Week 24 round-up

Our Tip of the Week was successful, but other than that our recommendations were without much bite. We were very unfortunate that SønderjyskE conceded in 93+ minute which meant that we lost out on a odds 4+ win. Too bad! Our #Twitbets were not good, but our ideas had a fine weekend. Follow us next weekend for a hopefully more successful round!

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

OB-SønderjyskE

Friday 28/3 18.30

OB (6th) surprised us by winning in Brøndby without their midfield engine of Skulason and Spelmann (2-1). Replacements Schoop and Busuladic really did impressive so coach Bech is now having a positive problem. Offensively OB looked lively, especially driven by midfielder Rasmus Falk who had his best game of 2014. Even Skoubo scored (he is our second favourite OB scapegoat after the miserable Bodul)! OB’s 2014 have been a year of ups and downs. We only have to go one week back to find a very poor display at home against Viborg (1-1). You never know what to expect. OB will be without veteran central defender Anders Møller Christensen who will be replaced by the young Daniel Høegh. Høegh has been a starter but lost his place due to several personal mistakes. SønderjyskE (12th) got an important win in a round were most of their rivals in the bottom took points as well. SønderjyskE were a bit lucky to beat the in-form AaB (3-2) but they are finally having the luck they lacked in autumn (PDO (luckiness indicator) for autumn: 887 – spring: 1171). Especially striker Tommy Bechmann has been cynical. His two amazing goals last weekend were decisive and he’s got great confidence. SønderjyskE look a lot stronger than they did in the end of the autumn. They go out to win matches and have a strong belief in this possibility. Two important players left the last match with minor injuries, winger Johan Absalonsen and central midfielder Daniel Jensen, but no new information about their status has been published. We expect both of them to be ready, otherwise SønderjyskE look significantly weaker. It is worth noticing that they have played two H2H’s this season: in July OB-SJE 1-1 and in October SJE-OB 1-5. In both matches the away team was heavily dominating (shots on target from the two matches: 4-10 and 2-11). This coincides with the fact that both teams were the only ones with a lower SoTR (shots on target ratio) home than away in autumn (read this review). Add to this that is a Friday evening match; this is rarely a big crowd attractor.

We have pinpointed several reasons to put less weight on the home advantage for this match. We believe that OB are just a bit better than SønderjyskE, but it is not enough to warrant a huge gap in payoffs between home and away win, especially if Absalonsen and Jensen are fit. The gap seems too big here so we pick a valuable away win. A good additional bet based on stats would be the over 2.5 goals. Both teams are involved in matches with a high degree of chance creation.

Recommendation: 2 – 4.15 at Mermaidbet

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.82 at Nordicbet

Esbjerg-FC Vestsjælland

Saturday 29/3 17.00

Esbjerg (5th) are by far the best team of 2014. They have earned 13 from a possible 15 points. Esbjerg have been really good but at the same time benefitted from a good schedule (have not met a team from top 3 yet). With the additions of Dubravka in goal (holds the highest saving percentage in 2014), Jakobsen in defence and Pusic in attack Esbjerg are one of the more complete teams in the league. Esbjerg have no vital absences for this match. Esbjerg holds the league’s highest home SoTR of 63%. FC Vestsjælland (11th) suffered another cruel home defeat against a rival in the relegation battle (0-1 vs. Viborg). FC Vestsjælland were poor from the start to the finish, apparently because FCV’s players were poor at following coach Pedersen’s game plan (changed from the standard 5-3-2 to 4-4-2). The last time something like this happened (after 0-4 loss to SønderjyskE), FC Vestsjælland followed up with an impressive 0-0 against the team with the most home points, AaB. A likely defensive display will probably be the master plan for this match. FC Vestsjælland have the best team to choose from after the return of defender Oliver Lund. They have a physically strong team.

Esbjerg have won against OB, FC Nordsjælland, AGF and Viborg. Nice results but definitely not impossible. FC Vestsjælland on the other hand are a strong away team. They have managed to avoid losing in 9 out of 12 away games (only lost to their nemesis Viborg (twice) and a slim loss to FC Copenhagen). Six of these have ended in a draw. FC Vestsjælland will arrive to this match with the objective to shut the match down and we believe they could do that. Odds 3.95 fine for the draw.

