26. sep. 2013

OB-FC Midtjylland


Sunday 29/9 19.00
Who is going to stop FC Midtjylland (1st)? The top team are still unbeaten this season and have the strongest defence. They do not have any suspensions and they even have midfielder Izunna Uzochukwu back. So things are getting better for the top team. For OB (10th) on the other hand things are not as bright after three league losses in a row. Two starters in midfielder, Conor O’Brien and Danish international Rasmus Falk, are out with suspensions. The loss of Falk is especially a hard blow. The two-man army of Falk and midfielder Emil Larsen are the only players who can create chances. The continued use of striker Morten Skoubo is still a mystery for us here at SuperligaBets. He is not scoring nor is he creating chances. Everything he does is slow and stops the flow of the game and is not at a Superliga level. With his age in mind he might just be over the hill. But why coach Troels Bech uses Skoubo is still beyond us.

Both teams played in the cup tournament midweek and OB used the first team to get a win against FC Svendborg from 2nd division. It was a needed win in order to boost the morale. FC Midtjylland also got a win but used the reserves and won against FC Djursland from 2nd division. With fit players and the return of midfielder Izunna an away win is plausible and also contains value.

Recommendation:  2 - 2.20 Mermaidbet

UPDATE: Winger Rilwan Hassan has been called up for Midtjylland. He was a key player last season and this could be his first match this season. It is however doubtful that he will get more pitch-time than 15 minutes, but important news for Midtjylland that have had problems with their squad depth. OB are without their first keeper Christiansen, but back-up Toppel is almost as good, so no huge loss. We stick to our away win recommendation.

Esbjerg-SønderjyskE


Sunday 29/9 14.00
Esbjerg fB (2nd) were impressive in the first half against FC Vestsjælland and they scored three goals against the top defensive team in the league. Now they are hosting another top defence (twelve conceded in nine games), SønderjyskE (10th). Both teams played in the cup tournament during the week but with different outcome. SønderjyskE played with the first team but lost to a 1st division team. Only striker Tommy Bechmann and captain Henrik Hansen were held out. Esbjerg played a non-divisional team and was able to rest a lot of first team players. This could have an impact in this game. Not to mention a Esbjerg team with home field advantage looks like a strong candidate for a win in this match. Esbjerg have a strong support with their current run in the league and Europe. SønderjyskE will be without their suspended winger Daniel Christensen.

After nine games SønderjyskE have only scored nine goals and it is hard to say who has the quality to be a solid goal scorer. Esbjerg on the other hand are the most scoring team in the league.

Idea: 1 - 1.98 Betfair

AaB-AGF


Sunday 29/9 14.00
Both clubs have made an attempt to promote the match as “the battle of Jutland”. Yes, it is a game between the region’s two biggest cities, but if you measure it on recent performances on the football pitch you could easily argue that they are overselling it. Nevertheless, you should expect an intense match between two teams that are having a form dip. AaB (3rd) lost in Randers last weekend in a match, where they were weak at keeping possession. Way to often the ball was played to the front line where either Anders Jacobsen or Søren Frederiksen lost it. New striker Rasmus Jønsson might be a better solution but is he fit for it? AaB have a strong midfield and it was nice to see that their latest midfield talent Nicolaj Thomsen score his first career senior goal in their midweek win in the cup (2-1 vs. Køge). AGF (6th) have lost two home games in a row (vs. Viborg and Brøndby). Especially against Brøndby they failed to dominate the match. It was an uninspiring performance, where none of the key players hit their normal standard. Some of the players have not been playing well for some time, but these players seem to continue to get starting appearances while coach Sørensen makes swaps in surprising positions, like benching their only in-form striker, Søren Larsen. AGF hardly created any chances in the recent two league matches and it would be natural to be concerned. Defensively things are not to good either. Right back Alexander Juel Andersen is injured and the normal back alternative Eckersley is injured. We expect Dominic Oduro to take this position and we expect Thomsen to give him a good challenge.

This will be a tough battle for dominance in the midfield, the area where both teams are the strongest. We expect AaB to be in the best position to do so, but the odds just above 2.00 for a home win are not really that interesting value-wise.  Instead we would rather make a bet on the number of goals. None of the teams have been very good at creating chances recently and if this tendency continues we might see a low score line (1-0, 1-1 or so). We keep this as an idea.

