Hobro-FC Midtjylland

Friday 3/10 18.30

Hobro (4th) are the success story that seemingly has no end. We backed them last weekend against Silkeborg, but in truth they were very lucky to salvage anything from that game (2-2). They have been so efficient until now. On 40 shots on target they have scored 15 goals – an average team would only have scored 10. Our stats also place Hobro as the, by far, luckiest team in the league (by having a position which is not in line with the chance creating ability). They have some quality offensive players in Hvilsom and Antipas, but in truth it is a team of players that were deemed short of expectations in other Superliga clubs. At some point reality should catch up with Hobro. It is even more likely on Friday since Hobro will be without their suspended defensive midfielder Jonas Damborg who deserves much credit for his ability to spoil the opponents offense. FC Midtjylland (1st) are in the lead, and it is well deserved. The squad depth of FC Midtjylland is extraordinary, and with the good lead to expected main rivals FC Copenhagen, Brøndby and AaB they stand a great chance of earning the championship title. They were dominant last weekend against FC Vestsjælland (1-0) who were in total survival mode. FC Midtjylland clearly lacked some power upfront, where striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen got his first minutes after an injury period. He should improve here. In the midfield FC Midtjylland have so many quality players that it must be a huge challenge for coach Riddersholm to name the starting eleven. Especially winger Sylvester Igboun is in great form, and will be a handful for the Hobro defense. FC Midtjylland could be without central defender Jim Larsen and right back Kristian Bak Bach, but that should not cause major concerns.

For us there should be quality difference here. We backed Hobro last weekend since we expected that the momentum effect could lead them to dominate bottomplaced Silkeborg. Instead they were outplayed, and against the league number one we cannot see any other outcome than Hobro being outplayed again. FC Midtjylland should win this match if they intend on winning the title.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 1.95 at Unibet

UPDATE: FCM winger Rilwan Hassan is injured. He will be replaced by Pione Sisto who is a strong replacement, but it is a small minus for FC Midtjylland.

OB-Silkeborg

Saturday 4/10 17.00

OB (11th) arrive to this vital relegation clash with a new head coach. Troels Bech was fired during the week, and new head coach is the experienced Ove Pedersen (head coach in FC Vestsjælland last season). Pedersen will probably be focussed on the defending here, since he lacks time to make many changes offensively. Most empirical studies have shown that a change of coach leads to poorer results in the subsequent matches, but Pedersen is a solid coach with experience in these during the season coach changes (has done it twice before). However, expecting OB to start playing great football is not likely though. OB will be without young midfielders Mikkel Desler and Rasmus Falk plus central defender Daniel Høegh. Central defender Lasse Nielsen should return to the squad here. Silkeborg (12th) have not won yet. They should have done so last weekend against Hobro, who they dominated for most of the match. On the bright side they got striker Nicolaj Agger on the score sheet for the first time of the season, and this could probably give him more confidence, because his finishing has been horrendous. Silkeborg have a solid team, and it is not a walk in the park to beat them (have not lost a match by more than two goals). No reported injuries or suspensions here.

OB with a new coach will primarily want this match to end without a defeat. Afterwards Pedersen will have time to implement his ideas in the two weeks until next match. Silkeborg are a solid team that lack killer mentality, why they have not won yet. This stinks of a draw. Let us point out that OB have drawed 3 out of 9 matches and Silkeborg 4 out of 9 matches (and that the current league draw average is 33.3% highlighting the current equality of the league). For us, 3.50 for a draw is a really nice price!

Recommendation: X – 3.50 at Tipico
Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.94 at Betfair 

FC Vestsjælland-SønderjyskE

Sunday 5/10 13.00

FC Vestsjælland (8th) are a difficult size. They have been really poor in most away matches and lost all five of them. When they play at home they are a different team however. Here they have earned three wins and one draw, and if they had won all four no one would have said it was unfair. What to make of this? First of all, the home wins have been against opponents primarily from the lower end of the table, while the away losses have been against teams primarily from the upper half. FC Vestsjælland have a solid team with many experienced players. The addition of Anders Kure to the defence is a clear strengthening, and we believe that FC Vestsjælland should allow fewer goals in the future (currently “leads” the league in conceded goals). Central defender Oliver Lund is suspended, but Anders Østli is a fine back up. SønderjyskE (9th) are on the rise. They have four draws in a row (1-1), and the impression is that they could easily have won a few more matches. It is especially the offense that has experienced a great improvement since the start of the season. Players have returned from injury and striker Marvin Pourie has arrived from FC Copenhagen. We expect the skilled German to score his first league goal soon. No reported injuries or suspensions for SønderjyskE.

