazing. Add to this that they in Mads Hvilsom has a excellent finisher, who is a clear number two on the league top goalscoring list with 12 goals. Hobro have benefitted with a great fitness condition in the squad, and they are rarely hit by injuries or suspensions. For this match, only concern is offensive midfielder Mikkel Thygesen who is reported to be doubtful. Esbjerg (9th) are difficult team to assess, since they made several new signing at the winter window and lost some vital players at the same time. Overall they seem a bit weaker, but they surely still have some quality in the side. The Swedish striker Daniel Larsson is getting closer to full fitness and he is starting to contribute with his great pace, which will cause Hobro big problems if they set their backline too high. Esbjerg will be strengthened by the return of left back Jonas Knudsen.

Esbjerg are likely to be dominant on the ball with Hobro trying to exploit counter-attacking opportunities. The match is likely to be quite equal, especially since Esbjerg tend to struggle against defensive minded teams. Thus, the value should be in the home team at current odds.

Idea: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.95 at Unibet

Randers-FC Vestsjælland preview

Saturday 11/4 17.00

Randers (3rd) have not won five consecutive matches, and the 3rd place has started to come under heavy pressure. They have perhaps needed some luck, but they have surely not played as team deserving a 3rd place. In the last match, they were without captain Keller, and it was very visible that he was needed to organise the midfield after Randers took the lead (eventually tied 1-1 versus AaB). Keller is reported doubtful, and we would be surprised to see him return just yet. Furthermore, central defender Mads Agesen is once again suspended (fifth time this season). In his absence, the young Jeppe Tverskov is expected to get a start, and he has looked competent. FC Vestsjælland (11th) are back in the survival race after a crucial 2-1 win in Odense, which was very deserved. In the last two matches, FC Vestsjælland have looked reborn, perhaps due to the return of strong left back Michael Lumb, who returned after an absence of almost a year. Nevertheless, they look more solid defensively, and have some nice offensive weapons in Festersen and Vellios. Eggert Jonsson returns from suspension, but after the fine performance of Henrik Madsen and Jan Kristiansen in the last match, he has probably lost his midfield spot.

This looks like a must win match for Randers. At home against the league’s worst away team. However, with the absences and poor recent showings, it could easily become a more difficult match than expected. FC Vestsjælland have found some confidence and appear to be experiencing an upswing in form. Randers should be favourites, they do have a better team, but the bookies could be overestimating them here.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +1) – 1.91 at Unibet

UPDATE: Keller is set to play, which is clearly to the advantage of the home team. Odds have also dropped on our recommendation (1.825 at Bet365 for instance), not really value left.

FC Nordsjælland-OB preview

Sunday 12/4 14.00

FC Nordsjælland (5th) got a lucky win in SønderjyskE last weekend. Lucky since they managed to defend a lead for more than a half despite of being a man less on the pitch after Andreas Maxsø’s dismissal. FC Nordsjælland did play a fine match until then, but they are clearly more comfortable at home on artificial grass. For this match, they will do without the suspended Maxsø, and this could mean that unproven youngster Nicklas Mouritsen will get the chance in the central defense. Positive news for the defence is the return of right back Mario Ticinovic from suspension. Central midfielders Hans Mulder and Martin Vingaard are  both doubtful, which could mean that Emiliano Marcondes will get a rare chance in the starting line-up. Offensively FC Nordsjælland look strong with winger Daniel Moberg-Karlsson in fantastic form (he has scored 7 goals in last 6 matches if you include international matches). OB (10th) experienced a tough loss at home to FC Vestsjælland on Tuesday. Tough, because they were ahead and because the loss puts them back into the relegation fight. After three consecutive losses, they need to improve their game, and head coach Ove Pedersen is very focused on re-establishing the defensive stability. Pedersen might change the formation to a 4-4-2, especially if striker Kenneth Zohore returns (he is doubtful). Offensively, they are very dependent of Rasmus Falk’s performance, since other profiles Emil Larsen and Thomas Dalgaard are underperforming at the moment.

FC Nordsjælland are a good home side (7 wins in 12 matches) and they will surely put a demoralised OB team under pressure. OB will try to respond with a aggressive approach, but the question is whether it will be enough. OB will surely be satisfied with a draw here to get some points accumulated. FC Nordsjælland have won the last three home H2H’s and we expect the streak to continue. Odds are already quite low, so not big value.

Idea: 1 – 2.05 at Danske Spil

AaB-FC Midtjylland preview

Sunday 12/4 17.00

AaB (6th) are still in the hunt for 3rd place, but they need to start gathering some wins soon. Their performance has been very volatile in 2015. In the last match against Randers, they showed some of the things that made them a title winner last season. They moved the ball well, and their direct passing style was able to put Randers under pressure until Rasmus Würtz got dismissed. Würtz’s dismissal was problematic for two reason; AaB failed to go after a win in Randers and they will be without their captain in this difficult match. The absence of Würtz is just another addition to a AaB team that has been heavily hit by injuries throughout the season. One player could return here; the central defender Rasmus Thelander is doubtful, and he would undoubtedly be a vital player to have back in the defence, when the league top goalscorer Martin Pusic is the opponent. FC Midtjylland (1st) have not looked all too convincing in 2015. Their shots domination stats are only corresponding to a 4th to 6th place in the table. They have been very dominant on set pieces, but otherwise they have played like an ordinary team. Injuries and suspensions could be a partial reason. They have been and are without several important players. For this match, captain and right back Kristian Bach Bak returns from suspension. Striker Morten Duncan and offensive midfielder Petter Andersson are both doubtful. Especially the status of Andersson is important, since FC Midtjylland have no other player that can match his vision and creativity.

