Week 22 round-up

That was a cruel round. Only one out of six bets succeeded (thanks, Brøndby). We were quite surprised by the results in the round and our feeling is that most experts who deal regularly with the Superliga were. Especially the inability of FC Nordsjælland to win against Silkeborg was disappointing (2-2). FC Nordsjælland took an early lead and should have doubled that. Instead, two quick and unlikely goals by Silkeborg ruined our bet. Nothing to do about that. The value was surely there, but nothing is certain in betting. We find comfort in our good results for the season, where we still record a +6% return. This week will be without tips from us (no matches), but we look forward to returning next week.

OB-Esbjerg

Friday 20/3 18.30

OB (9th) played a rather poor match last weekend and lost deservedly 2-0 against Brøndby. They failed to adjust their playing style to the poor pitch in Brøndby. When they started to play simpler in the second half, Brøndby were put under pressure. OB have a team with great potential and they should be able to advance during the remainder of this season. This match welcomes the strong midfielder Martin Spelmann back from suspension, and striker Thomas Dalgaard is finally starting to look fit after his rib injury. This might lead to a formation change to a 4-4-2 to use all OB’s strong attacking weapons at once (Falk, Larsen, Zohore and Dalgaard). Esbjerg (10th) are experiencing a miserable period. They have lost three league matches in a row and have played poorly (tough opponents though). Adding to insult, the strongest player in recent matches, midfielder Jeppe Andersen, suffered a season-ending knee injury in the last match, while strong left back Jonas Knudsen is out with a shoulder injury. Esbjerg have no other left backs in the squad and will be forced to use a central defender instead (Stenderup or Almebäck). Esbjerg will probably also have to do without their charismatic head coach, Niels Frederiksen, who was expelled from the last match after kicking some water bottles. In total, the situation looks grim for a Esbjerg team low on morale.

OB are free of absences and face a demoralised Esbjerg team. Esbjerg still have many fine players, but OB have to be clear favourites here. The potential to use the four strong offensive weapons at once, should be concerning for a Esbjerg defence that has not looked compelling in 2015.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.10 at Bet365

UPDATE: OB striker Zohore suffered a knee injury during the week, and is almost certainly out for the match. A tough blow, since a new striker duo with him and Dalgaard was in store. Instead, OB will probably field their usual 3-4-3 formation with Dalgaard on top instead of Zohore. No longer much value left with the odds at 2.05 at Bet365. 

UPDATE v2: OB maybe also with out energetic right midfielder Desler. He has been strong recently, so not good. However, Esbjerg will be without their striker Rise, the only dangerous player in the squad currently, and the odds have risen on OB. Looks like a good bet right now.

FC Midtjylland-Hobro

Saturday 21/3 17.00

FC Midtjylland (1st) have actually been quite average in their performances so far in 2015. They have earned 10 out of 12 possible points, but the play has been poor and they have only survived due to their force in set pieces. 8 out of 9 goals scored in 2015 have come from set pieces! This won’t be easy to continue against Hobro who are strong at set pieces. FC Midtjylland rank only 7th in SoTR after the first four matches in 2014 (SoTR: 48.6%). They have clearly suffered without the strong winger Pione Sisto who is injured. They should benefit from the return of strong midfielder Petter Andersson here, but striker Morten Duncan is out with an injury. However, FC Midtjylland have the league top goalscorer, Martin Pusic, as a back-up so no major concern. The last time FC Midtjylland met Hobro they smashed them 5-1 with Duncan and Sisto scoring four goals. Hobro were without talismanic defensive midfielder Damborg in that match, so things could be very different this time around. Hobro (7th) are making a remarkable performance. After three wins in a row the club from small-town Hobro (11.000 inhabitants) are closer to European qualification than relegation. They have done so with a magnificent defending display, only one goal conceded in 2015. At the same time, they are the team with fewest shots on target allowed in 2015: 10.  They are still struggling to get their offense in gear, but with players like Hvilsom and Antipas, they have some players who are capable of scoring out of nowhere.

