Brøndby-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 28/11 19.00

Brøndby (4th) have been great lately. In the last five games their score is 6-0 and much of the defensive stability has been credited new signing Khalid Boulahrouz. In our stats review we argue that Boulahrouz has had a positive effect on Brøndby although the five clean sheets in a row are primarily due to luck. What makes Brøndby’s recent performance with nine matches without losing even more impressing is the amount of injuries to key players they have been coping with at the meantime.  In the last match Brøndby saw comebacks for midfielders Thomas Kahlenberg and Martin Ørnskov, but also lost both defender Martin Albrechtsen and midfielder, and captain, Mikkel Thygesen to injury. The good thing is that Brøndby actually played better after Kahlenberg and Ørnskov came on as substitutes, the bad that Albrechtsen and Thygesen have been vital this autumn. There are more plusses for the match. Right back Michael Almebäck and striker Kenneth Zohore looks to return. Especially the latter is important since Brøndby were clearly suffering offensively last weekend when they were without a true striker. Unfortunately for Brøndby their top scorer, Simon Makienok (6 goals), is probably not fit for this match either. His absence is vital, although Brøndby have done decently in offense without him. FC Copenhagen (3rd) are really bashing their opponents at home at the moment, and it seems they have found confidence after a terrible start to the season. They are still not very good when playing away. They have only won one away match this season and it was against Viborg the 1st September, three months ago! This is clearly a problem for FC Copenhagen; they are yet to find the right away recipe. Things are not getting easier with the likely absence of top scorer Igor Vetokele (7 goals) and winger Daniel Braaten. Certain is the absence of winger Rurik Gislason, who has been strong this autumn although losing some momentum in the recent games. Nevertheless these (possible) absences leaves FC Copenhagen with some issues and they could be forced to field a team with some players that have not performed very well nor seen much action this autumn. We believe that Copenhagen will field a team much like the team that lost against Juventus in midweek. Jørgensen will move to second striker position, while Cesar Santin is our favourite for the front spot. Santin has scored only twice this season and he is clearly no longer as good as few seasons ago. The last time Brøndby faced FC Copenhagen it ended 3-2. Brøndby were led by strong performances by Szymanowski and Makienok. It will be interesting to see how they will perform without the presence of Makienok.

If we look at stats Brøndby and FC Copenhagen are the two strongest teams in the league over the last five games. Both have a SoTR of more than 60% in these games, which is very high. A good match should be in store. Both teams are struggling with injuries to important players and believe that the teams are very similar in strength. The difference is the home field advantage of Brøndby plus FC Copenhagen’s the tough midweek match and at more than odds 3; we see good value in the home side.

Tip of the Week: 1 – 3.05 Mermaidbet

OB-AGF

Sunday 1/12 17.00

OB (8th) have won only five league games for the entire year 2013. That is not an impressive statistic, when the month is December. OB managed to survive as number 10 last season and are now in a fragile 8th position, just one point above the relegation line. The late goal by Espen Ruud in a poor match in Randers (1-1) was therefore vital. OB are very dependent on the form of midfielder Rasmus Falk and Emil Larsen and when they are not at the top of the game, OB struggle as they did in Randers. OB’s central defender Kasper Larsen left last match with an injury and is doubtful for this match. Since normal first choice Anders Møller Christensen is injured OB will be forced to make a less than optimal combination. Our prediction is Høegh and Diarra. Both players are physically strong, but tend to make mistakes with severe consequences to follow (goals). AGF (5th) are having a so-so season. Their performances are really up and down, which makes betting on AGF a difficult task. Offensively they have been decent lately, which can be credited to the pure presence of Søren Larsen. He is always equal to danger when the ball is in the area, which he showed with two goals against FC Vestsjælland. Defensively it will be interesting to witness how AGF will cope with a new keeper behind the backline. First choice, captain Steffen Rasmussen, got injured against FC Vestsjælland and this forces AGF to use Emil Ousager who did not impress the last time he got the chance.

The last time the two teams met it ended in a crazy fashion with a 3-6 result. The last five matches between the two have ended in three goals or more and with the absence of important defensive players on both sides, an entertaining match should be on the cards.

Idea: Over 2.5 – 1.86 Betfair

Remember that you can use our link to get a 350 DKK free bet (and maybe use it on this match). 

