10. dec. 2013

Stats review: Week 18 update


We start with the alternative Superliga tables before we go to our other stories of the week, which will be the equality of the league and a look on the strongest home/away sides.

Updated alternative tables:
We use the following measures:

TSR, Total Shots Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots in their matches. This is defined as:
TSR=Total shots by team/Total shots by team and opponent

SoTR, Shots on Target Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots on target in their matches. This is defined as:
SoTR=Total shots on target by team/Total shots on target by team and opponent

PDO, is a measure from hockey, that has been applied to football. Our use of it is to evaluate how lucky/unlucky a team has been during the season. PDO is defined as:
PDO=1000x(Saving%+Scoring%).

The table is sorted by SoTR, which is our favourite indicator for quality.


For detailed reviews and tables from previous weeks – click here.

Comments:
The SoTR metric is a nice measure for true quality of a team (read this if you want more explanation). Therefore we would like to call it a power ranking of the league.

FC Copenhagen are still number one on our ranking in spite of their poor match against FC Vestsjælland. Their SoTR and TSR above 60% are impressive though and they should be the prime contender to the championship title along with FC Midtjylland. FC Midtjylland are third on our ranking and the SoTR increased from last week after the crushing of AGF. FC Midtjylland do not look as strong as FC Copenhagen, but they have compensated by producing a higher defensive/offensive efficiency (measured by their PDO). This “over performance” in efficiency is not likely to continue and in that case FC Midtjylland’s first place is likely to get in jeopardy. The same goes for AaB. They won deservedly against Viborg (5-0), but they were highly efficient (scoring five goals on seven attempts on target). They are in 5th place on our power ranking (SoTR), but 2nd position on our luck ranking (PDO). The media tend to get carried away by their recent performance; we believe that AaB should be satisfied if they finish with a bronze medal.

Esbjerg and Brøndby are two underachievers. Based on their ability to dominate the matches, Esbjerg and Brøndby should both be near the front. But poor saving for Esbjerg and poor finishing from Brøndby are the main reasons for the lack of success. Based on our review of Esbjerg keeper, Rønnow, last week, it could seem like Esbjerg are fundamentally underperforming because of his obvious weakness on set pieces. Therefore you should not expect Esbjerg’s PDO to reach 1000 (average) unless Esbjerg make a change in the winter break. For Brøndby, the poor finishing could to some degree be blamed on striker Quincy Antipas, who has been very inefficient. The question is whether Antipas has been unlucky or just a bad finisher? Our guess is a combination, and then we should expect Brøndby to have more “luck” in the spring.

FC Nordsjælland are a team on the rise. If their PDO increases they should finish in top 6. OB, FC Vestsjælland and Randers should face a mediocre season, but if they continue their effort and the luck effect is fairly distributed, relegation should not be a subject.

The main relegation candidates seem to be AGF, SønderjyskE and Viborg.  AGF have been very volatile this autumn, but mostly bad. After finishing the last two matches with a goal score of 1-7, they also moved towards the bottom in our table. Measured on ability to dominate matches in terms of chances they should go down. AGF have however already made deals for some quality players, wherefore their true quality might change over the winter. SønderjyskE have passed AGF on our power ranking. They have looked better in the last three matches of the season and their PDO (luck) has increased as well. If the PDO continues its rise towards 1000, SønderjyskE should have a considerable chance for survival. Viborg are by far the weakest team in our opinion. We have claimed this for some time and results are starting to prove it. In five games, they have only gained one point. The relegation line is getting close. Only their ridiculous PDO have kept them in the middle of the table. This is mainly due to the efficiency of top scorer Thomas Dalgaard, but we have seen the luck move in a different direction lately (although mostly affecting the saving percentage). Over the last three matches we have seen the difference in PDO between Viborg and SønderjyskE narrowing with 72 points. This just proves our claim that PDO is a (mostly) random luck indicator that moves towards 1000 over time.