Hobro have been strong in defence and FC Midtjylland have lacked offensive power. This looks like a under match, although the last match between the two teams scares. However, Hobro are in the strongest line-up and appears to have improved, while FC Midtjylland have definitely been more dangerous than now. FC Midtjylland should win this, but it could easily end 1-0 or 2-0.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.00 at Bet365

Silkeborg-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 22/3 13.00

Silkeborg (12th) finally had some luck and managed to score four times after only three shots on target last weekend (one own goal). With two wins in 2015, they are moving closer to FC Vestsjælland in 11th position, but the 10th position is still 13 points ahead, which seems impossible. Especially since Silkeborg by no means have dominated their matches in 2015; they have just had some of the luck they lacked in 2014. In fact, only FC Vestsjælland have had fewer shots on target than Silkeborg in 2015. So do not get carried away by the scores, although the results might spark some much-needed confidence. Silkeborg will be without their top goalscorer, offensive midfielder Emil Scheel (five goals this season), who is out with an injury. Furthermore, striker Nicolaj Agger and central defender Simon Jakobsen are both suspended, leaving Silkeborg short on players (have a very slim squad). Scheel and Agger have scored 60% of Silkeborg's goals this season. FC Nordsjælland (6th) were the most convincing team in the last round. They really outplayed a hapless FC Vestsjælland team, and they should have won bigger than 2-0. The Swedish stand-in for Uffe Bech, David Moberg-Karlsson, played another great match, and it won’t be easy for Bech to return to the starting line-up despite of being close to full fitness. FC Nordsjælland finally got their new Icelandic striker Baldvinsson on the score-sheet and will be hoping it will be a confidence booster. But one thing is FC Nordsjælland home, and another thing is FC Nordsjælland away. They are typically much stronger at home on the artificial pitch (as seen by the 6-0 score in last two home matches).

Silkeborg are starting to gain some momentum, but they have not played well, and they are without three regulars here. It looks like a very difficult mission for them. On the other hand, FC Nordsjælland are sparkling and key winger Uffe Bech is set to return for some minutes here. FC Nordsjælland should be clear favourites.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 2.30 at Bet365

UPDATE: The absentees have forced Silkeborg to only call up 16 players (18 players possible). And the quality on the bench is not impressive.

AaB-SønderjyskE

Sunday 22/3 15.00

AaB (4th) will be very disappointed after the loss to minnows Hobro on Monday (1-0). AaB had to chance to catch Randers in 3rd place, but played a poor match, where midfield general Rasmus Würtz was severely missed. Würtz is suffering from a bothersome injury, and his return is uncertain (could be here, could be later). The positive news is the return of his normal back-up Thomas Augustinussen who returns from suspension. AaB are still not creating much offensively and are continuing to ride their luck with an above average scoring percentage (combined with an above average saving percentage). However, AaB are always strong at home and put in a good effort. SønderjyskE (8th) have lost two matches in a row (1-8) and must be wondering what happened. They had only lost three matches all season until then, but suddenly efficiency and stupid personal mistakes were against them. They are still a solid side and should be able to rebound. They will have to do it without the strong central midfielder Adama Guira who is banned. A problematic loss, but SønderjyskE managed to get a 1-1 draw in Parken the last time he was banned. SønderjyskE are typically strongest when playing away since they can practise their counter-attacking style, which will also be the case here.

This match is screaming under. None of the offensives have been spectacular lately (we know AaB have scored a few goals, but mostly from splendid long-range efforts). SønderjyskE will be cautious defensively after letting in eight goals in two matches, and we should see them be very focused on the defensive organisation.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.72 at Nordicbet

UPDATE: Würtz set to return for AaB. Good news for the home team.

FC Vestsjælland-Brøndby

Sunday 22/3 17.00

FC Vestsjælland (11th) are undoubtedly the worst performing team in the league currently. A SoTR of 27% in 2015 really paints a picture of a team that is a level under the opposition. Head coach Michael Hansen is frantically trying to find the right composition of players, but seems to be too patient with the new winter signings who have not contributed with anything else than disturbing the team spirit. The last match at FC Nordsjælland could have ended much worse, and it is difficult to see any other outcome than relegation. The local municipality considers offering free entrance as a desperate attempt to spark some hope. No reported injuries or suspensions though. Brøndby (5th) managed to win another home match last weekend (2-0 against OB). Had it not been for the impressive home statistic (8 wins in 11 matches), Brøndby could have been close to relegation. Brøndby have only managed to win one away match all season (a lucky win), and have lost the last four. However, there must be optimism in Brøndby who have played some fine matches in 2015 (just poor outcomes) and Brøndby are the team with most shots on target in 2015: 27. Brøndby is set to welcome back an important trio of Daniel Agger, Dario Dumic and Johan Elmander who all missed the last match, and Brøndby could, for once, field their preferred eleven.