Idea: Under 2,5 goals – 2,20 Betfair

UPDATE: AaB without experienced midfielder Würtz. He will probably be replaced by either Augustinussen or Wichmann, which is a minor weakening of the home side. AaB should still stand good chances of winning.

Brøndby-FC Copenhagen


Saturday 28/9 16.00
Number 9 against number 11. Well, we guess no one expected this round 10 match to be a battle in the bottom when the league kicked off. Lately things have been improving for both teams so we should expect a match between two confident teams in front of a full stadium. Brøndby (11th) have two wins in a row. The wins have been “big” in the sense that they were fully deserved and showed that the new Brøndby got potential. Club favourite, the midfielder Thomas Kahlenberg, who is beginning to show his superior abilities with the ball, leads the new Brøndby. Winger Szymanowski looks like a signing with potential with two assists last weekend. Despite of this it is obvious that he needs to improve his decision-making; he has too many shots from difficult angles. Now Brøndby’s only concern is their defence that still looks like bottom-of-Superliga-quality, but this might change if rumours of a Dutch national are true (Boulahrouz). For this match Brøndby could be without several key players. Of them Kahlenberg and striker Makienok are the most doubtful and without the two of them, the home side’s chances looks grim. FC Copenhagen (9th) have not lost in seven matches and even though they are not exactly destroying opponents things definitely look better under new coach Solbakken. The players look more motivated under him and they are not quitting just because they are behind. This has led to late comebacks in their last two Superliga matches (vs. OB and Esbjerg). FC Copenhagen have some concerns defensively where they will be without Stadsgaard and Sigurdsson. It will be interesting to see how good the chemistry between the two new signings, Mellberg and Margreitter, is, since they are very likely to start in the central defence together. Good news for Copenhagen is the return of first keeper Wiland.

The injury situation of Brøndby is crucial. If they have a fully fit team we believe they stand of good chance of getting a win against their archrival. We expect the key players to play since we believe that Brøndby are just trying to confuse Copenhagen, so they do not know what to expect. We cannot know this for sure, so we decide to keep a Brøndby win as a betting idea only. Look for more updates.

Idea: 1 – 3.45 Betfair

UPDATE: Brøndby have called up all the questionable players in a 20-man squad for the match (18 can be used). With the large call up it could seem like they are still in doubt concerning a few players. Especially Makienok is very doubtful, but Brøndby have a decent (not perfect) cover in Zohore, who is the same type of player. FC Copenhagen are as expected without two central defenders, but goalkeeper Wiland returns. We stick to our idea: Brøndby should stand a good chance of getting the three points today.

Viborg-FC Vestsjælland


Friday 27/9 18.30
Viborg (4th) saved two attempts on the goal line in order to keep rivals FC Midtjylland away from winning last weekend (0-0). Viborg played a decent match and they have actually done so the entire season with the loss against FC Copenhagen (1-4) as the only exception.  Since that match captain and defender Rask have returned which is an important addition. Viborg will be without two of their young regulars, defender Egeris and midfielder Lerager, but they should have fine alternatives in the squad. FC Vestsjælland (5th) missed out on the 2nd place with a disappointing loss to Esbjerg (1-3). This was the newcomer’s worst match of the season so far. Without this match in mind, they have left a good impression as a disciplined and physical team. In many ways the two clubs are quite similar: they have the same amount of points, both just promoted, focus on strong defence and set-pieces. The main difference is found in the routine where Vestsjælland can bolster a squad that has more Superliga experience and this could be crucial.

Two equal teams battle it out on Friday night. Both were deemed relegation favourites when the season started and even though both teams have impressed, the relegation line is not far away (4 points). We regard this match as a six-pointer, where we find that experience might be decisive. A draw could be satisfying for both, so we make this bet as a draw no bet (DNB).