Idea: X – 3.95 at Unibet

Randers-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 30/3 14.00

Randers (9th) got an impressive point in Parken against FC Copenhagen (1-1) last weekend. Randers are however the only team without a victory in 2014. It is surprising when you notice that Randers have been dominating most of their matches. Poor finishing and under average keeping has been costly though. Randers have a quality team though and it will only be a matter of time until someone else than the strong midfielder Kasper Fisker finds the net. Randers will be without central defender Mads Agesen who is suspended. Agesen is the only defender who has been a part of all matches in 2014, so naturally it is not good. Fortunately for Randers, the alternative Chris Sørensen’s main weakness, his speed, will probably not be challenged by the FC Midtjylland attack. Randers might be without their striker Ronnie Schwartz who left the last match with a sore collarbone. He is doubtful for this match. Schwartz is vital for Randers but has not been fit yet, which is an obvious reason for Randers’ poor striking accuracy. FC Midtjylland (1st) have lost two matches in a row and have actually been poor in the last three matches. This coincides with when they lost central defender Erik Sviatchenko to injury. It is obvious that the defence is less stable without him at the back. The last two conceded goals have been from crosses to a strong header; something that Sviatchenko was particularly good at preventing. Sviatchenko is probably not available for this match either. Offensively FC Midtjylland have been looking more modest in the last three matches. They have had 12 shots or less in the last three matches. Their average for the season is close to 15; a good indicator for the current lack of creativity.

We are likely to see a very intense ball game on a poor pitch in Randers. FC Midtjylland have been weak lately, while Randers have been decent but just inaccurate. FC Midtjylland’s team is better, but we believe that the match will be closer than the bookies predict. Therefore we pick the home win.

Recommendation: 1 (DNB) – 2.35 at Tipico

UPDATE: Izunna, FC Midtjylland's ever important defensive midfielder is out for the season. A huge blow for FC Midtjylland who are without a defensive midfielder of anywhere near Izunna's standards. Should allow Randers to dominate the midfield. Plus Randers coach Colin Todd is finally back after more than a month's absence with a heart condition. Assistant Thomasberg has had limited success in Randers in this period: 0 wins. Players like Todd so expect renewed energy.

Viborg-Brøndby

Sunday 30/3 17.00

Viborg (10th) must really love FC Vestsjælland. They have met them three times this season with a maximum 9 points to follow. Last weekend they could easily have won with great margin (1-0) had it not been for the FC Vestsjælland keeper. Viborg are a team that we must conclude are well suited against a team like a physical FC Vestsjælland. They get into more difficulties when they face quick and technically strong teams (like Brøndby). There must be some optimism in Viborg though. After 9 matches without a victory they finally got one and they deserved it. Their squad is in a good condition and the suspension to midfielder Rømer is without importance since he is normally only a substitute. We like the addition of Brazilian Wilton Figueiredo as offensive midfielder, he is a quality playmaker and has the abilities to make striker Dalgaard even more dangerous. Brøndby (4th) suffered a disappointing defeat at home against OB (1-2). Brøndby were not able to cope with the many absences in the central midfield and the solution with winger Hasani did not do very well. The midfield issues will not diminish for this match. Even though Lebogang Phiri is returning from suspension, his place in the suspension sofa will be taken by Martin Ørnskov. Our expectation is that Brøndby will try another midfield constellation, which will be more successful than the one last week (our solution: Holst to midfield, Almebäck to right back). Brøndby benefit from the return of central defender Martin Albrechtsen. The duo of Stenderup and Dumic has not been impressive so it is an important addition. Offensively Brøndby are still capable of creating many chances and with striker Makienok improving from week to week they will only become more dangerous.

It is a meeting between two teams on each end of the momentum scale. Nevertheless we believe that Brøndby will have the best chances of a win here, since they have a good match-up against a Viborg team that struggle against technical opponents. Odds for 1X2 seem fair. But the O/U 2.5 goals market is more attractive. The odds for over 2.5 goals at 1.95 should be worth a bet.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.95 at Bet365

AaB-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 30/3 19.00

AaB (2nd) only have themselves to blame for the loss last weekend against SønderjyskE. They created plenty of big chances to win but poor finishing meant that they missed out on the opportunity to take the top spot. Based on how they are playing they should have that position. They have an incredible strong midfield with a good combination of creative and strong midfielders who all share one ability: they are solid on the ball. In front it looked good too with youngster Lukas Spalvis scoring two goals. He seems like a strong alternative for the injured Anders K. Jacobsen. Only concern is the backline that are giving too many easy chances. Unfortunately AaB’s best striker Rasmus Jönsson is struggling with a groin injury and he could be absent for the upcoming match. Positive is the news that right back Dalsgaard and striker Jacobsen will return to the training grounds in this week. If this trio all get fit for Sunday, AaB will be able to field the strongest possible eleven. FC Copenhagen (3rd) are far from past strength. They have not been good at creating anything offensively (only scored four goals in the five games of 2014) and the continued absence of midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen seems like the main reason for this. The midfield of FC Copenhagen is not frightening anyone at the moment. Coach Solbakken underlined this by swapping both his central midfielders early in the last match. Against a strong midfield like AaB they could get dominated. Furthermore the backline of FC Copenhagen has still not recovered after the exit of Ragnar Sigurdsson to Krasnodar in the winter transfer window.

