31. okt. 2014

FC Midtjylland-FC Nordsjælland


Friday 31/10 18.30
FC Midtjylland (1st) are in a fabulous position after a great start to the season. Nevertheless, the performances in the last two matches were not impressive (yielding a win and a draw anyway). Could it be a slight dip in form? At home FC Midtjylland are a beast (won all six matches), and with the stakes on the line here, FC Midtjylland should surely be highly motivated. The offense is always very strong, and they should be able to take advantage of FC Nordsjælland’s defence, which is far from outstanding. FC Midtjylland have some defence issues with Erik Sviatchenko injured and Francis Dickoh suspended, but Jim Larsen is back to full fitness and should be able to cover the central defender position fine. FC Nordsjælland (4th) have dropped some important points in the past few matches (one point in last three matches). Even though they dominated against AaB last weekend (lost 0-1 from a late own goal), it is concerning that they are losing even the home matches where they tend to be much stronger. Could it be a slight dip in form for FC Nordsjælland as well? The key wingers Uffe Bech and Joshua John are surely not as dangerous at the moment as previous in the season. Anders Christiansen returns from suspension and he should bolster the defensive midfield. FC Nordsjælland won the last H2H (2-1 at home).

It is a match where the defensive players could face problems. A high scoring game is in the cards since both teams have their forces offensively. With respect to the winner: FC Midtjylland should be clear favourites. They have the strongest line-up and are at the same time a strong home team, but if Bech and John have a good day FC Nordsjælland have the potential to surprise. Therefore we only pick FC Midtjylland win as an idea here.

Ideas: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.87 at Ladbrokes
Over 2.5 goals – 1.77 at Betsafe

Link to free Leaguespy preview for this match:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=40153&a=33624

FC Vestsjælland-Esbjerg


Saturday 1/11 17.00
FC Vestsjælland (9th) took a very important win in Silkeborg last weekend (2-1). Silkeborg were the best team, but FC Vestsjælland capitalized from a good start and a doubtful penalty. The win was very important since FC Vestsjælland got some vital points in the fight against relegation, but truth is that FC Vestsjælland need to improve their game if they are to survive. In the midweek cup win (3-2) in Svendborg (2nd division team) goalkeeper Thomas Mikkelsen were man of the match. FC Vestsjælland fielded a team with several reserves, but it was nevertheless a concerning performance. FC Vestsjælland look like a team that is struggling to find the form. They will hope that the home field can help them yet again (three wins and two draws this season). Esbjerg (10th) are a top half club, that has been caught up in the bottom. Esbjerg have lacked some luck and some cynicism (way too many draws). In the recent matches the play has started to improve a lot, and the team is brimming with confidence. Last weekend against in-form Brøndby (0-0) they were very dominant until they ran out of energy at the end. They were more efficient in the midweek cup game against Horsens (1st division team), where they won with the remarkable score 7-0! Several of Esbjerg’s key offensive players got on the score sheet. For this match, young winger Jeppe Andersen is suspended. Casper Nielsen or Mohammed Fellah will replace him. They are both decent alternatives (Fellah with great match in Horsens).

Esbjerg are a stronger team than FC Vestsjælland. At the same time it seems like they are in much better current state than FC Vestsjælland, who are struggling to find their game. We expect to see Esbjerg start a winning streak and at odds 2.30 we find fine value here.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.30 at Tipico

27. okt. 2014

OB-Hobro


Sunday 2/11 14.00
OB (11th) are in a poor state. They have lost the last two matches with a total score of 5-0. The last match in Randers (3-0) was terrible. OB had 3 shots in the entire match (Randers had 23 shots). OB are a team without confidence. New head coach Ove Pedersen has not had a positive effect thus far. The team is as such decent, but the key players are not performing (Rasmus Falk and Emil Larsen). Add to this that the constant media attention must cost a lot of energy. This match is a terrible one for OB. All pressure will be on the home team since no one expects anything from Hobro. If OB loses here, they will be far from the rivals above the relegation line. Hobro (6th) have not won in the last six matches (four draws and two losses). They can no longer surprise the opponents like they managed to in the first rounds. Hobro are not a poor team though. They have a brilliant team spirit (something that OB really lacks) and some quality players that have had a good season (Antipas and Hvilsom). They are especially good at counter attacking, why they have also earned most points when playing away (including a 2-1 win at OB in July). Hobro played a decent game against FC Copenhagen last weekend (0-2) where they with some luck could have earned points. We are quite sure that they still have a lot of confidence in the project (to survive). Left back Jacob Tjørnelund is doubtful due to a head injury.

