Week 17 round-up (14/15)

9th weekend in a row with positive profits! A great way to round off a great autumn betting season, where we finish with a return of +10%. For the last round we have included our long-term bet on FC Midtjylland to lead at winter break (at odds 2.25), but we would have recorded a profit anyway. Our recommendations were the strong area this round with the draw in Randers and the low-scoring match in Brøndby. Unfortunately, our Tip of the Week was returned, since OB failed to capitalize despite of being dominant for most of the match against AaB. We also needed a bit more luck with our #Twitbets on Esbjerg win (0-0), where our bet was stopped by FC Nordsjælland keeper David Jensen. We are still utterly disgusted by our poor record on our Tip of the Week this autumn, and we have no logical explanation. No other explanation than pure randomness in an extreme version. We note that almost all our Tip of the Week bets dropped in odds in the period after we posted them until match start. We are very satisfied with the rest of our categories that have all been very profitable. We hope you enjoyed it too! We are grateful for all the nice remarks on Twitter, they make all the effort to produce the previews worthwhile.

List of pending long-term #Twitbets:
4/7 2014: To concede most goals: Hobro - 2.00 at Bet25
25/8 2014: Winner: FC Midtjylland - 3.25 at Unibet
25/8 2014: Leader at winter break: FC Midtjylland - 2.25 at Bet25 WIN
25/8 2014: To relegate: Hobro - 2.55 at Danske Spil
25/8 2014: League top goalscorer: Pusic/Cornelius - 4.39 at Unibet
3/11 2014: Hobro to concede 46 goals or more - 2.35 at Bet25

Randers-SønderjyskE

Friday 5/12 18.30

Randers (2nd) have won some tight matches recently. While Randers struggle to create something offensively, they are also excellent at limiting the opponent to only a few chances per match (11 goals conceded in 16 games is remarkable!). Randers face some defensive problems for this match. Central defender Mads Agesen is suspended, and although Jeppe Tverskov is a fine replacement, it is never optimal to change something that has worked so well. Offensively, Randers will be without their top goalscorer Mikael Ishak who is suspended, but with Djiby Fall and Nicolai Brock-Madsen as alternatives it should not be an important absence. SønderjyskE (9th) are the draw champions. 10 draws in 16 matches is a wild but also telling statistic. SønderjyskE are difficult to beat (only FC Midtjylland have lost fewer matches)! SønderjyskE have a great team at the moment. There is a nice combination of physique, experience and offensive firepower. We would actually rate SønderjyskE’s offense with Pourie and Bechamnn as stronger than the Randers counter part. The midfield is probably not as strong though, and surely not tomorrow, where Daniel Jensen is absent with an injury and Johan Absalonsen is suspended.

Randers are a looking strong and solid at the moment, but they do have to work a lot for their wins (that are usually slim (7 out of 9 wins only with one goal margin)). SønderjyskE are difficult to beat and hold a strong defence. This match has a high probability of ending in a draw, and at odds 3.70 it is certainly worth a try.

Recommendation: X – 3.70 at Betfair

Leaguespy preview for the match:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41637&a=33624

OB-AaB

Saturday 6/12 17.00

OB (10th) are experiencing a nice period under new head coach Ove Pedersen: two wins in a row and the last three home games have been won. OB have benefitted from a better morale and a better squad condition. They have no important players injured, and are therefore able to field the same team every weekend. Based on the starting eleven, they should have enough quality to stay in the league surely. They look pretty solid at the back (an Ove Pedersen trademark) and with Emil Larsen and Rasmus Falk improving from match to match; the offensive capabilities are also starting to show. AaB (6th) must feel sorry for losing at home to FC Copenhagen (0-1) in a very even match. The loss also had some additional negative consequences since two of the veterans, central defender Kenneth Emil Petersen and central midfielder Kasper Risgård are both suspended for this match. Both are quality players and AaB are without alternatives at the same level. AaB also have a do-or-die match on Thursday in the Europa League, which might influence the squad selection here. In any case, it should not be an AaB team at its maximum that is visiting Odense this weekend.

OB have momentum and less squad concerns. We regard them as small favourites in this match-up, and acknowledge that AaB are a solid team that is not easily beaten. Nevertheless, there should be clear value in a home win here.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH +0) – 2.00 at Bet365

UPDATE: Central defender Rasmus Thelander is also out for AaB. Not a good situation for AaB to be without their two solid centre backs. The young (and rather unproven) duo Jakob Blåbjerg and Kasper Pedersen will probably get the chance. 

