We have used the
weekend of no Superliga football to compile this overview of the Superliga
teams and our assessment of their strength. We use a range of statistical
measures for which you can see an explanation below. This overview also
contains some bets on league positions and league top goalscorer. There should
be fine value a few places. So read and let us convince you.
We use the following statistical
measures:
TSR,
Total Shots Ratio, is a team’s share of
the total shots in their matches. This is defined as:
TSR=Total shots by team/Total shots by
team and opponent
SoTR, Shots on Target Ratio, is a team’s share of the total
shots on target in their matches. This is defined as:
SoTR=Total shots on target by
team/Total shots on target by team and opponent
PDO,
is a measure from hockey, that has been
applied to football. Our use of it is to evaluate how lucky/unlucky a team has
been during the season. PDO is defined as:
PDO=1000x(Saving%+Scoring%).
The teams (sorted by current position in the table)
1. FC Midtjylland (12 points)
SoTR: 63.0% (1st)
TSR: 56.5% (3rd)
PDO: 1024 (4th)
Ball possession: 50.8% (7th)
Goals scored: 11
Goals conceded: 6
FC Midtjylland
are the strongest team in the league at dominating their opponent in terms of
shots on target. Based on the first five games, they are deservedly in the
lead. They look like a prime candidate for the title due to their very strong
midfield with the speedy wingers Pione Sisto and Sylvester Igboun plus
intelligent veterans in Jakob Poulsen and Petter Andersson. Their main weakness
is the backline where the standard of the current backs is low (remember, right
back Kristian Bak is injured). The latest news of a serious injury for normal
lone striker Morten Duncan Rasmusssen is bad news for the title ambitions.
Alternative Paul Onuachu (who is one of the tallest footballers you will see)
has some skills but clearly lacks some experience.
Our guess: 1st
position – okay, it is a clear minus that they will be without Morten Duncan
Rasmussen and Kristian Bak for the upcoming months. But they are still a strong
team and they have a good initial advantage compared to the others. Furthermore, they
are very likely not to be troubled by European matches in autumn (unless they
can rebound after a 4-1 loss in Panathinaikos).
Top goalscorer:
Morten Duncan Rasmussen is still the main candidate here, but he will probably not be a
candidate for the league top goalscorer due to the injury.
2.
Hobro (10 points)
SoTR: 46.8% (8th)
TSR: 40.7% (12th)
PDO: 1244 (1st)
Ball possession: 36.6% (12th)
Goals scored: 8
Goals conceded: 3
Hobro have been a major surprise. No one
expected them to win against Brøndby and FC Copenhagen, but they did and now
they are a part of the top. Their fundamental stats are not good though. They
are at the bottom in dominating their matches in terms of creating chances.
Their PDO is also unsustainable high, indicating that they have been quite
lucky so far. It is worth noting that their schedule has been pretty difficult
until now, so this is partly the reason for the stats. The stats do tell some
truth though. Hobro are not strong enough to maintain a position in the top.
They have a good team spirit and a very skilled offensive player in Antipas.
However, it is clear that they are very dependent on Antipas. If he has a bad
day, the team is likely to struggle.
Our guess: 11th position – they have got a
good start, but they have also been amazingly efficient. It is still early in
the season and the relegation line is not far away.
Top goalscorer: Mads Hvilsom has scored
four goals so far. Amazing. He will probably remain Hobro’s top goalscorer
throughout the season, but we doubt he will have any chance of becoming league
top goalscorer.
3.
FC Nordsjælland (10 points)
SoTR: 56.3% (2nd)
TSR: 52.7% (5th)
PDO: 1000 (7th)
Ball possession: 54.2% (5th)
Goals scored: 9
Goals conceded: 7
The new coach Olafur Kristjansson has done
outstandingly so far. He has added a good mentality to FC Nordsjælland that has
succeeded in coming back from a threatening defeat in three matches. FC Nordsjælland
have some of the best wingers in the league in Uffe Bech and Joshua John. We
doubt they will be able to keep Bech for the season (if he stays fit). They
lack a good striker with neither Morten Nordstrand nor Kristian Lindberg
impressing (new striker will arrive in winter transfer window). Midfield is
good for matches where they dominate possession, but lack some bite when they
are the underdog. The defense is the Achilles heel with central defenders Ivan
Runje and Pascal Gregor lacking quality (Runje in terms of physique and Gregor
in terms of experience).
