AaB-FC Vestsjælland

Sunday 2/3 15.00

AaB (2nd) are starting to look like a proper contender for the league title. They had a match in the cup tournament midweek and they annihilated AGF away. 4-1 was almost too low a score. Last weekend they almost stole the three points from Brøndby. A goal in stoppage time one minute after AaB took the lead turned the game to a draw. This time they are playing at home and for the best home team in the league it is a big advantage. They have yet to lose a match at Nordjyske Arena (10 matches) and their SoTR is fourth best at 59%. Defender Kenneth Petersen is suspended and it will be a blow for the defence. His replacement could be midfielder Thomas Augustinussen or defender Kasper Pedersen. FC Vestsjælland (11th) was awful last weekend versus SønderjyskE. Coach Ove Pedersen said afterwards that it was the worst match they have ever played during his stint there. They had the most shots on target after a decent first half but SønderjyskE were extremely efficient. The defence are not very resistant towards the counter attack and with the two gifted midfielders Kasper Kusk and Nicolaj Thomsen FC Vestsjælland could be in trouble. With no suspensions they are all set. There is no news on whether regular defender Oliver Lund is back after injury.

AaB’s home field stats are too impressive to ignore. Their SoTR are quite well and with possibilities for counter attacks FC Vestsjælland could be in over their head.

Idea: 1 – 1.65 at Tipico

FC Copenhagen-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 2/3 19.00

Even though AaB are placed somewhere in between this is regarded as a match between the two main candidates for the championship title. FC Copenhagen (3rd) are favourites for the match. They did not get the best start though with 1-1 at AGF. FC Copenhagen dominated the match but were largely inefficient in their shooting. Fortunately returned striker Cornelius had one efficient moment, which gave FC Copenhagen a goal, and probably gave Cornelius some confidence after a terrible experience in Cardiff in autumn. Cornelius physical presence will be a challenge for every team in the league, but against strong players like Sviatchenko and Banggaard his strength might not be as big an advantage as usual. Fortunately FC Copenhagen have a speedy alternative in Vetokele which will be difficult to handle for FC Midtjylland’s bit clumsy backline. FC Copenhagen looked solid at the back against AGF. Offensively they missed key midfielder Jørgensen who might be ready for this match though. FC Midtjylland (1st) started off poorly in Odense, but actually improved in the second half where they dominated the match. Nevertheless, OB scored on a brilliant shot from the distance at the very end to give FCM a heart-breaking loss (2-1). FC Midtjylland are suffering from the absence of several key players, especially midfieders: Larsen, Igboun, Hedinsson and Andersson. This is not good for their title chances. Fortunately striker Duncan looks as sharp as in the autumn and seems like the only threat for Dalgaard in the run for top scoring title.

FC Copenhagen are a strong home team and their squad looks better at the moment. We take the home win. Tipico is offering odds above the rest of the market. Grab it before it is gone!

Recommendation: 1 – 1.80 at Tipico

Randers-Brøndby

Sunday 2/3 17.00

Randers (6th) got a decent start to the season with 1-1 in Viborg in an even match. Randers did not bring anything impressive in a match plagued by poor passing. Randers were without four key players in the last match, their injured top scorer Schwartz, winger Kamper, left back Tamboura and central defender Fenger. Kamper has a small chance of returning although Randers might prefer starting the fit Fisker. Fenger is actually not injured but surprisingly regarded as third choice after the slow duo of Sørensen and Agesen. Their slowness ended up costing Randers a goal in the last match. Randers look to start with a physically strong team, but they clearly lack some qualities with regards to speed and technique. Brøndby (4th) opened the season with an entertaining 2-2 against AaB. Brøndby should have won the match, but ended up being lucky with the draw after conceding an own goal to 1-2 in 89th minute. Luckily their preferred striker Makienok was fit enough to play the last 20 minutes and his late assist to Kahlenberg ended up saving Brøndby. Unfortunately Makienok is far from full match fitness and will be placed on the bench yet again in Randers. Brøndby’s defence looked a bit sketchy against AaB. It was unsurprising since they were without their four normal defensive starters. They should all be ready for this match. Most important is the return of Boulahrouz, in the five matches with him on the pitch, Brøndby have only conceded one goal.