FC Nordsjælland-Randers

Sunday 1/12 14.00

After a miserable start of the season, the former champions FC Nordsjælland (10th) have turned the form around and are now looking up the table and are also through to the semi finals in the cup. The amount of injuries has decreased over time as well. Striker Morten Nordstrand is almost back from an injury and he came on as a substitute in the last match against AaB that ended with a draw. 15 of FC Nordsjælland’s 19 points have been attained at home. FC Nordsjælland’s SoTR are much better than Randers’ over the past five games. With a 49.14% SoTR against Randers’ 44.83% FC Nordsjælland have been better at creating and preventing chances. After a off day against AaB, Randers (9th) got back on track with a draw when OB visited. Striker Ronnie Schwartz has ended his scoring drought with manners with a superb strike from 30 meters that graced the crossbar. On the injury side it looks a bit grim. The two starters defender Mads Fenger and winger Jonas Kamper are both out but midfielder Elmar Bjarnason is back from suspension and this will help stabilise the centre.

The home field advantage will be the deciding factor in the matchup. The return of Bjarnason will help Randers but we reckon that this will not help Randers get the wanted points. Odds are too low to a recommendation.

Idea: 1 – 1.88 Betfair

Viborg-SønderjyskE

Saturday 30/11 17.00

38 seconds and Viborg (7th) had already lost the match in Copenhagen (ended 4-1). Viborg have now lost three matches in a row and in our logic it had to happen. Our stats review has picked Viborg as the weakest club in the Superliga based on SoTR (38%). Viborg are simply getting dominated in their matches and the only reason for their good position is their efficiency. Viborg’s saving efficiency (75% - league average 72%) and especially scoring efficiency (39% - league average 28%) is impressive. Thomas Dalgaard is the league top scorer with eleven goals and without him Viborg would have been in dire straits. But as we have pointed out several times, we do not believe that such a difference between Viborg’s efficiency and the league average can go on for long. Luck has been a factor and Viborg and Dalgaard will move towards a more human efficiency rate (and sink towards the league bottom if they do not begin creating more chances). Viborg will benefit from the return of captain and left back Christopher Poulsen and midfielder Aleksandar Stankov. Important offensive midfielder Kevin Mensah is doubtful. If there is any team at the level of Viborg it is SønderjyskE (12th). SønderjyskE have a SoTR of 42%, but in opposition to Viborg they have been unlucky/inefficient and therefore in a grim position. A scoring percentage of 21% and a saving percentage of 67% is the league’s worst combination. SønderjyskE have been lacking a striker, but an experiment with winger Johan Absalonsen in front proved vital in SønderjyskE’s win last weekend (their first after six losses in a row). Absalonsen were an eternal threat with his speed and dribbling skills. He made the difference by obtaining the penalty that led to a red card to Esbjerg and the deciding 1-0 goal. The level of play did not convince us though. After a decent first half, SønderjyskE were too nervous in the second part despite being one man more. We are not convinced that they have improved even though they won a match. SønderjyskE will be without their right wing Daniel Christensen, while captain and midfielder Henrik Hansen returns from suspension.

It is a very even affair, but Viborg are a good home team, while SønderjyskE are a very poor away team. In the last four away games SønderjyskE have lost by 11-2 and been nowhere near any points. The match could easily end in a draw, but if anyone is to take the three points we believe that it is Viborg. Plus: they are so damn lucky…

Recommendation: 1 (DNB) – 1.73 Unibet

Esbjerg fB-AaB

Monday 2/12 19.00

As if things could not get worse for last year’s cup winners, Esbjerg (11th) lost away against the relegation favourites SønderjyskE. With the suspension of captain and defender Kian Hansen they have to try with another constellation in the central defence with Jens Berthel Askou and Davidson Drobo-Ampem. Hansen is a top defender and have received an international call-up this autumn so it is a weakened defence. A mid-week match in Europa League will not help them either in their quest for points. The central midfield is also tested. Magnus Lekven, Martin Bergvold and Jeppe Andersen are all out due to injury in the match in Europa League. This could mean that the youngster Jakob Andreasen might get his first league start. Looking at the last five matches Esbjerg have been the worse team in this duel. A saving percentage of 59.05% and a scoring percentage of only 8.7% are by far the worst stats in the league. Looking at the last five matches AaB (2nd) have not lost a match. Last week they could have taken the top spot but had to settle for a draw (1-1 vs. FC Nordsjælland). Defender Lasse Nielsen is out due to suspension but the backup is Rasmus Thelander who is a former starter so the defence is weaker but in a critical state. At the front the offence have played well. In the last five matches AaB have the third highest scoring percentage with 29.63%. Especially winger Kasper Kusk has been unstoppable and he capped it off with a hattrick against Randers three weeks ago. The head to head match up against left back Jonas Knudsen could be dominated by Kusk. Knudsen is a good defender but has a tendency to make some poor decisions during a match.