FC Vestsjælland have been in great home form, but primarily against teams in poor form. SønderjyskE are improving for every match at the moment. We are a bit tempted to place a bet on the away side, but we feel that the draw is even more interesting (maybe the 5th 1-1 match in a row for SønderjyskE?). A draw would be satisfactory for both and the price is fine.

Idea: X – 3.50 at Betfair

Randers-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 5/10 15.00

Randers (3rd) are having a great season. They have been very solid at the back (three clean sheets in a row). Offensively they lack a striker in top form, but the rest of the pitch is characterized by stability and continuity. Randers are a very physical team, but the right hand side with Thomsen and Fisker have some skills in breaking through the opposite backline. No reported suspensions or injuries for Randers. FC Nordsjælland (2nd) are also doing remarkably well. They have so much confidence at the moment and they have continually shown that conceding a goal does not put them out. Their success is primarily due to the strong form of wingers Uffe Bech and Joshua John, who are really doing a great job. They will be difficult to contain even for Randers’ solid backline. FC Nordsjælland lack physique in the midfield, and in previous H2H’s they have been dominated in this part by the great Randers physique. No reported injuries or suspensions for FC Nordsjælland.

Randers are a solid home team, and they are rarely dominated in Randers. FC Nordsjælland are having a great season, but are normally not known as a strong away team (they prefer their artificial pitch in Farum). Randers should be slight favourites here, so we pick the home win (draw no bet version).

Idea: 1 (DNB) – 1.81 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-Esbjerg

Sunday 5/10 17.00

FC Copenhagen (5th) are showing glimpses of progress. Much is however dependent on the fitness of key midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen, and this might be his first appearance in the starting line-up for a while (cannot play a full match though). Jørgensen has some offensive skills that the rest of the squad cannot match at the moment, and without him the team has limited offensive punch. Especially since lone striker Andreas Cornelius is on quite a cold streak (has not scored a regular goal in eleven matches (including European matches))! That being said FC Copenhagen are over the worst injury issues, and they can field a strong defence and a strong midfield. Esbjerg (10th) are suffering from the effect of not finishing off matches. They have lost many points in this season by being unable to maintain a lead. The starting eleven is strong and much better than the current 10th position, and at some point they should start winning some matches. This is however maybe not the best place to start, but if anyone were to do it, it is probably Esbjerg’s strong counter attackers (Esbjerg have not lost away to FC Copenhagen in the last three matches). Esbjerg have no injury or suspension concerns.

Is Jørgensen playing? That is a very important question and vital for how the percentages are placed here. Therefore we would not put too much on the line at this time. If anything we would pick Esbjerg not to lose, since FC Copenhagen have scoring issues and Esbjerg are not a team that is easily defeated.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.08 at Bet365

UPDATE: FCK's Antonsson injured. Amartey will be moved to central defence. Nicolai Jørgensen is playing from start upfront. Goals in store?

