AaB-AGF

Sunday 18/5 17.00

AaB (1st) have had a marvellous week winning the championship last weekend and the cup on Thursday. This match will be a huge celebration in front of a full stadium. It will also be a chance to send players leaving the club away in a good way. Winger Anders Due and striker Jeppe Curth will be in the starting line-up, which is unusual for the two. It signals that AaB might take it easy here. The home support could give them wings though and do not forget that they have some very gifted offensive players like Kusk and Thomsen. AGF (12th) have lost ten matches in a row, but they still have an outside chance of survival if they get 3 points here. Their goal difference is poor though so they will probably have to beat AaB with several goals here to have a chance (3-4 goals at least). In the last ten matches AGF have only scored two goals, so it is a mission impossible. AGF will also be without suspended defenders Alexander Juel Andersen and Jens Jønsson, important midfielders Martin Jørgensen and Danny Olsen, and striker Marcus Solberg. It is a poor AGF team arriving to a party in Aalborg without any offensive creativity. Just imagining them scoring is difficult at the moment.

If AaB decides to do so they will smash AGF here. But will they? The motivational level of AaB will be difficult to tell until the match is started. At the moment betting on them is not interesting though. The only bet that looks interesting is AGF not to score (they have not done that in 8 of the last 10 matches!). If AaB scores the first goal, AGF will fall apart.

Tip of the Week: AGF not to score – 2.70 at Sportingbet

UPDATE: AaB are expected to start without key midfielders Risgård and Kusk, goalkeeper Larsen and striker Spalvis. They should still dominate AGF though, although they might struggle to find the net.

Randers-FC Vestsjælland

Sunday 18/5 17.00

A match between two teams without much at stake – only some payment based on final league position which will probably be irrelevant to the players. Randers (8th) have done really well in the past three matches, dominating their opponents but failing to harvest the points (only one point). Striker Schwartz scored again last weekend and it seems like he is motivated to finish as high as possible on the scoring list (currently third with 14 goals). Randers have a strong team to choose from. Only absences are right back Thomsen and winger Borring, but this is nothing new. Randers will be eager to finish the season well in front of their fans. FC Vestsjælland (9th) are clear of relegation which must be a big relief for the underdogs. They have arrived here by using a very defensive approach. With survival secured they will probably approach this match relaxed and loosen the defensive focus. They will be without strong left back Lumb and regular winger Dal Hende. FC Vestsjælland have been a difficult team to host. They have only lost four away matches this season (out of 16 matches).

It is a match between two teams with great physique. Randers should be better on the ball though. Despite of FC Vestsjælland’s strong away statistic, we believe that the might take it easy here, making things easier for the home team. Randers should win this one.

Recommendation: 1 – 1.91 at Betfair

FC Copenhagen-OB

Sunday 18/5 17.00

FC Copenhagen (3rd) will be highly motivated for this match. A win might give them silver medals (and thus Champions League participation). It has been a terrible season for FC Copenhagen and to obtain silver medal would be fantastic in this light. It is especially the absence of playmaker Nicolai Jørgensen that has had a negative effect on the team the entire season. Jørgensen has seen some playing time lately, but is not fit for this match. Defensively the situation is not good either. Central defenders Margreitter and Mellberg are absent and midfielder Delaney will probably have to stand-in alongside Stadsgaard in the central defence. OB (7th) have even greater problems. They have four suspended players: key midfielder Rasmus Falk, defenders Espen Ruud, Daniel Høegh and Anders Møller Christensen (captain). They are important absences and naturally a bad situation to be without three starters in defence. OB will have to move midfielders to the backline and several players who have experienced limited playing time will get their chance. Offensively OB will lose a lot by the absence of Rasmus Falk. He is the best player in the club and has been linked with Ajax Amsterdam.

FC Copenhagen are motivated and face less squad problems than OB. At home they should win this one, but the bookies have surely set the line accordingly. The bookies also expect goals galore due to the several defensive absences but neither of the teams possesses a strong offense currently. We find good value in under 3.5 goals.

