8. nov. 2016

The future of SuperligaBets

It has been more than 3 years since I made my first betting preview on SuperligaBets. First suggestion was an under 2.5 goal bet in OB-AGF, a match that eventually ended 3-6. Fortunately, things turned around after this terrible start!

Actually, all three seasons finished has yielded positive profits and this season is currently sitting at a +14 % yield. I have made previews and bets on all 670 Superliga matches since OB-AGF and made an overall +5 % yield by doing so. I think, I have proved that is possible to make a solid profit on the Danish Superliga – even under the challenging rule that a pick had to be made on every single match. Furthermore, the profit is not based on early market picks, but on picks made after bookmakers with high liquidity has entered the market. In 2016, I have looked into how my position is compared to the closing odds. 68 out of 90 recommendations (including Tip of the Week) have had lower closing odds. In other words, 76% of the time you would not be able to get my price at kick-off. I am quite satisfied with this statistic as it suggests that my picks are valuable.

I started this site, when I was a student with a decent amount of spare time. Now I have a full-time job and a lovely daughter. In other words, the free hours are sparse – and a lot of time is every week invested in providing betting previews to SuperligaBets. It has made me question whether it is worth it. I enjoy making the previews, but I think it has turned into production. I make the weekly previews, get 4-6 new followers every week and a few kind words (I really appreciate them!). I can see that markets often change rapidly, when I make my recommendations, so someone must be profiting. So I think, I am doing someone a favour, but am I doing myself a favour? I make zero income on SuperligaBets and frankly, I don’t think it is worth it at the moment given the limited interaction it generates. I think my time would be better spent using the time I would use on previews on other things.

As said, I do enjoy making the previews, so I am willing to continue, but only if I start generating a satisfying payment. I have thought of the following possibilities: 

  • Changing SuperligaBets to a paid service (maybe only for a limited group to protect prices)
  • Finding a site sponsor (not looking for affiliate deals, where I only profit when my clients lose – that is just bad incentives..)
  • Working for another site

If you have an opinion (job offer, sponsorship offer, other ideas or perhaps being a part of a paid service), please let me know. You can write to me at superligabets@gmail.com

I will consider my options in the upcoming week.

Kind regards,

Alexander

6. nov. 2016

Week 16 Superliga round-ups

Excellent round. 6 for 8. +3.30 units. Had 2 recommendations that both won. Both had significantly lower closing odds, which is a good indicator for a value pick. Season is now sitting on +14% yield total and +31% yield on all recommendations. Now we are off to internationals, I might have some news during the coming week though.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

AGF-Silkeborg 2 +0.5 (TOTW)
Our pick: 2.08
Closing odds: 1.85

Randers-FC Nordsjælland 1
Our pick: 1.90
Closing odds: 1.77


2. nov. 2016

Week 16 Superliga previews

Esbjerg-AaB
Friday 4/11 18.00
Esbjerg are looking very fragile at the moment. They played a decent first half in the last round, but then lost 5-0 in second half to AGF. The loss was mostly due to stupid defensive mistakes, including two big mistakes by the goalkeeper. Head coach has reacted by benching goalkeeper Højbjerg for Jonas Jensen. Jensen has limited experience for this level, so it will be interesting to see if he will improve the defensive stability. Esbjerg is also set to bench central defender Nordvik, who I believe to be one of the better defenders in the squad, while central midfielder Jørgensen is set to replace Nielsen. I don’t like the outlook of Esbjerg’s likely central midfield with Jørgensen and Palsson, as I see them as too similar and not complementing each other. Esbjerg also got hammered the last time the two got the chance in the central midfield (3-1 at FC Nordsjælland). Offensively, Esbjerg will find some optimism in seeing main striker Hvilsom scoring in the last round, while winger Mabil is looking like a great weapon on the flanks. AaB have been playing some decent matches recently, but they have been rather unlucky and inefficient. They lack a good finisher and they will hope that the returning Enevoldsen could be the solution. Enevoldsen was quite dangerous last season, but has not been at his best this season, and he probably won’t be at his best here either. Other striker alternative Pohl is injured and the same is the case for regular winger Meilinger. However, he is likely to be replaced by Flores who returns from injury. Overall, AaB look decent in the defensive parts, but perhaps lack some quality and consistency in the offensive positions.