AaB are the leagues strongest home team in the league (12 matches: 7 wins and 5 draws). FC Copenhagen are fragile at the moment. They are without Nicolai Jørgensen, their most vital player. In fact, whether FC Copenhagen has Nicolai Jørgensen in the starting line-up or not makes a big difference. With: 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses (1.8 point average). Without: 2 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses (1.1 point average – this average would currently equal relegation). It makes no sense that AaB are not favourites for this match!

Tip of the Week: 1 -  2.95 at Mermaidbet
Idea: Under 2.5 goals - 2.00 at Unibet

FC Nordsjælland-AGF

Monday 31/3 19.00

FC Nordsjælland (7th) shocked the world (okay, maybe just football fans in Denmark) by taking their only 2nd away win in 11 attempts against FC Midtjylland (1-0). Actually the only other team they have beaten away is AGF so this seems like a good match-up for FC Nordsjælland. That FC Nordsjælland have earned any points can be credited Kim Aabech. The stand-in striker has scored 4 out of 6 FCN goals in 2014. The situation in Nordsjælland is improving due to the fact that several players are returning from injuries. They are still several players away from the best possible line-up but they currently have a team capable of challenging any team in the league. Unfortunately left back Patrick Mtiliga is suspended. Mtiliga is a good player and a team leader so his absence could be visible. AGF (8th) were terrible at home against Esbjerg last weekend (0-3). They showed no passion and were totally dominated. AGF have been terrible at home lately. If you add a cup match they have lost the last three home matches with 3-12 in total. The home audience has completely lost belief and it is reinforcing the lack of confidence for the home players. AGF have been better when playing away (won the last two). AGF will have midfielder Danny Olsen and defender Anders Kure back from suspension. They are probably the two most important players for AGF so you should not expect to see an AGF team at similar poor level as last weekend. AGF lost winger Stephan Petersen to a serious ankle injury in the last match. Petersen has been underperforming for a while so despite of the tragic event it will probably not weaken AGF much.

FC Nordsjælland are a strong home team, while AGF are a decent away team. Momentum is on FC Nordsjælland’s side so they must be clear favourites. We believe that the current odds are fair, but if you are looking for a Monday bet, we would go for the home win.

Idea: 1 – 1.80 at Unibet

Week 23 round-up

Another surprising round from the Superliga. When you look back at the last two rounds it is easy to see that the rules of transitivity is not met. Teams are beating each other despite of the table telling it is impossible. For instance the league's no. 1 lost at home to the worst away team in the league, while the league's no. 2 lost to the league's bottom team. In the end we must be satisfied with 3 out of 7 in a difficult week. Unfortunately it was our recommendations that suffered. Hopefully we will have more success with them in the coming weeks. It is not acceptable that they are underperforming the ideas.

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

FC Vestsjælland-Viborg

Friday 21/3 18.30

FC Vestsjælland (9th) took a vital win in Nordsjælland last weekend (2-1). A deserved win by a FCV team that played on their superior physique. FC Vestsjælland are in a very good condition currently and only the injured right back Oliver Lund could maybe improve the line-up. FC Vestsjælland’s new striker Edward Ofere has shown his value with two goals in the past two matches. Ofere is strong in the air and with quality wing backs like Michael Lumb and Peter Nymann he has the duo to support him with good crosses (and this is exactly how he scored the two goals). Ofere’s strong heading abilities could also be a big threath unless Viborg puts their big defender Ogunbiyi in to mark him (Ogunbiyi has been struggling with an injury and been on the bench in the recent matches – but played 90 minutes for the reserves in midweek). FC Vestsjælland are a decent Superliga team with an average SoTR of 49%. Viborg (11th) are based on our stats not a decent Superliga team. Poor is probable a better tag since they hold a SoTR of 36%, which is the lowest in the league (for away matches it is horrendous: 30% - to compare: second worst away team have a SoTR of 40%). Stats aside Viborg have been struggling for a long time even though striker Dalgaard does his best to keep them in the league (league top goalscorer with 15 goals – 48% of Viborg’s goals!). Viborg got a fine draw in an even match against a poor and demoralised OB team (1-1). Viborg are yet to win under new coach Auri Skarbalius and it seems like he is still struggling to find the right selection. Last time he introduced Brazilian Wilton Figueiredo to the starting eleven for the first time and the offensive midfielder did well. He could be a possible solution to Viborg’s limited ability to create chances. Viborg will benefit from the return of regular midfielder Lukas Lerager from suspension. The two teams have met twice this season, both times in Viborg. Viborg won these matches 4-1 and 2-0, so it could seem like Viborg got the upper hand.