Although the statistics are clearly not in favour of an away win here, the performances in 2015 certainly are. Brøndby should have more quality, morale and fan support here. Odds for away win are not spectacular but could be worth a try with small stakes.

Recommendation: 2 – 1.90 at Nordicbet

UPDATE: Agger still out due to sickness. Brøndby with and without Agger have been Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hide, so far from optimal for our bet that he is out. Offensively, Brøndby should be able to give FC Vestsjælland problems.

FC Copenhagen-Randers

Sunday 22/3 19.00

FC Copenhagen (2nd) have won six out of the last seven matches (and some would argue that they should have won against OB too). They have come alive after a disappointing start to the season, mostly benefitting from a strong defensive organisation (only three goals allowed in last ten matches). Furthermore, finally getting striker Andreas Cornelius on the score sheet last weekend could be a signal of better offensive times ahead. Defender Mathias Zanka returns from suspension to replace Per Nilsson in the central defence. FC Copenhagen should be able to field the strongest eleven for this match. Randers (3rd) seem to have outplayed their chances for a silver medal after three league losses in a row. Randers have actually been at least as good as their opponent in all three matches, but they have been rather unlucky. They are still a strong team with a good organisation. For this match, they will have to do with the Icelandic midfielder Elmar Bjarnason who is suspended. A good player to be without, and although the alternative Jonas Borring is also a fine player, Bjarnason’s defensive skills would be more valuable against FC Copenhagen.

FC Copenhagen are dominating every team they meet at the moment, and Randers will probably not be to do anything about that. The question is how long time Randers can keep FC Copenhagen from scoring. A low-scoring home win is our call for this match. Under 2.5 goals is obvious but odds are set accordingly.

Idea: 1 – 1.95 at Ladbrokes

UPDATE: Right back Johnny Thomsen still out for Randers. Thus, they are without two important players. FC Copenhagen can field strongest line-up.

Week 21 round-up

Disappointing! After having success on all three recommendations last weekend, we failed on all three this weekend. We were a bit unlucky with our SønderjyskE-bet. They lost 1-4 but dominated the shooting statistic with 21-6; Silkeborg finally had some of the luck they have been missing all season. Our other recommendations did not deserve to go through. Nothing to do about that, sometimes you are just off. We are still well in surplus for the season and hope to rebound next week. We plan on uploading next bets tomorrow (Tuesday)!

Randers-FC Midtjylland

Friday 13/3 18.30

Randers (3rd) have had a tough week. Three losses in a row including a loss to Silkeborg on home soil and a cup exit on penalties leave Randers in a demoralised state. They have actually played fine matches and surely deserved more. They have a very solid team, are well-organised, and importantly: they are almost free of injuries. The only concern is the strong right back Johnny Thomsen who missed the last match. His probable absence is especially problematic since FC Midtjylland have some great wingers. Randers might re-use the young 17-year old Mikke Kallesøe on the position, but this would be a gutsy move. FC Midtjylland (1st) are winning without playing good football. They are just a too good team to lose at the moment. They have so many good players, so even on bad days they manage to win. It is especially their abilities on set pieces that have saved them: six out of seven goals in 2015 have been from set pieces! For this match, they will be without the strong midfielder Petter Andersson who is suspended. FC Midtjylland have solid back-ups but Andersson is an influential player why his absence could hurt FC Midtjylland.

FC Midtjylland are without some important offensive players (Sisto and Andersson), and need a good day from Igboun. This is probable if Thomsen is absent for Randers. If not, Randers could have a fine chance of matching FC Midtjylland who are not a great away side. Randers should be very motivated to get some points before they lose the vital 3rd place, and we should expect an eager Randers side. Despite of the offensive absences for FC Midtjylland, the odds on over are still interesting. I doubt we will see any of the teams take a defensive approach here, and a match with goals is probable(seven of last eight league H2H’s have gone over 2.5 goals!).

Ideas: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.875 at Bet365

Over 2.5 goals – 2.20 at Ladbrokes

UPDATE:
Right back Thomsen ruled out for Randers. Not good for home bet, but nice for over, since winger Igboun will have a easier day against anyone else. 