Recommendation: Under 3.5 goals – 1.89 at Betfair

SønderjyskE-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 18/5 17.00

SønderjyskE (10th) should be home safe in the relegation race, although the use of an illegal player by Viborg has given AGF extra points. Nevertheless, only a giant defeat (4-5 goals) against FC Midtjylland can put SønderjyskE’s survival in doubt. SønderjyskE have been a positive experience this autumn and especially their offense has been excellent (they are the 4th most scoring in 2014). Loaned striker Rubin Okotie has been outstanding, scoring 9 goals in 14 matches. FC Midtjylland should be cautious around him! SønderjyskE will be without regular left-winger Johan Absalonsen, but he is the only absence of importance. FC Midtjylland (2nd) risk losing their 2nd place and Champions League spot if they lose to SønderjyskE. Motivation should be on top, but the results in the past few matches have not impressed (losing against FC Copenhagen and Brøndby). To make matters worse FC Midtjylland are without their strong left winger Sylvester Igboun (10 goals this season). Some doubtful players (left back Juelsgaard and central midfielder Andersson) have forced FC Midtjylland to call in extra players for tomorrow. If they are not playing FC Midtjylland look vulnerable.

SønderjyskE will not suffer a big defeat here. For that they are simply too strong. SønderjyskE have only lost one home match in 2014 and they should be able to avoid another defeat here if only the motivation is right. Odds 2.05 for 1X are okay against a motivated but poor performing FC Midtjylland without star winger Igboun. A draw would be excellent for both teams so you should also consider this option alone if you are willing to take more risk.

Idea: 1 (AH +0.5) – 2.05 at Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-Brøndby

Sunday 18/5 17.00

FC Nordsjælland (6th) still possess an outside chance of obtaining the Europa League-giving 5th spot since Esbjerg in 5th has been subtracted a point. In order to pass Esbjerg they will surely need a win here. FC Nordsjælland should also be eager to say goodbye to two of the most influential people in the recent years of success. Coach Hjulmand leaves for Mainz, while captain Stokholm retires. Several players return from injuries: Martin Vingaard, Mario Ticinovic and Andreas Laudrup. Only new absence is central midfielder Lasse Petry. FC Nordsjælland are starting to get their offense to work. Especially wingers Joshua John and Uffe Bech have been in great form recently. Defensively they look a bit shaky with the young central defence of Andreas Maxsø and Pascal Gregor (both only 20 years old). Brøndby (4th) have a slim chance of getting the bronze medal, but will also need a win. Brøndby played a poor match last weekend against Randers (1-1). The absence of suspended captain Kahlenberg was evident. The playmaker returns in this match and this should have an improving effect on Brøndby. Brøndby are still without winger Andrew Hjulsager, but offensively they look solid with the likes of Makienok and Nuñez.

A match where both teams need a victory is a good start for a football match. It should be a fairly even match. FC Nordsjælland are strong at home, but Brøndby are likely to have the most support from the stands. If anything, bet on goals.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.78 at Betfair

Esbjerg-Viborg

Sunday 18/5 17.00

Esbjerg (5th) thought they secured a European spot with a win in Odense last weekend (2-1). Since Esbjerg have been accused of using a player illegally, which has costed them a point. Esbjerg will now have to obtain at least one point in this match to be certain that they will play European football next season. Although this should motivate the Esbjerg players, it could also make them nervous. Esbjerg will have to do without their midfield pacemaker Magnus Lekven, left winger Jeppe Andersen and striker Mushaga Bakenga. Important absences, particularly in the midfield. Lekven is very important for Esbjerg. With him this season: 13 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses. Without him: 0 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses! We expect normal right back Peter Ankersen to get a chance at the left wing. Look for line-ups, if this is the case there could be value on him as a goalscorer. Viborg (11th) are relegated and this match is preparation for next season. Coach Skarbalius might try to shuffle things a bit to get a look at some other players. Viborg seem keen on leaving the league with a positive experience and we do not believe that they will get hammered here. They have a decent team, especially offensively with league top goalscorer, Thomas Dalgaard, and the Brazillian playmaker Wilton Figuereido. Viborg will be without three injured midfielders, Lukas Lerager, Nicholas Gotfredsen and David Boysen. The first two would normally start in the central midfield, so both clubs are without the best players centrally.