Randers can pass Brøndby with a win and enter the race for European spots. However we do not believe that their current squad is good enough to merit such a performance. The absence of especially Schwartz leaves them weak. Brøndby will yet again have a solid backline with the return of their starters and we doubt they will be put under severe pressure. The last three H2H’s have gone under 2.5 goals.

Ideas: Under 2.5 – 1.82 at Nordicbet

2 (AH -0.25) – 2.05 at Bet365

FC Nordsjælland-Viborg

Friday 28/2 18.30

FC Nordsjælland (7th) were one of the main disappointment in the first round. They lost 2-1 in Esbjerg, but the loss could easily have been bigger. FC Nordsjælland suffered from the absence of striker Nordstrand (got injured in last training) and the solution with midfielder Christiansen on top did not work. The play improved when striker Aabech entered after an hour. Aabech is likely to start in this match if Nordstrand is still unavailable (unfortunately we have not been able to get any information regarding his status). One of the advantages for FC Nordsjælland is that they return to their own stadium with artificial grass. On that surface FC Nordsjælland have not lost in six consecutive matches. Viborg (10th) are another story when being at foreign grass. They possess the league’s by far lowest away SoTR at 31% and they have not won in six consecutive away matches. Viborg had a decent start in a fairly even match against Randers (1-1). Dalgaard, the efficient league top scorer, were unsurprisingly the goal scorer. Viborg will need Dalgaard to have another efficient day since they are likely to be put under severe pressure. In the last two away matches (AaB and FC Copenhagen) Viborg have only managed to get one shot on target. But these matches were in the autumn and a lot have changed in Viborg. They look stronger with the addition of winger Boysen, although he will have a difficult task dribbling past the speedy back Stryger Larsen. The jury is still out on the change of management. New head coach Skarbalius does not seem to have made any radical changes to Viborg’s style though.

We believe that FC Nordsjælland will dominate this match. Especially the mismatch between winger John and right back Pallesen should be worrying for Viborg fans. FC Nordsjællands winning chances are however correlated with the participation of the preferred striker Nordstrand. If he is playing 1.67 for home win should be value (called up squad will reveal it tomorrow). Otherwise we would skip the match.

Idea: 1 – 1.67 at Mermaidbet

UPDATE: Nordstrand not in the list of called up players. No bet for us.

Esbjerg fB-OB

Sunday 2/3 13.00

Last week we wrote, ”They signed striker Martin Pusic from Brann Bergen. His stats tell us that he is probably not the saint Esbjerg needs.” We were so wrong. After the first two matches (including the match against Fiorentina) he has been praised in the media and there is a good reason for that. He may not have that individual poise to make one dribble around an opponent and put the ball in the back of the net. But his strength is quite impressive and he can hold off a defender. During last week’s match against FC Nordsjælland, Pusic and Mushaga Bakenga complimented each other well where Pusic was the strong target man and Bakenga was the small fast forward. The balance between defence and offence has been one of the reasons that Esbjerg’s autumn was dismal. Midfielder Magnus Lekven has returned after a long injury and he has stabilised the centre of the pitch. Offensive midfielder Mohammed Fellah is out due to the injury he sustained in the match versus FC Nordjsælland. Bakenga could start along side Pusic. At the other end of the pitch Martin Dubravka showed why Esbjerg purchase him instead of waiting for his contract to expire. His reflexes were remarkable and even though he was implemented in the conceded goal he made a decent impression. Defender Kian Hansen will return from suspension and it will help the defence. OB (5th) got the upper hand vs. FC Midtjylland. They played well in the first half but during the second FC Midtjylland got more possession and bigger chances. In the end it looked like a draw but midfielder Ari Skulason’s shot hit the upright and the ball went in just as stoppage time started. The good news for OB is that winger Emil Larsen most likely will be ready for this match. Last time these two squads played Larsen played well and topped it of with a solo goal where he turned international Peter Ankersen and outsprinted him but due to the injury he might not be in fit enough to do it again. Unfortunately striker Mustafa Abdellaoue had to be substituted due to an injury. He played for the reserves in midweek so he might be on the bench.