With injuries and poor momentum Esbjerg could be in for a difficult time. If this is the match that the strikers will finally end the scoring drought is difficult to say. This season AaB have been an entertaining team to watch. In their seven away games all of them have ended with more than 2.5 goals and Esbjerg have played five of their eight matches with three or more goals. If you prefer to bet on a winner we think that AaB will come on top.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 - 2.05 bet365
Idea: 2 - 2.72 Betfair

FC Vestsjælland-FC Midtjylland

Friday 29/11 18.30

FC Vestsjælland (6th) deserved more last weekend in Aarhus (2-2). They played a nice match and were AGF dominant in the ability to create chances. At times they even played some pretty fine passing football; not exactly what the promoted club is most known for, signalling that confidence must be high after four points in two normally difficult away matches (OB and AGF). FC Vestsjælland will benefit from having key defender Jean-Claude Bozga back from suspension, but his normal partner in the central defence, Lasse Nielsen, is new on the list of suspended. The question is whether coach Ove Pedersen will solve this absence in the same way he solved the absence of Bozga: by changing from a 4-4-2 to a 3-4-3. The good thing about this formation is that his normal left back, Michael Lumb, has better opportunities for joining the attacks when playing wing. Lumb was outstanding in that role last weekend: obtaining a penalty and a huge opportunity (should have scored!). The critical thing about this formation is that it will allow more space for the opponent’s wingers. This was not a big issue against AGF’s wingers Oduro (no star player) and Akharraz (has tendency go towards the centre). Against FC Midtjylland (1st) it could be a different case. FC Midtjylland have some of the most challenging wingers in the league: Rilwan Hassan and Sylvester Igboun, and playing with only one wide-out could create problems for FC Vestsjælland. FC Midtjylland will not arrive at this match with the same level of confidence. They lost a six-pointer against Brøndby after a late goal and their leading position is not solid with AaB just two points behind. FC Midtjylland will have to cope with several absences. Key defender Erik Sviatchenko is injured, but Midtjylland will benefit from the return of central defender Patrick Banggaard. Midfielders Izunna and Petter Andersson are both suspended and especially the former is vital. FC Midtjylland will have to move an offensive player to cover his defensive position; most likely candidate is Danny Olsen. Not the best use of his abilities. On the bright side is the return of strong left back Jesper Juelsgaard. FC Midtjylland dominated the last match against FC Vestsjælland, but an own goal and a red card led to a disappointing 2-2 result.

FC Vestsjælland have the most confidence and the fittest squad. FC Midtjylland have a good match-up and have a better team even with the absences. We would not make a bet here, since we agree with the bookies to a large extent. But if you need some fun for your Friday, we would pick FC Midtjylland to win since this is the most likely winner.

Idea: 2 – 2.20 Nordicbet

Stats review: Week 16 update

As a new thing we will run through the stats and have a look at some specific questions that have been raised during the week and could be fun to have a look at. If you want us to have a look at something specific, please write to us. But first we look at the updated alternative tables.

Updated alternative tables:

We use the following measures:

TSR, Total Shots Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots in their matches. This is defined as:

TSR=Total shots by team/Total shots by team and opponent

SoTR, Shots on Target Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots on target in their matches. This is defined as:

SoTR=Total shots on target by team/Total shots on target by team and opponent

PDO, is a measure from hockey, that has been applied to football. Our use of it is to evaluate how lucky/unlucky a team has been during the season. PDO is defined as:
PDO=1000x(Saving%+Scoring%).

The table is sorted by SoTR, which is our favourite indicator for quality.

For last week’s detailed review and table – click here.

Comments:

Based on SoTR Esbjerg and AaB are this weekend’s biggest losers. Both were inferior to their opponents in creating scoring chances and as a result they have been dropped from the leading group. Their opponents, FC Nordsjælland and SønderjyskE both improved, along with FC Vestsjælland that performed well in Aarhus. New leader is FC Copenhagen that moved past FC Midtjylland to claim the front spot. Viborg are still the luckiest team in the league (based on PDO), although a 4-1 loss in Copenhagen caused their PDO to decrease a bit (from 1157). Offensively they were efficient/lucky as always with Dalgaard scoring on Viborg’s only shot on target for the entire game. SønderjyskE are still the unluckiest team in the league, although their PDO increased a bit from last week (864).

We now move to the questions:

Hypothesis 1: Is Boulahrouz a difference maker?