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) 2,20 Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-Randers


Monday 30/9 19.00
Just as we thought FC Nordsjælland (12th) were on the way back on track they were defeated 2-0 by a mediocre SønderjyskE. It was not an unfair result; their offense created nothing and their defence was too slow. The concern of coach Hjulmand was highly visible in his decisions for their midweek cup match against a lower division club. Here, he fielded the strongest possible team and they won 2-0 without impressing. For this match Nordsjælland will be without the suspended midfielder Anders Christiansen and striker Morten Nordstrand (along with a long list of long-term injured players). Without them Nordsjælland lose aggression and scoring ability, both skills are much needed in their current situation. They will have to rely on winger Joshua John and the returning midfielder Søren Christensen. Randers (7th) had been suffering for some time, but their win against AaB last weekend could mark a change. Randers were the better team and managed to win despite of conceding two goals at crucial points. The return of defender Adama Tamboura and midfielder Jonas Kamper ended in two goals of Randers and a total shutdown of AaB’s right wing. Unfortunately, Tamboura, who we regard as the best left back in the league, is suspended for the match. Randers will probably introduce veteran Chris Sørensen, which is a noteworthy weakening. On the other hand is the fact that top scorer Ronnie Schwartz returns after his two-game suspension. The potential striking duo of him and Djiby Fall looks frightening.

Without looking at the odds, we would expect Randers to be very small favourites so our surprise with the current market is considerable. Naturally, Nordsjælland, are usually strong at home on their artificial pitch, but they are not performing well in any aspect of the game right now. Away win is clearly our Tip of the Week.

Tip of the Week: 2 - 3.65 Mermaidbet 

UPDATE: Surprises in the called squads. Nordsjælland have called up winger Uffe Bech. This is his first call up after a long injury break, but he should not make an impact just yet (wait a few matches). Randers have not called up an injured Djiby Fall. Therefore they will probably start with the striking duo of Schwartz/Brock-Madsen. In our opinion a slight weakening. Nevertheless, we still find good value in the away win.

24. sep. 2013

Week 9 round-up

Status quo is the key words with a ROI of exactly 100%. Our total ROI is 114% so we are still a very good investment. Our third Tip of the Week against SønderjyskE proved unsuccessful, since FC Nordsjælland delivered another poor performance despite our feeling that things were about to turnaround for them. Brøndby secured us a decent weekend with a well deserved win in Aarhus.


Round 9 Hit Rate Total (units) ROI
Tip of the Week 0% -1,00 0%
Recommendations 50% 1,00 150%
Recommendations Total 33% 0,00 100%
Ideas 50% -0,30 93%




Total Hit Rate Total (units) ROI
Tip of the Week 33% -0,10 97%
Recommendations 50% 1,39 123%
Recommendations Total 44% 1,29 114%
Ideas 25% -5,80 52%

Our next bets will arrive either Wednesday or Thursday. Follow us on Twitter or Facebook to make sure you get them as quickly as possible!

18. sep. 2013

FC Copenhagen-OB


Sunday 22/9 19.00
FC Copenhagen (10th) are just off an unbelievable (although lucky) draw against Juventus. This could be the match that sparks the league champions. The defender Ragnar Sigurdsson is suspended and obvious alternative Kris Stadsgaard is injured so the defence is a bit weakened. The return of winger Nicolai Jørgensen proved to be a difference maker and he scored a goal against Juventus. With his crosses to the target man Fanendo Adi it could be lethal. OB (7th) gave Brøndby their first win of the season last week. The problem with OB is that there are only two players who can create something, the two wingers Emil Larsen and Rasmus Falk. If you can contain these two it is half a win and this is the problem with OB. No one else is capable of creating a chance.

It is not good value but at the moment we reckon that a bet on FC Copenhagen is the most worthwhile solution. The momentum from the Juventus match is something that cannot be ignored and OB’s defence seems too weak to cope with the firepower of FC Copenhagen.

Idea: 1 - 1.60 Unibet

FC Vestsjælland-Esbjerg


Monday 23/9 19.00
FC Vestsjælland (3rd) are possibly the biggest surprise until now. As a club they are inexperienced with regards to top-flight football, but the case is totally different with regards to their players. This might also be the main reason for their immediate success; a lot of players know what the Superliga is all about and at the same time there has possibly been a lack of respect from their opponents. Vestsjælland are now undefeated in six matches and they got an almost fully fit squad. Only injury concern is offensive all-rounder Rasmus Festersen, but Vestsjælland got good width, highlighted by the fact that the two newcomers in their last line-up both scored (Sørensen and Dal Hende). Esbjerg (6th) are a media-darling with their young energetic players and their success in Europe. They also have a very strong first eleven, but they seem to suffer when players are missing or when they have just been playing matches in Europe. This could be the case this Monday. Esbjerg are playing a difficult match in Liege on Thursday and three of their profiles are expected to play through injuries (Peter Ankersen, Lekven and Andreasen). This could affect this match where Esbjerg might be weakened and mentally absent. Look for updates from this site!