Esbjerg needed a saint, and according to the media they found him. Pusic could be a possible quality signing for the hard tested Esbjerg squad. The advantage of home field will be in play. Esbjerg’s home SoTR of 64% is the best in the league. The whole team reminisced of that we saw at the start of the season and we believe they will come out on top in this match up.

Tip of the Week: 1 - 2.45 at Mermaidbet

SønderjyskE-AGF

Saturday 1/3 17.00

SønderjyskE (12th) got a brilliant start to 2014 with a 4-0 win in Slagelse (against FC Vestsjælland). SønderjyskE were actually a bit lucky since FC Vestsjælland dominated the match for the first 50 minutes, but SønderjyskE were efficient and took an early lead (shots on target: SønderjyskE had 5, FCV 8). In the last 40 minutes SønderjyskE proved what a strong counter attacking team they are when all players are fit. The offensive newcomers, striker Okotie (2 goals) and Songani (1 goal), had a splendid day and look like quality additions. Okotie is physically strong while Songani is speedy and apparently also possess a good kick. The return of striker Bechmann to fully fitness after an autumn plagued by injuries was also important. He scored once. Unfortunately he is unavailable for this match, but Daniel Jensen will return from suspension and probably take Bechmann’s spot as a offensive midfielder. AGF (8th) are a team in crisis, both on and off the pitch. Off the pitch coach Sørensen got unpopular by criticising out the injured team captain and the squad harmony seems low. On the pitch where AGF were lucky with a 1-1 against FC Copenhagen, but got treated more fairly in the 1-4 loss at home to AaB in the cup this Wednesday. AGF lack a quality striker after the retirement of Søren Larsen and it is difficult to see where their scoring will come from. And their play in general is without a target.

So much negative talk about AGF will surely affect them. On the other hand SønderjyskE should be brimming with confidence after their 4-0 win in Slagelse. With two teams at each end of the momentum scale and a fairly even ball game according to the bookies, we decide to disagree and we recommend a SønderjyskE home win. We fear a boring draw, so we insure ourselves from the draw.

Recommendation: 1 (Draw No Bet) - 1.92 at Unibet

UPDATE: The defeat in the cup and the negative publicity were too much for the AGF board who fired coach Sørensen Wednesday night. The young and unproven assistant Fredberg will be the new guy in charge. Although several players will be fond of the absence of the disciplined climate that Sørensen's reign brought, empirics tell that firing a coach is rarely effective (especially in following away matches). So our opinion is that this only improves our bet.

Week 19 round-up

Martin Pusic was the only bright spot in our opening weekend of 2014. Pusic was a good #Twitbets netting odds 4.00. Unfortunately our match bets where not exactly spot on. Two late goals ruined our bets for FC Copenhagen and draw in Odense, while we were one goal short in Viborg and far off in Slagelse (FCV-SJE 0-4). A first round is always difficult since you never know what to put into the friendlies. With a stronger feeling of the teams strength we hope that our bets will be better starting from next weekend!

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

#Twitbets: list of our season bets from Twitter

In order to give some overview over the season bets we have posted this winter on Twitter (@SuperligaBets), we have collected them here with our argument at the time. We made 6 bets and what have since happened to the odds:

Odds rise: 0

Odds the same: 1

Odds drop: 4

Odds removed: 1

Two of the bets still contain a lot of value (bets mentioned first below). So here is the list. We hope you follow us for more quality picks during the season!