Brøndby-AaB

Sunday 5/10 19.00

Brøndby (7th) showed promising glimpses in the 2-2 match in Esbjerg last weekend. Brøndby have not been living up to pre-season expectations, and a number of last minute signings clearly needed some time to get into the team. One of them, striker Teemu Pukki, played his first really good match and caused a lot of trouble for the Esbjerg backline. If he maintains that level he will be a great signing. Brøndby have a number of quality players, and they should improve their position in the standings. Based on our statistics on chance domination Brøndby are one of the strongest home teams (placed third). No reported injuries or suspensions. AaB (6th) are like Brøndby stuck in a position that is not aligned with expectations. AaB have been far from the level from last season, and especially the creative contribution of Kasker Kusk (now Twente) is missed. In fact, AaB are shockingly poor in terms of creating chances. Based on our stats they are together with Hobro and OB the among the poorest teams in the league. AaB have been very poor in the away matches (where they have only faced “easy” opponents: FC Vestsjælland, Silkeborg, OB and SønderjyskE): 3 draws and 1 loss. Worse is that their chance creation in these away matches have been abysmal: AaB had 12 shots on target and allowed 29 shots on target in the four matches. It is not only the absence of Kusk that causes problem. The strikers are not very sharp at the moment (one (penalty) goal in the last three matches). Furthermore, the situation is even worse with the suspension for the captain, central midfielder Rasmus Würtz. Without him AaB lack their leader, a very important player for the stability of the team. On the plus side left back Donny Gorter and right winger Frederik Børsting return from injury (both are nothing more than rotation players though). Worth noting that AaB play a Europa League match against Rio Ave on Thursday.

Brøndby showed some promising things in a difficult away match against Esbjerg last weekend, and at home with great support on a Sunday night they should dominate a depressed AaB team. AaB have been poor all season long, and with Würtz out we see no logic in it changing here.

Recommendation: 1 – 2.25 at Tipico

Week 9 round-up (14/15)

A fine weekend for us. We were just one goal short from getting a return from all our bets (specifically, a goal by Kadrii for FC Copenhagen). Our Tip of the Week is still having a tough time. Hobro were in the lead, but in all fairness it was okay that they did not win. Our Twitbets are still our strongest weapon, so follow us on Twitter, especially around an hour before match kick-off where we will post bets based on starting line-ups! We can also post a small surplus for the season after this round:

AaB-Randers

Friday 26/9 18.30

AaB (6th) are in trouble at the moment. They lost 1-0 to FC Vestsjælland last weekend and it seems like they are having trouble following up on their impressive championship season. The offense is not working at the moment. Anders K. Jacobsen gets some chances, but is not very efficient, while Nicklas Helenius is obviously some way from his top form. The result might be that unproven youngster Viktor Ahlmann replaces Helenius. On the positive side, AaB will benefit from the return of the two backs Henrik Dalsgaard and Patrick Kristensen, which should bolster the back line. However, AaB are always strong at home, and this is probably the only reason AaB should be optimistic here. Randers (2nd) are playing some solid football, and getting plenty of points. They are not showing anything spectacular; they are just difficult to beat due to their strong organisation. Offensively they lack a striker in top form, but they manage to get slim wins anyway. We expect Randers to line-up with a very physical team with winger Kasper Fisker as the only a creative force.

AaB are struggling, while Randers have a lot of momentum at the moment. The bookies have noticed this and the offer for the away win is not outstanding, given that the home team is the defending champions. For us, the most interesting outcome here is under 2.5 goals. Randers are not giving away many chances, and they have gone under the line in the last five matches. AaB also lack firepower in front, but are looking quite solid at the back.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.87 at Betfair

SønderjyskE-FC Copenhagen

Saturday 27/9 15.00

SønderjyskE (9th) are on a draw roll after three draws in a row (all 1-1’s). In the last two matches SønderjyskE deserved the win, and they have certainly improved with the addition of striker Marvin Pourie. Pourie is a dangerous guy when in top form and he is likely to be quite a bargain. He will be very motivated here, since he is playing against the club that loaned him out (did not believe in him). The risk is that Pourie is a very selfish player, and especially in this match he could be too eager to do everything by himself. SønderjyskE’s offense is looking good though with the return of winger Absalonsen from injury (also a former FC Copenhagen player). We expect SønderjyskE to start earning more points at some point, since they have a strong team. Captain and central defender Niels Lodberg returns from suspension. FC Copenhagen (5th) won the very important Copenhagen derby last weekend (1-0 against Brøndby) and this should be a huge confidence boost. They have been struggling to get continuity, but at some point all the skills of this team should come to light. The question is just when? With the return of key midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen and the versatile Bashkim Kadrii to full fitness FC Copenhagen definitely look stronger. Strong central midfielder Daniel Amartey returns from suspension here.