Leaguespy preview:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41638&a=33624 

FC Vestsjælland-Hobro

Sunday 7/12 14.00

FC Vestsjælland (11th) put up a good fight in the mission impossible match in Herning last weekend (lost 2-1), and maybe the players are starting to understand that relegation is a serious concern unless the performances improve. FC Vestsjælland were without two key players, striker Rasmus Festersen and central defender Jean-Claude Bozga who both return here. Team captain and central midfielder Henrik Madsen is doubtful. FC Vestsjælland should be able to field a team with a lot of experience, but limited individual qualities (Festersen is the go-to-guy). Hobro (7th) lost a fairly even match against Randers last weekend (0-1), and are starting to feel the pressure from below. This match is vital if they are to remain out of immediate relegation contention. Hobro do have a fine team, admittedly with less experience than FC Vestsjælland, but instead more offensive quality from the likes of Antipas, Hvilsom and Berggreen. Hobro have no reported injury concerns.

The last time they met Hobro won comfortably 3-1 (in Hobro). But FC Vestsjælland are typically much stronger at home, and we should expect them to be dominant here (they really have to win this!). At the same time free entrance is offered for the home fans, so FC Vestsjælland will be eager to push forward. This could give Hobro excellent chances for exploiting their counter attacking qualities. We expect Hobro to come away with something here.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.92 at Bet365

Brøndby-Silkeborg

Sunday 7/12 17.00

Brøndby (4th) are playing like shit at the moment (to put it gently). They were lucky to only lose by 2-0 in FC Nordsjælland (should have been 6-1’ish – worth mentioning that Brøndby were playing with 10 men for most of the game). In midweek they fielded most of the best team in a cup home match against a club ranked two divisions under. Brøndby had to play 120 minutes before taking a slim win (2-1). Part of the reason for the poor performance is the absence of talismanic defender Daniel Agger. When Agger is playing, Brøndby are solid at the back and playing with more confidence in general. When Agger is not playing the team looks fragile and bleak. Agger is doubtful for this match, while his normal companion in the central Dario Dumic is suspended here. If Agger cannot play Brøndby will field a rather unimpressive central defence. Unimpressive is also the state of the pitch in Brøndby, which is completely ruined and not suited for passing football. Silkeborg (12th) are positioned like shit, but are actually not playing that bad. Sure, they have the occasional bad day, but in general they play pretty even matches. The main problem is the offensive inefficiency, which is insane. Silkeborg have scored 11% of their shots on target! League average is 25%, and the second lowest registered inefficiency is SønderjyskE/FC Nordsjælland at 21%. It is obvious that the offensive players have no confidence in terms of finishing. Silkeborg actually create a lot, but they never experience being ahead, since they never score. For this match, Silkeborg will be without one of their best performing players, left wingback Nicolaj Ritter who is suspended.

Two teams playing without confidence at a terrible pitch. An under bet looks interesting here. Both clubs have only scored twice in the last five league matches. Stay tuned for info on the condition of Agger. If he is out a bet in the direction of Silkeborg could be worth a shot.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 1.87 at Betsafe

FC Copenhagen-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 7/12 19.00

FC Copenhagen (3rd) need to win here. Otherwise they can forget about claiming the title. We should therefore see an FC Copenhagen team that is willing to gamble if the score is all square in second half. FC Copenhagen are playing pretty average football at the moment. They are relatively solid at the back, but they struggle with the offensive production. They will find some optimism in the great goal scored by Andreas Cornelius last weekend. Cornelius has had a poor season until now, and this has been of great importance since he is usually playing the lone striker position. FC Copenhagen will benefit from the return of midfielders Christian Poulsen and Thomas Delaney from suspension. In that light it should not be a huge problem that fellow midfielder Daniel Amartey is suspended for this match. FC Midtjylland (1st) performed poorly last Monday, but won 2-1 anyway (against FC Vestsjælland). They are a top team; they win even on the bad days. FC Midtjylland’s brilliant offense had a difficult day against the very defensive FC Vestsjælland. They will have more space here, and this could be dangerous for FC Copenhagen, since the likes of Pione Sisto and Sylvester Igboun are not easily stopped. FC Midtjylland face a few challenges though. Right back and captain Kristian Bak Bach and central midfielder Tim Sparv are both suspended. Although FC Midtjylland have alternatives of similar quality, they do not have the same experience and calmness that will important in an intense game like this. FC Midtjylland have won the last two away matches in Parken (2-1 and 5-1).

We expect a great match here. FC Copenhagen have to win, and FC Midtjylland thrive in matches where they get space. We believe that FC Midtjylland have some individual qualities that FC Copenhagen cannot match currently, and this could easily be decisive. We see value in goals and the away side here.

Ideas: Over 2.5 goals – 2.15 at Tipico

2 (DNB) – 2.33 at Unibet

UPDATE: FC Midtjylland will be without striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen. An important player, but FC Midtjylland have dealt well in his absence (Ureña is likely to start). 