Esbjerg have a lot at stake. With good weather and a full stadium they should dominate against Viborg, but Viborg have a potent offense and they might be able to scare Esbjerg. In our opinion Esbjerg are too big favourites here. They are naturally massive favourites to win, but without Lekven they are a different team. A draw is fine for both teams and the price is nice.

Idea: X – 5.90 at Betfair

Week 32 round-up

A minus of 3.9 units was the result of the matches last weekend. After a terrific start to 2014, we have had some rough rounds. We have been a bit unlucky though. For instance our Tip of the Week, over 2.5 goals in Brøndby-Randers ended 1-1 with Randers hitting the inside of the post in the final minute. Nevertheless, our return in 2014 is still +8.4% and 100 DKK per bet this year would have yielded you a surplus of 1062 DKK. One round is left and we hope to end this on a high note!

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2.12 units would mean that you have won 2.12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

Viborg-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 11/5 17.00

Viborg (11th) are in a position where at least one victory is needed and this is probably the best match for getting one. With free entrance to the stadium we should expect to see a team fired up in order to get it. Viborg played a fine match last round against FC Copenhagen (0-2) but failed to find the net. This was despite being without several regulars. For this match captain Mikkel Rask returns to the defence and Nicholas Gotfredsen returns to the midfield. They will be without veteran Christopher Poulsen who is suspended. Not the best position to be without a regular since FC Nordsjælland are primarily dangerous on the flanks. Viborg will have to rely on striker Thomas Dalgaard having a good day, but against a young FC Nordsjælland defence he might be the clever one. FC Nordsjælland (6th) lost 2-4 against AaB last round. It was positive that they started scoring, but the defence looked very weak. Fortunately for FC Nordsjælland they will have captain Nicolai Stokholm back in the central midfield. Without him on the pitch FC Nordsjælland have lost six matches and only won once. So naturally he is a vital player. He will replace Martin Vingaard who is suspended for this match. Offensively FC Nordsjælland will have to rely on wingers Joshua John and Uffe Bech. If they have a good day, FC Nordsjælland are a strong team. Note that FC Nordsjælland are traditionally weak when playing away games.

Both have something to play for (Viborg: survival, FC Nordsjælland: Europa League), but we suspect that Viborg will have the strongest motivation. If FC Nordsjælland approach this match with less than full concentration they will lose. With odds around 3 on the table we will take that shot.

Idea: 1 – 3.00 at Betfair

Brøndby-Randers

Sunday 11/5 17.00

Brøndby (4th) took a remarkable win against FC Midtjylland (3-1) last weekend. FC Midtjylland were playing for the league title, but Brøndby totally dominated them. This goes to show that Brøndby are highly motivated for beating FC Copenhagen in the race for 3rd place (and an outside chance of clinching the 2nd place). Brøndby will have to do this without key midfielder Thomas Kahlenberg who is suspended. Kahlenberg has huge importance for Brøndby and no other midfielder can match his vision and influence. On the positive side is the strong period of striker Nuñez who has scored four goals in the last three matches. He should cause problems in the Randers defence. Randers (8th) lost disappointingly in Odense (2-1) despite dominating the match completely. They made a poor start where they lost focus, but from then on only lack of cynicism by the strikers are to blame for the loss of points (10 shots on target: only one goal). The question is whether Randers can find motivation for this match, since they have nothing to play for. But playing at Brøndby Stadium usually has a motivating influence on visitors, so we expect to see them eager to give Brøndby problems. They will have to do this without their captain, the central midfielder Christian Keller (suspended). Keller has not had his best season and it seems like age are becoming a factor (soon 34 years). He is naturally important, but not as irreplaceable as Kahlenberg for Brøndby. Regulars Borring and Thomsen are also expected to be out (nothing new).

A motivational bet is for Brøndby to win. It will not be piece of cake in the absence of Kahlenberg, but it might contain some value though. An entertaining match with lots of goals should be even more valuable. Randers have nothing to play for so we expect them to approach this match positively.