SønderjyskE have recently improved their offense remarkably, while the same should be the case for FC Copenhagen with the return of Kadrii and Jørgensen. Therefore we believe the over 2.5 goal bet is probably the most interesting bet here. With respect to 1X2 betting, the price seems right at the moment. SønderjyskE are tough to beat at home, but FC Copenhagen should have the strength to do so.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.025 at Bet365

UPDATE: Striker Tommy Bechmann is quite likely not playing tonight, which gives a small minus for our over bet here.

Silkeborg-Hobro

Saturday 27/9 17.00

Silkeborg (12th) do indeed appear to be the worst team in the league. This is partly because the team is not strong, and partly because they are not very cynical. This was visible in their recent 1-0 loss against Randers and the 1-2 loss against FC Nordsjælland. In both matches the deciding goal felt within the last few minutes. Furthermore, the only player who has scored for the team in eight matches is midfielder Emil Scheel. This should hardly scare any opponent. Hobro (4th) delivered another admirable effort by a draw against Esbjerg 1-1. Based on chance creating stats, Hobro should be in the other end of the table, but they just have loads of confidence at the moment, why they are incredibly efficient in front of the target. At the same time it is important to add that a player like Antipas brings some X-factor that is difficult to handle for the opponents. Compared to last season where the two clubs faced each other in the second best league, Hobro have improved a lot due to the new signings, while Silkeborg do not seem better.

Hobro have loads of momentum and some quality players. Silkeborg look average and without confidence. The home field advantage adds some percentage to Silkeborg, which makes this game very close to even. This leaves great value for an away win here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (DNB) – 2.23 at Unibet

FC Midtjylland-FC Vestsjælland

Sunday 28/9 14.00

FC Midtjylland (1st) played a really poor match in Farum last weekend (lost 2-1 to FC Nordsjælland), where they committed many personal mistakes. However, FC Nordsjælland is a difficult team and the artificial pitch is always a challenge for the away team. Now they return to their own fortress in Herning, where they are more solid. They have won all four league home matches in this season and done so by dominating every opponent. For us, FC Midtjylland have clearly championship potential. The situation is looking even better with the news of the possible return of two vital players from injury: team top goalscorer in the past seasons Morten Duncan Rasmussen and offensive midfielder Petter Andersson. Both players should be able to play a part here. Central defender Jim Larsen is doubtful, but FC Midtjylland have an excellent back-up in Erik Sviatchenko. FC Midtjylland have some players with individual qualities that many opponents cannot match. The offensive trio of Igboun, Hassan and Sisto will be a big task for the defending trio of FC Vestsjælland. FC Vestsjælland (8th) are a team with two faces. The home face is impressive (3 wins and 1 draw), while the away face is terrible (4 losses). FC Vestsjælland have not been able to shut down matches to get points in away games like they did in the last season. There has been a coaching change and we suspect that this is the main reason. Head coach Michael Hansen is not as known for his defensive skills as his predecessor. However, FC Vestsjælland have some very focused players, but apart from the in-form Rasmus Festersen they lack offensive quality.

If you just look at stats, you have a good home bet here. And if you look behind the stats you get the same feeling. FC Midtjylland are simply a much stronger team than FC Vestsjælland, and they also seem to have quite good match-ups on the pitch. We would be surprised if FC Midtjylland do not win this match, and they could even to it with a margin if Duncan is back on top.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -1) – 2.06 at Unibet

Take advantage of the free Leaguespy preview:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=38193&a=33624

Esbjerg-Brøndby

Sunday 28/9 19.00

Esbjerg (10th) missed out on a chance to get some momentum going by only drawing in Hobro (1-1). It is clear that Esbjerg are not at the level of the spring season. This is not unnatural since Esbjerg lost some important players in Kian Hansen (Nantes) and Peter Ankersen (Salzburg). However, based on the performances they should have earned more points. They have struggled with many injuries early in the season, and clearly lacked continuity. This is starting to improve with the same eleven being able to play every weekend over the past few rounds. However, the vital striker Martin Pusic is doubtful with a shoulder injury. Without him Esbjerg have no offensive firepower and is nothing more than an average team. Brøndby (7th) are also suffering. The addition of Daniel Agger surely improved Brøndby’s defence last weekend, but the offense is not in-sync at the moment. On paper they have some quality players, but they have proven way to easy to psych out, especially in away matches, where Brøndby have been weak. Brøndby should benefit from the return of attacker Johan Elmander from injury, but it is still not easy to see how the goals should arrive.