Hypothesis 1: The Superliga 2013/2014 is more equal than usually

Admitted, we have had a poor autumn with our bets. Naturally you will start to look for explanations. One of our thoughts was that the league is more difficult to predict this year, since teams are getting more equal. We looked at the stats and got this:


 
So we summed up the last eight seasons at the winter break. Winter break normally occurs after 17 to 20 matches. The draw percentage has not been higher than this season. More than 30% is rarely seen (well, not in the previous seven years) and a partial explanation for our poor autumn, since we rarely predict draws.

No matter if we look at the difference between first and last or third and tenth, it is also smaller than in the previous years. This is also a solid argument for the increase in spectators this autumn: every team has plenty to fight for.

The last measure is the number of teams within five points of the relegation line (including the two underneath). This year 8 (!) teams out of 12 are in genuine danger of relegation. This is also a new record in recent years.

Conlusion: On all measures, this year is the most equal in our sample of eight years. This is naturally splendid for entertainment value, but also signalling that betting on the Superliga this year is not just business as usual.

Hypothesis 2: Are AaB the best home team and FC Midtjylland the best away team?
If you base it on points, then yes! AaB lead the home table, while FC Midtjylland lead the away table. But what if we look at the team’s ability to dominate home or away matches. Let us first look at home matches:

 
Based on our favourite metric, the Shots on Target Ratio (SoTR), Esbjerg are actually the most dominant home team. They tend to have almost 2/3 of all shots on target in their home matches. They only get 1.33 points per game, which is quite poor based on their dominance. AaB are actually only 4th based on this statistic (but still quite dominant in their home matches). What is interesting is that home teams not only have dominance in SoTR (52.72%) as expected, but also in PDO (1032). PDO were supposed to be a luck indicator, but this illustrates that their might be an efficiency effect of playing at home.

If we look at the away table:

 
A few things are remarkable in this table. FC Copenhagen and Brøndby are relatively better away than at home, when it comes to SoTR. FC Copenhagen and Brøndby are the two teams with the strongest home support (based on the objective measure: number of spectators) so you should expect them to be relatively strong at home instead (some might argue that they have the best away support as well). The table brings bad news for fans of SønderjyskE and OB since their teams are actually more dominant when playing away. We have also found the main source of Viborg’s weakness: they are by far the worst team when playing away.

Conclusion: Based on ability to dominate matches, which over time should be highly correlated with winning percentage, AaB are not the best home team and FC Midtjylland not the best away team. We should instead expect Esbjerg and FC Copenhagen to advance in the respective tables (ceteris paribus).

Efficiency table
We round off with the efficiency table, where AaB advanced significantly at the expense of Viborg. It is also worth noticing that there are only two teams left in the good quadrant (upper right). It is AaB and FC Midtjylland, number 1 and 2 – the lucky/efficient ones. Number 10, 11 and 12 (FC Vestsjælland, Esbjerg and SønderjyskE) are left in the bad quadrant. This highlights the importance of efficiency/luck if you want to do well in the league. At least over this short time interval.


Week 18 round-up

The Superliga is over for 2013. It is time for the last round-up in almost three months. For us it was a fine weekend. We had surplus on our recommendations and (finally) our #Twitbets. Unfortunately heavy rain and a poor pitch in Randers (just selected as the poorest grass pitch in the league) made our Tip of the Week bet on Over 2.5 goals worthless (ended 1-0). If we are to sum up how 2013 has been for us, it is naturally disappointment. We know that we can make a profit over a longer time period, so for us to start this poorly is not good for business. We just have to keep going and hopefully this negative performance will be forgotten as we reach summer 2014. On the bright side, our recommendations are profitable over the 12 rounds we have been online. We just need the Tip of the Week to get going!

Here the totals:
To understand the tabels:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

4. dec. 2013

FC Nordsjælland-OB

Friday 6/12 18.30
FC Nordsjælland (10th) dominated against Randers last week but still only managed to draw. Now it is the last match of the year and OB (5th) are the guests. One ting that may change the draw to a win this time is the striker Morten Nordstrand who ought to be back at 100%. The likely loss of defenders Michael Jakobsen and Pascal Gregor is important but OB’s strikers are not the most terrifying duo in the league even though they have scored more than usually in the last few weeks. FC Nordsjælland’s home statistics are impressive. Of the 20 points they have 16 have been collected at home. OB played really well in the last match against AGF. It was almost as if the 4-1 full time result was too small a win. They will try to bring along this energy when they visit FC Nordsjælland. Defender Anders Møller Christensen is still injured and will not be playing this week. At the other end of the pitch striker Mustafa Abdellaoue has started scoring and he capped it off with a two-goal performance last week.