Esbjerg-FC Nordsjælland

Monday 8/12 19.00

Esbjerg (8th) are not fully clear of the relegation line, but they have too much quality for that to become an issue. They have some great players with the striker Martin Pusic (8 goals this season) as the star player. Esbjerg have however underperformed a bit in this season, and the main reason is a midfield that has not been as convincing as in the past seasons. Esbjerg are a strong home team and usually dominates every time they play at home. Esbjerg will be challenged by having to play a cup match Thursday against FC Midtjylland, and we expect Esbjerg to field the strongest team (unlike FC Midtjylland) for that match. Midfielder Mohammed Fellah is suspended, but Esbjerg have a fine alternative in Jeppe Andersen. FC Nordsjælland (5th) got back to winning ways after a streak of six games without a win. FC Nordsjælland outplayed Brøndby completely (2-0) and the strong wingers Uffe Bech and Joshua John looked sharp. FC Nordsjælland have a great team when they have a full squad to choose from like now.

Esbjerg are a strong home and FC Nordsjælland are traditionally a poor away team. This should justify the favourite role for Esbjerg in an otherwise pretty even match-up. Both teams have their force in the offensive aspect, and we expect an entertaining match to end the year.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.95 at Bet365

Leaguespy preview for the match:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41642&a=33624

UPDATE: Söder is possibly out for Esbjerg. The Swede has been quite anonymous in most matches, why young Vestergaard might actually be an upgrade.

Week 16 round-up (14/15)

Damn you, FC Midtjylland. We felt it was such a good bet (odds also dropped a lot afterwards), but FC Midtjylland were own goal short for our Tip of the Week pick. Our Tip of the Week section continues to be in a bad state. Amazing really since all our other categories are in fine plus. Well, this was still a good weekend. Due to some strong recommendations we finished the week in small plus. It was the 8th weekend in a row with positive profits!! So we are still good value despite of our Tip of the Week slip ups. One round remains in 2014, so stay tuned!

SønderjyskE-Esbjerg

Friday 28/11 18.30

SønderjyskE (9th) lost for the first time in ten matches last weekend (1-0 at Brøndby). It was actually a fairly even match, and the SønderjyskE players could feel hard done afterwards. SønderjyskE are a solid team at the moment. They are difficult to beat. It is only a question of them being a bit unlucky with not being positioned higher, since they have failed to get enough wins out of their fine performances. For the match against Esbjerg, they will benefit from the return of skilful striker Marvin Pourie from suspension. With him back SønderjyskE can field a very gifted offense. Defensively they will have to find a replacement for the suspended left back Erik Marxen who has played all minutes this season. Esbjerg (8th) have, like SønderjyskE, not earned points according to how they have played. Esbjerg have been in the lead in many matches, but way too often allowed the opponents to get back. Esbjerg have a great team that should be capable of a top half position. Offensively they have some strong weapons in Martin Pusic and Jakob Ankersen. Defensively they are a bit challenged for this match with defensive chief, the central defender Michael Jakobsen, suspended. Esbjerg will then have to field a new combination with Gomes and Stenderup at the back, and although they are fine defenders, none are natural leaders.

SønderjyskE away is often a difficult place for Esbjerg. As seen some weeks back in Randers, Esbjerg struggle when they face physical opponents on a poor pitch (Esbjerg have several small and technical players). SønderjyskE’s pitch is usually quite poor in late autumn (probably not a coincidence). SønderjyskE’s overall quality should be inferior to Esbjerg, but based on the pitch and the way this match will be played, we actually see SønderjyskE as having a great chance of winning.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.875 at Bet365

Leaguespy preview for the match:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41298&a=33624 

Silkeborg-OB

Saturday 29/11 17.00

Silkeborg (12th) are now ten points below the second lowest ranked team. They have only earned four points in 15 matches. There is only one final outcome: relegation. Confidence must be very low in Silkeborg after the team just lost in a 120-minute cup match in Randers (0-1) on Wednesday. Silkeborg can now only focus on salvaging some honour during the rest of the season. Silkeborg’s problem is that they are simply too weak in the deciding situations (scoring and conceding). As seen in Parken last weekend, they are indeed capable of creating opportunities, but their finishing is just embarrassing. Important midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen is doubtful for this match. OB (10th) jumped above the relegation line after a deserved win (1-0) against FC Nordsjælland (who fielded a semi B-team). OB have improved since Ove Pedersen took charge six games ago, and the doomsday prophecies are no longer credible. Pedersen has changed formation to a 4-4-2 and are using some players differently, for instance Lasse Kryger as front man. It appears to be working for now, although OB still are some way from where they want to be. OB have for once a relatively fit side, which should provide them with some consistency.