Under normal conditions Esbjerg would be the clear favourite in this match-up, but Esbjerg are playing Europa League and with a questionable width this could have a negative impact on their performance in this match. We have decided not to make a recommendation since the match on Thursday is an unknown factor. If anything we would see most potential in betting for the home side or for a lot of goals.

Ideas:
1 - 3.15 Betfair
Over 2.5 goals - 2.10 Bet365 

UPDATE: Esbjerg won amazingly the Europa League match on Thursday, but it was not without sacrifices. Striker Diouf left with an injury and defender Kian Hansen is also unlikely to start on Monday. More players might need a rest. If anything we would bet for FC Vestsjælland. 

FC Midtjylland-Viborg


Saturday 21/9 17.00
FC Midtjylland (1st) are still the talk of the town. With a six-point lead many regard them as favourites to the gold. The strikers Morten Rasmussen and Sylvester Igboun are two players who are hard to stop; Rasmussen as the goal scorer and Igboun as the chance creator (and a few goals as well). Midfielder Izunna Uzochukwu is suspended and other midfielders are out with injuries. Despite this they still won against a renewed FC Nordsjælland team last weekend. Viborg (5th) have impressed. The striker Thomas Dalgaard is still looking sharp and may have had a goal wrongfully nullified last weekend. Their counterattacks are deadly but once they are behind they cannot create the game and are not a team that are comfortable with the ball. The injuries of defender Mikkel Rask and midfielder Lukas Lerager are still crucial and the back-ups are not at the same standard.

FC Midtjylland are just too strong at the moment. Their offence is impressive and the width of the squad as well. The odds are not good but it looks like a home win.

Idea: 1 - 1.74 Betfair 

UPDATE: The local derby is expected to be an entertaining and goal filled match, so it could be interesting to look into anytime goalscorers. The odds for a Morten Rasmussen goal is far from interesting (2.35 at it's highest). Instead we would make a bet for Sylvester Igboun, who has been in hot scoring form with five goals in seven matches - odds 3.00 at Mermaidbet. If you want a goal scorer from Viborg a risky, but valuable, bet could be defender Ogunbiyi. He is a monster in air and hard to protect against on corners and free-kicks resulting in two goals already in this season. Odds 16.00 at Unibet is a good offer!

Randers-AaB


Friday 20/9 18.30
Randers (8th) are beginning to feel the pressure from below after two losses in a row. You could call this the “Ronnie Schwartz-absence effect” since Randers have failed to score without their top scorer. Schwartz is not playing on Friday either so an alternative goal scorer is needed. A potential candidate could be new signing Djiby Fall who got second half last weekend. It was obvious that he is not in top form yet, but there was still a sense of chaos around him. We expect more from him in the coming weeks. Randers were without key players Jonas Kamper and Adama Tamboura last weekend and both of them are doubtful for this match. Tamboura is reportedly most likely to be in the line-up and a return of the left back will be treasured since alternative Chris Sørensen proved that he is simply too slow for that position (led to a conceded goal in last game). AaB (2nd) are probably the hottest team in the league right now. They look solid in every line and they have a lot confidence. They continue until the last whistle (two goals in last ten minutes in each of the recent two matches). We expect AaB to dominate the midfield with in-form players like Thomsen, Risgård, Kusk and Würtz. Right back Henrik Dalsgaard should be fit for this match so AaB should be able to field the strongest possible team.

If you look at recent performances, the two sides are in each end of the scale. Add to this that Randers are still without their top scorer and maybe a few key players. Normally this would be a very equal match-up and we accept that this could be the case this Friday as well. We just see more quality in the current AaB side and we therefore recommend the away win with draw insurance. 

Recommendation: AH 2(+0) - 1.90 Bet365 

UPDATE: Central midfielder Risgård doubtful since his. He has been a force in midfield lately, so doubtful if the experienced Augostinussen can fill the gap. A slight disadvantage for our bet.

UPDATE v.2: According to local sources, Risgård, did not attend the last practice since his girlfriend is close to giving birth. He should be playing. For Randers both Kamper and Tamboura is in the squad. These are important improvements, but still we find marginal value in the 1.90 at
Bet365 since AaB are in better shape and Randers without top scorer Schwartz.