FC Nordsjælland are small favourites but the way OB played last week was impressive. If they can play just nearly as well as they did last week they could surprise the home team. The value of the odds is in OB’s favour so a bet on the away team could be an idea. Insure against the draw.


Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 2.75 Bet365

SønderjyskE-Brøndby

Sunday 9/12 19.00
The relegations contenders, SønderjyskE (12th), are not so isolated at the bottom as they were two rounds ago after a win against Esbjerg and a draw in the latest match against Viborg. Their SoTR in the last two games is 56% so things might be starting to get better. Striker Tommy Bechmann will soon be fit and he is a focal point for the offence. After nine matches unbeaten, Brøndby (4th) were unlucky that they were to meet FC Copenhagen at the wrong time (ton of injuries hit them before the match). In the last couple of matches it has been evident that striker Simon Makienok is the one that the offence has been build for and with him still injured they have to rely on Kenneth Zohore. It is clear that he does not posses the same quality as Makienok. But on Sunday Zohore will be up against the veteran defender Niels Lodberg and with Zohore’s pace and strength this is a clear mismatch and Zohore should get some opportunities to get an advantage against the weaker and slower Lodberg. None of the teams have suspensions. Midfielders Thomas Kahlenberg and Christian Nørgaard are both back and will be expected to be 100% ready. Defenders Khalid Boulahrouz and Martin Albrechtsen are injured and this will weaken the defence.

We think that Brøndby offence will compensate for the injuries in the defence and we believe that they possess quality to score more goals than SønderjyskE.

Idea: 2 – 2.00 Betfair

FC Copenhagen-FC Vestsjælland


Saturday 8/12 17.00
FC Copenhagen (3rd) are a team on the rise. We believe they are the strongest team in the league right now. They proved it with their secure win at Brøndby (3-1), where they simply were on another level than their opponents. Unfortunately for FC Copenhagen, their best player by a mile this season, attacker/midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen left the match with an injury and we are almost certain that he will not be a part of this match. Jørgensen has had a talismanic effect on FC Copenhagen. In the matches he has played FC Copenhagen have won six, drawed six and lost only one. In the four matches he has been absent they have one win and three losses! It has to be mentioned that the three losses were under former coach, Ariel Jacobs, but the importance of Jørgensen is still huge. He has scored six goals and made five assists this autumn. FC Copenhagen are also without less important midfielder Daniel Braaten. FC Vestsjælland (8th) will stay up. Or at least we think they will. They have an average team, capable of giving a good fight to any team in the league, and with all their veterans they rarely get a beating. Last weekend they were a bit unlucky against league leaders FC Midtjylland and lost due to an own goal (0-1). They were the better team; had most possession and created more chances. They will benefit from the return of defender Lasse Nielsen. The last time the two teams met in Parken it ended 1-1.

Without Nicolai Jørgensen FC Copenhagen look more like an ordinary team. Two weekends ago the bookies offered better odds for a FC Copenhagen victory at home against a worse team, Viborg. With a weaker squad this time, we see no value in the home win, although it is naturally the most probably outcome. Our ideas would be to bet either on few goals or on the away team (safest with handicap).