Boulahrouz have had a fantastic start in Brøndby. Four games played with four clean sheets and three wins to follow. This has made Danish media to hasten Brøndby to renew the contract of Boulahrouz that will end next summer. But have Brøndby really improved their game with the Cannibal in the starting line-up? Let’s look at the stats. If we compare Brøndby in the first twelve matches without Boulahrouz to the recent four games:

First twelve games (no Cannibal):

Goals allowed: 1.5 per game

Shots allowed:  12.80 per game

Shots on target allowed: 5.17 per game

PDO (luck indicator, average 1000): 890

SoTR: 57,24 %

Last four games (with Cannibal):

Goals allowed: 0 per game

Shots allowed: 14.25 per game

Shots on target allowed: 4.00 per game

PDO (luck indicator, average 1000): 1231

SoTR: 61,90 %

Okay. So what does this say? Well, the main reason for the hype is probably the first line. Four clean sheets in a row is something quite unique. But if we look at shots allowed, Brøndby are actually allowing more shots than before. As we have mentioned in other reviews, this could be due to good defending, forcing opponents to attempt more from the distance. If we instead look at shots on target allowed, which in our opinion is a better indicator for chances allowed, Brøndby are allowing 1.17 shots less per game. So this is all good, signalling that Boulahrouz actually made an impact (although the sample is so small that it will not be statiscally significant). If we look at the next line, the PDO (or as we call it: the luck indicator), it seems Brøndby have went from a long period where Brøndby in average have been unlucky to a period of luck (1231 is high!). Just think about the wrongly disallowed goal of Søren Larsen or the missed sitter from Darko Bodul. In most cases Brøndby would have allowed a few goals and this clean sheet story would not have been told. And we would probably not have had all this Boulahrouz-hype. Nevertheless Brøndby seems to be improving their overall game performance, their SoTR has went from 57,24% to an impressive 61,90%.

Conclusion: The clean sheet record can mainly be credited to luck. Nevertheless Brøndby are improving on a lot of measures, indicating that Boulahrouz has made a positive impact. So our conclusion is that Boulahrouz seems to be a difference maker.

Hypothesis 2: Can AGF fans go home when the Georgian guys enter?

When we watch AGF play and one of the three Georgian players enter (Devdariani, Skhirtladze and Vatsadze) we get the feeling that it will not change anything for the better. Whether it is due to lack of confidence (could be, they are not exactly fan favourites and boos have been heard) or just lack of quality is not really possible to evaluate for us, but they rarely impress us. You would think it is the confidence part since AGF have kept them for so many years (combined eleven seasons). Let us look at the numbers from this season, one player at a time:

Mate Vatsadze:

Minutes played: 107

Goals scored by player: 1

Score when playing: 1-2

Goals per 90 minutes: 0.84

Goals allowed per 90 minutes: 1.68

Davit Skhirtladze

Minutes played: 302

Goals scored by player: 0

Score when playing: 6-7

Goals per 90 minutes: 1.78

Goals allowed per 90 minutes: 2.09

David Devdariani

Minutes played: 140

Goals scored by player: 1

Score when playing: 6-5

Goals per 90 minutes: 3.86

Goals allowed per 90 minutes: 3.21

AGF in total

Minutes played: 1440

Score when playing: 24-26

Goals per 90 minutes: 1.5

Goals allowed per 90 minutes: 1.63

The story is actually not as clear-cut as we predicted. AGF are losing when Vatsadze and Skhirtladze are playing, but only by one goal. They are actually winning when Devdariani is playing. Compared to how they are doing in general they should just play with him all the time. This would actually also make games more interesting. His 140 minutes on the pitch have resulted in eleven goals! That is more than seven goals per game.

Conclusion: The Georgians are not really making things worse. And if Devdariani comes on you should stick to your seat as goals are in store.

Efficiency table

Let us end this review with the efficiency table. We still believe that Viborg's top scorer Dalgaard signing for Brøndby in the upcoming transfer window could make this table look more ordinary. The clubs should move towards the centre over the course of the season.

Week 16 round-up

A fine weekend for our recommendations. Our Tip of the Week was never in doubt with FC Copenhagen taking a secure 4-1 win. The Tip of the Week is now very close to a positive pay-off and we hope that it will happen next weekend. We are struggling a lot with our #Twitbets. We have now made 8 unsuccessful bets in a row! Simply not good enough. But we have also been very unlucky lately. This weekend two of our goalscoring bets, Oduro (odds: 13.00) and Antipas (odds: 5.05), both hit the crossbar. We will keep on going and hope that luck is about to change.

Next bets will arrive tomorrow.