AGF-Brøndby


Sunday 22/9 17.00
AGF (4th) is not an easy team to cope with. One week they can be excellent, the next they are terrible. Just so was last weekend, where they lost to underdogs Viborg (0-1). AGF failed to create chances and the will was visibly not there. After the match a lot of players raised critique of coach Sørensen’s decision to substitute target man Søren Larsen at half-time. It is obvious that there is dissatisfaction with Sørensen among several key players and this may affect the performance. AGF get defensive improvements with Anders Kure and Alexander Andersen back in contention. Brøndby (11th) got their first win of the season last weekend, but what a win that was. They created tons of chances and finally the quality of their squad was visible on the pitch. The new signings, the wingers Szymanowski and Hasani, made a good first impression. Still there are some concerns, especially regarding the defence that gives away too many chances.

Morale is the key argument in our recommendation for this match. We simply believe that Brøndby are in a much better state at the moment and we expect this to materialize on the pitch. In total we find the match very equal and therefore we find value in the odds around 3.00 for Brøndby.

Recommendation: 2 - 3.00 Mermaidbet

SønderjyskE-FC Nordsjælland


Sunday 22/9 14.00
After some disappointing displays SønderjyskE (9th) are now, according to the bookies, the team least likely to win the championship (odds 500 available at Unibet). A rough translation of this would mean that they are also the favourite to get relegated. SønderjyskE are the team that always survives, but even though the fans should be concerned. SønderjyskE have failed to cover the exits of Hedinsson and Vibe with quality replacements. To make matters worse, their current top scorer and main offensive threat, Nicolaj Madsen, is suspended along with the goal scorer from the last match Daniel Christensen. One player could be returning from the injury room; Johan Absalonsen could be vital in the survival race, but he has been out for more than a month, so he is unlikely to bring much this weekend. FC Nordsjælland (12th) were a completely different team in their last round loss against FC Midtjylland. The addition of winger Joshua John gave Nordsjælland a lot and with a bit of luck they could have won. FC Nordsjælland were the first team to beat FC Midtjylland on the shooting charts this season, a signal of their fine performance. FC Nordsjælland are still vulnerable in the back and without a few offensive weapons, but they are a lot better than when the season started.

FC Nordsjælland is simply another team with Joshua John and it should only be a matter of weeks before they leave the relegation zone. SønderjyskE are in trouble without two offensive key players and with limited alternatives they are far from favourites in this match. Our Tip of the Week is a Nordsjælland win.

Tip of the Week: 2 - 2.55 Mermaidbet 

UPDATE: SønderjyskE have made a surprised signing of former Danish international Daniel Jensen. Jensen will add some passing abilities for the midfield. It is however doubtful if they will already use him in the starting line-up on Sunday. Once he gets used to the SønderjyskE system he could be a factor, but we give this signing no importance for a valuation on this match.

17. sep. 2013

Week 8-Round up

AaB won deservedly in SønderjyskE. Good news for our Tip of the Week, which is now on the right track. Also a nice weekend for our recommendations! Our ideas have not been good so far and you could have made yourself quite a pay-off by betting the opposite. Not satisfying even though we have limited expectations for this category. We will try to improve this in the coming rounds.


Round 8 Hit Rate Total (units) ROI
Tip of the Week 100% 1,90 290%
Recommendations 50% 0,29 115%
Recommendations Total 67% 2,19 173%
Ideas 0% -4,00 0%




Total Hit Rate Total (units) ROI
Tip of the Week 50% 0,90 145%
Recommendations 50% 0,39 110%
Recommendations Total 50% 1,29 122%
Ideas 13% -5,50 31%

Next bets arrive on Wednesday. Stay tuned.

12. sep. 2013

FC Midtjylland-FC Nordsjælland


Monday 16/9 19.00
FC Midtjylland (1st) are the talk of the town. They are still undefeated and clearly in the Superliga lead. The question is whether they can keep it up. Especially when injuries arrive and their depth gets challenged. In that sense the match on Monday is a good test. FC Midtjylland will be without their vital ball-winner Izunna, who is suspended. Furthermore important midfielders like Andersson and Hassan are still injured. The worst situation is however if their key striker Morten “Duncan” Rasmussen (six goals this season) is deemed unfit to play. Duncan has not been training since their last match more than a week ago because of a sore foot. He is expected to play, but it is not a sure thing. His absence could be crucial since alternatives are either injured (Janssen) or useless (Curth). FC Nordsjælland (11th) have been enjoying the break for international matches. It has given them the opportunity to integrate their new players and get old players back from injuries. We expect Stryger Larsen and Søren Christensen to be back. Furthermore the signing of winger Joshua John, who was on loan from Twente last season, is a nice move. John was an eternal cause of trouble and Nordsjælland have evidently lacked his ability to do the unexpected.