OB are in a really poor state. At home against the league’s underdogs, they will have all pressure on them, and we really doubt they will be able to handle it at the moment. Hobro have proven several times that they are tough visitors (only one away loss this season) and they have some counter attacking qualities that should give OB’s fragile defence problems. Tipico is offering way too much here. Hurry up, before the odds drops.

Tip of the Week: 2 (DNB) – 2.64 at Tipico
Place 71.4% of total stake on Hobro and 28.6% on draw   

FC Copenhagen-SønderjyskE


Sunday 2/11 17.00
FC Copenhagen (3rd) are starting to look like the team that we expected from the start of the season. With three league wins in a row and only one conceded goal in the progress, it looks like a FC Copenhagen classic: strong at the back and able to tire opponents with great physique. Only minus is the lack of a striker in-form. Andreas Cornelius has not found his old level yet. He is suspended here, but FC Copenhagen has no true alternatives. It is likely that offensive midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen will get the chance on top here. SønderjyskE (8th) are the masters of 1-1 draws. Six out of the seven last games have ended 1-1 (not including the midweek 1-1 in the cup)! SønderjyskE are doing a fine job at the moment, but could use some more efficiency in front of goal. SønderjyskE have a fine team at the moment and relegation should not be an issue. However, you get the feeling that they are very dependent on the massive defensive work of midfielder Adama Guira. Guira is suspended here, and you could expect that this will give extra space for FC Copenhagen.

Although SønderjyskE are doing well at the moment and they are a tough team to beat, this match looks very difficult for them, especially since Guira is out. FC Copenhagen are without Cornelius, but this should be a smaller problem, although it will be interesting to see how they solve this offensively. We would not bet on the winner at current odds, but a small bet on few goals could be interesting. With under 2.5 goals you also include the chance of yet another SønderjyskE 1-1.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.03 at Betsafe

Brøndby-Randers


Sunday 2/11 18.30
Brøndby (5th) were put under pressure in Esbjerg last weekend (0-0). Brøndby hardly had a chance in the first half, and it proved that Brøndby are still not a finished team. They have quality, but lack consistency in the performances. The defence surely looks better with the addition of Daniel Agger, but the offense is still not convincing. Brøndby have many decent wingers, but none of them are really performing more than once in a while. Striker Teemu Pukki has showed more consistency until now. He has been a constant threat over the past matches and scored four goals in the process. Randers (2nd) are having a splendid season, and just come from a splendid performance. The 3-0 win against OB could have been even bigger. Randers had 23 shots, while OB had 3! This says something about the poor state of OB, but also about the current quality in Randers. They are very difficult to create chances against. They have had a lot of consistency in the line-up, and this has really helped. Only problem is the offense that has had problems scoring, but with both strikers getting on the score sheet last weekend, confidence should not be the issue. Randers are the team in the league that have allowed the fewest shots (111 compared to league average of 155). They use a lot of physique and this will surely add frustration for Brøndby’s smaller players. The same match in the September ended 2-0 to Randers.

Brøndby are definitely improving since the return of Daniel Agger, but they could face problems here. Randers are not a team that is easily beaten, and Brøndby are a team that can be physically dominated. If we were to pick anything here it would be Randers.