Ideas: 2 (AH +1.5) – 1.83 Betfair
Under 2.5 goals – 2.34 Betfair

AaB-Viborg


Monday 10/12 19.00
AaB (2nd) have had a fine autumn: in 2nd place and still alive in the cup was more than the northerners could dare hope for. They have done it with class and even though FC Copenhagen are about to pass them, they still have a great chance of finishing in a top 3 position. Quite remarkable for a club that due to financial difficulties had to sell their star, striker Helenius, to Aston Villa in the summer window. AaB have not lost in five matches in a row. Last weekend they were struggling a lot against Esbjerg (2-2), but they were without several important players. Midfielder Risgård, keeper Nicolai Larsen and defender Lasse Nielsen should all return for this match. Only left back Jakob Ahlmann is doubtful. Viborg (7th) are in a remarkable 7th position. A crazy efficiency is the only good argument for their success, since their ability to dominate matches in terms of creating scoring opportunities is the league’s worst. While Viborg’s scoring efficiency is still the league’s absolute best (38.89% - league average: 28.03%), their saving efficiency has moved towards a more average standard (74.56% - league average: 72.06%). And the result is that Viborg are on a cold streak with only one point in the last four matches. Viborg should have a full squad to choose from, and although both league top scorer Thomas Dalgaard and midfielder Aleksandar Stankov left the last match with smaller injuries, we expect them to play on Monday. The last time the two met, the match ended 3-1 to AaB. AaB dominated from start to finish and could have won even bigger (shooting stats: 23-8).

We have several times pointed out that Viborg is the luckiest team in the Superliga and that their success is likely to be short-lived. We have seen indications of this recently and against an AaB team with strong individuals like Jönsson and Kusk they should get into trouble (they did last time). We pick AaB to win by two or more. If AaB win with only one we get our money back.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -1) – 2.02 Bet365

FC Midtjylland-AGF


Sunday 9/12 17.00
FC Midtjylland (1st) did not exactly impress last round at FC Vestsjælland, but took the three points anyway from an own goal of Bozga. FC Midtjylland are clearly not as vicious as in the first matches of the season, but they have been struggling with inconsistency due to many of injuries. Compared to last weekend, the situation looks a bit better with the return of defensive midfielder Izunna and offensive midfielder Petter Andersson from suspension. Both are strong players that will add a lot of quality to the FC Midtjylland midfield. FC Midtjylland will however be without some strong players like central defender Erik Sviatchenko, offensive midfielder Jeppe Curth and probably also winger Rilwan Hassan. FC Midtjylland should primarily focus on their left wing, where the combination of left back Juelsgaard and winger Igboun should have a favourable match-up (against an AGF John Doe and Juel Andersen). AGF (6th) were humiliated last weekend in Odense (4-1), where nothing worked for them. It has been like that for a few matches and with the relegation line just three points below, the situation is far from under control. Over the last five matches AGF have the league’s worst SoTR at 38.71% (they are being outplayed!). When we look into the numbers the main reason is that AGF give away too many chances. In the last match the absence of their best central defender Kure and first keeper Rasmussen magnified the effect. Rasmussen is not fit for this match, his replacement Ousager is not at the same level (and poor keeping allowed the first goal against OB). Kure is doubtful (not called up for cup match). AGF will be playing a tough cup quarterfinal on Thursday against AaB and if this match goes for 120 minutes, AGF could face some physical strains Sunday.

Although FC Midtjylland are not in top form, we believe that they possess the quality to overcome a struggling AGF team. 1.92 for a home win is a fine offer and we take it.

Recommendation: 1 – 1.92 Betfair
Remember that you can use our link to get a 350 DKK free bet (and maybe use it on this match).

Randers-Esbjerg


Sunday 9/12 14.00
Randers (9th) are not exactly the most in-form team in the league. With only one win in the last eight matches, Randers are dangerously near the relegation zone. Their performances on the pitch have been very volatile, usually they play one good match followed by a poor. Last weekend they played a very poor match in FC Nordsjælland and were lucky to return to eastern Jutland with one point (1-1). FC Nordsjælland won the shooting statistic with 22-8, but it is not unusual for Randers to have problems at FC Nordsjælland (they have never won there). But if our perception of Randers’ performance pattern holds true, a good match should be in store by the home team. Randers will be without their central defender Mads Fenger along with winger Jonas Kamper. Both are important players and the likely replacements Chris Sørensen and Victor Lundberg are not of same quality. Randers will be in severe problems if left back Adama Tamboura is not fit for this match. He was absent last weekend due to a minor foot injury and if absent here too, midfielder Alexander Fischer will have to cover the position. Not good since left back is always a fiercely attacked position when playing against the Ankersen brothers of Esbjerg. Esbjerg (11th) made a great comeback against AaB last round. Despite being down 0-2 the match ended 2-2 and afterwards Esbjerg could even feel hard done by not winning the match. The shooting statistic said 23-7 and lack of efficiency has really been a huge problem in Esbjerg lately. Over the last five matches Esbjerg’s SoTR are the league’s second highest (61.22%) despite Esbjerg only gained 2 points in these matches.  However some offensive optimism must have grown after two goals in the last match and two goals last midweek against Standard Liege. Esbjerg are also close to their preferred eleven with only central midfielder Lekven injured. He is vital, no doubt about it, but Esbjerg have been without him for so many matches, that they must be able to cope with it by now. Central defender Kian Hansen is still suspended and this is a weakening of the defence. Randers are offering free entrance, so a good atmosphere should be expected for the last match of the year.