FC Vestsjælland got a strong line-up when everyone is fit, while Viborg looked better in Odense but have otherwise been very poor in 2014. We believe that FC Vestsjælland’s scoring chances are correlated with whether or not Ogunbiyi is selected in the Viborg defence. If not FC Vestsjælland should have a good match-up against a central defence of Rask and Egeris. The poor H2H scares us a bit, but based on squad quality we believe that 2.15 is worth a shot (to compare OB home win against Viborg was only available at max 1.77 – FCV should be rated at least at the same level as OB at the moment)

Recommendation: 1 – 2.15 at Unibet

FC Midtjylland-FC Nordsjælland

Saturday 22/3 17.00

Revenge is the code word for this match after both teams suffered bitter defeats last weekend. FC Midtjylland (1st) lost against fellow title challengers AaB (1-0) in a fairly equal match. FC Midtjylland have not been overly impressive during the first matches apart from a 5-1 win against FC Copenhagen. They have made a lot of changes in the line-up (most of them forced) and it is a probable reason for the instability. For this match they will welcome back strong midfielder Petter Andersson from suspension. It is only the injury to key central defender Erik Sviatchenko that prevents FC Midtjylland from fielding the strongest eleven in the upcoming match. FC Midtjylland are a strong home team and they have the league’s second highest home SoTR of 61%. FC Nordsjælland (8th), the runner-up last year, are a surprise visitor to the relegation fight. They have made a lot of changes this season and combined with a load of injuries they have lacked consistency (and maybe also used players who are simply not good enough). Nevertheless it is especially their away performances that have brought them into trouble. With only four points earned from a possible 30 it is only good home performances that have kept them above the relegation line. And FC Nordsjælland arrive to this match from their only 2nd loss at home the entire season (against FC Vestsjælland) so it must be a FC Nordsjælland team in poor shape. FC Nordsjælland were without several key players in that match. Captain and central midfielder Nicolai Stokholm will be back, while players like Morten Nordstrand, Martin Vingaard (highly unlikely) and Anders Christiansen might return. They are all suffering from minor injuries. If they are not available FC Nordsjælland should definitely not expect their poor away record to improve.

Although the absence of Sviatchenko is vital for FC Midtjylland, we regard them as solid favourites for this match. FC Nordsjælland have a lot of injury issues (several long-term not mentioned here) and their line-up in recent matches have not been impressive. When you add the horrendous attitude they show when they play outside their own artificial turf in Farum, we should have a one-sided affair.

Tip of the Week: 1 – 2.05 at Unibet

SønderjyskE-AaB

Sunday 23/3 14.00

SønderjyskE (12th) have been a different and better team in 2014. They have certainly not been pushovers in the first four matches and combined with strong performances from keeper Skender (has stepped up from a poor autumn) they have so far earned four points. It is not enough though since they are still five points below the relegation line so points are needed and we should expect to see them fighting bravely. Compared to the last match against FC Copenhagen (0-0) defensive midfielder Guira returns from suspension. Guira is technically poor, but he makes up for it by his ball winning abilities. With Guira back in the line-up SønderjyskE should be able to field their preferred eleven (if you ignore long-term injured players). AaB (2nd) are suddently on everyones lips after the 1-0 win against FC Midtjylland. AaB have been the team in the top that nobody took serious, but in 2014 they have looked like the best of the teams in top 3. They are technically gifted and have a high work rate. But they have to cope with a few injuries to important players: right back Henrik Dalsgaard (two goals this season) is doubtful with a springer’s knee while attacker Anders K. Jacobsen (five goals this season) is out. Especially the possible absence of Dalsgaard could be crucial. SønderjyskE’s left winger is the speedy Johan Absalonsen and you could doubt that AaB’s alternative right back Patrick Kristensen has the ability to follow him. AaB have won the last two meetings by two goals.

Both teams have a high work rate and we suspect that you will see them fight for scoring until the end. Add that all AaB’s ten away matches of the season have gone over 2.5 goals we suspect that this could happen yet again. SønderjyskE have good strikers in Okotie and Bechmann who should get some opportunuties. At the same time AaB seem unstoppable offensively with Jönsson, Kusk and Thomsen.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 1.83 at Mermaidbet