Idea: 2 – 3.95 at Betfair

AaB-Silkeborg


Monday 3/11 19.00
AaB (7th) are playing some poor football at the moment. They are playing matches all the time (league, cup and Europa League), but only rarely perform up to the level from last season. The defence has been okay, but offensively it has really been poor. They are by far the team in the league with the fewest shots on target (37 versus league average of 55). It is a concerning stat for a defending champion. At the same time the strikers lack confidence (Helenius and Jacobsen). AaB’s poor season is likely to be due to fatigue (mentally and physically) and the lack of a quality creative midfielder (no one to replace Kasper Kusk (now Twente)). Silkeborg (12th) simply cannot win in the league. We have seen them dominate many matches, but failed to get points. Recently they should have won against FC Vestsjælland, but the strikers are unbelievably poor in front of the goal. Silkeborg only score on 12% of their shots on target (league average 26% and FC Copenhagen are the second poorest with 23%). This is a crazy statistic. Silkeborg do not seem affected in the attitude. They fight hard for every point, and they will win at some point. Although the team lack individual stars to decide matches, they must have luck on their side at some point. Silkeborg have lost eight games this season and only one of them has been with a goal difference of more than one goal. The previous match between the two clubs this season ended 2-2.

AaB are really struggling to find their game (and was even forced to play 120 minutes on Thursday in the cup), and last seasons success seems far away. Silkeborg are also struggling, but mostly with getting correct payment for their effort. AaB have only won two home games this season, and it has not been the fortress of previous seasons. We expect Silkeborg to put up a good fight and we doubt they will lose with more than a goal here.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +1) – 1.81 at Ladbrokes

UPDATE: AaB will be without captain Rasmus Würtz (injured) and defender Rasmus Thelander (rested). Both very important players for AaB. AaB have a tight schedule with Europa League on Thursday and might rest even more players. Silkeborg will benefit from the return of central defender Dennis Flinta from suspension. Looks good for our bet. AaB are usually not impressive when Würtz is absent.

UPDATE v2: According to local newspaper, Nordjyske, AaB will plan on starting with regulars Henrik Dalsgaard, Kasper Risgård and Nicklas Helenius on the bench (they need a rest apparently)! In total it is a closer to a semi "B"-team (than the "A"-team) that AaB will field tonight! You can see the expected line-ups at Leaguespy:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=40158&a=33624

Week 12 round-up (14/15)

Another round with a positive return at Superligabets. This is the fourth round in a row with profit. This time it was a +1.22 unit return (+12%). Unfortunately our Tip of the Week is cursed. It is simply unbelievable that we have performed so poor for a long time. All our other categories are in + for the season and all-time. We had some fortune this weekend. AaB did not deserve their very late winner against FC Nordsjælland. We have been unlucky in the past, so we feel it is okay. And our betting account likes it too!

24. okt. 2014

Silkeborg-FC Vestsjælland


Friday 24/10 18.30
Silkeborg (12th) are not a lucky team. Eleven matches into the season they are still without a victory. They have actually played some fine matches recently and it would not have been unfair if they had gained points at OB or FC Midtjylland. They are continuously struggling with very poor finishing: they only score on 12% of their shots on target (league average is 26%). It is clear that the strikers lack confidence. Silkeborg are indeed creating chances, and based on this productivity they should be around 7-8th in the table. Silkeborg lack a player with individual abilities to make decisive things. Silkeborg will be without strong central defender Dennis Flinta. Captain Frank Hansen is expected to return to cover the right wing. FC Vestsjælland (10th) have very poor momentum after some rather weak performances lately (capped by the 5-0 in Brøndby last weekend). It is somewhat odd since all the important players are fit at the moment (despite long-term injured Michael Lumb). FC Vestsjælland are especially struggling in the away matches. They have lost all six away matches and not really deserved anything else. The defence is clearly struggling here, and they lack some energy from the offense, where only Rasmus Festersen has something to offer. On the positive side, the two teams met two months ago in Slagelse (hometown of FC Vestsjælland), where FC Vestsjælland were the only team on the pitch and could have won bigger than the actual 2-0. It could be that FC Vestsjælland are a poor match for Silkeborg, although they are quite similar in type of players and formation used (3-5-2).

One thing is sure in this match: one team will break a habit. Silkeborg have not won a match yet, while FC Vestsjælland have not earned a single point in away matches. For us, the bookies seem to have overvalued Silkeborg a bit here. We expect a very even match, where Silkeborg should be slight favourites, but nothing more. Silkeborg are really weak in finishing and they looked poor the last time they faced FC Vestsjælland. Both defences have been quite generous lately, so an over bet could also be interesting at current prices.