Our guess: 5th – they have had a good start
and should have quality to maintain a top half finish, especially if they
retain Bech and John.
Top goalscorer: Bech is the current top
goalscorer, but the question is whether he will stay for the entire season. Our guess for a top goalscorer is Joshua John.
4.
Randers (9 points)
SoTR: 44.9% (9th)
TSR: 51.3% (6th)
PDO: 1005 (6th)
Ball possession: 55.0% (3rd)
Goals scored: 5
Goals conceded: 6
Randers were predicted a poor season after
losing striker Ronnie Schwartz in the transfer window. The first period with
Schwartz has not indicated that they miss him severely. Okay, Randers maybe
lack some power offensively, but they are still a strong team with physique and
routine. If the newly signed striker Mikael Ishak is a hit, Randers could be
heading for a good season. They do lack some individual quality, why they will
not have a chance to finish in the top.
Our guess: 7th - Randers are the most
probable mid-table finish of the season. They are too strong to get into
relegation problems, but not strong enough to play for medals.
Top goalscorer: Lundberg, Ishak and Fall
compete for the two striker positions. We have a feeling that the new guy Ishak
might become the strongest weapon.
5.
FC Vestsjælland (7 points)
SoTR: 44.4% (10th)
TSR: 42.5% (9th)
PDO: 1170 (3rd)
Ball possession: 44.8% (9th)
Goals scored: 9
Goals conceded: 7
Last season FC Vestsjælland were a very
grey team. This season, under the realm of new head coach Michael Hansen, some
colours have started to emerge. FC Vestsjælland are now more than a team that
just defends. They still have the strong physique and work rate, but have added
strong passing/crossing skills with the addition of winger Anders Due.
Furthermore, it seems like striker Rasmus Festersen is really improving due to
Hansen’s more offensive tactics. They are however still a team without the
great solo player and they pretty much falls into the same category as Randers. They
have been a little lucky so far and should drop in the standings.
Our guess: 9th – same story as Randers –
maybe just a bit weaker, but should not get into relegation problems as long as
they do not run into many injuries (limited squad depth).
Top goalscorer: Rasmus Festersen is our
main candidate for the top goalscorer title, although Dennis Sørensen is a
veteran that is always good for some goals throughout a season.
6.
Brøndby (7 points)
SoTR: 48.9% (7th)
TSR: 55.9% (4th)
PDO: 1012 (5th)
Ball possession: 61.0% (1st)
Goals scored: 6
Goals conceded: 6
Brøndby are not as dominant in the stats as
they were the last season (one reason could be that the shooting happy Antipas
left). They have struggled a bit initially and we believe that is partly due to
a lack of continuity offensively (injuries). They are strong offensively and
when players like Simon Makienok, Alexander Szymanowski and Johan Elmander get
some games together we believe they will be a very dangerous trio. However,
Brøndby are not very good defensively. The central defence is not very good,
why Brøndby are very likely to lose games where they are not dominating
possession.
Our guess: 3rd – if they manage to keep
Makienok, we believe that Brøndby’s strong offense will lead to a good position and
possibly a medal.
Top goalscorer: If Simon Makienok stays in
the club (and stays fit) he is an almost certain top goalscorer since Brøndby
are playing with a lone striker. He is also a good candidate for the league top
goalscorer title due to him being a lone striker in an offensively strong team.
7.
AaB (6 points)
SoTR: 37.8% (12th)
TSR: 40.9% (10th)
PDO: 1183 (2nd)
Ball possession: 54.2% (5th)
Goals scored: 5
Goals conceded: 4
The defending champions have had a rough
start to the season. According to the stats they have actually been quite
lucky. They are the team with the fewest shots on target (only 14 in 5
matches!). A major reason for this is the poor state of the midfield during the
first matches. The loss of the creative force Kasper Kusk (sold) and injuries to
Nicolaj Thomsen, Rasmus Würtz and Kasper Risgård proved vital. Fortunately, the
injured players are now back, and AaB (and the stats) should improve from now
on. As striker Nicklas Helenius improves his form, AaB should also score more goals.
A minus is that AaB will have to play European football this autumn. They lack
squad depth (AaB have many long term injuries for rotation players), and this
will probably affect them in the league.
