FC Vestsjælland-Brøndby

Monday 4/11 19.00

After a three game winning streak, Brøndby (10th) has entered a three game draw streak and are still dangerously close to the relegation line. The game has improved since the first rounds but without midfielder Thomas Kahlenberg it seems to have stagnated. The goals have been missing as well. Only one in the last three matches has proved that the tall striker Simon Makienok is an essential part of the squad and without him it is up to the loaned Kenneth Zohore to score but he doesn’t look as sharp as Makienok. Finally the hyped defender Khalid Boulahrouz got his debut and did well. Afterwards he said that he was far from his top form but if he can avoid injuries he could improve the defence a lot. After a good start FC Vestsjælland (8th) are now dropping towards the bottom of the table. An impressive match against Esbjerg was replaced by a dreadful performance in Viborg. Striker Thiago Maranhao received an injury and is out for the year and alternative Tshibamba doesn’t look like an adequate replacement; a blow for the struggling offence. At the other end of the pitch right back Oliver Lund is out due to suspension which will open up for winger Szymanowski. FC Vestsjælland’s best eleven also dropped out of the cup this midweek losing to 1st Division club Vejle (1-2), so morale must be low.

FC Vestsjælland have said that the away section of the small stadium is already sold out. This will probably mean that there are equal amounts of Brøndby fans and FCV fans. So it would be half a home game for the visiting team. We believe that they stand a good chance of winning although their goal scoring drought is concerning.

Idea: 2 – 2.20 Mermaidbet

FC Midtjylland-Esbjerg

Sunday 3/11 19.00

FC Midtjylland (1st) got their first loss of the season (1-2) after a fairly even match. FC Midtjylland have now played five matches without a win. They are not exactly showing championship potential. The squad situation is getting better but several players are not in top form.  Their lone striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen has not scored in six matches. Playing with only one striker you certainly rely on him to score goals, so it is natural that his crisis is very connected with the team’s crisis. FC Midtjylland will be without their captain, right back Kristian Bak Nielsen, who is suspended. Kolja Afriyie is not the best cover, but Esbjerg’s left wing is not the strongest, so no big concern. Esbjerg (6th) have thrown their good start away by losing three league matches in a row. The many Europa League matches have undoubtedly taken its toll on the limited squad depth. Esbjerg are still leading their matches in terms of chances and possession, but they have failed to make chances really big mainly because several Esbjerg players shoot at first sight of target. Especially the Ankersen twins have done so lately. They are undoubtedly skilled players, but football is a team sport and they sometimes seem to forget. Esbjerg are without their suspended captain Hans Henrik Andreasen and maybe also their visionary midfielder Lekven. These are important absentees that will give Midtjylland space in midfield.

FC Midtjylland are favourites. They have the home field advantage, but other than that it should be a fairly equal match. FC Midtjylland should dominate the midfield, but this could be to Esbjerg’s advantage since they have a quality counter attack. We pick an Asian Handicap away win as our idea in a fairly difficult match betting wise.  

Idea: 2(AH +0.25) – 2.15 Bet365

AaB-OB

Saturday 2/11 17.00

Things are starting to look better for OB (4th). After two victories at Esbjerg and SønderjyskE and a draw against Brøndby, in which winger Rasmus Falk was unstoppable, they are now in the top six. They want to stay there after visiting the 2nd place in the league namely AaB (2nd). Manager Troels Bech started with only one man on top in a 4-5-1. We think that OB has the best midfield in the Superliga and making it more compact could be a good idea. It worked when Brøndby visited. Even though it was a draw OB created chances and could have won but they needed a top striker. In the same match defender Anders Møller Christensen went out with a concussion and is probably out for this match. It is a loss for the defence because he is experienced and played well against Brøndby, but his replacement Høegh did so too. AaB have risen to 2nd place and although there is no consistency in their result. Unlike other teams AaB doesn’t have winning or losing streaks and they are still one of the top teams at the moment. Striker Rasmus Jönsson could be the needed replacement for Helenius (now Aston Villa) and he assisted on the own goal SønderjyskE scored. On the other end of the pitch left back Jakob Ahlmann is back after a suspension. Both squads have a cup match this midweek so although AaB might have a small advantage since they face a weaker opponent.

The two teams match up quite well and there are no apparent mismatches between their expected starting line-ups. It is a match without a clear favourite. Both squads are in good form at the moment and it is a close call. We reckon that even though OB are visiting they could continue their streak of not losing.