The match will undoubtedly be very even in terms of ball possession and shots fired, but OB have more quality in each end of the pitch, which we believe will be the deciding factor here.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.60 at Betsafe

Leaguespy preview:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41299&a=33624 

Hobro-Randers

Sunday 30/11 14.00

Hobro (7th) are a very entertaining team. They always fight with great passion, and although their quality is often inferior, they manage to win some matches. This time they face their local rivals Randers, and the motivation will surely be high. The question is whether it is enough. Hobro appears to succeed when they face teams that are physically inferior. Randers will probably not be such a team. Nevertheless, Hobro should find some confidence in the fact that they have started scoring in recent matches (six goals in last three matches). Right back Jesper Bøge is doubtful for the match. Randers (2nd) are a rock-solid team that even on bad days manage to take slim wins (as seen last weekend against FC Vestsjælland or midweek against Silkeborg). They have so much confidence that they just keep on pushing on in their physical style until the opponents gives away a goal. At the same time they have been strong at the back – only three times (in 15 games) have the allowed two or more goals. Randers will be without suspended right-winger Kasper Fisker, a creative force. They should benefit from the return of left midfielder Elmar Bjarnason from suspension. Apart from Fisker’s absence they have a full squad to choose from.

4.70 look like a lot for a Hobro home win. The problem is just that Randers appears to be a very poor match for them. It is difficult to find the arguments for a Hobro win, since Randers appears superior in all aspects. Therefore we would rather pick the away win here, although the price is not outstanding.

Idea: 2 – 1.90 at Betsafe

FC Nordsjælland-Brøndby

Sunday 30/11 17.00

FC Nordsjælland (6th) lost deservedly 1-0 in Odense last weekend. Not surprising since they were without six players (four suspensions, one injury and one on the bench due to failure to meet on time). Five of the players should return here, why FC Nordsjælland should deliver an entirely different performance. Only strong winger Joshua John’s participation remains in doubt. However, truth is that FC Nordsjælland have struggled over the past matches, especially since their force, the wingers, have not performed in a satisfying level. Brøndby (4th) have actually not been overly impressive lately, but have managed to clinch seven points in the last four matches. They have looked solid at the back (when Agger is playing that is), but lacked some firepower in front. They have only scored two goals in the last four matches, and the ones they scored were only due to odd deflections by opponents’ defenders. Brøndby should have a full squad to choose from here.

FC Nordsjælland are traditionally a strong home team, while Brøndby have been weak in away games. A home win seems interesting, but with the poor momentum of FC Nordsjælland it is not actually interesting. Instead we conclude that the two sides offensive struggles will lead to a low-scoring game.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.91 at Unibet

AaB-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 30/11 19.00

AaB (5th) delivered a terrible performance last weekend in FC Midtjylland (lost 2-0). It was terrible since AaB were looking to take advantage of several FC Midtjylland absences, but instead ended up losing in a match, which the opponent dominated from start to finish. AaB had actually been improving until that match, but it seems like they still struggle a bit with the stability. AaB were without central defender Rasmus Thelander in the match, and he is crucial for the defensive stability. AaB will try to find comfort in the strong performances they deliver at home, and they will undoubtedly have great support Sunday night. Offensive midfielder Thomas Enevoldsen is suspended, while Thelander is doubtful. FC Copenhagen (3rd) are not much better than AaB at the moment. They are also very inconsistent in their performances, although the inconsistency is only a matter of poor or okay performances. They rarely leave you with the impression of having played a really good match. What is lacking? Offense! FC Copenhagen have only scored 15 goals in 15 matches. That is the tied second lowest. Not what to expect from the team with the highest wage budget in the league. Central midfielders Delaney and Poulsen are suspended, but FC Copenhagen have fine alternatives. Notice that both teams played Europa League Thursday night (after this was posted).

The bookies are well aware that this will be a low-scoring match, so the value in this outcome seems to be gone. Instead we would go for an AaB win. AaB are a strong home team, and we do not see why FC Copenhagen deserves to be favourites after a streak of average performances. As a bonus, the last time they met it was also in Aalborg and it ended with a home win (1-0).

Idea: 1 (AH +0) – 2.10 at Bet365

FC Midtjylland-FC Vestsjælland

Monday 1/12 19.00

FC Midtjylland (1st) are doing a great job at the moment. The win last weekend was extraordinary since they defeated (and outplayed) the defending champions despite of suffering from several important absences (2-0 against AaB). For this match the suspended duo of Patrick Banggaard and Petter Andersson will return, while midfielder Jakob Poulsen and striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen could return (still doubtful though). On the other hand, Rilwan Hassan and Izunna are suspended, but they have been less important in this season that the ones who return. FC Midtjylland have such squad depth, it is really remarkable. In the last match, reserves Marcos Ureña and Kristoffer Olsson did a great job, and coach Riddersholm has some positive problems ahead of this match. While FC Midtjylland are, by far, the team that creates the most chances, FC Vestsjælland (11th) are the poorest team in this sense. They have lost three matches in a row, and they really look demoralised. They are not creating anything offensively, and at the back they do not have the solidity that made them famous last season. Adding to insult, they will be without two of their best players (if not the best). Striker and team top goalscorer Rasmus Festersen (6 out of 15 team goals) and defensive giant Jean-Claude Bozga are both suspended. FC Vestsjælland have lost seven out of eight away games (only beating Silkeborg luckily), while FC Midtjylland have won all their eight home games.