SønderjyskE-Silkeborg

Saturday 14/3 17.00

SønderjyskE (8th) had an amazing streak going, but it ended with a 4-0 loss in FC Nordsjælland last weekend. Before that SønderjyskE had won all nine matches in 2015 (including six friendlies and one cup match). It is quite a statistic from a team that have been very hard to beat this season (only four league losses in 20 matches!). SønderjyskE were probably a bit tired last weekend, mentally and physically, after many games including a 120-minute cup match. Several players committed personal mistakes that are uncharacteristic for SønderjyskE. They have now had a week, where they have been able to reload and refocus. They have a strong squad and are reportedly without injuries. Silkeborg (12th) do not have a strong squad. They lack quality, which was once again visible against Hobro last weekend (0-1). They lack width, their bench is no good, and only a few players could get a spot on another Superliga team (Scheel, Pedersen, Ritter). Their chance here is if they can contain SønderjyskE by not allowing them to counter-attack. However, Silkeborg have not been able to play any matches without making at least a few grim defensive errors (which have ended in many conceded goals this season). No injuries reported. Right back Flinta returns from suspension.

There should be quality difference between the two sides. Imagining Silkeborg containing Tommy Bechmann and Marvin Pourie for 90 minutes is difficult. This should be a home win and odds above 1.75 should be fine value.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.825 at Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-FC Vestsjælland

Sunday 15/3 14.00

FC Nordsjælland (6th) got a tremendously important win against SønderjyskE (4-0). FC Nordsjælland had only won one match out of the last ten, and the head coach was starting to feel the pressure. It was also an important match, since some of the new players made a good impression, and star winger Joshua John had his first good game of 2015 with two goals. FC Nordsjælland still expect to be without their greatest player right-winger Uffe Bech, who is suffering from an injury (could maybe see a few minutes here). FC Nordsjælland are particularly strong at home, and will be happy to get another home game just after the motivation booster last weekend. FC Vestsjælland (11th) are in a terrible state. They have lost all three matches in 2015, and the effect of all the new signings seem to be negative. FC Vestsjælland are certainly not playing better football now than before. They lack quality and confidence. However, it is important that midfielders Henrik Madsen (captain) and Jan Kristiansen return from suspension. They should add some experience in an important phase. It is now or never for FC Vestsjælland. The head coach is in severe risk of losing his job.

At first sight this match look like an obvious home win, but the return of Madsen and Kristiansen could stabilise FC Vestsjælland that have looked fragmented. We are still not sure of the true quality of this FC Nordsjælland team that have lost many players in the winter break. Given the artificial turf and thereof the ability to play more offensive football, a small bet on over could be interesting (over 2.5 goals in 8 out 11 matches on Farum Park in this season).

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.20 at Betfair

Esbjerg-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 15/3 17.00

Esbjerg (10th) deliver some volatile performances at the moment. One day they lose and play terrible, the next day they win and play great football. However, it appears that the winter window have left them weaker. They are very dependent on the fitness of striker Lasse Rise (and he is often injured). If he is not on top, Esbjerg lack dangerous strikers and have to rely on their wingers. Another important Esbjerg player is midfielder Magnus Lekven, and he has missed some matches and not been at his best due to injuries. He is also likely to be out here. Central defender Michael Jakobsen is also doubtful. However, one thing is certain: when Esbjerg play at home against teams like Brøndby and FC Copenhagen they bring a lot of energy and are tough to beat. FC Copenhagen (2nd) won the important match against rivals Brøndby with 3-1. FC Copenhagen created many chances (and conceded many) and scored three goals, which was very positive after a period with problems in front of goal. It is problematic that main striker Cornelius is still without a goal in 2015, but he could get a good match-up against an Esbjerg back line who do not have any beast in the air. FC Copenhagen could have some problems in the central defence; the two preferred choices could both be out. Zanka is suspended, while Mikael Antonsson left the last match with an injury. The only good alternative is Per Nilsson, otherwise a midfielder might have to be used in the central defence.