Tip of the Week: Over 2.5 goals – 1.83 at Betfair

Idea: 1 – 1.81 at Betfair

OB-Esbjerg

Sunday 11/5 17.00

OB (7th) have an outside chance of getting a 5th spot that can bring them Europe next season, but they will have to win this match. OB have won two in a row, but have not impressed while doing so. In the last match against Randers they looked like a team desperately needing a summer break to get things straight (won 2-1) and only a strong effort by goalkeeper Toppel kept them alive. They have some quality players, but the team rarely plays a really good match. They will probable have to do without one of the quality players, winger Emil Larsen, this time (he has not been good lately though). Fortunately winger Spelmann is back from suspension, so it should not be a huge problem. Esbjerg (5th) are just a victory from clinching the European spot. So there should be no doubt about the motivation for the team that has also been the best in 2014. Esbjerg have lost once in 2014 and only allowed 8 goals in 13 matches (that is four less than the second best team). Esbjerg play some nice offensive football, but tend to get into problems when facing opponents that take a very defensive approach. This was the case last weekend against SønderjyskE (won 2-1), where they dominated the match completely, but had a hard time creating chances. This should not be a problem against OB, who are not known for their defensive abilities. Esbjerg have some injury issues though. They will do without regulars, winger Jeppe Andersen and striker Mushaga Bakenga. Both are decent players, but not key players.

It will probably be a very energetic match with two teams pushing forward to score. We expect Esbjerg to dominate the match, since they are looking strong at the moment. Bookies agree to a large extent why we only keep this bet as an idea.

Idea: 2 – 2.48 at Betfair

FC Vestsjælland-AaB

Sunday 11/5 17.00

FC Vestsjælland (9th) are practically saved after a 2-1 win against AGF. They will still need a single point to be sure and this should probably make sure that they are motivated for this match. Striker Ofere returns from suspension giving FC Vestsjælland the possibility of taking an offensive approach, but we highly doubt they will do so. Coach Ove Pedersen knows that his team’s chances are greatest against AaB if they stick to a very defensive approach. They will probably have to do without strong left back, Michael Lumb, who rarely is able to play consecutive matches. AaB (1st) could be the league champions if the results are perfect this Sunday. Naturally, they should be highly motivated for taking a win here. In the last match at FC Nordsjælland they were without key offensive players Risgård and Jönsson and even managed to win 4-2. Risgård could return for this match, which will improve AaB’s midfield remarkably. Despite AaB’s strong offense (have scored the most goals in the league this season) it will not be an easy task scoring against FC Vestsjælland. In the two previous meetings of the season they have only scored once! FC Vestsjælland have lots of physique which tends to give AaB’s small players problems.

At first sight it seems like an obvious away win, but AaB might struggle against a defence that is difficult to break up. If AaB gets the first goal quickly, then they should be home safe, but the longer the match gets the more difficult will it be for AaB to break up FC Vestsjælland’s defence. So we are a bit in doubt as to whether we should pick the draw or the 2/2 HT/FT. We decide to take second possibility but keep it as in idea only.

Idea: HT/FT 2/2 – 2.66 at Betfair

FC Midtjylland-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 11/5 17.00

FC Midtjylland (2nd) lost pole position in the race for the league title with a poor performance in Brøndby (lost 3-1). Now they will need to win this match to hang on to the hope of claiming their first title ever. Central defender Patrick Banggaard returns from suspension and he should add some stability to a defence that looked bad in Brøndby. Offensively FC Midtjylland got a strong team, but striker Morten Duncan is not really at the top of his game at the moment, which is a clear limitation. FC Midtjylland is probably also without their goalkeeper, Jonas Lössl, who got an injury in the last match. Lössl has had an outstanding season and it will not be an easy task for young Haugaard to replace him. FC Copenhagen (3rd) did not seem very motivated in Viborg, but took a late win (2-0) that gives the chances of surpassing FC Midtjylland in the table. They will need a win here though. The last win could mainly be accredited returned midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen, who did not need many minutes until his work of magic put FC Copenhagen ahead. Having him back gives FC Copenhagen an extra dimension. Jørgensen will not play this match though since he needs a rest so his injury is not returning. FC Copenhagen will have to rely on the brilliance of winger Daniel Braaten who particularly excels in big matches. FC Copenhagen will also be without defender Kris Stadsgaard and strikers Igor Vetokele and Fanendo Adi so they will not have much to offer offensively.

It is a very important match between two teams that comes from a poor display. FC Copenhagen have a lot of absences though and that makes FC Midtjylland the clear favourite in this match.