FC Nordsjælland Top Goalscorer 2013/2014

Bet: Joshua John

Odds: 2.30 at Betsafe (2.30 still available!)

Argument:

John leads by 2 goals to only rival Nordstrand. 

Scoring avg. last 2 seasons: 

John: 1 goal per 172 mins 

Nordstrand: 199 mins (+injury-prone)

CV: 55%

Superliga 2013/2014 H2H

Bet: AGF-AaB 2

Odds: 1.50 at Tipico (1.45 still available: plenty of value!)

Argument:

AaB have a 10 point lead before last 15 games. Their team look stronger. AGF with troubling situation in attack (no fit striker).

CV: 80%

Superliga 2013/2014 H2H Most goals

Bet: Søren Larsen - Joshua John 2

Odds: 1.77 at Nordicbet (not online anymore since Larsen has decided to retire)

Argument:

Larsen just announced that he fears he has played his last match due to injury. John is only one goal behind. Should be able to pass Larsen.

Superliga 2013/2014 H2H

Bet: FC Midtjylland-AaB 1

Odds 1.65 at Betsafe (1.40 now – no value left)

Argument:

FCM have 4-point lead. AaB are weaker than in autumn with no Nielsen in defence. FCM are at around same level. CV: 70%. Nordicbet offers 1.37 for same bet

Superliga 2013/2014 H2H

Bet: Viborg-FC Vestsjælland 2

Odds 1.80 at Tipico (now 1.50 – no value left)

Argument:

2 teams are equal (21 points). FCV have just bought quality. Viborg had poorest SoTR this autumn and no expectation of them buying improvements (comment: they actually did – both still valuable bet). CV: 60%.

Superliga Top Goalscorer 2013/2014

Bet: T. Dalgaard, Viborg

Odds 5.00 at Betsafe (now 2.60 – actually still some value left according to our CV)

Argument:

Dalgaard leads the scoring charts with 3 goals. 15 games left. Risk: getting sold (our opinion: 30% risk). If he stays: 50% chance of win.

Esbjerg-FC Nordsjælland

Monday 24/02 19.00

The packed schedule of EfB (11th) in autumn may be the reason they are below the relegation line. Last year they were there as well but pulled off an amazing come back and finished 4th and won the cup. They need another one this spring. The game has been good which is evident in their SoTR at 58%. They are second best in the league according to this metric. The paradox of being high in SoTR and not in league placement is due to the fact that they cannot score. That is why they signed striker Martin Pusic from Brann Bergen. His stats tell us that he is probably not the saint Esbjerg needs. He only scored nine goals in 27 league appearances. With goalkeeper Frederik Rønnow out with an injury, newcomer Martin Dubravka will start. He has showed some of his skills in the friendlies during the winter break. Rønnow’s total saving percentage was the lowest in the league at 64% so it could be a good signing. Talismanic midfielder Magnus Lekven was most of the late autumn, but he is back now. He could stabilise the defence but that is only one part of the problem for Esbjerg. Defender and vice captain Kian Hansen is suspended and other central defence regular Askou is injured. FC Nordsjælland (6th) ended the autumn on a decent note. They started getting some momentum and wintered at the middle of the table. The infirmary, which was the main reason for the poor results during autumn, is not as crowded as it was at the start of the season. Midfielder Anders Christiansen are out because of an injury but the starting 11 will be close to the best starting 11 that coach Kasper Hjulmand can play. During the winter friendlies Hjulmand has started with David Jensen at the goal instead of Martin Hansen. He has hinted that Jensen also will start in the league as well. This is not an unnatural selection from Hjulmand since Hansen has not been outstanding.

With such a long winter break many teams take this opportunity to start anew. For some like Esbjerg who are in dire need of a clean slate the winter break came at a good time. The only problem for Esbjerg is that they still need that striker who can score 15 goals per season. With a closer-to-empty infirmary FC Nordsjælland could get back on track this weekend. Add to this that Esbjerg have a massive Europa League match in midweek against Fiorentina that might have the players primary focus.