When the two teams met in March the odds for FC Nordsjælland was around 2.5-2.6. In other words they were slight favourites. Since then Midtjylland have improved their form and Nordsjælland have lost a few players. Today the odds for Nordsjælland are around 4. It is a huge difference! In our opinion also too big, but we do not make a recommendation since there are too many unknown factors. Is Duncan playing and how many players return for Nordsjælland? Look for updates from this site!

Idea:  AH 2(+0.5) – 1.98 Bet365

11. sep. 2013

AGF-Viborg


Sunday 15/9 14.00
AGF’s (2nd) offence is in top form at the moment. Six goals were scored against OB in an entertaining match. But when it comes to the defence it is quite the opposite. They have conceded 13 goals so far and that is the second most only topped by their opponent this week Viborg with 14. Also with the loss of two defenders Anders Kure and left back Alexander Juel Andersen due to injury and suspension the defence is too weak for the top goal scorer in the league, Viborg’s Thomas Dalgaard. Viborg (7th) are kind of in the same situation. The offence is strong and has scored 14 goals, which is fourth most. But without the normal starters, midfielder Lukas Lerager and defender Mikkel Rask, the organisation is weakened. Both of them were also absentees in the last match, where Viborg were clearly defeated 4-1 by FC Copenhagen.

With two teams that are in good form in offence and in a bad condition in the defence this can be an entertaining match with a lot of goals. The odds for a lot of goals are a bit on the low side and our experience with over/under bets was not good last weekend so we only propose this as an idea.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals - 1.71 Mermaidbet

UPDATE: Kure has been called up for the match. He is quite important for the stability of the AGF defense, so look for him in the starting line-up before you place a bet on many goals.

FC Copenhagen-Esbjerg


Saturday 14/9 17.00
With the first victory of the season, FC Copenhagen (10th) could be on the right track again. This could be a problem for Esbjerg. Both have mid-week matches in their respective European tournaments after this match and both coaches might save some players but we reckon they will not. This match is too important. Even though Copenhagen won 4-1 against Viborg it is still too early to say that they are on the right track again. At the end of the transfer deadline, Copenhagen brought in the Norwegian international midfielder Daniel Braaten. He might be a strong offensive weapon for the reigning champions, especially combined with Fanendo Adi who seems to be a top class striker. Winger Nicolai Jørgensen might even get into the squad for this match and he is a strong upgrade for the Copenhagen offence. Esbjerg (4th) was also quite busy during the last day of the transfer deadline. The striker and Norwegian under 21 international Bakenga join the club on loan and he could be the goal scoring striker they need after the loss of Martin Braithwaite. Esbjerg’s counter attacks are lethal and this will be their prime weapon.

Last time Esbjerg were in Copenhagen they won 2-0 and it is worth noticing that Copenhagen have not won at home for a long time (seven matches). We think it will be an even match and therefore we recommend Esbjerg not to lose.

Recommendation: AH 2(+0.5) - 2.29 Mermaidbet

UPDATE: Jørgensen should be ready for Copenhagen. New signing Fellah not ready for Esbjerg. 2.27 available at Betfair is fine.

Brøndby-OB


Sunday 15/9 19.00
It must be a déjà vu for Brøndby (12th) being in the bottom position. They struggled the entire spring season just to survive and now they are in the same mess (if not even worse). Brøndby have only three points to jump above the relegation line, but the teams immediately in front of them are not likely to stay in the bottom. Brøndby therefore urgently need points and a good possibility is against OB. Brøndby will be without winger Hjulsager, but he could be replaced by the new signing, Szymanowski, who is said to have been impressive in Recreativo Huelva. Brøndby have a lot of quality on paper, but it is safe to say that they are not at the top of their game just now. OB (5th) struggled a lot with their backline last season, but it started very well this season. That was until the last match where they conceded six goals against AGF at home! After the match OB went on to sign three new players, but none of them were defenders. Maybe coach Bech’s motto is: “attack is the best defence”. Nevertheless the new signings seem reasonable although they might need some matches to adjust. Bech will probably attempt to improve the defence by moving midfielder Skulason to left back.