We only see one outcome in this match, and that is a home win. There is nothing to find optimism in for FC Vestsjælland, and we would actually be surprised if FC Midtjylland are not able to win by more than one goal here. If you are a risk taker you could consider a three+ goal win.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -1.5) – 2.12 at Unibet

UPDATE: Poulsen and Duncan both called up for FC Midtjylland. This looks impossible for FC Vestsjælland.

FREE Leaguespy access for the match available here:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41303&a=33624

Week 15 round-up (14/15)

Another great weekend (+28% return)! 7th weekend in a row with positive profits. This weekend with success for all our recommendations and #Twitbets (including our Tip of the Week). We have now clinched an all-time profit of +17.59 units (+5% return). Only negative thing is that our Tip of the Week have underperformed a lot, but we aim to change that in the future! So stay tuned - two more rounds in 2014 remains!

FC Vestsjælland-Randers

Friday 21/11 18.30

FC Vestsjælland (10th) have been showing some terrible football in the recent matches. If they had lost the last six matches it would not have been unfair, but they somehow managed to claim four points in the process. Bottom-line is that they are not performing very well, and in terms of current strength we would consider calling them the weakest in the league. What is not working? Well, first and foremost is the team’s traditional force, the defence, not well organized at the moment. Especially if FC Vestsjælland go behind, it is almost certain that they will lose (often with several goals). Offensive they have the speed of Rasmus Festersen as the main strength and he does a good job, but that is simply not enough when the rest of the team are experiencing such a poor period. Randers (2nd) are a completely different story. It must be fun to be a Randers fan at the moment, because no matter whom they face, they have a good chance of winning. They are on the other hand well organized, and possess in general much more quality. Offensively they are still too inconsistent, but with the return of Nicolai Brock-Madsen (scored for Denmark U21 against Italy in midweek) to old strength Randers should have several weapons in the toolbox.  Randers face one concern for the upcoming match and that is the absence of left midfielder Elmar Bjarnason due to suspension. Bjarnason has had a great season and he is excellent at holding up the ball and securing midfield stability. Alternatives do not have the same qualities: Jonas Kamper is very offensive minded, while Adama Tamboura has defensive skills but lack on-the-ball skills. Randers should benefit from the return of central defender Mads Agesen from suspension. With him back Randers will again field the strong central defence duo with Agesen and Fenger.

At the moment we feel there is a quality difference here, and we believe that Randers should be capable of winning every second away match in the current situation. This implies fine value in the away win, and we therefore post this as a recommendation.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.05 at Unibet

For Leaguespy access for the match:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41207&a=33624

Esbjerg-Hobro

Saturday 22/11 17.00

Esbjerg (9th) dropped from the skies after a 3-2 loss in Randers. Before that Esbjerg had played some terrific matches, including a 7-0 cup win in Horsens. Randers away is always a tough match for Esbjerg however, and they were dominated physically for most of the match. Esbjerg are typically best when they face an opponent that are not either very physical or very defensive. In that case Esbjerg are allowed to practice their very direct counter attacking style. Esbjerg have a good team, although some players are not performing in a satisfactory level. One of these is the new-signed striker Robin Söder, who all too easily disappears in matches where the opponents are physical. Defender Eddi Gomes is suspended, but Daniel Stenderup should be a decent alternative. Hobro (7th) are not a team of superstars, but they put in a brilliant fight. Sometimes it is enough, as in the 3-0 win against Brøndby last weekend. Hobro simply showed a much better attitude. And that is the key for Hobro: attitude. Hobro will enter this match with lots of attitude and a defensive starting point. No reported injuries or suspensions for Hobro.

Esbjerg tend to have problems against teams with a defensive mentality. Their last match against Hobro (1-1) did not show any large quality difference, so if we were to bet here we with go with the away side.

Idea: 2 (AH +1) – 2.025 at Bet365

FC Copenhagen-Silkeborg

Saturday 22/11 19.00

FC Copenhagen (3rd) played a fine match in the last round at FC Nordsjælland (0-0) when all things are considered. After Christian Poulsen’s red card after only 30 minutes FC Copenhagen were forced to play 10-vs-11 for 60 minutes, but did so without allowing FC Nordsjælland to get clear-cut chances. FC Copenhagen struggle in the other half of the pitch though where they suffer under the poor form of lone striker Andreas Cornelius. A match against Silkeborg could be just what is needed to get some morale, but in case of failure, it could also mean that the league title is almost unachievable. FC Copenhagen will be without the suspended Christian Poulsen, but otherwise no reported (important) injury concerns. Silkeborg (12th) are last and without a win in 14 matches. Two obvious reasons: they concede too many easy goals (penalties or sloppy marking) and they are terrible at executing their own chances (scoring on 12% of shots on target – league average is 27%). Most of their matches are actually more equal than the table predicts, but football is not only about playing fine football in the middle of the pitch. Silkeborg have no new absences.