FC Copenhagen-Randers

Sunday 23/3 17.00

FC Copenhagen (3rd) have really been a disappointment in 2014. Only one win in four matches was not what you expected from a team that needed a lot of spring points to regain the championship. But FC Copenhagen have been poor. The striker Andreas Cornelius has looked far from his old level, while the absence of the gifted midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen has been vital. Quite amazingly FC Copenhagen have only managed to get 15 shots on target in the first four matches which is the 2nd worst in the league only topped by Viborg’s 13. FC Copenhagen will benefit from the return of the offensive players Cornelius and Braaten from suspension, but Jørgensen is unfortunately still injured. It will be interesting to see whether they can create chances. Randers (10th) were our biggest disappointment last weekend when they lost to AGF (1-3). Their wasteful finishing was visible once more. They had 20 shots but only three managed to get on target! In total they have had 60 shots in the first four matches but only managed to score three goals. In that sense it is positive that strikers Schwartz and Brock-Madsen are looking to return the upcoming weekend. Schwartz even got 10 minutes against AGF but looked a bit from his old form. Question is whether a week more will benefit much? Nevertheless we would be surprised if he is not in the line-up since Swedish striker Lundberg has been invisible in the past few matches. Randers will probably be without defenders Johnny Thomsen and Mads Fenger who both left early with injuries against AGF. Alternatives Chris Sørensen and Alexander Fischer are decent though. Based on our stats Randers holds the league’s highest TSR of 2014 (67%), this means that they have 67% of the shots in the matches they have played. They also have the lowest PDO, which we call the luck barometer (they have been very unlucky/inefficient!). Our argument: if Randers keep up their chance productivity they should expect to earn more points! The last three H2H’s have ended in seven points to Randers and only one to FC Copenhagen.

Randers have some defensive issues, but FC Copenhagen have not been very dangerous offensively lately scoring a maximum of one goal per match. Even though we burned our fingers on Randers the last time, we cannot see why FC Copenhagen are such big favourites. Proper odds for a home win should be around 1.65. Therefore we pick Randers not to lose by more than one. They have only done so in one out of 10 away matches!

Idea: 2 (AH +1) – 2.00 at Bet365

Brøndby-OB

Sunday 23/3 19.00

Brøndby have been a Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde team in 2014. Dr Jekyll at home where Brøndby have been dominating both FC Nordsjælland and AaB (SoTR: 72%). Mr Hyde away where Brøndby have earned four points in away matches against Esbjerg and Randers, despite hardly being able to combine two sucessful passes (SoTR: 33%). Brøndby are/have been suffering from several injuries. In defence they have been without Martin Albrechtsen and Khalid Boulahrouz. It is a weakening, but even though they have only allowed one (own) goal in the last two matches. In the midfield they have also attracted some problems. Regular midfielders Nørgaard and Hasani are new injuries, while alternative for the central midfield Phiri is suspended. It will be interesting to see who coach Frank select to join Ørnskov and Kahlenberg in the central midfield. Our guess is that they will move young right back Holst (who have some experience in this position) and introduce right back Almebäck to the right back position (he was a regular at the end of the autumn). It is not optimal but no tragedy. Brøndby still got their key players fit in this is important. OB (7th) rarely wins matches. In fact they have only won two of the last 10 matches. Last weekend against poor Viborg they were poor too. And this despite fielding what should be close to their preferred line-up. For this match OB will be far from the preferred line-up since the two central midfield dynamos Spelmann and Skulason are both suspended. A guess is that O’Brien and Schoop will take the central positions. Decent players, but not of the same quality as the energetic duo of Spelmann and Skulason. What is more concerning for OB is that they have not managed to get their quality wingers Rasmus Falk and Emil Larsen up to full speed. When the duo underperform the team rarely wins. Last time they met in Brøndby, the home team won 2-1 in a match that they should have won bigger. It seems like a bad match-up for OB: a team that gives away many chances against a team that creates a lot of chances.

Two teams without several players fight in a match where the home advantage could be vital. Brøndby have been another team when playing at home and against a OB team without their midfield workhorses they should earn three points.

Idea: 1 – 1.95 at Mermaidbet

AGF-Esbjerg

Monday 24/3 19.00

AGF (6th) delivered a convincing performance in Randers last weekend (3-1). Convincing in that aspect that AGF proved that they are not giving up and they are not as bad as people tell them. After a lot of critic from the media (ourselves included) that they were weak and without quality, they had the worst start in Randers. Going behind 1-0 after 30 minutes where AGF had not even created a shooting opportunity it seemed like another defeat and this could easily have made the team implode like they did the week before vs. AaB. But AGF would not give up and even managed to overcome a red card just before the break. It was not a pretty win but a vital one mentally. Unfortunately AGF will be without the architect of the win, midfielder Danny Olsen, and the strong central defender Anders Kure who are both suspended. They will probably be replaced by Casper Sloth and Petri Pasanen, players capped for Denmark and Finland respectively. On paper not a problem but in reality easily so since Olsen and Kure are players with a lot of positive energy and their presence is really promotional for the entire team. Esbjerg (5th) leads the league in points if you only look at 2014 (three wins and one draw). They dominated the last match against Brøndby but failed to create the decisive chances. This were also the problem last autumn where Esbjerg at times had a hard time finding the net. New signing, the striker Pusic, has otherwise been a pleasant surprice for his great physique and ability to hold up the ball. But he has still only scored on a penalty in the first match. Esbjerg is a strong team however and with Kian Hansen back in the central defence it looks solid. Esbjerg leads the charts in fewest shots on target allowed in 2014: only 13 shots. Esbjerg are still without the creative midfielder Fellah but other than that they have a full squad to choose from.