Idea: 2 - 2.92 at Betfair

Team info:

Esbjerg:

Autumn:

Position: 11th

Points: 19

SoTR: 58,06% (2nd)

PDO: 910

Important transfers:

In:
Martin Dúbravka (MSK Zilina)

Michael Jakobsen (FC Nordsjælland)

Martin Pusic (Brann Bergen)

Out:

Pape Pate Diouf (end of loan, FC Copenhagen)

Typical line-up in autumn:

Rønnow; Knudsen, Hansen, Askou, P. Ankersen; Lyng, Andreasen, Lekven, J. Ankersen; van Buren, Diouf

Expected line-up in spring:

Dúbravka; Knudsen, Hansen, Jakobsen, P. Ankersen; Lyng, Andreasen, Lekven, J. Ankersen; Fellah, Pusic

FC Nordsjælland:

Autumn:

Position: 6th

Points: 23

SoTR: 50,81% (6th)

PDO: 938

Important transfers:

In:
-

Out:

Michael Jakobsen (Esbjerg)

Typical line-up in autumn:

Hansen; Mtiliga, Jakobsen, Gregor, Stryger; Stokholm, Christiansen; John, Vingaard, Ticinovic; Nordstrand

Expected line-up in spring:

Hansen; Mtiliga, Runje, Gregor, Stryger; Stokholm, Christiansen; John, Vingaard, Ticinovic; Nordstrand

OB-FC Midtjylland

Saturday 22/02 17.00

OB (7th) have played some entertaining matches this season. With 54 goals in their 18 matches there are on average three goals per match they play. The only bad thing is that 26 goals have been conceded. Another thing that is bad for OB is that winger Emil Larsen is out injured and striker Mustafa Abdellaoue is doubtful. Larsen is one of OB’s stars and he will be absent for about 4-5 weeks. Abdellaoue finished strong this autumn and is a way better goal getter than the other strikers Morten Skoubo and Darko Bodul. In the friendlies set pieces has been a worry for coach Troels Bech: three goals were conceded in a match. All eyes are on FC Midtjylland (1st) that are out to secure their first ever league title. They have lost midfielders Olsen and Curth during the transfer window, but have signed Femi and Poulsen instead. It looks like an improvement, but neither Femi nor Poulsen have played for a long time, so do not be surprised if FC Midtjylland starts a bit rusty. Coach Glen Riddersholm should actually have a headache since many players are injured and several of them are from the starting 11. Defender and captain Kristian Bak was injured during a friendly against Spartak Moscow. Winger Pione Sisto is doubtful but will probably not play the entire match and midfielder Petter Andersson is out and will return during March. Winger Sylvester Igboun (6 goals) is suspended. Not a good starting point.

Both teams have injuries for key players. The injury list is longer at FC Midtjylland and with a difficult away match it could be a problem. But with OB’s instability at the back at set pieces something at which FC Midtjylland are strong this could turn out to be an even match.

Idea: X - 3.45 at Mermaidbet

UPDATE: Larsen in surprise call-up for OB. But he has not been a part of the last preparation matches, so we doubt he will make an impact just yet (will probably only get a few minutes).

Team info:

OB:

Autumn:

Position: 7th

Points: 22

SoTR: 48,15% (7th)

PDO: 1037

Important transfers:

In:
Azer Busuladzic (Vejle)

Out:

-

Typical line-up in autumn:

Toppel; Diarra, K. Larsen, Christensen, Ruud; E. Larsen, Skulason, Spelmann, Falk; Skoubo, Bodul

Expected line-up in spring:

Toppel; Diarra, K. Larsen, Høegh, Ruud; E. Larsen, Skulason, Spelmann, Falk; Skoubo, Abdellaoue

Note: Emil Larsen will probably miss the first 4-5 rounds with an injury. Young winger Busuladzic might be his replacement.