To understand the tabels:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

AaB-FC Nordsjælland

Monday 25/11 19.00

AaB (2nd) are having a great season carried by a team dominated by locals, which makes it even more impressive. Winger Kasper Kusk has proved that he is back in the form from last autumn and he is pretty much doing whatever he wants. Kusk scored a hattrick in the last match in Randers and is now at seven goals for the season (made eight last autumn and zero in spring). Importantly AaB also got their other talented youngster Nicolaj Thomsen on the score sheet in the last match (first league goal in 42 matches). He has played several good matches but failed to score. AaB will be without veteran midfielder Rasmus Würtz but fellow veteran Thomas Augustinussen easily covers this absence. FC Nordsjælland (11th) have really been improving lately but despite of four wins in the last six matches they are still stuck in the risky part of the table.  FC Nordsjælland have been lacking a goal scorer and with favourite front man Morten Nordstrand playing 25 minutes in the last match, things are looking brighter. FC Nordsjælland will be without right back Jens Stryger Larsen, which probably ignites several changes. We expect winger Mario Ticinovic to cover the right back position and one of the young wingers Lindberg or Jradi to take the Ticinovic’s normal right wing position. With the strong duo Mtiliga and John on the left side of the pitch, Nordsjælland look unbalanced quality wise. AaB are strongest on the right with Kusk and Dalsgaard, so this fight could be crucial for the outcome. Nevertheless AaB seem to have a slight advantage with Thomsen facing Ticinovic on the other side.

The two teams are having a good run and the match could really go either way. We do however believe that AaB have the upper hand on some crucial match-ups. You could add that AaB are unbeaten at home while FC Nordsjælland have only attained points in one out of seven away games. You could also add that AaB are doing much better based on this season’s shooting statistics. If you sum it up, you get to a point where the home win seems close to playable.

Idea: 1 – 2.10 Mermaidbet

Randers-OB

Saturday 23/11 17.00
Randers (10th) have had a very disappointing 2013: losing cup final, exiting Europa League after one round and now heading towards 2014 barely above the relegation line. It is especially disappointing since Randers on paper look solid: a good combination of veterans and young ambitious players. Several players have however not been repeating old merits, although some of the blame rightly can be put on injuries and suspensions. That opportunity exists again on Saturday where Randers will be without the suspended Elmar Bjarnason and latest reports indicate that captain Christian Keller is also expected to be absent . Bjarnason and Keller are the normal central midfield of Randers, you could even claim they are the backbone. The possible alternatives, youngster Nicolai Poulsen (only two starting appearances career) or Lorenzo Davids (only 10 minutes played this season), are not generating optimism. Randers are likely to lose the power battle in midfield, but they are not the worst counter-team in the league so it is not necessarily a drawback. OB (9th) have been lousy at creating chances this season. Based on the measures TSR or SoTR they are among the weakest third in creating chances. Our explanation is that they have poor strikers that have been unable to finish opportunities. The addition of Mustafa Abdellaoue has definitely been helpful in improving the situation. In the last five matches OB’s chance creation is close to the league average (SoTR: 49,2 %), which indicates OB are doing better. OB will also benefit from the return of talismanic midfielder Rasmus Falk. In the ten matches he has been able to play more than 45 minutes, OB have earned 15 points. In the remaining five matches OB have only earned 3 points. So Falk = points! OB might be without central midfielder Conor O’Brien, but they should still be able to take the midfield initiative (if they want to). Veteran Anders Møller Christensen is also absent from the backline, but this is nothing new.

Both teams are coming from a cold period. We believe OB have the better conditions for turning the heat on. The return of Rasmus Falk and the completely new Randers central midfield are the paramount reasons for our recommendation on OB victory.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 2.08 Bet365

AGF-FC Vestsjælland

Sunday 24/11 14.00

With a lucky win in Odense against OB, FC Vestsjælland (7th) got some important points after two losses in a row but the smile might be turned upside down in this match. Defender Jean-Claude Bozga is suspended and this could open up the areal attack for AGF (5th) and for the tall striker Søren Larsen. By looking at the stats that we have posted during the last couple of days it is hard to see who the favourite is. There are some things though that will tip the scale to AGF’s favour. The home team do not have any vital injuries or suspensions and can play with the best eleven. With the strong midfield that consist of Casper Sloth and Kasper Povlsen, AGF will dominate the midfield. The home field advantage is a plus as well. FC Vestsjælland are struggling with their offense, where normal striker Thiago is injured. Although Joel Tshimbamba, the alternative, scored an easy goal last weekend, we are not yet convinced that he has got Superliga potential.

Even though this could look like a draw beforehand, we think that the small things will have a big influence in the outcome of this match. The need for Bozga will be felt since FC Vestsjælland have no other defender that could match Søren Larsen in the air.

Idea: 1 – 2.00 Nordicbet