Esbjerg look stronger in this match and they should be favourites. Odds are just acceptable. Furthermore we also find some value in under 2.5 goals. We believe it will be a tough battle in midfield like it is traditionally when Esbjerg visit Aarhus. In fact the two last matches in Aarhus have totalled one goal. Odds 1.92 is valuable especially since AGF are without their most dangerous man, Danny Olsen (scored 4 out of 6 AGF spring goals).

Ideas:

Under 2.5 – 1.92 at Unibet

2 – 2.15 at Nordicbet

Week 22 round-up

A small total minus is the outcome of our betting week. We had a good start, especially by quickly taking account of new injuries for FC Nordsjælland and the resulting #Twitbet for a FC Vestsjælland win was successful. Unfortunately we were one shot on target short of a win for a second #Twitbet of the round in OB-Viborg. Our recommendations proved to be good with both Esbjerg and AaB dominating their respective matches. Unfortunately we picked the wrong match for draw no bet. The biggest disappointment of the round was the performance of Randers on Monday night. Randers dominated the match completely for the first 30 minutes, were in front 1-0 and AGF did not have a single shot attempt. But from then on it seemed like two forced substitutions in the defense destabilized the team (leading AGF to score twice). In the second half Randers failed to take advantage of AGF being one man down. So a disappointing week for our Tip of the Week. We are however ready to feed you with new bets for next weekend. Hopefully luck will be more in our favor.

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

Randers-AGF

Monday 17/3 19.00

Randers (9th) have only gained 2 points so far in 2014 and that feat is really extraordinary when you add that during 2014 Randers holds the highest total shots ratio at 68%. This tells us that Randers has had 68% of the attempts in these matches, which signals how dominant Randers have been. They could easily have had 9 points in 2014 and be in 4th place instead. Unfortunately for Randers their strikers have been wasteful. 40 attempts on goal have resulted in only 2 goals! There is positive news however since team top goalscorer Ronnie Schwartz (9 goals this season) looks to return from a collarbone injury for this match. Furthermore midfielders Keller (captain) and Fischer will return from suspension and in that sense it is unimportant that Nicolai Poulsen is suspended. Randers are probably still without two more regulars: right back Thomsen and second striker Brock-Madsen, but they are a lot closer to their best eleven than they have been at any time in 2014. Why has Randers then done so well (play-wise)? One of the keys is the signing of midfielder Kasper Fisker who has been a joy to behold. He is creative but also dangerous (2 shots on the crossbar and 1 goal in 3 matches!) and Randers looks to benefit from his good form. AGF (7th) fans already fear another relegation. It would fit well into the recent rhythm: the last two World Cup years (2006 and 2010) they have been relegated. AGF looked like a 1st Division team on Saturday against AaB (2-5). The defence was poor. The midfield that is supposed to be the strong part was without creativity and energy. Only striker Jesper Lange added some Superliga quality and his fight set up the two goals. The new coach Fredberg could be in over his head and his actions against AaB proved it: not until the 1-5 goal did Fredberg make a substitution. For us that is a clear sign of Fredberg’s disbelief in the squad quality. Fortunately for Fredberg, defender Anders Kure will return for this match. He is a no-nonsense guy that can boost the motivation for some of the other players.

Randers have been playing well in 2014. 2 points should have been at least tripled. On the other hand AGF are miserable and have even so gained 4 points. We think the bookies have given too much concern to the points and not enough attention on the quality on the pitch. In our opinion Randers should be almost 50% favourites for this.

Tip of the Week: 1 – 2.20 at Nordicbet

Esbjerg-Brøndby

Sunday 16/3 19.00

Two of the spring’s best teams are facing off in this thriller. Esbjerg (5th) have climbed after starting the spring beneath the relegation line. The defence has improved dramatically where the saving percentage has steadily increased from 64% to 66%. Another place they have improved are at the other end of the pitch. The passing game has a different flow, which was evident this weekend at Viborg. Striker Mushaga Bakenga had about three clear-cut chances and one of them resulted in a goal. With his partner in crime up front Martin Pusic everything is at another level. They seem to compliment each other well and with two goals in three matches Bakenga is thriving at the front with Pusic. Brøndby (4th) have won their last two matches and have only lost one in their last 14. An impressive stat for a team that just only avoided relegation last season. The turmoil that was going on in the boardroom has settled and that might have calmed the morale of the squad. Especially the morale has changed and there is this new aura around Brøndby. Even though things are different there still are some concerns for the fans. Brøndby have looked strong in their two home games of 2014 but in the away game against Randers they played awful. Especially the central defence without regulars Boulahrouz and Albrechtsen was not convincing. Boulahrouz and Albrechtsen are likely to be out here as well.