FC Copenhagen should dominate Silkeborg here. The question is just what the end product will be, since FC Copenhagen have been so poor at scoring (only Silkeborg have scored fewer goals). We are however quite sure that Silkeborg cannot keep them from scoring over the entire match. At the same time Silkeborg might not to score: they have only scored in 1 out of 7 away matches and FC Copenhagen’s defence is quite strong. FC Copenhagen to win to nil seems more interesting than a FC Copenhagen handicap win.

Tip of the Week: FC Copenhagen to win to nil – 2.40 at Unibet

Free Leaguespy access for the match:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41209&a=33624 

OB-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 23/11 14.00

Last year it was Denmark’s second biggest city Aarhus who lost their football team in the Superliga (AGF). This year it could be the third biggest city’s turn, since OB (11th) from Odense are in an unhealthy state. The poor morale was visible in midweek training where one of the key players Emil Larsen were about to start a fight with one of the squad’s youngsters. Pressure is high and performance is low appears to be the conclusion on OB’s season so far. OB have a lot of problems at the moment. The individualists are not performing, and the overall teamwork is not good enough either. Despite of these current concerns the team should be strong enough to avoid relegation, but it could be that a winter break is needed to reboot the morale. OB have some injuries, but not for the regulars. FC Nordsjælland (6th) are in poor form. Two points in the last five matches is not good (not scoring in four of these). The drop in form has collided with a drop in performance level from the two wingers Uffe Bech and Joshua John. FC Nordsjælland are very dependent of their offensive work if they are to suceed. For this match FC Nordsjælland will face several problems, since four players are suspended. Right back Mario Ticinovic and central defender Ivan Runje are out, and with young Andreas Maxsø as only obvious alternative for both positions, coach Kristjansson is forced to invent something. Central midfielder Martin Vingaard (will be replaced by Søren Christensen who is returning from suspension) and striker Morten Nordstrand (not a regular at the moment) are also absent. Add to this that FC Nordsjælland typically are a significantly weaker away than at home (only team with artificial pitch).

OB are in a terrible condition, but they get a lot of help with all the suspensions for FC Nordsjælland. What remains is a very even match where OB on paper should be better (our evaluation). Therefore we would rather pick the home win here.

Idea: 1 (AH +0) – 1.975 at Bet365
 

For Leaguespy:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41210&a=33624
UPDATE: OB midfielders Emil Larsen and Martin Spelmann might both be out. In that case, value should be on the away side!

Brøndby-SønderjyskE

Sunday 23/11 17.00

Brøndby (5th) are difficult to figure out. They started a great streak, but finished it by losing 3-0 in Hobro in the last round. It is worth considering though that Brøndby failed after Daniel Agger was substituted with an injury. Agger’s presence is vital for the stability of Brøndby’s defence. Agger’s condition is still unclear (was forced to skip Denmark matches during the week), but it is obvious for everyone that alternatives Albrechtsen or Semb Berge are much weaker. Offensively, Swedish striker Johan Elmander is in doubt. It should not pose a big problem, since Elmander has struggled to find the net. Brøndby should find confidence in their strong home record (five wins out of seven). SønderjyskE (8th) have only lost two matches out of 14, but are despite of this not in top half. They have simply lacked cynicism, why nine of their matches have ended in a draw. What they do on the pitch is excellent. They have a solid backbone with some experienced defenders. The midfield is a good combination of routine and speed, while the strikers are potentially deadly (Pourie and Bechmann). Unfortunately, striker Pourie is suspended here, so it should only be a “SønderjyskE light”-offense that arrives in Brøndby on Sunday.

Although Brøndby’s defensive stability is very dependent on the participation of Daniel Agger, we believe that a less than 2.5 goal bet is quite interesting. Pourie is out for sure, and both teams have had a lot of low-scoring matches: five out of seven Brøndby home matches and six out of seven SønderjyskE away matches have finished with under 2.5 goals. Another low-scoring match could be awaiting here. If Agger is out a bet on SønderjyskE not to lose is also tempting (we will post new information when available).

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 1.98 at Unibet

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.10 at Unibet

UPDATE: Agger is likely to play. Elmander will probably not play.