Esbjerg are low on confidence and making several changes for this match – some which I don’t like. AaB have some offensive issues, although the form is looking okay despite the lack of points recently. I just can’t see how things should turn out well for Esbjerg with the expected changes. I would cautiously back AaB if anything here.


Idea: 2 (AH -0.25) – 1.66 at SBOBet

AGF-Silkeborg
Friday 4/11 20.15
AGF found confidence in a 6-2 win against a terrible Esbjerg side. It was AGF’s first league win in seven games, so they are not exactly in top form, but maybe the big win can mark a turning point. I don’t think they were particularly good against Esbjerg (see xG map on Twitter). They were just efficient combined with Esbjerg practically giving away goals through major mistakes. AGF have some defensive issues, they are giving away too many chances – and conceding way too easily due to poor keeping. AGF will hope that key striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen will return to action here, he was on the bench in the entire last match, and my guess is that he will not be ready for full-time action just yet. Silkeborg started the season terrible, but have really got into form. They have just lost one of the last eight matches (against FC Copenhagen away so that is fair). They were a bit stronger than OB in last weekend’s match but failed to capitalize (1-1). Silkeborg have a good squad situation and they are able to consistently field the same line-up. They also have some offensive players in good form and the defence is starting to look stronger, although this is a clear weak point.

AGF are a bit stronger in my eyes, but Silkeborg are very consistent at the moment. I can’t see why a team winning once in seven matches versus a team that have only lost one match in the last eight matches deserve to be more than 50% favourites. I actually believe this to be value down to 1.85, so enough value to be the Tip of the Week. Whether Morten Duncan Rasmussen is fit to play can move the percentages a bit, but in any case good value in Silkeborg to take points here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.08 at SBOBet


Randers-FC Nordsjælland
Saturday 5/11 16.00
I think Randers are looking fairly solid at the moment. They have only conceded once in the last three games and their front line is one of the most dangerous in the league with two great strikers in Ishak and Pourie. Randers like to play physical matches, so the heavy pitches of this time of the year should favour them. Randers are ranked 4th in the league (behind the “big 3”) based on shots on target ratio, and I think this it is a fair valuation of their current strength. No important absences expected. FC Nordsjælland are a team with several technically gifted players. They tend to be significantly weaker away from home (artificial pitch) and a heavy pitch should not favour their style of play. They are team that also could struggle against a physical opponent, so this is not a good match-up on paper. FC Nordsjælland have been in decent form in the league recently, but they underperformed a bit in the weekend despite winning, while they were knocked out by a 2nd tier club in the cup this Wednesday. This was very disappointing as FC Nordsjælland fielded close to the strongest team, but it also comes to prove that FC Nordsjælland away from home at this time of the year is not the best. They do however have a good squad situation with some regulars starting to come back to full fitness (Petry and Mtiliga), while striker Ingvartsen has had a really good period.

Randers have beaten FC Nordsjælland in the last three home matches with a total score of 6-0. It is a match that really favours Randers, as it is expected to be cold and rain all day Saturday. Furthermore, I see FC Nordsjælland midweek defeat in the cup as a negative influence that could affect the young team negatively. Value down to 1.80.


Recommendation: 1 – 1.90 at Unibet

OB-Lyngby
Sunday 6/11 12.00
OB are on a terrible run. They were expected to be a top 6 team, but they have only won once in the last ten matches. Sure, they had some unlucky matches at the start of the season, but since they have not played particularly well. They got one point last weekend and they will hope to make that a turning point. The squad situation is also improving with OB having both of their important strikers, Jacobsen and Festersen, back from injuries. For this match, central midfielder Makrini returns from ban and he is an important player for the balance of the team. I think OB have potential, but it is just a matter of making it work well. I have them as the unluckiest team in the league, but this is mainly due to their unlucky start to the season – since they have started to perform poorly in general. Lyngby got down to earth after a deserved 2-0 loss to Randers. I don’t think the performance was so bad from Lyngby, but their luck just ran out. I have claimed them to be luckiest side in some time, but I actually think that they have started to improve their chance production and not just taking points through luck.