Both teams risk having important absences in the back line. At the same time, we should expect to see a match with a lot of energy and attacking spirit. There should be value in odds on over currently. At the same time, there appear to be much more quality in FC Copenhagen than Esbjerg at the moment, why an away win is also attractive.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 2.38 at Betfair

Idea: 2 – 2.10 at Tipico

Brøndby-OB

Sunday 15/3 19.00

Brøndby (5th) are not the luckiest team at the moment. They play some fine matches, but keep on losing. This should start to affect them mentally. Add to this that they still struggle with consistency in the line-up due to injuries and suspensions. Central defender Dario Dumic and striker Johan Elmander are suspended for this match, while central defender Daniel Agger is doubtful after leaving the last match after feeling bad. Positive is the return of midfielders Thomas Kahlenberg and Christian Nørgaard from suspension. Nevertheless, it is concerning that Brøndby cannot field the same eleven every weekend, and that the defence is so affected by absences, which leaves it vulnerable. Brøndby will try to find strength in the great home support they get. OB (9th) are starting to get something out of the fine team they have. After a terrible start, they have now won five out of the last eight matches. It is a team with good energy and a positive mood at the moment. The suspension of midfielder Martin Spelmann is not the best preparation for a match against Brøndby, where his passion will be missed. OB could benefit from the return of striker Thomas Dalgaard.

Brøndby will probably push forward from the start using the great support from the home fans. If OB can weather the initial storm, the match could be quite open. Brøndby lack some goalscoring quality in front, and therefore we won’t give them more than 50% chance of winning here.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.025 at Bet365

UPDATE: Agger is out for Brøndby. He is a very vital player.

Hobro-AaB

Monday 16/3 19.00

The improbable survival of Hobro (7th) appears to be given with the win against Silkeborg last weekend. With 12 points to the relegation line with 13 matches remaining and fine efforts on the pitch, relegation seems impossible. Hobro have been efficient in recent matches. They have scored early and defended well. However, Hobro are yet to show that they are capable of getting points in matches where they go behind. New signing Mikkel Thygesen has already proved that he is a valuable asset, while other new signing Beckmann has been struggling with injuries and are still to show his level. Striker Quincy Antipas is doubtful with a thigh injury. AaB (4th) have won all league matches in 2015, but the performances have not been volatile. They were great against Esbjerg and poor against Brøndby. Last weekend they managed to beat Randers without the two strong midfielders Kasper Risgaard and Rasmus Würtz. Both of them could return here (Würtz the most probable). It is important with the return of these midfielders since alternative Thomas Augustinussen is suspended. Offensively, AaB have delivered promising things scoring seven goals in the last three matches. With the proximity of the two clubs, AaB should have great support.

Hobro are doing a great job, but they are facing a superior opponent here. If Würtz and Risgaard return anything else than a win would be a disappointing result for AaB. 2.06 for AaB to win is a decent price and worth a shot.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.06 at Nordicbet

UPDATE: Antipas returns for Hobro, while Beckmann is still injured. Würtz is out for AaB, while Risgaard is set to return. AaB will use either Kristensen or Thomsen in the central midfield instead of Würtz and both are fine players with experience in the position. We still believe in a AaB win tonight.

Week 20 round-up (plus list of long-term #Twitbets)

Back to winning ways after the unsuccessful previous weekend. A +1.55 unit return means that we have managed to get a positive return in 11 out of the last 12 weekends! We are still going strong. Nice to see our strongest recommendations having a good weekend. Also our Tip of the Week seems to be awakening (finally!) after three consecutive weeks with success. Lets hope we can get some more success in the upcoming weekend. Stay tuned for more profitable betting tips. In the mean time, you can check out or nice offer in collaboration with Clubgowi.

List of pending long-term #Twitbets:
4/7 2014: To concede most goals: Hobro - 2.00 at Bet25
25/8 2014: Winner: FC Midtjylland - 3.25 at Unibet
25/8 2014: Leader at winter break: FC Midtjylland - 2.25 at Bet25 WIN
25/8 2014: To relegate: Hobro - 2.55 at Danske Spil
25/8 2014: League top goalscorer: Pusic/Cornelius - 4.39 at Unibet
3/11 2014: Hobro to concede 46 goals or more - 2.35 at Bet25
22/12 2014: SønderjyskE to total less than 16.5 draws in the season - 3.80 at Bet25
31/12 2014: To relegate: FC Vestsjælland - 2.00 at Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-SønderjyskE