Our guess:
4th – when all players are fit, AaB are among the strongest in the
league. But the many matches in autumn are likely to cause injuries and
fatigue, so we believe that a spot just outside the podium is the most likely
for AaB.
Top goalscorer: Anders K. Jacobsen has
looked very strong so far, but Nicklas Helenius is more of a goal getter. We
believe he will outperform Jacobsen over the course of a season.
8.
OB (5 points)
SoTR: 52.9% (4th)
TSR: 48.1% (7th)
PDO: 931 (8th)
Ball possession: 46.8% (8th)
Goals scored: 6
Goals conceded: 7
OB have visually been performing quite bad
so far. According to the stats it looks a bit better. They have some brilliant
players in wingers Emil Larsen and Rasmus Falk, but the rest are quite average.
OB have been in acute need of a strong striker, but the addition of Georgian striker Vladimir Dvalishvili could be the solution (at least OB fans hope so). OB are a strong counter attacking team,
but they are not very good when they dominate possession.
Our guess: 8th - A
mid-table finish is the maximum this season. Worst case is relegation, but the
quality of the team should be too strong even though it seems like the players
are easily affected if things turn bad.
Top goalscorer:
Rasmus Falk is our best guess. He is a local boy with great passion for the
team. His offensive abilities will undoubtedly result in some goals during the
season. The unknown, Dvalishvili, is our alternative.
9.
SønderjyskE (5 points)
SoTR: 50.0% (6th)
TSR: 40.7% (11th)
PDO: 909 (9th)
Ball possession: 41.2% (11th)
Goals scored: 4
Goals conceded: 6
The stats tell that SønderjyskE belong in
the lower half of the table. We believe it too be a correct assessment,
although SønderjyskE should improve when veterans Tommy Bechmann, Daniel Jensen
and Johan Absalonsen return to full fitness. SønderjyskE made a poor striker swap
by getting Bojan Golubovic and losing Rubin Okotie (who is continuing to score
goals in 1860 München). Golubovic is not as speedy as Okotie and this is
important since SønderjyskE are a team largely reliable on counters. If the
injury problems continue in SønderjyskE, relegation is a clear threat.
SønderjyskE have an excellent mentality though, so they are not falling apart
just because they have had a few poor matches.
Our guess: 10th – SønderjyskE have not
covered the gap in attack sufficiently, why the season could be difficult: you
need goals to win matches. They are strong defensively and have a good
mentality so we believe they will survive.
Top goalscorer: Bojan Golubovic is
SønderjyskE’s choice as a main striker and with the eternal fitness problems of
Tommy Bechmann, Golubovic will probably be the top goalscorer. However, we
doubt he will score a two-digit amount of goals.
10.
FC Copenhagen (5 points)
SoTR: 52.1% (5th)
TSR: 64.1% (1st)
PDO: 852 (11th)
Ball possession: 56.8% (2nd)
Goals scored: 5
Goals conceded: 8
It has been a poor start to the season for
FC Copenhagen. The stats are good though. FC Copenhagen are dominating their
matches, but has not really had a fair pay-off. The quality of the squad is
good. Especially the midfield is superior, although the current injury of
Nicolai Jørgensen is a set back. In attack, FC Copenhagen are very dependent on
the current form of Andreas Cornelius. Fortunately, Cornelius seems to be on the
way back to old form. The defense has had some initial problems, but based on
the resume of the players (several internationals) this should be a momentary
thing. They will play European football in autumn, which could have a negative
league impact despite of the squad's decent width.
Our guess: 2nd – FC Copenhagen are already
7 points behind FC Midtjylland and we believe it will be a tough task to catch
up. The European matches and the current absence of Nicolai Jørgensen are the
factors that tip the favourite role to FC Midtjylland. But let’s see if FC
Copenhagen sign a quality player before the transfer window closes.
Top goalscorer: Andreas Cornelius. He is
the main threat of FC Copenhagen and a sure player in the line-up. He is also
the main favourite for taking the league top goalscorer title.
11.
