Esbjerg-FC Vestsjælland preview

Sunday 31/5 16.00

The only match in the round where there really is something at stake. Esbjerg (10th) will be favourite to go down if they lose here, since they have a difficult final match in Brøndby, which they would then be forced to win. If they just get a draw here, they will survive. The players were very affected by this sudden relegation threat and played a very poor match in AaB. Esbjerg’s players are primarily technically focused and not cut out for a tough relegation battle. One of the players who have shown great passion for his local team is midfielder Casper Nielsen, but he will miss this match with an injury. This is concerning, since individual skills is not the most important here: it is more about a will to win, and Esbjerg’s players do not show that they have this in the necessary scale. However, the stadium will be packed and with some home support, Esbjerg could get wings. Strong right back Ryan Laursen returns from a ban. FC Vestsjælland (11th) have to win this match, otherwise their season is over. They have looked strong and focused during the past weeks and they have impressed by taking two wins late in the recent matches. FC Vestsjælland suffered in the start of 2015 due to many new signings, but they seem to have adjusted now and they have started to look like a decent Superliga team. Midfielders Osama Akharraz and Marc Rochester miss the match with injury, while captain Henrik Madsen is doubtful. Only Madsen is important, but even if he is out they have a solid team.

If the match was based only on footballing skills, Esbjerg were clear favorites. However, given the importance of the match, the mental state is also very important. FC Vestsjælland have fighting an uphill battle for a long time and they have showed great mental strength. This will be a huge advantage for them here, and it would not be any surprise if they took the win here. The bookies are overrating Esbjerg, and there is clear value in the away win. Remember that draw would not be enough for FC Vestsjælland so they will gamble for the win.

Recommendation: 2 – 3.60 at Unibet