Saturday 7/3 17.00

FC Nordsjælland (7th) are in a bad situation. With only one win in the last ten league matches, they are performing very unimpressively. The departure of five experienced players (Lorentzen, Nordstrand, Christiansen, Christensen and Runje) in the winter window does not appear to have helped. Last weekend they lost to minnows Hobro (1-0). Compared to that match, they should benefit from the return of left back Mtiliga and central defender Gregor from suspension. Furthermore, vital winger Uffe Bech is set to return after being absent with an injury in the last two matches. He is probably not up to speed though, and doubtful that he will see full participation here. In any case, Bech’s return should improve the morale of FC Nordsjælland who lacked some offensive X-factor in the recent matches. SønderjyskE (6th) are in a different state. Over the last ten league games, they have averaged 1.7 points per game and only lost one game. In fact, they have played 29 games all-season (league, cup, friendlies) and only lost three matches! They are really well-organised and tough to beat. This Wednesday they eliminated Brøndby from the cup, but the match went to extra time, so the SønderjyskE players could be a bit tired here. However, they are without suspension and injuries for important players (central defender Lodberg was absent in the cup match, but we expect him to return here). At the same time, their counter-attacking style is suitable for away matches and FC Nordsjælland’s backline could face another tough day.

To teams in each end of the momentum scale. FC Nordsjælland trying to integrate new players in a time of disappointing performances, and SønderjyskE being successful with continuity in the line-up selection. The long cup match is a negative factor, but otherwise we have a hard time seeing FC Nordsjælland winning this match.

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 2.25 at Unibet

UPDATE: Uffe Bech still out for FC Nordsjælland - bad for their chances. SønderjyskE struggling with minor injuries for Bechmann and Sigurdsson ahead of this match, but nice alternatives are available in the squad.

Silkeborg-Hobro

Sunday 8/3 13.00

Silkeborg (12th) got their first victory of the season last weekend with an impressive 2-1 in Randers. Silkeborg were quite lucky and efficient in front of goal, something that has been a big problem throughout the season. Silkeborg still have the lowest scoring percentage in the league, only scoring on 13.6% of the shots on target (league average is 24.9%). The win could give Silkeborg some new energy, and they will have to win this match if they want to hang on to their obscure dream of survival. Right back Dennis Flinta is suspended, but Jens Martin Gammelby returns from suspension and could replace Flinta. Hobro (8th) got a very important win against a weakened FC Nordsjælland team last weekend (1-0). Hobro played a quite poor match, but the outcome was terrific. Hobro are now 9 points clear of the relegation line, and is in a good position for survival. Hobro might benefit from the return of winger Mikkel Beckmann who was injured in the last match.

A quite even match is in store. Last time they met in Silkeborg, Silkeborg were the better side but had to settle for a 2-2 draw. Hobro have since improved their squad, so this could be even more equal. A draw is our prediction here.

Idea: X – 3.40 at Nordicbet

UPDATE: Beckmann and Antipas out for Hobro. Clear advantage for Silkeborg.

FC Copenhagen-Brøndby

Sunday 8/3 15.00

FC Copenhagen (2nd) suffered a cruel faith in Odense last weekend, where they had many chances to win, before conceding a late own goal and losing 1-0. They are now nine points after league leaders FC Midtjylland, and it seems improbable that they can catch up. Despite of this FC Copenhagen should be very motivated for this home match against their arch rivals Brøndby. FC Copenhagen have looked fine in recent matches, but just need to be a bit more efficient in front of goal (especially striker Andreas Cornelius!). FC Copenhagen are playing a cup match Thursday night after this was written. No reported injuries or suspensions. Brøndby (5th) have had a disappointing start to 2015, and serious talks about a head coach dismissal have begun. Brøndby have played very well actually, but not received points accordingly. The Wednesday cup match against SønderjyskE was not good however (Brøndby lost 4-2 after extra time) and Brøndby could be mentally affected by the poor start. In addition, Brøndby will have to do without four suspended players: striker Johan Elmander, midfielder Thomas Kahlenberg, midfielder Christian Nørgaard and central defender Dario Dumic. Kahlenberg, Elmander and Dumic are important players and especially their experience will be missed in a high-pressure match like this.