Recommendation: X2 – 1.95 Bet365

AGF-Viborg

Sunday 3/11 14.00

Dressed in camouflage outfit AGF (5th) managed to take a much needed win in Esbjerg (2-0); their first in six matches.  Coach Sørensen changed from the malfunctioning 4-5-1 to a 4-4-2 and it brought success. Not that AGF played a good match: they lost the chance statistic 21-9 and only managed to get two shots on target (yes: 100% efficiency). The numbers do not tell the entire story. Esbjerg did not produce a single clear-cut opportunity so in that sense AGF managed to do well. AGF were practically awarded two goals and the big question is whether they will be able to create chances if Viborg do not give them away. One thing should not be forgotten though: AGF got new confidence that could see their game flourish. AGF will be without their “clean-up guy”, midfielder Kasper Povlsen. Hjalte Bo Nørregaard is a decent cover. Viborg (3rd) is a fairy-tale and apparently it is a story without end. The absolute first favourite to take the ticket out of the league proved critics wrong again when they smashed other promoted club FC Vestsjælland (4-1) last weekend to secure a remarkable 3rd place. Viborg’s prime weapon is the counter attack and it was at it’s best with youngster Kevin Mensah netting twice and league top scorer Thomas Dalgaard once. With AGF at the same time being a team with difficulties when given the possession, Viborg should stand a decent chance. Viborg will benefit from the return of left back Poulsen, but on the other hand loses right back Gotfredsen and central midfielder Rømer to suspension; important players, but not irreplaceable.

AGF may get a major boost from winning last weekend. That is the best argument in favour of home win, because based on recent performances Viborg should be better. In that light, it is only due to an underestimation by the bookies, that the odds for Viborg are so juicy. The tactic is clear: defend and wait for counters. It is of great importance that Viborg do not concede the first goal. We believe they will succeed.

Recommendation: 2(Draw No Bet) – 3.50 Unibet

FC Copenhagen-FC Nordsjælland

Saturday 2/11 15.00

The champion and the vice champion are facing each other for the second time this season (first match ended 2-2). A lot of things have changed since then. FC Copenhagen (7th) have appointed a new coach, while FC Nordsjælland (11th) have signed a fan favourite, winger Joshua John. Common for both teams is also a huge improvement in their performances. FC Copenhagen have only lost one league match out of the last ten, while FC Nordsjælland have notched up ten points in the last four matches. For FC Copenhagen it is especially the midfield that has awoken. Winger Nicolai Jørgensen is probably the best player in the league and his return from injury has been crucial. He can score or make the decisive assist (as he did last weekend). The problem is mainly the attacking line where the position as successor to Cornelius (now Cardiff) is still vacant. The current FC Copenhagen strikers have left much to wish for and Vetokele, Santin, Adi and Pourie have combined scored for a meagre seven goals. In 13 matches it is not much for a championship team. FC Nordsjælland’s main problem has been their injuries. They are still struggling on this front and are left without several of their best offensive weapons (specifically Nordstrand, Lorentzen, Christensen and Bech). Nevertheless they have managed to win some matches lately. Their strong left side consisting of Mtiliga and John mainly drives this. Together they have accounted for several of the vital goals or assist. Mtiliga’s offensive raids for instance was the game changer against Midtjylland last weekend (two assists).

FC Nordsjælland only have their strong left wing to count on. Therefore the decision of coach Solbakken with regards to the right wing position of FC Copenhagen could be crucial. If he chooses Gislason he should be home free. Alternative Bolanos is not as skilled defensively and could leave too much space for Mtiliga. We expect Gislason to be chosen and in this case we believe that the offensive abilities of Copenhagen will decide the outcome. The strikers have not impressed and we therefore expect a slim FC Copenhagen win.