Recommendation: 1 – 2.47 at Nordicbet

AGF-SønderjyskE

Sunday 11/5 17.00

AGF (12th) are last in the league after nine losses in a row. They have no confidence and no scoring strikers. Survival seems impossible. They will surely need a win here at least. Anything else is useless. In order to get some support there is free entrance at the stadium, but playing at home has not been an advantage for AGF this season. They seem more nervous here. Things are not looking easier with the absence of central defender Anders Kure (suspended). Kure is one of the few players that show true passion for the club and the absence of his work effort could have a mental effect on the home team. Midfielder Danny Olsen might return from injury, but he has not been training for several weeks so he will probably not be able to turn things around. SønderjyskE (10th) will play a vital game for their season right here. A win should almost secure them another season in the league. A draw is not the best result since Viborg will then be able to surpass them. The win should therefore be the ambition, but they will probably approach this game a bit more cautious than AGF. SønderjyskE have been doing well this spring and especially striker Rubin Okotie adds quality, scoring 8 goals in 13 matches! Positive news is the return of winger Johan Absalonsen and striker Tommy Bechmann, who SønderjyskE missed in the last match. With them back, the team looks strong.

AGF are playing without confidence. Losing nine games in a row and only scoring two goals in the process tells the entire story. SønderjyskE on the other hand are playing with confidence and a strong offence. AGF have to be lucky to win this match and they have not been so for a very long time, so we pick the away win.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.70 at Mermaidbet

Week 31 round-up

A bitter weekend. A late goal by FC Vestsjælland ruined our last recommendation, while Randers' inability to take advantage of a massive dominance against OB killed our Tip of the Week. Randers won the shot statistic 28-12. 10 shots on target ended in only one goal. Dissapointing. Nevertheless a new round is coming up and naturally we would like to end the season in winning ways.

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

Esbjerg-SønderjyskE

Wednesday 7/5 18.00

Esbjerg (5th) got a huge win against AaB (2-0). They are still contending for the 5th place that will grant them a tour in Europe next season. Striker Martin Pusic ended his scoring drought. He is however still not the same person who started this spring by being a dominant target man. His collaboration with his partner the speedy Mushaga Bakenga still needs some work, but the SønderjyskE defence is slow and this could spell trouble. Through balls between the two defenders will be the way to go. Midfielder-turned-winger Jeppe Andersen is out just like winger Mohammed Fellah (also out last match). The replacement for Andersen will most likely be Casper Nielsen. SønderjyskE (10th) finally climbed above the relegation line after a win last week against Viborg (1-0). Now they are going to Esbjerg, a team that SønderjyskE historically have had the upper hand against. In the last five matches SønderjyskE have left the pitch with three points on four of those occasions. Unfortunately for SønderjyskE left back Daniel Christensen is suspended which could open the pitch for the Ankersen twins on Esbjerg’s right flank. Strikers Rubin Okotie, and Tommy Bechmann and winger Johan Absalonsen have not practiced this week but all have been called up to the squad. Coach Lars Søndergard may be gambling with his star players' health. A do-or-die match in Aarhus is next in the schedule. A win there could mean that they will stay in the Superliga.

What coach Søndergaard will do is hard to predict. He might just throw away this game and start with reserves so that players like Bechmann, Absalonsen and Okotie are at 100% when the visit Aarhus this Sunday. To make things worse players like Okotie, midfielder Adama Guira, back/winger Bjørn Paulsen and back Hallgrimur Jonasson are all in danger of suspension if they get booked. Nonetheless Esbjerg are still favourites. Andersen will be missed but Nielsen is an okay replacement. We would urge you not to bet until the line-ups are available.