Ideas: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.98 at Bet365
Over 2.5 goals – 2.14 at Betfair

SønderjyskE-FC Midtjylland


Saturday 25/10 17.00
SønderjyskE (7th) managed to get a nice win at FC Nordsjælland last weekend (3-2). After five draws in a row it was about time SønderjyskE won a match. SønderjyskE have delivered some brilliant attacking football lately, but they have just lacked the necessary cynicism in front of goal. Players like Marvin Pourie and Tommy Bechmann are strong strikers, and they will always create some danger. Unfortunately, SønderjyskE will be without their strong right back Hallgrimur Jonasson. This is a tough blow since FC Midtjylland are very strong over the wings. Furthermore, SønderjyskE will be without their head coach, since he was suspended due to statements on Twitter. FC Midtjylland (1st) are the clear number one. They win even on bad days like last weekend against Silkeborg (2-1). FC Midtjylland have such a strong offense. At the moment it is the most feared unit in the league with the likes of Duncan, Sisto, Igboun and Andersson. Defensively they are not in an optimal situation since strong central defenders Jim Larsen (small chance he could play) and Erik Sviatchenko are injured. The last time the two teams met in Haderslev (SønderjyskE’s hometown) it ended 3-1 to FC Midtjylland in a match FC Midtjylland dominated. FC Midtjylland could field the exact same team here, while SønderjyskE have improved since.

Two teams with defensive issues and very strong offenses. For us, this is a clear over match and also our best tip of the weekend. We even take an extra gamble by picking over 3.5 goals. The chances of this match turning into a defensive struggle are slim. If we were to pick a winner here, we would choose FC Midtjylland despite of SønderjyskE having improved. We believe that FC Midtjylland are a bad match-up for the physical SønderjyskE players.

Tip of the Week: Over 3.5 goals – 3.10 at Sportingbet
Idea: 2 – 1.95 at Betsafe

Do not miss out on the possibility to read the free Leaguespy match preview with data provided by us:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=39677&a=33624 

Randers-OB


Sunday 26/10 14.00
Randers (3rd) missed out on a great opportunity to become a title candidate by losing 1-0 in Parken (against FC Copenhagen). Instead several rivals have now caught them, and they will have to get back to winning ways in order to keep up. Randers have not won in the last three matches. They looked without ideas in Parken, and they tend to struggle when they are pushed forward to attack. Randers are strong team nevertheless, but they have their prime abilities in physique and hard work, not in creativity or offensive efficiency. The result is many low-scoring matches (9 out of 11 under 2.5 goals!). Randers’ solid goalkeeper Kalle Johnsson might be out due to a shoulder injury. Ogmundur Kristinsson could make his first start instead. Otherwise no reported injuries. OB (11th) are in a bad situation after the deserved 2-0 defeat in Esbjerg. The mood is low after a string of poor performances, and new coach Ove Pedersen will have to do his utmost to improve the situation. One of the few things to base optimism on is the return of key midfielder Rasmus Falk. Falk has a talismanic effect on OB and his talented teammate winger Emil Larsen (who has been poor in the absence of Falk). OB will defend here and rely on counter-attacks where the speed of Falk and Larsen will be the weapon. OB won in Randers in the previous meeting (2-0).

Randers could be on a downtrend, but OB is already on the bottom. That being said odds 1.85 for home win here is not splendid. OB could potentially be boosted by Falk’s return, and Randers are having problems in front of goal. We would pick under here.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 1.89 at Betfair

Hobro-FC Copenhagen


Sunday 26/10 17.00
Hobro (6th) showed last weekend in AaB (1-1) that despite of the big loss to FC Midtjylland (1-5), they are not suddenly turning into the team you beat easily. It definitely helped that Jonas Damborg returned to the central midfield. He is important for protecting the defence. However, the defence will be without left back Jacob Tjørnelund due to a head injury. Hobro have three possible alternatives for the position, but it will be a weakening since Tjørnelund has been rock solid. Hobro face a tough match here against FC Copenhagen, but with Hvilsom and Antipas in the offence, they will always have threats. FC Copenhagen (4th) are slowly improving. They are very difficult to score against at the moment. The defence looks better for each match, while the midfield is working hard. Add to this that the return of Nicolai Jørgensen and signing of Alexander Kacaniklic have improved the offense a lot. Now the only problem is the lack of quality in the finishing from lone striker Andreas Cornelius. If he gets some confidence FC Copenhagen could start a winning streak. No important injuries reported.