For Leaguespy:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41211&a=33624 

FC Midtjylland-AaB

Sunday 23/11 19.00

FC Midtjylland (1st) are cruising at the moment. They are 10 points ahead of the nearest rival, and winning everything at the moment (even the tight matches). We believe that they have dropped their performance level over the past matches. It has not been champagne football, but more a matter of having the individualists to score a goal or two (at the moment a player like Sisto is red hot). FC Midtjylland could improve with the return of winger Sylvester Igboun from suspension. He should surely add some extra offensive power. FC Midtjylland are not without concerns. Central defender Patrick Banggaard and offensive midfielder Petter Andersson are suspended. Both are quality players, and although FC Midtjylland have a strong bench they will be difficult to replace. The situation is really problematic if the doubtful players, right back (and captain) Kristian Bach Bak and central midfielder Jakob Poulsen are out as well. AaB (4th) have played some quite disappointing football (compared to last season), but have managed to get a pretty decent amount of points for it. AaB have struggled a lot offensively with creating chances. In the last couple of matches AaB have improved somewhat. It is also worth noticing that the right back Henrik Dalsgaard has found his old form, and he is a great offensive contribution with his runs down the flank. AaB’s strong central midfielder Kasper Risgård limped off the field in a midweek cup win. It will be problematic if he is out (no news on this though).

FC Midtjylland have more concerns than AaB for this match. If influential players like Poulsen and Bak are out FC Midtjylland could find this match very difficult. The odds for AaB are not exactly fantastic, but a small wager on AaB not to lose could be interesting if you are looking for a late Sunday bet. The odds for under do also seem to be a bit overpriced here.

Ideas: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.92 at Bet365

Under 2.5 goals – 2.28 at Unibet

UPDATE: Jakob Poulsen and striker Morten Duncan are out for FC Midtjylland. Should increase value remarkably. 

For Leaguespy:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=41212&a=33624 

Week 14 round-up (14/15)

6th week in a row with positive profits! This week we had a return of +2.57 units (+37% return). Finally, we had some success with our Tip of the Week. Esbjerg had as we expected problems against a physical Randers team. We got our SønderjyskE recommendation, but missed our Brøndby recommendation by miles. Impressive performance by Hobro, that were able dominate Brøndby physically. Brøndby were very poor however, especially after Agger left with an injury. Our ideas were great - and only a late Silkeborg goal ruined a full house. We had no #Twitbets in this weekend, but they will be back. Next Superliga matches are in two weeks, and we will post previews after next weekend.

Randers-Esbjerg

Saturday 8/11 19.00

Randers (4th) have had a poor period when measured by points. Five points in the last five games is not spectacular, but Randers is not a spectacular team. They are a well-organised, physical team that sometimes lack the deciding firepower offensively. This has been exactly the case in these games with Randers not scoring in four out the five matches (they won 3-0 against OB though). Defensively they are rock solid and have only allowed two goals in these matches. Randers are normally very strong at their home pitch. The pitch in Randers has a reputation of being in a poor state, but this is not illogical, since this is in favour of Randers physical approach. Randers will be without central defender Mads Agesen. His absence is likely to be covered by Jeppe Tverskov who did well the last time he got the chance. Esbjerg (8th) are starting to come alive. The 4-1 win at FC Vestsjælland was great, although Esbjerg struggled until they got the first goal randomly. Esbjerg lack the skills to break up a defensive opponent, but when they get space they are deadly. Esbjerg will be without their captain Hans-Henrik Andreasen, and this is not a good match to do without him, since he is the only midfielder with great physique. The other midfielders are small and technical, and Esbjerg will be forced to use the lightweight Fellah on right wing. Fellah is a good footballer, but could suffer from Randers physical approach and the heavy pitch. That should be the fear for Esbjerg: that Randers outmuscles them. This has happened in the past, and the stadium in Randers is not among the favourite stadiums for Esbjerg.

The market has moved quite a lot since it opened (towards Esbjerg victory). We feel it has overdone it. Esbjerg should not be favourites here, despite of their impressive showings lately. Randers are a tough nut to crack and usually a bad match for Esbjerg. Value is in a home win, but covering for the draw is necessary.

Tip of the Week: 1 (DNB) – 2.00 at Unibet

Leaguespy access:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=40567&a=33624 

Silkeborg-FC Midtjylland

Friday 7/11 18.30

Silkeborg (12th) are undoubtedly heading for relegation. The team lacks quality and currently also confidence. The performance in last round, 2-0 loss against a B-team from AaB, was just terrible. Silkeborg are doing okay until they reach the opponents box, from then on they only have one solution: hopeless long-range attempts. The front man Nikolaj Agger lacks the skills to cut through the opponents defence, and with alternatives Morten Beck injured and Jeppe Illum playing poorly, Silkeborg have over the past matches used unproven 18-year-old Robert Skov as second striker. Skov has actually done okay (scoring one of Silkeborg’s only seven goals for the season), but this illustrates the sort of problems Silkeborg have upfront. In the rest of the pitch, Silkeborg are a solid team with many experienced players, but nothing spectacular. One of their best players, central midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen is suspended for this match. FC Midtjylland (1st) are doing a great job with a strong squad. They have a range of quality players that can make the difference. Last weekend it was winger Pione Sisto who scored two goals in the 2-0 win against FC Nordsjælland. FC Midtjylland have done outstanding in this season, especially when having the number of injured players in mind. The injury situation has not exactly improved for this match. Central midfielder Jakob Poulsen (the league’s top assist player (5)) is injured and the ever-dangerous winger Sylvester Igboun is suspended. FC Midtjylland have decent alternatives in the squad, but they are more defensive minded. Not an optimal situation when facing a Silkeborg team that will be looking to take points by defending and countering.