With no suspensions and a few injuries for Brøndby (Boulahrouz and Albrechtsen), both team are all set. This will be an interesting and intense match. We believe that the problems in Brøndby’s defence combined with the new and improved offence of Esbjerg will be decisive. 

Recommendation: 1 - 2.65 at Mermaidbet

AaB-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 16/3 17.00

AaB (2nd) made quite an impression by winning 5-2 in Aarhus last weekend. Led by midfielders Thomsen and Kusk the AaB attack was on fire and the absence of striker Anders K. Jacobsen was not evident since the alternative, youngster Lukas Spalvis, did brilliantly. Midfielder Rasmus Würtz was sick but his absence was covered well by Patrick Kristensen. Würtz should be back for this match while Anders K. Jacobsen will not. In total it is an AaB squad very close to best line-up. Add to this that they have a strong home pitch: they have not lost in 15 consecutive home matches. FC Midtjylland (1st) can put themselves in a perfect position for a first championship title if they win this match, although they would probably be satisfied with a draw. After smashing FC Copenhagen 5-1, they looked more modest against SønderjyskE and only poor refereeing and an efficient striker in Morten Duncan Rasmussen secured them a win (2-0). Dead last SønderjyskE were at the same level. FC Midtjylland suffered without the stability of having central defender Erik Sviatchenko in the line-up. Sviatchenko is injured for this match too. Furthermore normally strong winger Sylvester Igboun looked far from match fitness. Midfielder Petter Andersson is suspended. So all in all it is a FC Midtjylland team in a good position but not good condition.

AaB just come of a strong match, while FC Midtjylland’s performance was a bit more vague. We think that AaB have more momentum and combined with the home field advantage we find value in the home team. Some risk of a draw is natural in such an important match and we bet so we get money back in case of that outcome.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0) – 1.71 at Mermaidbet

OB-Viborg

Sunday 16/3 14.00

It is starting to look like a déjà vu for OB (8th). The last two years terrible spring performances have forced them to fight for survival until the very end of the seasons. Both years they ended just above the relegation line and this time around it could go down to the wire as well. The main concern for coach Troels Bech is the strikers. Abdellaoue is the only one who has consistently scored goals this season but he is just about to return to full match fitness after an injury. Neither Bodul nor Skoubo are the goal getters they so desperately need. Especially Bodul has been dead awful so far in 2014. On the plus side wingers Larsen and Falk are both getting closer to the form they had in autumn. Some good news is that important back/winger Bashkim Kadrii has been playing for the reserves. He might get a few minutes but will not be but will not start after a torn ACL. OB will not force him in. Keeper Toppel is suspended but Christiansen is an adequate reserve. Viborg’s (11th) problems were evident against Esbjerg last week. They only scored due to a blunder by the defence and were not able to create many big chances. Only two players stand out. Striker and top scorer Dalgaard still has the edge needed to become the league top scorer at the end while keeper Peskovic is the only reason that Viborg haven’t lost the last two matches by five goals or more.

Viborg cannot create the chances they need to travel home with points in their luggage. For OB the solution for their striker problem is Abdellaoue but he is doubtful and is unlikely to play full time. We reckon that with a healthy Larsen and Falk, OB will get the three points here.

Idea: 1 - 1.77 at Mermaidbet

FC Nordsjælland-FC Vestsjælland

Saturday 15/3 17.00

FC Nordsjælland (6th) took another away beating by losing 4-1 in Brøndby. This was the 8th away loss in 10 matches and if it was not for a strong home statistic FC Nordsjælland would be halfway in the 1st Division by now. At home FC Nordsjælland have only lost one match the entire season and it happens to be against FC Vestsjælland, the visitors this weekend. FC Nordsjælland usually arrive to the home matches with much more eagerness and they tend to dominate these matches (unlike the away matches). Unfortunately for FC Nordsjælland they are still facing a lot of problems with the availability of their key players. For this match they will be without their captain, the central midfielder Nicolai Stokholm, and probably also the preferred striker, Morten Nordstrand. Both are vital players that leave FC Nordsjælland as a team without a clear figurehead to add belief when things get tough. The opponents FC Vestsjælland are still to win in 2014. They have been very inefficient, but the last two matches proved that the defence is better than the first 0-4 loss against SønderjyskE suggested. FC Vestsjælland have a strong ability to undermine the opponents creativity when playing away. Their impressive away record highlights this. In 11 away matches they have lost only three: two losses to weak Viborg and a slim 1-0 loss against FC Copenhagen. FC Vestsjælland not facing the match as defensively as the normal Superliga away match can explain the losses in Viborg. The point is that FC Vestsjælland are very strong at limiting the opponent by adopting a very defensive approach away. The 0-0 in Aalborg against an offensively strong team that went on the beat AGF 5-2 in this round last highlighted this. FC Vestsjælland will welcome back important midfielders Henrik Madsen and Rasmus Festersen.