Hobro are not able to surprise the opponents like in the first rounds. They have not won in five matches, and despite of the quality of players like Hvilsom and Antipas we doubt they will win here. FC Copenhagen need to win matches in order to catch up with FC Midtjylland and they won’t make the same mistakes as in Parken (lost 0-3 to Hobro in beginning of August!). We believe that FC Copenhagen will be too much for Hobro this time around, and with Tjørnelund out, FC Copenhagen should good opportunities for attacking on the right flank.

Idea: 2 (1-0) – 2.75 at Tipico

Esbjerg-Brøndby


Sunday 26/10 19.00
Esbjerg (9th) won 2-0 against OB last weekend and that should mean that they left the relegation line for good. In our opinion the team is simply too strong to go down. Esbjerg are still struggling a bit though. Truth is that Esbjerg only scored due to OB mistakes. Esbjerg have a hard time creating chances on their own. They play some power football, and they are always strong at home against the big clubs. Esbjerg will welcome back strong left back Jonas Knudsen who was suspended last weekend. Important winger Jakob Ankersen could be doubtful after being substituted early last weekend with back problems. If he is out Esbjerg look short of offensive creativity. Brøndby (5th) were impressive against FC Vestsjælland (5-0). They had loads of chances and finally got some players on the scoresheet that maybe lacked some confidence. The mood is high at the moment with the 2nd place just a win ahead. It appears that the Daniel Agger signing could have boosted the overall confidence of the players. It will be interesting to see if Brøndby can improve the 2-2 result from the last time they met in Esbjerg (barely a month ago). Back then it was a very even match.

Both clubs appear to be in the escalator going upward. Brøndby have left the best impression lately, while Esbjerg still have something to work with in under to reach the level from last season. Esbjerg are always strong at home and it will undoubtedly be a tough and tight match.

Idea: 2 (DNB) – 2.12 at Unibet

FC Nordsjælland-AaB


Monday 27/10 19.00
FC Nordsjælland (2nd) have had a brilliant start to the season but the last three matches have been quite poor. They barely managed to win at home against a weak OB team (2-1), followed by a quite lucky 0-0 in Randers and last weekend they lost at home to SønderjyskE (2-3) in a fairly even match. FC Nordsjælland are very dependent on the performance of wingers Uffe Bech and Joshua John. Bech was substituted early against SønderjyskE with an injury but he should be back for this match, while John hasn’t been performing at his best in the last few matches. FC Nordsjælland could benefit from the possible return of left back and captain Patrick Mtiliga on left back. FC Nordsjælland’s defence is not very good, so Mtiliga is needed for stability. Another important player for stability is defensive midfielder Anders Christiansen, who is suspended here. This is an important absence. AaB (8th) have not been good in the league. The performances have been largely poor. Things could be improving though. AaB won in midweek 3-0 against Dynamo Kiev. It was an impressive win that could boost confidence for AaB, who surely have the ability to do better in the league. With players like Helenius and Enevoldsen returning to old form, AaB could advance quickly in the table. AaB have a strong midfield and we expect it to be able to dominate against a FC Nordsjælland midfield weakened by the absence of Christiansen.

We believe that FC Nordsjælland could get problems here against an AaB team boosted by their fine performance in midweek. Quality wise AaB should be stronger here, and although the artificial field is always a clear advantage for FC Nordsjælland, we believe the bookies have given them too much credit here.

Recommendation: 2 – 3.40 at Bet365

UPDATE: Enevoldsen is out for AaB, who looks to make several changes to the starting line-up. We are unsure how the reaction will be. We are no longer as confident with respect to our recommendation. You can see the expected line-ups through the Leaguespy access below.