Lyngby are 13 points ahead of OB in the table. In reality, they should be way more even. I think OB will improve in the games ahead of us, but I don’t think it is enough to make them 42% favourite against a confident Lyngby-side.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.91 at Unibet

Horsens-FC Midtjylland
Sunday 6/11 14.00
Horsens were beaten by SønderjyskE in the last round, but they actually did better than I expected. I don’t think they were particularly worse than SønderjyskE, but they just failed to score on their big chances. This match looks a bit difficult for the promoted side. They have defensive issues as strong central defender Henry left the last match with a serious injury. Captain Nielsen who has played in the central midfield recently is the usual back-up for the central defence, but he is banned here. This means that Horsens will probably have to use someone unfamiliar to the position or a player completely out of form (Berthelsen). This is particularly concerning as it has been Horsens defensive foundation that have been essential in their excellent season so far. However, I want to add that Horsens have been quite lucky in many matches this season and I expect them to lose more matches in the rest of the season. FC Midtjylland are very instable. I also think they are poorly coached, and they lack consistency in the players selected. However, they have the second best squad in the league, so they do win most of their matches anyway. Their performance has been enough to rank them 3rd in the table and in my stats ranking. They have quality players all over the pitch and a good squad depth, so despite of injuries for Wikheim and Bruninho they should be able to line-up strongly.

Horsens have some concerning defensive absences here. I think they will find it difficult to get something from this. FC Midtjylland should win this, but they are often their own worst enemy. Price is too low for a recommendation.

Idea: 2 – 1.70 at Tipico

Viborg-Brøndby
Sunday 6/11 16.00
Viborg are in poor form. They have lost the last three league matches and just got knocked out of the cup on Wednesday after losing to a 2nd tier club after fielding the strongest line-up. Viborg will try to find some confidence in the fact that Brøndby are actually the last team they beat (almost 2 months ago). Viborg have struggled with injuries for key players. Lately talismanic striker Deble has been out, but rumours suggest that he could return here. This would be vital as I think Viborg are just too easy to read without his offensive flair and speed. Viborg has also had to make changes in midfield and defence where they are constantly hit by new injuries. The lack of consistency has surely affected the team and you could also question their squad depth. Brøndby have not lived their best period of the season lately, but despite of this they are without a loss in the last five league games. They welcomed back some players in the last match and they also looked a bit stronger. They will try to build on this for this match, and they should be able to field the strongest side here. I have Brøndby as the 2nd best team in the league this season, and despite their recent dip in performance, I still have them ranked highly.

Viborg have won the last two matches against Brøndby, and although Viborg did well in those matches, I would not put too much into it, as Viborg is in a poor state at the moment and not able to field the strongest eleven. I expect Brøndby to win this, but the uncertainty regarding the return of Deble makes it an idea pick. If Deble is out, I think it is fine value though.

Idea: 2 – 1.75 at Tipico

FC Copenhagen-SønderjyskE
Sunday 6/11 18.00
FC Copenhagen have been so strong this season. They are yet to lose a match in the league and they have only lost one Champions League match away to Leicester. I am certain that they will go on to win the Danish league this season. They are 14-1-0 at home in the league in 2016 and they have won nine of these matches with two goals or more (six out seven this season). FC Copenhagen might rotate a bit after playing Champions League on Wednesday, but this should not be a big problem due to an impressive squad depth and no injury concerns. Nevertheless, I think they have looked a bit unfocused in the matches after Champions League rounds during this season. Central midfielder Kvist is out due to ban. SønderjyskE have won five out of the last six league games and seem to be in form after a poor start to the season. They have a strong defence and are good at countering. However, this is set to be a very difficult match for them due to a number of absences. Vital defensive midfielder Drachmann and strong central midfielder Madsen are out with bans, while quality winger Kroon and his alternative Kløve are expected to be out with injuries. This leaves SønderjyskE’s central midfield very lightweight, and I can’t see how they can solve the issues in the central midfield in a good way with the alternatives at hand.

I think FC Copenhagen will win this comfortably, but I don’t see them smashing SønderjyskE. They arrive from a tough Champions League match, the pitch is poor and they are strong at the back. All three things favour a low scoring match, so that is a good idea for the match. I think FC Copenhagen will continue working hard until they have a two-goal lead, so I still think a handicap win could be a good choice. And yes, if I had to pick the correct score it would be 2-0.  

Ideas: Under 3 goals – 1.77 at Pinnacle

1 (AH -1.5) – 1.96 at Unibet