The worst team of the spring (OB) are playing the worst team of this season (Brøndby). The several players that might have their debut in this match make prediction pretty difficult. Therefore we instead offer some ideas. We are sure that OB will try to take revenge defensively and take a more cautious approach. Added to the fact that Brøndby have only scored one goal in three home matches, we believe that you, if anything, should bet on a low scoring draw.

Ideas:
X – 3.50 Mermaidbet
Under 2.5 goals – 2.00 Bet365

FC Vestsjælland-Randers


Sunday 15/9 17.00
FC Vestsjælland (6th) took a vital and impressive win in Nordsjælland last round. Vestsjælland have only lost one out of seven matches in the Superliga and they are proving that despite being newcomers, they are not here just for a year of fun. They are well coached and their mission is obviously not to impress but to win points. They do this with a solid backline, a midfield with routine and a lonely Brazilian up front. Vestsjælland will be without one of their stronger offensive weapons, Rasmus Festersen. Randers (8th) have a strong team, but they have simply not extracted a satisfying amount of points from it. One of the reasons is personal mistakes, like the early red card for top scorer Ronnie Schwartz in the last match. The red card not only ended up costing Randers points in the match, but could also affect them in the coming matches. Schwartz is their main threat scoring 60% of their goals (39% last season) and he is now suspended. Therefore the message that Djiby Fall has received permission to play on Sunday is welcoming. Fall returns after some years around Europe with limited success. He is a strong striker, that has proven his skills in the Superliga before, but his current fitness situation is the big question. He probably needs a few matches to really get going.

Both clubs are without main offensive weapons. Randers look like a slim favourite although the absence of Schwartz is crucial. Both clubs have a fair share of draws so far and with the offensive problems in mind, we believe that this is the best bet.

Recommendation: X – 3.45 Mermaidbet

UPDATE: Kamper and Tamboura are not playing for Randers. Defensive and offensive weaknesses: an equal match seems very likely! 

SønderjyskE-AaB


Friday 13/9 18.30
SønderjyskE (9th) have been struggling lately, but got a good experience with the win in Randers in the last round. SønderjyskE did not impress though since Randers where at least as good despite playing 10 against 11 for nearly the entire match. SønderjyskE have been hit hard by injuries and suspensions, but things are getting better with the return of defender Jonasson and striker Bechmann. Still the list of injuries is quite long and therefore the depth is limited. Their last good performance is more than a month ago, and it will be interesting to see if their recent win improves their confidence. AaB (3rd) made a brilliant comeback against Brøndby in the previous round. Right back Dalsgaard who came in from the bench set up the win. He should be fit for a full match, which is a clear improvement. On the negative side is the injury concern regarding central defender Lasse Nielsen. Kenneth Petersen is the obvious alternative, but this will undoubtedly be a weakening.  AaB have looked solid in recent matches and especially their midfield has been proving that it is a great combination of routine and creativity.

SønderjyskE have been the weaker side in the last several matches and against an optimistic AaB, they might get their hands full. Add to this that SønderjyskE usually perform better when playing away (last season they averaged 1 point at home per game versus 1.5 points away), so no reason to give much credit to home field advantage. In our opinion the match should at least be rated equal by the bookies and in that sense 2.90 contains clear value: our tip of the week!

Tip of the Week: 2 – 2.90 Mermaidbet

UPDATE: Lasse Nielsen is ready to play. Dalsgaard reportedly doubtful. He is important offensively, but his defensive skills will not be missed since Kristensen is a good cover. SønderjyskE still with several players missing. Bet still with good value - surprising to see odds 3.00 available right now (Thursday at 8 PM)

3. sep. 2013

Week 7 round-up

Unfortunately, Schwartz ended our hopes of a weekend surplus with an early red card. We are disappointed not to give you a profit from Day 1, but keep hanging, it will happen!


Round 7 Hit Rate Total (units) ROI
Tip of the Week 0% -1,00 0%
Recommendations 50% 0,10 105%
Recommendations Total 33% -0,90 70%
Ideas 25% -1,50 63%

We are back with Round 8 previews in a week