FC Copenhagen are a strong home side, while Brøndby are a terrible away side. At the same time, Brøndby will be without several regulars, while FC Copenhagen are expected to use the strongest line-up. This match could be very one-sided, and the main question is whether FC Copenhagen are able to find the net.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.95 at Bet365

FC Midtjylland-Esbjerg

Sunday 8/3 17.00

FC Midtjylland (1st) got a 1-1 result in Brøndby last weekend. In the end, FC Midtjylland were fortunate to get away with a point despite of being one man more for the last half hour. FC Midtjylland are still struggling to find their great play from autumn, but in all fairness it was not possible to play good football on the pitch in Brøndby. On the bright side, new-signed striker, Martin Pusic, got his first goal and he will be the go-to-guy here (he is playing against his former teammates). Unfortunately for FC Midtjylland, they will probably have to do without the strong winger Pione Sisto yet again due to a groin injury. Defenders Jim Larsen and Kristian Bach Bak are expected to return. Esbjerg (9th) played a terrible match against AaB on Monday (lost 1-3), where they were way too naïve in their approach. Esbjerg’s head coach want Esbjerg to practice a high-pressure style (a la Salzburg/Dortmund), but AaB consistently took advantage of Esbjerg’s inability to master this approach. Defensively, Esbjerg look worryingly poor, but they will have a second chance against AaB on Thursday night in a cup match. Esbjerg should have a full squad to choose from, but might be tired with 3 matches in 7 days. Esbjerg have not won in the last seven H2H league matches.

Despite of FC Midtjylland not being fully up to speed and probably without Pione Sisto, they should still be a lot better than Esbjerg. Esbjerg lost three strong players in the winter break (including Pusic), and they do not look as solid as in autumn. This should be a home win, and if Esbjerg intend on using their high-pressure approach again, a bet on many goals is attractive.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.90 at Bet365

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.20 at Ladbrokes

AaB-Randers

Sunday 8/3 19.00

AaB (4th) played their first good match of 2015 on Monday against Esbjerg (won 3-1). AaB were finally capable of setting up their strong midfielders, something that is very important for their success. Unfortunately, both central midfielders, Risgaard and Würtz, got minor injuries in that match, and they are doubtful here. AaB are playing a cup match against Esbjerg on Thursday night. Randers (3rd) got a very disappointing loss to Silkeborg last weekend (1-2). Randers had three shots on the bar in the first half, and was unlucky not to win. However, it was evident that the absence of suspended midfielders, Keller and Bjarnason, was vital. They return here and Randers should have a full squad to choose from. Randers also play a cup match Thursday night (against FC Copenhagen).

Despite of the recent success for AaB and lack of success for Randers, we believe that Randers will be a tough match for AaB. Randers are typically well-organised and difficult to beat, while AaB have had problems creating chances in this season. Additionally if AaB will have to do without their two midfield generals, the match looks very difficult for AaB.

Idea: 2 (DNB) – 2.17 at Nordicbet

FC Vestsjælland-OB

Monday 9/3 19.00

FC Vestsjælland (11th) are in a must-win position seven points behind OB just above the relegation line. FC Vestsjælland signed several new players in the winter break, but they have not capitalised from it. They managed to take a slim win against 1st Division side Brønshøj in Wednesday cup match (2-1), but the performance was not outstanding. For this match, FC Vestsjælland will have to do without their two central midfield veterans, Jan Kristiansen and Henrik Madsen (captain), which is far from optimal for a match of this importance. FC Vestsjælland are likely to change from a 4-4-2 to a 4-3-3 formation (tried it in cup match). The hope is that this formation will give FC Vestsjælland more offensive power. OB (10th) were lucky to get a win against FC Copenhagen last weekend (1-0), but the win must have given them some much needed morale. OB have a quality side on paper, but still needs to make it work on the pitch. New-signing Thomas Dalgaard (league top goalscorer last season) could get his OB-debut in this match, although he is probably not capable of playing a full match yet.

Expect an intense match, where both teams fight against relegation. OB have more quality and with the absences of FC Vestsjælland, the away side must be weak favourites here. Bet365 with very nice odds on away win here. Hurry!

Recommendation: 2 – 2.70 at Bet365

Week 19 round-up

After ten consecutive weeks of positive profit our streak had to come to an end. Sadly, it happened this weekend. We had a bad Sunday, where our analyses were spot on, but results were not in line with what happened on the pitch. Nothing to do about that, bad beats happen. We are not concerned as long as our analyses are correct. However, if you had followed all our tweets you would have received a suggestion to bet on Bjørn Paulsen to score for SønderjyskE. He did at a price of 11.5! Well, it was not a #Twitbets (left out due to the riskiness and limited stake possible), so it is not included in our spreadsheet. We hope to start a new win streak in the upcoming weekend.