Free Leaguespy access for the match here:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=39681&a=33624 

20. okt. 2014

Week 11 round-up (14/15)

A decent round for us with a positive return of 1.14 units (+9% return). Unfortunately, it was mainly due to success from our ideas and #Twitbets. We would like to have more success on our recommendations. This time our Tip of the Week failed after a dubious penalty decision to the benefit of FC Copenhagen (1-0). However, Randers did not perform up to our expectations. In the FC Midtjylland match we went from 1 successful bet to 2 successful bets and finally 0 successful bets during the last two minutes of the match! Tough luck. In total we have a return of +3.33 units for the sesaon (+3% return). We will bring you more bets for the next week soon!


15. okt. 2014

AaB-Hobro


Friday 17/10 18.30
AaB (7th) are unlikely to retain their championship title. The sale of midfielder Kasper Kusk combined with many injuries seems to be more than the squad can handle. AaB have lacked continuity and have been forced to play without several first choice players. For this match AaB should benefit from the return of captain Rasmus Würtz from suspension and left back Patrick Kristensen from injury. This means that AaB can field a pretty strong starting eleven. AaB do lack some offensive punch though, highlighted by the scaring fact that they have had the fewest shots on target in the league in this season (34 in ten matches – league average is 47). The strikers are strong finishers (also holds an above average scoring efficiency), so it is a matter of them being served with chances by the AaB midfielders. The most creative AaB midfielder Nicolaj Thomsen appears to be improving after having suffered from a dip in form due to injury. AaB are still without the long-term injured Lukas Spalvis, Rasmus Jönsson and Jakob Ahlmann. Hobro (4th) took a beating in last round (1-5 to FC Midtjylland). The quality difference was evident. Hobro’s semi-professional players could not keep up with the league leaders. Hobro suffered under the absence of midfield spoiler Jonas Damborg who was suspended. He will return here and bolster Hobro’s defence. Is this the end of the run for Hobro? They have undoubtedly over-performed until now, but that does not mean that they will suddenly turn into an easy opponent. They still benefit from an entirely fit squad and the offensive qualities of speedy Quincy Antipas and the resolute Mads Hvilsom. It is a local derby and the stadium could be full.

It is a difficult match for betting. Will AaB finally get the offense going? Are Hobro without confidence after the big loss last round? We expect AaB to win this match. Their squad should have more quality. Additionally they will have very strong home support for this match and benefit from the return of the captain. The price for a home win is not spectacular though.

Idea: 1 – 1.71 at Betfair

UPDATE: Kristensen is not fit, so Gorter will cover left back. A small minus for AaB. Furthermore, strong winger Nicolaj Thomsen is reportedly exhausted after two U21 international games. He is likely to be replaced by young Andreas Bruhn who has not impressed yet. With odds currently dropping on AaB, the value is starting to move towards Hobro.

Get the free Leaguespy preview for the match here:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=39079&a=33624

FC Nordsjælland-SønderjyskE


Saturday 18/10 17.00
FC Nordsjælland (2nd) were lucky to get one point in Randers (0-0) in the last round. Now they return to the home field were they are typically much stronger. FC Nordsjælland have a strong offensive trio of Uffe Bech (just got his first cap last weekend), Joshua John and Kasper Lorentzen. They are difficult to handle, especially in Farum. The team consists of mostly small, albeit technically strong players. This could give problems against SønderjyskE’s physical players. SønderjyskE (9th) have registered five 1-1 matches in a row! So despite of having only lost two out of ten matches, they are part of the relegation battle. They have not been cynical in front of the target. They have a strong offense that create many chances, and it will only be a matter of time before it starts scoring more than one goal per match. We especially expect more from Marvin Pourie who made some great things in the last match against FC Vestsjælland, but just failed to put it in. Neither of the teams have important injuries or suspensions.

The artificial pitch in Farum always gives some extra percentages for a home win, but despite of this we believe that SønderjyskE will be difficult to beat. The team is too strong to be in this relegation battle. For us the two interesting bets here are SønderjyskE not to lose, and more than 2.5 goals. The latter is due to the strong offenses of both teams, which should give us an intriguing match.