Idea: 1 (AH -1) - 2.08 at Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-AaB

Wednesday 7/5 20.00

FC Nordsjælland (6th) still have a chance to go to Europe after a win last week in Randers (1-0). The return of offensive midfielder/striker Uffe Bech has been a blessing for the former champions. Especially when winger Joshua John is in bad form. This can be because defenders have started to read him like an open book. In this match he is up against right back for AaB Patrick Kristensen. A competent back that might be able to close John down on his own. Even though Bech is a blessing he is not a saint. They still have problems scoring. Only four goals have been scored in the last five matches. Not good enough for a team that wants to play European football. With good but equal match ups all over the pitch this match will be won in the trenches: the midfield. Unfortunately for FC Nordsjælland captain Nicolai Stokholm is suspended. His experience could have helped FC Nordsjælland in this vital match. In the five matches FC Nordsjælland have played without Stokholm they have lost four and only won once. Luckily for the hosting side, AaB (2nd) are also missing one of their important midfielders. Kasper Risgård is out and so is his obvious replacement Thomas Augustinussen. This will open up the midfield but both teams do not have the right players to take control. AaB had the same problem last week against Esbjerg. A problem Esbjerg utilised well. Esbjerg dominated the midfield and intercepted many balls and went home with three points. Striker Rasmus Jönsson is most likely out for the remainder of the season, which is a huge blow for an offensive that is now left with a one-man army in form of Lukas Spalvis.

Neither of the teams have the right personnel to take control of the midfield. And with the offensive struggles of both sides this might end up being a low scoring match. Note however that AaB have gone over 2.5 goals in 13 out of 14 away matches, so we keep stakes low.

Idea: X - 3.50 at Mermaidbet

Under 2.5 goals - 2.15 at Tipico

OB-Randers

Thursday 8/5 18.00

OB (7th) won 1-0 in AGF and are now clear of the relegation line. The victory was nothing special and had it not been for a momemt of brilliance by key players Rasmus Falk and Baskhim Kadrii it would probably have ended 0-0. OB are very dependent of how that duo plays. Unfortunately Kadrii is still suffering from the side effects of a serious knee injury and is limited to play one half per match currently. Defensively OB got a rare clean sheet,  but that should be credited the harmless AGF attack, since OB’s defense is not exactly rock solid. It was concerning to watch one of the star players, winger Emil Larsen, look so uncommitted. OB will clearly have to make some changes in the summer window if they are to climb positions in the table next season. Randers (8th) suffered a unfair defeat against FC Nordsjælland (0-1). Randers dominated the shooting statistic 21-7, but in the end FC Nordsjælland capitalized on their only shot on target. Randers failed to create very big chances, but that could be easier against OB. Randers have a nice team with some fine players, but they are very dependent of the mood of striker Ronnie Schwartz. If Schwartz has a bad day, they lack alternatives to find the net. The Swede Viktor Lundberg is clearly not the solution (4 goals in 27 matches). Randers are the league’s most difficult team to defeat at home (Randers have only lost two away matches out of 14).  The last five H2H’s have ended in three draws and two Randers wins.

Two teams stuck in no mans land without much to play for. It should be a fairly equal match. Adding that OB are nothing special at home (only four wins in 14 matches) and Randers are difficult to beat, we believe the bookies are underestimating the away team here. With the hope of Ronnie Schwartz having a good day, we select Randers (Draw No Bet) as our Tip of the Week. Unibet is offering a lot more than the rest right now, so you better hurry.

Tip of the Week: 2 (DNB) – 2.45 at Unibet

UPDATE: Odds have already dropped. 2.30 is okay though. Especially with the information that regular midfielder Martin Spelmann will be suspended for OB.

Viborg-FC Copenhagen

Thursday 8/5 18.00

Viborg (11th) are not in a good position after the slim defeat to SønderjyskE last weekend (0-1). They have a difficult remaining schedule and with their poor performances this season optimism is limited. According to our stats, Viborg have a SoTR of only 35% in 2014 compared to 38% in autumn 2013. The latter was even the worst record in 2013, so it is worrying that Viborg are even worse in 2014. But even though they are poor at defending and poor at creating chances compared to the rest of the league, they still have the league top goalscorer Thomas Dalgaard (17 goals out of Viborg’s 40). Dalgaard’s efficiency is the main reason for Viborg having a shot at survival this season. Viborg are troubled by two injuries and two suspended players. Right back Stoor is out, but his replacement Pallesen is decent. Worse is the situation in the central midfield, where the two normal starters, Lerager and Gotfredsen, both are unavailable. Obvious replacements Nagel and Rømer are not bad, but changing the entire midfield engine might give some starting problems. Another concern is the absence of suspended captain, Mikkel Rask (central defender). He will be replaced by Jacob Egeris, who has started several matches, but naturally it is a blow to lose the captain. FC Copenhagen (3rd) delivered a fine display in the second half against Brøndby (1-1), where they took control of the match. They lack something offensively though. Strikers Vetokele and Cornelius are not clicking at the moment, and the most dangerous FC Copenhagen player is in fact winger Daniel Braaten. The midfield is doing fine though, especially in taking control of the matches. The news of the possible return of playmaker Nicolai Jørgensen is vital though, since he might be able to add some much needed creativity. The previous H2H’s of the season have both ended 4-1 to FC Copenhagen.