Idea: X(0-1) – 3.85 Nordicbet

SønderjyskE-Randers

Friday 1/11 18.30

SønderjyskE (12th) are on the autobahn heading for a bottomless pit and the remaining junctions are sparse. Nordicbet offers 1.30 for SønderjyskE to relegate and this tells a scary story when having in mind that SønderjyskE are only four points from savour. The problem is that almost nobody believes that SønderjyskE have the strength to change this sequence of defeats and disappointments into survival. They have no offense. Their only decent striker, Tommy Bechmann, is long-term injured and their best winger, Johan Absalonsen, is suspended for this match. Their defence, which is thought to be their secure foundation, is rotten and without confidence (last weekend scored own goal and committed penalty). Only light in the darkness is their keeper, Martin Skender. The Croat has made several fantastic stops this autumn. Randers (9th) are one of the teams only four points ahead of SønderjyskE. They’ve only got themselves to blame: conceding two extra-time goals in the last three matches costing them four valuable points. The positive thing is that they are improving and are without defeat in these three (difficult) matches. Their strikers are finally finding the net again with Brock-Madsen scoring last round and Ronnie Schwartz in the previous. A few concerns: winger Jonas Kamper left last match with an injury and is very doubtful. Replacement alternatives: Lundberg and Svensson are not of the same quality. Defensively Randers have been missing strong left back Adama Tamboura, who are struggling with a foot injury, but should be close to returning.

SønderjyskE is a team without confidence, strikers and stable defenders. Randers is a team with renewed confidence and, quite frankly, a better team. We are surprised by the equal assessment by the bookies in spite of SønderjyskE’s poor form and the absence of Absalonsen. For us away win is the clear pick.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 2.62 Betfair
Remember that you can use our link to get a 350 DKK free bet (and maybe use it on this match).

Week 13 round-up

Week 13 brought some much needed success for our Tip of the Week. AaB secured our second successful pick in seven attempts. Not good enough, but at least we are now on the right track. Otherwise it was a tough weekend for betting with lack of success on the rest of our recommendations. We could have used a bit more cynicism from OB (read: Darko Bodul - still nothing more than a circus artist!). But again, that is how betting is: up and down. We have had a bad run for some time now, so hopefully the change of fortune is close. Our record is not good but not hopeless either, so we only need a few good weekends to produce a payback in the region we aim for.

Due to time constraints, we plan on giving you the next weekend's updates tomorrow, Tuesday. Stay tuned.

Randers – FC Copenhagen

Sunday 27/10 17.00

After another loss in Champions League against Galatasaray (1-3) the defending champions FC Copenhagen (7th) might start to focus more on the league, wherein Copenhagen after two wins in a row are back in the title race. This could be bad news for Randers (9th). With left back Pierre Bengtsson returning a strengthened squad will head to Randers. The creativity comes from the wingers and right-winger Rurik Gislason seems to be in good form. A problem is that he will be opposite Adama Tamboura who just might be the best left back in the league. On the other side of the pitch Nicolai Jørgensen is up against Johnny Thomsen. This is a clear mismatch to Jørgensen’s favour. The chances that FC Copenhagen are making are coming from the wingers and with an advantage like this, Randers could be in trouble. Even though FC Copenhagen had a midweek match it might not affect them. Perhaps on the contrary, since 2009 they have gotten 2.6 points per match after a Champions League match. The game against AaB also showed that they might be on the right track again, though the need for a striker is obvious. Igor Vetokele is starting to stir things up a bit but he still needs to prove that he is the one for FC Copenhagen.

The champions are on the right tracks and in this week Randers will be on the receiving end. They are favourites and poised to win. There are some uncertainty about the line-up for both teams: Tamboura and Borring are doubtful for Randers, while FC Copenhagen coach Solbakken might make some changes to his squad after the poor performance in Istanbul. With these conditions in mind, we limit this to a betting idea.

Idea: 2 - 2.05 MermaidBet

Esbjerg-AGF

Monday 28/10 19.00

Esbjerg (3rd) have lost three in a row (including Europa League) and confidence is falling after an otherwise fantastic 2013. Esbjerg were mediocre against Vestsjælland last weekend (1-2) and in addition to a poor result the match resulted in two suspensions: to veteran captain Hans Henrik Andreasen and left back Jonas Knudsen. Especially Andreasen will be missed in the central midfield where alternative Bergvold lacks his work rate. At the same time Esbjerg are playing an Europa League match Thursday night so they might be affected physically and mentally. Especially the latter has been an issue for Esbjerg earlier this season. AGF (8th) made a disappointing performance last weekend vs. FC Nordsjælland (0-1). AGF failed to show any passion and coach Sørensen made some stupid tactical dispositions (again!). Afterwards Sørensen has been the key figure in the media after accusations of poor man management. AGF have an almost full squad to choose from, although several players are far from their best. AGF have a strong midfield however and they should have a good match-up against a weaker than usual Esbjerg midfield.