Based on statistics and recent performances we believe Esbjerg are the team with momentum. Both teams have some defensive issues and we notice that the last three league matches between the two have ended with three goals or more. We would at least give this a 50% chance of occurring again on Sunday and we therefore spot great value in an over bet. Although we fear Esbjerg’s Rønnow might be out to prove that he is not the worst shot stopper in the league as we claimed in our review. If we were to pick a winner we would go for Esbjerg with money back in case of a draw.

Tip of the Week: Over 2.5 goals – 2.12 Betfair
Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 2.02 Unibet
 Remember that you can use our link to get a 350 DKK free bet (and maybe use it on this match). 

3. dec. 2013

Stats review: Week 17 update


We start with the alternative Superliga tables before we go to our other story of the week, which will be about the quality of the goalkeepers.

Updated alternative tables:
We use the following measures:

TSR, Total Shots Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots in their matches. This is defined as:
TSR=Total shots by team/Total shots by team and opponent

SoTR, Shots on Target Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots on target in their matches. This is defined as:
SoTR=Total shots on target by team/Total shots on target by team and opponent

PDO, is a measure from hockey, that has been applied to football. Our use of it is to evaluate how lucky/unlucky a team has been during the season. PDO is defined as:
PDO=1000x(Saving%+Scoring%).

The table is sorted by SoTR, which is our favourite indicator for quality.

For detailed reviews and tables from previous weeks – click here.

Comments:
Frontrunners FC Midtjylland and AaB should be scared, because a group of hungry lions (FC Copenhagen) are chasing them. The reigning champions are the best by some margin on both vital measures of quality: TSR and SoTR. The only reason that you still find FC Midtjylland and AaB ahead is because of their better efficiency, highlighted by a PDO of more than 1050, which indicates that FC Midtjylland and AaB have had their fair share of luck. Some might argue it was the case in this weekend too, where both escaped with points despite being weaker than their opponents. Esbjerg are the new number two on the SoTR list, but a terrible saving percentage leaves Esbjerg at the bottom of actual table. Esbjerg should have room for improvement in the table; at least their chance creating abilities indicate so. FC Nordsjælland are a team on the rise and should have won this weekend against Randers (shots on target score line ended: 8-2). AGF had a lousy game against OB, while SønderjyskE improved since they met poor Viborg. SoTR now indicates that if SønderjyskE get some of the luck they have been lacking so far, AGF should be worried about relegation. Viborg should do all that they can to secure top scorer Thomas Dalgaard on a long-term deal. Without his efficiency Viborg would have been far below the relegation line and not in 7th position. We still believe that Viborg will drop once their luck/efficiency does as well; they are simply the weakest team in the league based on our stats.

Question: How much are the keepers to blame for a poor position?
We have claimed that the PDO was mainly a luck indicator. No club should be able to tally significantly more or less than a PDO 1000 over a longer period. We have however admitted that smaller differences can occur simply based on the quality of the strikers and the keepers. We wanted to test this, so we looked at the keepers. Is their any difference between the keepers with high saving percentage and low saving percentage, when it comes to the goals they let in? Although the sample is too small to draw strong inference, we decided to give at a go anyway.