Ideas:  X2 – 2.05 at Bet365
Over 2.5 goals – 1.90 at Betfair

UPDATE: Captain and left back Patrick Mtiliga is doubtful for FC Nordsjælland. Right winger Nicolaj Madsen is out for SønderjyskE. Mtiliga is the most important absence here.

Leaguespy preview link:http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=39080&a=33624

FC Midtjylland-Silkeborg


Sunday 19/10 14.00
FC Midtjylland (1st) are on the run and question is if anyone will catch them. They have been very strong this season despite of many injuries. They are dominating their matches in an extent that no other clubs can match (SoTR(explanation here) 67% - next best 56%). With the return of striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen (scored a hattrick in last round) to full fitness, FC Midtjylland look frighteningly strong (won 5-1 in Hobro last round). They are still quite unlucky when it comes to injuries. Strong central defender Erik Sviatchenko is the newest addition to the injury list, which also counts winger Rilwan Hassan and central defender Jim Larsen. On the positive side, right back (and captain) Kristian Bach Bak could return to the starting line-up here. In total FC Midtjylland still have a very strong team with some dangerous weapons offensively (Duncan, Andersson, Igboun and Sisto). Silkeborg (12th) are stuck in the bottom and only the most optimistic Silkeborg supporters believe that they will survive. Silkeborg have lacked efficiency in front of goal (scoring on 11% of their shots on target – league average is 26%). This was highlighted in their last match against OB (lost 2-0) where Silkeborg were the better team, but failed to score despite of having great chances (even missed a penalty). Based on the ability to create chances they are actually decent, but when midfielder Emil Scheel (scored four out of five Silkeborg goals) appears to be the only one able to score, the outlook is concerning. Silkeborg have not scored in an away match in this season (five matches)! H2H statistic is the only one pointing in the favour of Silkeborg: they have not lost in the last seven matches against FC Midtjylland! Do not put too much in to this as most of the matches are years back in time.

FC Midtjylland are giant favourites here, and we would be surprised if they do not win. Silkeborg will probably give up a good fight, but the opponent seems too strong here. The speedy FC Midtjylland wingers against the slow Silkeborg defence are a good match-up for the home side. Silkeborg not to score could also be interesting (played five away games without scoring!)

Recommendation: 1 (AH -1.5) – 2.35 at Unibet
Idea: Silkeborg to score under 0.5 goals – 2.16 at Unibet

Leaguespy preview can be found here:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=39081&a=33624 

Brøndby-FC Vestsjælland


Sunday 19/10 17.00
Brøndby (6th) appear to have picked up the pace after a few poor matches, where new players had to settle in the system. The last two matches have looked good, and especially the offense appears to be improving. New signing Teemu Pukki has scored three goals in the last two matches. Defensively the addition of Daniel Agger should start to see its effect. Brøndby will be without defensive midfielder Martin Ørnskov who is suspended, but the young Lebogang Phiri is a nice back-up (if not even better than Ørnskov). FC Vestsjælland (8th) are undergoing a period with a dip in form. During the last matches FC Vestsjælland have not played with the same energy as the first matches of the season. Add to this that FC Vestsjælland have struggled away under new coach Michael Hansen (lost all five away matches!). They are likely to be put under intense pressure here, and if Brøndby manage to keep the ball on the ground it should be to the home sides advantage.

It is match between two teams in each end of the momentum barometer. Brøndby should dominate FC Vestsjælland in this match. FC Vestsjælland will try to defend a point home, but in case Brøndby get an early goal we will see some positive football with more goals in store.