Viborg without their central midfield against a solid FC Copenhagen that lacks offensive firepower. We expect a match with a large overweight in possesion to the away team, that should win despite of their offensive woes. Odds are nothing special though, so you should probably consider skipping this match.

Idea: 2 – 1.70 at Unibet

Brøndby-FC Midtjylland

Thursday 8/5 20.00

Brøndby (4th) are looking to establish themselves as a top club in the Danish league again. They have the fan support for it and now it seems like the squad quality is finally getting there too. In 2014 Brøndby have been among the best teams with 22 points in 12 matches. They have a strong midfield, bossed by veteran Thomas Kahlenberg. The defence is also looking solid, particularly after the return of Boulahrouz and Albrechtsen. The offense is still not at full speed, but the addition of the small striker Ariel Nuñez is starting to pay off (scored in the last two matches). FC Midtjylland (1st) are back into the championship race after AaB’s defeat against Esbjerg. FC Midtjylland will probably need to win the remaining matches, which is far from easy. They have three wins in the last four matches, but they were against the three weakest teams in the league right now. They are good however, no doubt about that. But they have some issues. Striker Morten Duncan scored in the last match, but is obviously not at his best. Defensively the central defence is not too impressive, and the absence of the suspended Patrick Banggaard is not helping. FC Midtjylland will use Francis Dickoh, who has made several mistakes in 2014, and probably also unproven youngster Sonni Nattestad. For a nervous defence, Brøndby’s stadium is not the most comforting place.

It is a match that could either explode with offensive football and lots of goals or become a tactical affair between two teams scared of losing. We believe that Brøndby have a good chance of winning. They have the home field advantage and FC Midtjylland’s defence is not unbreakable.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0) – 1.98 at Bet365

FC Vestsjælland-AGF

Thursday 8/5 20.00

FC Vestsjælland (9th) have only managed to score 28 goals in 30 matches, but are despite of this heading for survival by clinging to a very defensive approach. With at least one point here, survival should be secured. FC Vestsjælland have some issues though. Striker Ofere finally returned from injury in the last match, but he is suspended for this match. This puts FC Vestsjælland in a classic situation: without a true striker. Furthermore vital left back Michael Lumb and regular midfielders Morten Bertolt and Marc Dal Hende are doubtful for this match. On the plus side is the return of right winger Peter Nymann from suspension. Defensively nothing is changed so FC Vestsjælland should be able to stick to their strong defensive structure. AGF (12th) are in a hell hole. They need wins in the upcoming two matches, otherwise it looks like an impossible task to survive. Well, it already looks impossible since AGF are so toothless offensively that is difficult just seeing them score. They have only scored once in the last eight matches! Eight matches which they have all lost with a score of 1-16. Defensively things are improving with the return of central defender Anders Kure and goalkeeper Steffen Rasmussen (this clearly improved AGF in the last match – 0-1 against OB).

AGF will have to attack in this match, but they are simply not dangerous at the moment. Lone striker Jesper Lange has not scored in nine matches and is clearly lacking confidence and there are no alternatives in the squad. At the same time FC Vestsjælland are not looking good offensively, so this is an obvious low-scoring match.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 1.97 at Betfair

Idea: FC Vestsjælland Clean Sheet – 3.25 at Bet365

Week 30 round-up

We recorded a +0.65 unit return this weekend. It was especially our recommendations that was successful (3 out of 3). Since we expect our recommendations to have a positive payback, it is nice to witness that we are finally getting there! For 2014 we have a +17.44% return and 100 DKK on each bet would have resulted in 1884 DKK earned. There is a midweek round this week, so stay tuned, new bets will arrive shortly.

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.