We picked out the six goalkeepers that have played all seventeen matches this season. At the same time these goalkeepers are ranked pretty dispersed based on saving percentage with two from the top (Lössl, Hradecky), two from the middle (Peskovic, Mikkelsen) and two from the bottom (Skender, Rønnow). We have looked at every goal conceded this season and placed it into one of four groups:
Type 1: A big mistake – the goal is entirely to blame on the keeper
Type 2: Most keepers would have saved the shot
Type 3: A fantastic save could have stopped the shot
Type 4: Not even Peter Schmeichel in his heyday would have saved it

It must be admitted that these assessments are subjective and others are likely to evaluate the goals differently, so have this in mind. It could be fun to have a (former) professional goalkeeper evaluate the goals, but you have to settle with us this time.

Here are the results for each keeper. In parenthesis is the type of goal’s share of the total amount of goals. The cost of goals compared to Lössl is how many goals a mistake percentage (type 1 or 2 goals) like Lössl’s would have deducted from the total goals allowed.

Jonas Lössl, FC Midtjylland
Total saving percentage: 77.78% (rank: 1st)
Total goals allowed: 16
Type 1 goals allowed: 1 (6.25%)
Type 2 goals allowed: 1 (6.25%)
Type 3 goals allowed: 8 (50%)
Type 4 goals allowed: 6 (37.50%)
Type 1 or 2 percentage: 13%

Lukas Hradecky, Brøndby
Total saving percentage: 75.58% (rank: 3rd)
Total goals allowed: 21
Type 1 goals allowed: 1 (4.76%)
Type 2 goals allowed: 4 (19.05%)
Type 3 goals allowed: 11 (52.38%)
Type 4 goals allowed: 5(23.81%)
Type 1 or 2 percentage: 23.81%
Cost of goals compared to Lössl: 2

Michal Peskovic, Viborg
Total saving percentage: 74.56% (rank: 5th)
Total goals allowed: 29
Type 1 goals allowed: 0 (0%)
Type 2 goals allowed: 5 (17.24%)
Type 3 goals allowed: 17 (58.62%)
Type 4 goals allowed: 7(24.14%)
Type 1 or 2 percentage: 17.24%
Cost of goals compared to Lössl: 1

Thomas Mikkelsen, FC Vestsjælland
Total saving percentage: 71.59% (rank: 7th)
Total goals allowed: 25
Type 1 goals allowed: 0 (0%)
Type 2 goals allowed: 4 (16%)
Type 3 goals allowed: 11 (44%)
Type 4 goals allowed: 10(40%)
Type 1 or 2 percentage: 16%
Cost of goals compared to Lössl: 1

Marin Skender, SønderjyskE
Total saving percentage: 66.67% (rank: 11th)
Total goals allowed: 33
Type 1 goals allowed: 3 (9.09%)
Type 2 goals allowed: 5 (15.15%)
Type 3 goals allowed: 14 (42.43%)
Type 4 goals allowed: 11(33.33%)
Type 1 or 2 percentage: 24.24%
Cost of goals compared to Lössl: 4

Frederik Rønnow, Esbjerg
Total saving percentage: 64.00% (rank: 12th)
Total goals allowed: 27
Type 1 goals allowed: 1 (3.70%)
Type 2 goals allowed: 8 (29.63%)
Type 3 goals allowed: 11 (40.74%)
Type 4 goals allowed: 7(25.93%)
Type 1 or 2 percentage: 33.33%
Cost of goals compared to Lössl: 5

Lössl has done really well this autumn. In earlier seasons he has been criticized for poor keeping, but with only two goals allowed that can be labelled as poor keeping, he is a big reason for the success of FC Midtjylland. His total saving percentage of almost 78% is nearly 6% higher than the league average (72.06%). Although Lössl deserves heaps of praise, we would expect the PDO magic to work at some point and drag him closer to the average. If not, Lössl could be bound for bigger clubs outside Denmark.

Hradecky is the next guy in line. His mistake percentage (we define that as type 1 or 2 goals allowed) is 23.81%, which is more than 10% higher than Lössl’s (13%). Hradecky did not make the best introduction in Brøndby, where he committed several mistakes. In recent matches he has improved a lot though. If we subtract the two additional goals that mistakes by Hradecky has cost compared to Lössl, Hradecky ends up with a saving percentage of 77.91%, which is just as good as Lössl. An indication that the quality difference between Hradecky and Lössl is small.