Esbjerg are the better team, but they have a match Thursday and are in poor form. The form of AGF is not any better (no win in five matches), but we believe that they have a chance against an Esbjerg team that will miss their leader. We keep this as an idea mainly due to the insecurity about AGF due to the recent stories about the coach. Some unsatisfied players might be tempted to lose this in order to get rid of the coach.

Idea: X2 – 1.83 Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-FC Midtjylland

Saturday 26/10 17.00

With four draws in the previous four games the top team FC Midtjylland (1st) are still unbeaten. But they have had some difficulties closing matches to their favour. Midfielder Izunna is back after suspension and midfielder Petter Andersson looks like he is finally coming back after a long break due to injury. This is a big upgrade for the midfield even though they have played well in his absence. With no other suspensions or injuries FC Midtjylland are a top team who just got better. Just as it seemed that everything got better with a victory in Aarhus, FC Nordsjælland (11th) got some bad news during the week. Midfielder Søren Christensen is out again with a groin injury for four weeks. Fortunately team captain, midfielder Nicolai Stokholm, and defender Michael Jakobsen are back after suspensions. Stokholm could help win the midfield for FC Nordsjælland although he will face a tough task against a solid Midtjylland midfield. A problem for FC Nordsjælland is that they need a striker to get the ball in. Favourite striker Morten Nordstrand is out and winger Joshua John still needs to show that he can score.

We reckon that FC Midtjylland will get the victory they have been craving for some time. FC Nordsjælland still need a bit of consistency in their starting 11 before the points will come and with new injuries it does not look like points will come this weekend.

Idea: 2 – 2,55 Nordicbet

OB-Brøndby

Sunday 27/10 19.15

OB (4th) are in an unusual position; they have positive problems. After their first two-win streak in almost a year several players return from injury or suspension. The problem is that the team has a score line of 8-2 after two impressive away wins. So why change? Actually the current OB team could improve by making some adjustments. Norwegian international Ruud should be a natural choice in the battle with Diarra for right back, while our favourite villain Skoubo might actually be a better solution than the circus artist Bodul for the spot in attack. It should not matter much since OB’s strength lies in their dynamic midfield, where all four players have a high level and also a lot of confidence. Brøndby (10th) have also improved their confidence with five successive matches without defeat. Unfortunately several players have fitness issues, which had its effect in the last match against Viborg where Brøndby needed the player to score the deciding goal. Striker Makienok (40% of team goals) are a confirmed absentee, while defenders Albrechtsen and Boulahrouz and midfielder Kahlenberg are all doubtful. All players should grab a starting spot if ready, so news regarding them is important. Albrechtsen and Kahlenberg were not attending training on Wednesday while Boulahrouz is still working on his fitness.

We expect a very entertaining match, where OB’s offensive approach will open options for Brøndby. Scoring should be inevitable. We believe that OB should stand at least similar chances as Brøndby due to the home field advantage, the momentum and the injury situation in Brøndby. In our opinion the market are too impressed by a Brøndby team who has failed to beat Viborg and FC Nordsjælland in the last two rounds.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0) – 2.10 Betfair

Remember that you can use our link to get a 350 DKK free bet (and maybe use it on this match).

Viborg-FC Vestsjælland

Friday 25/10 18.30

For the unbiased viewer this is probably not the most intriguing match. The two promoted clubs both practise a very cautious and physical style. Do not expect to see many goals nor technical masterpieces.  Viborg (5th) arrive from an impressive draw in Brøndby (0-0), but it was mostly due to the lack of accuracy of Brøndby. Viborg have been struggling a bit with their offensive display in recent matches where league top scorer Thomas Dalgaard (8 goals this season) has not been served by his teammates.  It seems like the opponents are now aware about how to cope with the blond striker. Viborg will be without their veteran left back, Christopher Poulsen, and he is not easily replaceable. FC Vestsjælland (6th) surprised (us included) with a 2-1 victory against Esbjerg last weekend. It was a nice win since FC Vestsjælland managed to limit Esbjerg’s dangerous offense and at the same time create danger at every single offensive set piece. Against Viborg’s strong headers (fronted by Ogunbiyi) it will probably not be their main threat, but they should instead have good chances over the flanks. Especially right-winger, Marc Dal Hende, should have a good match-up against expected left back replacement Patrick Bang Nielsen. Dal Hende has been showing good things in recent weeks. The two teams met in Viborg just a month ago where the home team won 2-0 after two very late goals in a match where Vestsjælland were better.