Each end of the table is meeting here. Both teams have absences for key players, and for FC Midtjylland it could dampen their offensive performance. Silkeborg are traditionally a difficult opponent for FC Midtjylland, but in the current state we doubt they will be able to even grasp a point (also consider that FC Midtjylland will have great support due to the proximity of the clubs). The most interesting bet here is probably under 2.5 goals. Silkeborg have played more matches without scoring than matches scoring, and FC Midtjylland are without a player with 6 goals and a player with 5 assists. Alternatively, Silkeborg not to score at around 2.55 is decent.

Ideas: 2 – 1.81 at Betfair

Under 2.5 goals – 2.28 at Betfair

Leaguespy access here:

http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=40565&a=33624

SønderjyskE-OB

Sunday 9/11 13.00

SønderjyskE (9th) have actually been playing some fine football this season. Together with league leaders FC Midtjylland they are the only ones to only have lost two matches this season. Yes, you are right, that must mean that SønderjyskE have a lot of draws listed in the table. Nine draws, seven of these in the last eight games (all of them finishing 1-1!). It is quite incredible. This tells a story about a team that is very difficult to beat (seen in the 1-1’s against top runners FC Midtjylland and FC Copenhagen), but also a team that has lacked the efficiency to win match. That is actually a bit surprising, since SønderjyskE holds two of the more efficient strikers in Marvin Pourie and Tommy Bechmann, a quality duo that should be able to attract many points during the season. SønderjyskE will also benefit from the return of strong defensive midfielder Adama Guira from suspension and Daniel Jensen should be fit after leaving last match with thigh problems. Winger Nikolaj Madsen is only regular who is still out for this match. OB (11th) took a win in the do-or-die match against Hobro last weekend (3-1). It was done in convincing fashion, but OB were also a bit lucky. They were down 0-1 after 30 minutes, but Hobro received an early red card, which gave more space to OB’s two star players Rasmus Falk and Emil Larsen. It is important to see the two reaching their highest level if OB are to survive this season. The question is what to put into this one good match, where OB mostly played eleven against ten. The rest of the matches have been largely poor, and we are not convinced that this one good game necessarily means that OB have become a much better team. They will undoubtedly be matched physically here. The previous game this season (in Odense) ended 1-1 (surprisingly).

Despite of OB’s important win last season, we doubt that they have resurrected. SønderjyskE are a strong team with great team culture, physique and a strong front duo. We regard them as clear favourites here, although we do fear the 1-1 result. If you are a chicken, consider covering with 1-1, but otherwise we believe that a home win could be awaiting here.

Recommendation: 1 – 2.26 at Nordicbet

AaB-FC Vestsjælland

Sunday 9/11 15.00

AaB (6th) face the challenging task of competing in three competitions at the same time (league, cup and Europa League) and combined with a long list of injuries, it is mission impossible to be successful everywhere. The end result: AaB are semi-successful in what they do: placed in the middle of the table in the league, advancing in the cup through 120 minutes football and 2 wins out of 4 in Europa League. It was evident that AaB prioritized Europa League in the past week. They fielded a semi “B”-team in the league Monday (won nevertheless 2-0 against Silkeborg) followed by fielding the best team at Dynamo Kiev on Thursday (lost 2-0 but put in a good effort). With the 3rd game within a week awaiting the question is what they will do. Our guess is that AaB might have to rest a few players (alternatively, field a team with fatigued players). All the rotation is naturally not good for AaB who according to our stats on ability to create chances are only surpassing FC Vestsjælland (see our quality/luck graph on Twitter). FC Vestsjælland (10th) have some similarities to a poorly constructed house at the moment. They surely fall apart easily, and have only been able to come from behind and gain points in one match all season. In the past three weeks the 1-4 home against Esbjerg and 0-5 at Brøndby are concerning. FC Vestsjælland started the season with great energy under the new head coach Michael Hansen, but that energy appears gone now. They especially struggle in away matches (lost six out of seven – and only managed to beat Silkeborg luckily). As they play at the moment they deserve to be a part of the relegation race, and it is difficult to find positives.

Two teams that are challenged at the moment! AaB are challenged by their match schedule, while FC Vestsjælland are challenged by own poor performances. There is too much uncertainty surrounding how AaB will line-up, so we will not recommend betting on a home win here. Instead the under 2.5 goals bet looks interesting. Both teams are struggling with the chance creation.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.02 at Unibet