Ideas: 1 – 1.65 at Betsafe
Over 2.5 goals – 2.00 at Bet365

FC Copenhagen-Randers


Sunday 19/10 19.00
FC Copenhagen (5th) took an unimpressive win in the last round at home to Esbjerg (2-1). FC Copenhagen scored on the two shots on target they had, and Esbjerg felt unfairly treated by the referee who had a poor match. In total FC Copenhagen leave the impression of being a team that is unfinished. Striker Andreas Cornelius is playing without confidence and not creating much danger. A player who has had a positive influence on the FC Copenhagen offense Bashkim Kadrii is out with a serious knee injury. FC Copenhagen will be very dependent on the mood of offensive midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen, but he has been very inconsistent in his performances. Defensively FC Copenhagen could be without right back Tom Høgli. Randers (3rd) are playing some solid football at the moment, and they really should have won last weekend against FC Nordsjælland (0-0). The problem for Randers is the lack of a striker in form. Nine goals scored in ten matches are not impressive, but only seven conceded goals are. Randers have showed some solid defensive football. The organisation is good and Randers allow very few chances (leads the league in shots allowed: 98 – league average is 131). Randers have benefitted from great stability in the line-up, where the same defensive players have played almost every time. The defence will be tested here, since central defender Mads Fenger is suspended, and alternative Jacob Dehn does not have the same quality. FC Copenhagen have had problems with Randers in the past: they did not manage to beat them in the three matches last season.

FC Copenhagen are playing some poor football at the moment. They are playing against a Randers team that has lots of confidence. Randers are always a challenge for the big teams due to their strong organisation and physique. Lots of value in the away side here in a match that could be low-scoring.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.075 at Bet365
Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.77 at Betsafe

Free Leaguespy access for the match:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=39083&a=33624

Esbjerg-OB


Monday 20/10 19.00
Esbjerg (11th) are struggling at the moment. They play some decent football, but they do not get points for it. Offensively they are way to dependent on Martin Pusic (scored six out of eleven Esbjerg goals). Pusic is a great player, but the opponents know this by now. If they can eliminate Pusic, they eliminate Esbjerg’s offense. New offensive signing Robin Söder has not convinced us, he has been mostly anonymous and does not invest sufficient effort. Winger Jakob Ankersen who has been a key player of Esbjerg in past seasons is underperforming at the moment. This leaves Esbjerg’s only strength to be the very energetic and offensive minded backs, Jonas Knudsen and Ryan Johnson Laursen. Unfortunately Knudsen is suspended here, and Esbjerg are likely to cover with midfielder Martin Bergvold, which is a quite poor alternative. OB (10th) got a point-wise good start under new coach Ove Pedersen (won 2-0 against Silkeborg). In truth they played a quite poor match that easily could have ended in another defeat. Instead OB took an undeserved win, but this could add some much needed confidence. OB have been very poor this autumn, where they have struggled due to the injury of midfielder Rasmus Falk and the poor form of winger Emil Larsen. Rasmus Falk could play a minor part here, but he has been out for a while so it is doubtful that he will have a significant effect here. OB have some defensive players with a good fighting attitude and coach Pedersen is likely to focus on this foremost with the aim of just getting a point here. Captain and central midfielder Ari Skulason is an injury doubt here.

Esbjerg are fairly one-sided and lack confidence. At the other end OB lack offensive weapons and will at all costs try to avoid a defeat that will put them below the relegation line. For us this is very likely to be a low-scoring match, where a draw would be logical.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 2.025 at Bet365
Idea: X – 3.60 at Bet365

UPDATE: Central defender Daniel Stenderup is likely to take care of the left back for Esbjerg, while Eddi Gomes is back in the central defense. Seems like a better decision than putting Bergvold on left back position. 

Leaguespy preview:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=39084&a=33624

6. okt. 2014

Week 10 round-up (14/15)

Another fine round for Superligabets (+18% return). We feel that all our pre-game bets had value and it was just a matter of luck that led to not all of them being a success (Silkeborg deserved more, Randers were dominant and Esbjerg were unfairly treated by the ref in a shocking extent). We finally got our Tip of the Week to be a success. It was also a good idea to post picks early (odds dropped on both our early picks who ended with wins). We will probably do that in the future, so follow us on Facebook/Twitter to get the picks as early as possible. Unfortunately our risky #Twitbets did not pay off in this round. Petter Andersson had a great chance to score but missed, while Thomas Augustinussen only committed one free kick that was on the verge of a booking. In total, a good week, and a decent season until now. We aim to improve however, especially regarding our Tip of the Week and recommendations! Next weekend is without action due to international matches!