Next up are Peskovic and Mikkelsen. Both have been doing a good job for their promoted clubs, Viborg and FC Vestsjælland, illustrated by the fact that none of them have made a big mistake (type 1). Compared to Lössl they have both let in a poor keeping goal too much and if you adjust for this, their saving percentages would have been 75.44% for Peskovic and 72.73% for Mikkelsen. So neither of them is as good as Lössl and Hradecky, when it comes to overall goalkeeping (but remember: small sample).

We go to the bottom, where SønderjyskE and Esbjerg are considerably poorer than the rest of the league when it comes to saving percentage. We first focus on Skender, the Croat, who got a lot of credit for his performance last season. His performance this season has not been particularly inspiring with three type 1 mistakes (most of the six goalkeepers in this analysis). We believe that Skender has allowed four goals too much compared to Lössl’s mistake percentage, which would have moved SønderjyskE from a goal difference of -17 to -13. A difference that probably would have been worth some points, although SønderjyskE’s scoring percentage and general SoTR are too poor to move them away from the bottom. Skender would have had, adjusted for the additional mistakes, a saving percentage of 70.71%. It is below the league average, so clearly not very impressive.

At last we go to Esbjerg. Esbjerg loaned youngster Frederik Rønnow for a season in Horsens, where he had been highly appreciated. He has been pointed out as a future keeper for the Danish national team, wherefore his poor saving percentage is surprising and concerning. The numbers from our research does not put him in better light. We record a mistake percentage of 33.33%, which compared to Lössl has had a cost of five goals. With these goals Esbjerg would have gone from a goal difference of +2 to +7 and probably moved into top six. It is especially Rønnow’s poor aerial ability that makes his record so appalling. If we adjust Rønnow’s saving percentage for additional mistakes compared to Lössl, it goes from 64% to 70.67%. It is a big improvement, but the level is still poor.

Although we have not analysed the keepers from the remaining six clubs we highly doubt that we will find poorer adjusted saving percentages than the ones for Skender and Rønnow. SønderjyskE and Esbjerg should strongly consider changing their goalkeeper in the winter transfer window in order to emerge from the relegation pit

With respect to the PDO, it could seem like there is a difference between a good and a bad keeper of around 7% in saving percentage (simply in form of more type 1 and 2 mistakes). A 7% difference in saving percentage is the same as a difference of 70 in PDO. Our conclusion is that even though the PDO should move towards 1000 points, a difference of up to 70 points could be persistent. And this is only for the keepers, an effect are likely to be observable for the strikers as well. But remember: small sample! It could be that the higher saving percentage of some keepers are due to weaker shots allowed by the defense, in this case the entire blame should not be put on the keeper, despite his weak saving percentage. We can however pick out Rønnow as the keeper that has performed the weakest this autumn, simply because he has the highest allowance of type 1 and 2 goals. These goals cannot be blamed on poor defending!

Efficiency table
Is there any better way to end this than with a look at the efficiency table?


Week 17 round-up

A decent round for us. We lacked a little more luck. Viborg dropped their lead twice, AaB dropped a 2-0 lead, while FC Nordsjællland were also in the lead and dominated the match against Randers, but Randers were cruel and equalized. In total our recommendations and ideas where good with a nice profit to follow. For our Tip of the Week, we had Brøndby to win, but even though Brøndby took the lead, it was never going to happen. FC Copenhagen were simply better. Unfortunately for our bet, late incidents wiped out the value in Brøndby. The defensive cornerstone Boulahrouz got injured in the warm-up, while FC Copenhagen surprisingly got their top scorer Vetokele ready for the match. Boulahrouz was replaced by Almebäck, who had a terrible game and could easily be blamed for two of the goals. Vetokele scored twice, so the late changes were really vital and cruel to our bet. Too bad because we were getting back on track with our Tip of the Week. Something that is definitely not on track is our #Twitbets. Another two bets failed this time, even though Ankersen had several big chances. Here are the numbers:
To understand the tabels:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.