Three factors to explain our pick:

1.     Momentum. FC Vestsjælland come from a win and a nice comeback against two top teams, Esbjerg and FC Midtjylland.

2.     Match-up. The absence of Christopher Poulsen leaves Viborg’s left side in a vulnerable state.

3.     Last match. FC Vestsjælland were better in the last match, but simply failed to capitalize.

Since the two teams take a defensive approach, we find it necessary to insure against the draw.

Recommendation: 2 (Draw No Bet) – 2.20 Bet365

AaB-SønderjyskE

Sunday 27/10 14.00

AaB (2nd) missed out on a great chance to catch up on leaders Midtjylland by losing 3-0 in Parken last weekend. The result was not unusual. AaB have a tradition of getting beaten when they play there. AaB played a decent match and could (with a more friendly referee) possibly have claimed a point. Nevertheless, the match should not affect AaB much towards this match since the big picture has been good. They have a strong midfield and striker Jönsson is potentially a real goal getter. He has been struggling with a minor injury for some time, but hopefully he will be fully fit for Sunday. AaB will be without defender Ahlmann. Patrick Kristensen is the alternative, which is a slight weakening. SønderjyskE (12th) have been horrendous in recent matches. The last three matches have been one-sided defeats. Over the recent years SønderjyskE have had a solid backbone with individuals (Vibe and Antipas) to take care of the scoring. Now these individuals have left without good replacements and the backbone is not looking solid anymore. The end product is something very poor and combined with the absence of their only quality striker Tommy Bechmann, SønderjyskE are left in a critical state. AaB won the last match deservedly (away) 3-1 with a weaker team against a stronger SønderjyskE.

Despite of AaB’s traditional defeat in Parken, we believe that they have a lot more quality than struggling SønderjyskE. We believe that AaB stand at least a 60% winning chance with the main risk being own inability to score. SønderjyskE are not very dangerous at the moment especially since striker Bechmann is injured (highlighted by two of last three goals coming from penalties).

Tip of the Week: 1 - 1.80 Mermaidbet

Week 12 round-up

A good week! Well, if you ignore our terrible Tip of the Week statistic. With a hit-rate of only 17% we are naturally very disappointed with our success in this category. We hope that fortune will change soon. Analysis of our former Tip of the Week bets has shown that the market movement after our recommendation has mostly shifted in the right direction. By right direction we mean that the odds on our recommendation has fallen signalling that our assessment of the match has been correct (in the eyes of the market). Picking out the two recent bets, we've seen the odds drop from 2.56 to 2.44 (this round) and from 2.82 to 2.54 (previous round). Arbitrage could have been made by buying our bet at the moment of publishing and selling it at match start. Naturally we want and expect that we will have success in more than predicting the movement in the odds market and we hope to register successful Tip of the Week bets starting from next week. But of course there are no guarantees in betting.

The positive thing is that our other recommendation has been a good success with a nice surplus. Our ideas went 3 for 3 this weekend and is very close to break-even. And finally our new introduction, #Twitbets, has started off with a good surplus as well, so follow us on Twitter for more!

Next picks will be posted Wednesday.

Round 12	Hit Rate	Total (units)	ROI
Tip of the Week	0%	-1,00	0%
Recommendations	50%	0,85	143%
Recommendations Total	33%	-0,15	95%
Ideas	100%	2,93	198%
#Twitbets	50%	0,95	148%
Total	Hit Rate	Total (units)	ROI
Tip of the Week	17%	-3,10	48%
Recommendations	42%	1,64	114%
Recommendations Total	33%	-1,46	92%
Ideas	45%	-0,68	97%
#Twitbets	67%	1,29	143%

To understand the tabels:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

FC Copenhagen-AaB

Sunday 20/10 19.00

Three potential outcomes of this match:

1. Copenhagen are in the hunt for a championship.

X. Satisfying for AaB. Copenhagen can forget about championship.

2. AaB are serious title challengers.

With that outlined we can go through the teams. FC Copenhagen (8th) took a relatively secure win against SønderjyskE in the last round (2-1). Concerning however that Copenhagen were unable to score more and get a clean sheet against an opponent that wanted nothing. Copenhagen are getting better though and things are more positive than at the start of the competition. Especially winger Rurik Gislason is a joy. He is really at the top of his game and proved this with an outstanding long-range goal in the last match. The minus is that the club is still searching for a real goal getter. New signings Fanendo Adi and Igor Vetokele are not convincing. FC Copenhagen will be without left back Pierre Bengtsson. Christoffer Remmer is a decent cover. AaB (2nd) are in great financial trouble, but this cannot be seen on the pitch. They have delivered some impressive performances, but also had their off-days. The point is that you never really know what you get. Based on the last match, you should expect fireworks, because that was what the AaB offense delivered (3-1 vs. Viborg). Midfielder Kasper Kusk and striker Rasmus Jönsson had an outstanding day. Unfortunately for AaB, Jönsson is doubtful, and alternative Søren Frederiksen is no Ronaldo (one goal in ten matches). Both clubs seem to have an advantage at the right wing (Kusk vs. Remmer and Gislason vs. Ahlmann) and we could expect to see Kusk and Gislason play main roles in this match.

AaB are notoriously poor in Parken (five last games without scoring). In a match where we find it hard to spot any value, we place our idea pretty much on the basis of this information. The teams seem fairly priced in our opinion. Copenhagen should be favourites with home support and some good match-up’s. But we acknowledge that AaB have a decent chance of winning.

Idea: 1 – 1.80 Unibet

Brøndby-Viborg

Sunday 20/10 17.00

Brøndby (9th) have been on a recent hot streak with ten points in four matches. They could be a challenger for European spots with the effort and quality they have put into it lately. These ambitions suffered a blow however with the recent information that striker Simon Makienok is injured for a month. The high and strong Makienok is the main force of Brøndby with six goals scored (40% of team goals). Without him Kenneth Zohore is next in line and he is a player of almost same quality and stature. The problem is that he is struggling with a hip injury and therefore doubtful for this match. If Zohore is unfit, Brøndby are either forced to make some adjustments within the current squad, for example by moving Antipas on top with Hasani just behind him, or use discarded strikers like Bernburg or Akpoveta. Nevertheless, if Zohore is not fit, it is a clear disadvantage for the offensive possibilities of the home side. Media attention will probably by faced at new signing Khalid Bouhlarouz, the Dutch cannibal, but we do not think his eventual appearance will have much influence on the result. Viborg (4th) have been poor recently (also when winning). The manager has probably noted this since Viborg surprised by signing two new players Monday, midfielder Figueiredo and striker Grella. Especially the former is deemed good chances to impress. These players are jokers since their current level is unknown to the opponents (and us). Viborg are still without the injured couple of Lerager and Egeris.

It is a difficult match for a better. Much depends on the solution Brøndby choose in order to replace Makienok. If the solution is one of the discarded players we believe that Viborg will stand a good chance. Therefore we propose Viborg with handicap as a possible bet, but we urge you to think twice.

Idea: 2 (AH +1) – 1.88 Bet365

FC Midtjylland-Randers

Saturday 19/10 17.00

FC Midtjylland (1st) are losing their grip of the first place after three consecutive winless games. The last loss of points was however more stupid than due to poor performance. A (wrong) red card, an own goal and a goal in stoppage time led to a disappointing 2-2 draw against promoted FC Vestsjælland. The match had some consequences as well. Ball-winner Izunna is now suspended, while Hedinsson’s return led to a small setback with regard to his injury. With Petter Andersson doubtful as well, FC Midtjylland are potentially without three central midfielders. In that case they could be forced to do some repositioning by either moving offensive midfielders or defenders to the central position. Nevertheless a concerning evolvement for FC Midtjylland since Randers normally field a strong central midfield with Keller and Bjarnason. Randers (10th) are underperforming based on their squad. Coach Todd tried to switch goalkeeper in their last match, but this had limited success. The potential “white prince”, striker Djiby Fall got a long-term injury so things are not that uplifting. However the injury situation is actually quite good with no other important players in danger of missing this match. When fielding their best eleven Randers should stand a good chance against FC Midtjylland, but the question is whether they will be able to break down the strong Midtjylland defence. In that case they have to win the battle for the central midfield. In order to avoid conceding the match-up between quick winger Igboun and right back Thomsen is key with Igboun being the immediate favourite.

There are a lot of interesting match-ups in this match that will decide the end product. If we look at the odds: we find that Randers stand a better chance than the bookies give them. We base this on their likely midfield superiority. FC Midtjylland are natural favourites, but 2.25 is a good offer for them not winning. And we are very close to recommending it.

Idea: 2(AH +0.5) – 2.25 Mermaidbet