FC Midtjylland:

Autumn:

Position: 1st

Points: 36

SoTR: 57,63% (3rd)

PDO: 1100

Important transfers:

In:
Jakob Poulsen (Monaco)

Francis Dickoh (free transfer)

Oluwafemi Alijore (free transfer)

Out:

Danny Olsen (AGF)

Jeppe Curth (end of loan, AaB)

Typical line-up in autumn:

Lössl; Juelsgård, Banggaard, Sviatchenko, Bak Nielsen; Izunna; Igboun, Olsen, Larsen, Sisto; Rasmussen

Expected line-up in spring:

Lössl; Juelsgård, Banggaard, Sviatchenko, Bak Nielsen; Izunna; Igboun, Poulsen, Alijore, Sisto; Rasmussen

Brøndby-AaB

Sunday 23/2 19.00

Brøndby (4th) first matches could decide whether they are to play for medals or survival. Right now they are stuck somewhere in between. Brøndby had a quiet transfer window, where Paraguayan international Nuñez where the only addition of interest. Nuñez is an offensive player, but he will probably have to work his way into the starting line-up since Brøndby are pretty robust in that area. Whether they are robust in defence will be tested on Sunday, since all of their favoured players in the backline will be absent with either injuries or suspensions. So instead of a backline of: Durmisi, Boulahrouz, Albrechtsen and Almebäck; they will have to manage with: Silva, Dumic, Stenderup and Holst. On paper it is not terrible, but changing your entire backline should not enhance quality. On a positive note is the good fitness shown by striker Zohore in recent friendlies. Preferred striker Makienok has also scored, but has so far failed to play full matches, and we doubt seeing him change that on Sunday. AaB (2nd) are the overlooked team in the title race. The main reason can be found in the transfer window, where they failed to add a single player, while selling their defensive backbone Lasse Nielsen to NEC Nijmegen. Thelander is set to cover his position and is a good defender, but Nielsen has really been key in several seasons (splendid signing by NEC). Otherwise AaB are struggling with injuries to several regulars: right back Dalsgaard and strikers Jönsson and Jacobsen. AaB are hoping all three will be fit, otherwise they will look harmless upfront with the duo of youngster Spalvis (made two goals in latest friendly though) and winger Due as the expected solution. AaB will like always be relying on their strong midfield and it seems fit - highlighted by Kusk’s splendid goal against IFK Göteborg.

Two teams that probably have to cope with several reserves in the line-up is typically not something that increases the risk taken. We suspect the match will be intense but mostly a war of position. It could easily end in a draw.

Idea: X – 3.40 at Unibet

Team info:

Brøndby:

Autumn:

Position: 4th

Points: 25

SoTR: 56,65% (4th)

PDO: 950

Important transfers:

In:
Ariel Nuñez (Libertad)

Out:

-

Typical line-up in autumn:

Hradecky; Durmisi, Albrechtsen, Dumic, Holst; Szymanowski, Ørnskov, Phiri, Thygesen; Antipas; Makienok

Expected line-up in spring:

Hradecky; Durmisi, Albrechtsen, Boulahrouz, Almebäck; Szymanowski, Ørnskov, Phiri, Hasani; Kahlenberg; Makienok

AaB:

Autumn:

Position: 2nd

Points: 32

SoTR: 53,98% (4th)

PDO: 1090

Important transfers:

In:
Jeppe Curth (returns from loan, FC Midtjylland)

Out:

Lasse Nielsen (NEC Nijmegen)

Typical line-up in autumn:

Larsen; Ahlmann, Nielsen, Petersen, Dalsgaard; Thomsen, Risgård, Würtz, Kusk; Jönsson, Jacobsen

Expected line-up in spring:

Larsen; Ahlmann, Thelander, Petersen, Dalsgaard; Thomsen, Risgård, Würtz, Kusk; Jönsson, Jacobsen