The two teams battled intensely for the league title last season, where AaB proved superior. FC Midtjylland have undoubtedly been the better side in this season, but will all their absences and probable absences, they do not look much better than AaB. AaB are always highly motivated for home games, and they surely put up a good fight. Equal game is in store. Note that information regarding the fitness status of Thelander and Andersson can prove important and change the odds.

Recommendation: 1 (DNB) – 2.25 at Tipico

UPDATE: According to local media, regulars Sviatchenko (central defense), Hassan (right wing), Andersson (offensive midfield) and Jim Larsen (central defense) are all doubtful for the match tomorrow. Surely, all of them won't be absent, but it is not an optimal preparation with so many slightly injured players. Furthermore, rotation player Marco Larsen (offensive midfielder) is out with an injury. Looking good for our AaB bet. 

UPDATE v2: Andersson and Jim Larsen are confirmed out. For AaB Rasmus Thelander is out, while striker Helenius is doubtful. Many absences for both teams, but would expect this match to be fairly even.

SønderjyskE-Brøndby preview

Sunday 19/4 19.00

SønderjyskE (8th) should have done better based on shots stats in 2015. In fact they are the most chance dominating team in the league, but they have won three matches and lost three, which is not very impressive. SønderjyskE have been a bit unlucky defensively, and goalkeeper Marin Skender has probably not had the best time of his career. His saving percentage is a league low 47.6% in 2015 (average is 70.6%). Thus, you would expect SønderjyskE to improve their results. However, they will have to do this without some key players. Veteran striker Tommy Bechmann is out with an injury, while central defender Niels Lodberg will probably also miss the match. They are influential players, and it will be interesting to see how SønderjyskE will cope without them. Brøndby (4th) are the second best team in 2015 based on shots domination. They have also been too inefficient to harvest the full potential of their dominance. However, they have seven points in the last three matches, and this means that they are the main favourites for 3rd place. This is not set to be an easy match for them though. They tend to struggle away (only 2 wins in 11 matches), and three key players could be out. The least important, striker Johan Elmander is out with a suspension, while midfielder Thomas Kahlenberg is very doubtful with an injury. Lastly, and most important, central defender Daniel Agger could get a punishment after hitting an opponent in the last match. Our expectation is that he will receive some kind of suspension ahead of this game. These are the three veterans in Brøndby, and with the remaining squad mainly consisting of young players; this could become a very difficult away match.

SønderjyskE are a weak home team, since they prefer a counter-attacking approach. Brøndby are a weak away team, since they tend to get overmatched by physical opponents when not playing on their own pitch. Thus, this match is not really suiting for any of them. Thus, in our opinion the obvious choice would be too go for a draw, which is also well-paid and a satisfying result for both teams given their absences.

Idea: X – 3.40 at Tipico

Silkeborg-FC Copenhagen preview

Monday 13/4 19.00

Silkeborg (12th) are last, but they have really boosted their points score in 2015. In six matches, they have tripled their total points from 2014. However, they have been incredibly efficient, and not as significantly better as results might suggest. They have scored 11 goals in 18 shots on target; 61.1% of their shots on target – league average is 30.3%. This efficiency is unsustainably high and Silkeborg are likely to get fewer points when the efficiency reverts to normal. They have an unspectacular team, and they survive on counter-attacks with Nicolaj Agger as the main weapon. Important central midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen is set to return, while Emil Scheel is doubtful. FC Copenhagen (2nd) lack some offensive power. This appears to be their main issue at the moment. However, their key offensive midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen returns from suspension, which should boost the offensive production compared to the last match. Defensively they are rock solid. They have recorded the fewest shots on target allowed in 2015 (21), and they have only conceded goals in four out of the last 13 matches. No reported injuries, so this is really a must-win match for FC Copenhagen, and the pitch in Silkeborg looks good for football.

Silkeborg have been beating the odds until now in 2015, and we do not see them continuing this much longer. Their production of chances is simply not in line with the results. FC Copenhagen are a solid team, and should be much better than Silkeborg. They have no injuries or suspended players. They dominated the match completely when they met them last time in Silkeborg, although the match ended 0-0 (without Jørgensen in the line-up). They should dominate and win this match too, and we doubt seeing Silkeborg scoring.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH -0.75) – 1.91 at Unibet

Idea: Silkeborg not to score – 2.10 at Tipico

UPDATE: Scheel is out for Silkeborg, while FC Copenhagen are without rotation winger Rurik Gislason. Believe this bet is looking really solid! 

UPDATE v2: Line-ups suggest that the bet is far from solid. FC Copenhagen resting some regulars due to a midweek cup match, quite surprising disposition. Furthermore, Jørgensen is out due to sickness, so limited quality in the FC Copenhagen offense. Hedge if you can. 

Week 23 round-up

Why don't they call off matches after the first half? Then we would have had a surplus weekend. In three matches, the correct team went ahead and looked in control (FC Midtjylland, Randers and OB), but the second halves were terrible and this means that SuperligaBets had another poor round. 2015 have come off to a shitty start, but that is betting. We had 10 successive profitable weeks, and now we have had 3 successive negative rounds. The good thing is that the total is still in decent profit for the season. We hope that our poor streak won't continue much longer. We will be back with more picks during the week, probably Thursday.