Esbjerg (3 points)
SoTR: 53.1% (3rd)
TSR: 60.5% (2nd)
PDO: 893 (10th)
Ball possession: 54.4% (4th)
Goals scored: 4
Goals conceded: 6
Esbjerg are really not getting the full out
of their potential. They could have had maximum points currently, but they have
simply been too poor in finishing. They are creating a lot of chances. European
qualification matches have stressed them, but since they were eliminated (very
unfortunate) they should be fully fit for league matches. They have a strong
midfield and a quality striker in Martin Pusic (will also be interesting to see
the effect of new offensive player Robin Söder). The defense is strong, but has
an unfortunate tendency to commit stupid and very costly mistakes.
Our guess: 6th - Esbjerg should advance,
but the poor start means that they will probably not be able to fight for
medals. Too bad- the team is great when the preferred eleven are fit.
Top goalscorer: Martin Pusic. He is the only real goalscoring threat in Esbjerg. A very strong player with a nice shot and great passion.
12.
Silkeborg (2 points)
SoTR: 43.2% (11th)
TSR: 43.6% (8th)
PDO: 714 (12th)
Ball possession: 44.2% (10th)
Goals scored: 0
Goals conceded: 6
Goals scored: 0. That statistic is the main
problem for Silkeborg. The offensive players were strong last year in the
Danish 1st Division, but they have had a difficult start in the best league. It
is clear that it has become a confidence issue. The team as so is decent (the
SoTR and TSR stats are not very bad). The defense is okay, the midfield is okay
and the attack is okay. And maybe this is just the problem, Silkeborg lack
areas where they are more than just okay.
Our guess: 12th – Silkeborg have had a poor
start and even though we believe that their average points per game will rise,
it will not be enough to save them.
Top goalscorer: Morten Beck Andersen is
playing the lone striker position and should start scoring at some point.
Betting
recommendations on league position markets:
Winner:
FC Midtjylland – 3.25 at Unibet (fine price – FCM
should have at least 33% chance of winning)
Winner
at winter break: FC Midtjylland – 2.25 at Bet25 (FC
Midtjylland have a good margin to main threats (who also face an autumn with
Europa League group stage))
To
relegate: Hobro – 2.55 at Danske Spil (would still
give Hobro more than 40% chance of relegation)
League
top goalscorer (probability)
Here is our list of possible league top
goalscorers and our assessment of the probability of that outcome.
Andreas Cornelius, FC Copenhagen (18%)
·
Current: 3 goals – main striker
for the team expected to score most goals
Simon Makienok, Brøndby (10%)
·
Current: 3 goals – lone striker
for offensively strong Brøndby, but risk of transfer
Martin Pusic, Esbjerg (9%)
·
Current: 3 goals – the only guy
who can score for a very chance producing Esbjerg and no current transfer
rumours
Nicklas Helenius, AaB (6%)
·
Current: 2 goals – if he gets
into shape, he will be dangerous, but AaB normally plays with two strong
attackers so he will have to share the goals
Anders K. Jacobsen, AaB (4%)
·
Current: 1 goal – same
situation as Helenius, just one goal shorter
Uffe Bech, FC Nordsjælland (4%)
·
Current: 4 goals – he is a
winger, has a history of injuries and are the centre of transfer rumours:
unlikely to keep up scoring average
Joshua John, FC Nordsjælland (3%)
·
Current: 2 goals – he is also a
winger, but more likely to play many games this season. Always a threat with
his Robben move, but unlikely to end as a top goalscorer
Mads Hvilsom, Hobro (5%)
·
Current: 4 goals – has had a
great start, but it looks like Hobro intend to use him as winger. Will be
difficult to keep very high scoring average.
Morten Duncan Rasmussen, FC Midtjylland (4%)
·
Current: 2 goals – looks like
Duncan will miss at least five matches with an injury, which will leave him
behind competitors. Otherwise the obvious choice due to FC Midtjylland playing
with a lone striker.
Sylvester Igboun, FC Midtjylland (3%)
·
Current: 2 goals – strong
winger, but as a winger it will be difficult to beat true strikers.
The rest: 33%
Betting
recommendations on league top goalscorer:
Martin
Pusic – 15.00 at Unibet
Andreas
Cornelius – 6.00 at Unibet
Consider combining the two bets (71.4% of
stakes on Cornelius and 28.6% of stakes on Pusic and Makienok). The odds is 4.29 – (great value: 116% bet value according to our estimation). If you are
not a customer at Unibet, please use our links to sign up.