The absence of the key players for FC Nordsjælland combined with FC Vestsjællands strong away record means that we think the value is against FC Nordsjælland. We could have picked X2, but we find the draw as the most interesting outcome (combined the two teams have 45% draws if you add up their respective home and away records).

Idea: X – 3.85 at Betfair

SønderjyskE-FC Copenhagen

Friday 14/3 18.30

SønderjyskE (12th) have been unlucky in the past two matches, which have both ended in defeats. Against AGF they were in the lead and dominated the match but AGF made a comeback out of the blue. Against FC Midtjylland it was a very even affair, but FCM’s striker Duncan and some poor refereeing decisions led to another loss. It is really too bad for SønderjyskE who have played with great energy and focus. They will face another difficult opponent here and they will have to do it without their defensive midfield engine Guira who is suspended. This will allow veteran (and captain) Henrik Hansen to enter. He will surely be motivated but he clearly lacks Guira’s ball winning abilities. Offensively SønderjyskE look threatening despite not being able to take dividends hereof in the recent two matches. We are sure that Bechmann and Okotie will add more goals to their tally during the spring. FC Copenhagen (3rd) kept themselves alive in the championship battle with a slim away win in Odense. It was a fairly even match, where FC Copenhagen’s lack of offensive firepower when Cornelius and Jørgensen (he played ten minutes) are not there was evident. Copenhagen will probably have to do without both of them this time around too, Cornelius is suspended and Jørgensen injured. Furthermore other offensive alternatives Braaten (suspension) and Vetokele (injury) are maybe not available either. This leaves FC Copenhagen with discarded striker Adi or youngster Amankwaa. Not perfect! Add to this that the defence with old Mellberg and inconsistent Stadsgaard has not frightened anyone (FC Midtjylland scored five goals against it two weeks ago).

FC Copenhagen have a lot of offensive problems and if players like Vetokele and Jørgensen are not fully fit for the match, SønderjyskE should have a fine victory chance. We pick SønderjyskE not to lose.

Idea: 1 (HCP 1-0) – 2.20 at Nordicbet

UPDATE: FCK news: Jørgensen is out, while Vetokele might be fit enough to start. Our idea bet seems sensible. 

Week 21 round-up

A splendid week for us. We were only one goal from the perfect weekend. 6 out of 7 bets were in the bank! Finally we saw some results that made sense. We hope this will continue in the coming weeks. Stay tuned - bets for next week will be posted today!

To understand the tables:
Hit rate: Percentage of bets that have ended with a win
Total (units): We flat-bet one unit per bet. A plus of 2,12 units would mean that you have won 2,12 x value of one unit for you.
ROI: Is the return on investment. In our terminology, a ROI of 110% would mean that you for a bet of 100 units would have gotten 110 in return.

Viborg-Esbjerg

Sunday 9/3 14.00

Viborg (10th) were the biggest surprise during the autumn season but it seems like they cannot continue the great form they had. In the first two matches of 2014 their SoTR is an awful 25% and is by far the lowest. In last week’s match they were dominated against FC Nordsjælland (2-0). Luckily for them goalkeeper Michal Peskovic had a great day because the loss could have been bigger. Viborg is a team that relies on their counter attack and last time they played against Esbjerg (7th) they won using that tactic. At home their SoTR is 44% and is the third lowest while Esbjerg’s away SoTR is 51%. Esbjerg will be the team with the ball the most. Unfortunately for Esbjerg right back Peter Ankersen is suspended and Ryan Laursen will replace him. This will weaken the right side for the away team. Laursen lacks Ankersens speed and Esbjerg will miss the awareness that the two Ankersen brothers have for each other. Defender Kian Hansen might be back after falling ill last week but they still prevailed against OB. They are now looking like the team they were last spring where they were unstoppable.

Viborg have conceded 16 goals in nine matches this year. With an Esbjerg team that looks like they have transformed over winter this could end up being an away team that will take the three points. 2.10 is not overly impressive though and we keep as an idea.

Idea: 2 - 2.10 at Tipico