Viborg-Randers

Sunday 23/2 14.00

Viborg (9th) were our favourite villains in autumn. They netted a Shots on Target Ratio of only 37%, which were by far the lowest. Only an impressive efficiency (mainly from league top scorer Dalgaard) has kept them alive. Maybe Viborg have followed our posts since they have made several signings during the winter break despite of a scanty economy. They have signed two Swedes, Fagerberg and Stoor, but none of them look fully fit for action just yet. One that does is new-signing Boysen, who have been a force on the wing during friendlies. On the bench there has also been a change. Club legend Ove Christensen was forced to resign due to a serious knee injury and Auri Skarbalius has taken over. Skarbalius was the guy who put Brøndby into a lot trouble last season, but managed to save them at the end. Skarbalius did not leave the best impression in Brøndby, so we are eager to see what he can do in another atmosphere in Viborg. So far performances have been decent, finishing with a 3-0 smashing of rivals SønderjyskE in the final rehearsal. Viborg will be without strong central defender Ogunbiyi. Randers (5th) are despite of a fine rank in the league closer to relegation (4 points) than medals (7 points). They have been surprisingly quiet in the transfer market only signing creative midfielder Fisker from 1st Division leaders Hobro. That signing will come in handy since normal right-winger Kamper is struggling with an injury. Randers will also be without two key players, their top scorer Schwartz (9 goals – 38% of team goals) and strong left back Tamboura. Lundberg and Fischer will act as stand-ins but are not of the same calibre. Surprisingly Randers coach Todd seems to have ditched normal strong central defender Fenger for the veteran Sørensen. Sørensens level is not even close to the top level of Fenger so we are fairly surprised. Randers have looked fine in friendlies. They did however concede two easy goals despite dominating against FC Midtjylland last weekend (2-2).

Viborg looks stronger offensively with the addition of Boysen and you should keep in mind that Viborg is actually a decent home team (home SoTR: 44% - same as Randers away SoTR). For us this is also a fairly even match that could go either way. But we suspect that goals will arrive. Viborg have played over 2.5 goals in 7 out of 8 home matches in 2013. With Randers’ backline a bit weakened Viborg should be able to find the net. Furthermore the match-up between Randers front-line and Viborg’s defence also look like something that could end in goals.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 2.08 at Betfair

Ideas: 1 – 2.92 at Betfair

Team info:

Viborg:

Autumn:

Position: 9th

Points: 21

SoTR: 37,31% (12th)

PDO: 1108

Important transfers:

In:
Emilijus Zubas (loan from Daugava Riga)

David Boysen (Lyngby)

Ken Fagerberg (Horsens)

Fredrik Stoor (Lillestrøm)

Out:

Sebastian Andersen (loan to Hobro)

Jeppe Grønning (loan to Hobro)

Typical line-up in autumn:

Peskovic; Poulsen, Rask, Ogunbiyi, Thorsen; Nagel, Gotfredsen, Rømer, Jensen; Stankov; Dalgaard

Expected line-up in spring:

Peskovic; Poulsen, Rask, Ogunbiyi, Pallesen; K. Mensah, Lerager, Rømer, Boysen; Stankov; Dalgaard

Randers FC:

Autumn:

Position: 5th

Points: 23

SoTR: 45,03% (9th)

PDO: 1022

Important transfers:

In:
Kasper Fisker (Hobro)

Out:

-

Typical line-up in autumn:

Andersen; Tamboura, Fenger, Agesen, Thomsen; Borring, Keller, Bjarnason, Kamper; Brock, Schwartz

Expected line-up in spring:

Jensen; Tamboura, Fenger, Agesen, Thomsen; Borring, Keller, Bjarnason, Kamper; Brock, Schwartz

Note: Schwartz is out for the first 4-5 rounds with an injury. Replacement will probably be Lundberg.