A match between two teams who are not really in the highest gear at the moment. We find this match quite difficult to predict, but if Pusic is absent the value is surely on the away side. Even if he is playing he might be affected by the injury, since his style involves a lot of physique. If we had to pick we would therefore choose betting on Brøndby in this very even match-up.

Idea: 2 (DNB) – 2.20 at Ladbrokes

FC Nordsjælland-OB

Monday 29/9 19.00

FC Nordsjælland (3rd) are playing great football at the moment. Their place in top is very deserved. They underlined this be beating FC Midtjylland 2-1 in the last round. The quality of the wingers Joshua John and Uffe Bech is outstanding and they are impossible to keep down at the moment. At the same time FC Nordsjælland have managed to get some continuity for once with the same players playing each weekend. Do not forget that this is the club that won the Danish championship just a few years back, and some of the players were on that team, so they do undoubtedly have quality. OB (11th) are a different story. They have invested in players primarily from the second best Danish league due to bad economy, and this is visible on the pitch, where they simply lack quality. The only fit star player in the squad, winger Emil Larsen, is far from his best at the moment and is largely invisible in matches. At the same time they are battling with several injuries: key offensive midfielder Rasmus Falk and central defender Daniel Høegh are both injured, while first choice goalkeeper Mads Toppel also could be out here. Add to this that OB are still searching for a solution for the striker position, where different alternatives have been tried without success during the past matches. OB could face a tough season battling against relegation.

FC Nordsjælland are a very strong team at home on artificial turf. At the same time OB are having a really poor period, where they lack quality. It is difficult to see how OB’s backline will cope with the likes of Bech and John. Therefore we see great value in the home win (risk lovers could go for a larger win).

Recommendation: 1 – 1.95 at Tipico

UPDATE: OB's captain Ari Skulason (central midfielder) is suspended for this match. Definitely not something that decreases the value in home win here. Furthermore, central defenders Kasper Larsen and Lasse Nielsen are both doubtful. OB have no other natural central defenders in the squad! On the plus side goalkeeper Mads Toppel returns and he is a major improvement to alternative Ousager. FC Nordsjælland have no reported concerns. Home win looks very likely here!

Week 8 round-up (14/15)

Another very disappointing round for us. The marginals are clearly not with us. It was highlighted by Silkeborg conceding a late goal against Randers and Esbjerg failing to take advantage of their good periods against Hobro. Nothing more to do, than look forward and hope this poor run ends soon. Our #Twitbets are the only positive at the moment. We aim to keep on producing great bets just ahead of kick-off for the matches.

Randers-Silkeborg

Friday 19/9 18.30

Randers (3rd) were expected to have a hard time making it into the upper half this season, but until now they have done their best to prove critics wrong. The strength is the continuity of the 4-4-2 formation of coach Todd. He is very loyal to his strategy and his players now what to do. This makes Randers a difficult team to beat as Brøndby were forced to realise last weekend (0-2). However, it can also be Randers’ weakness, since an opponent not aiming to attack knows just what to expect from Randers. Randers have a team with many physically strong players with great attitude, but they lack some players with some extraordinary skills (with Fisker’s shooting skills being the only deviation). Randers are without important injuries for this match. We expect striker Djiby Fall to be back in the line-up after scoring as a substitute in the last two matches. Silkeborg (12th) are stuck in the bottom. They are a decent team, but just not good enough for this level. Furthermore, they lack some confidence offensively. Midfielder Emil Scheel is still the only player who has scored for them, and their preferred striker last season Morten Beck has been demoted to the bench. Silkeborg have a lot of experienced players and they are difficult to beat, but not really dangerous offensively. Midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen got a knock in the last match, but is expected to play here. Otherwise no injury concerns.

We expect Silkeborg to be very focused at just getting a point here. At the same time, they know what to expect from Randers, why they will be a tough team to beat. Unless Randers get an early goal, we believe that this game can be a long hard struggle that easily could result in a low scoring draw. We are quite impressed by the price for a draw here, since it is quite obvious result in our opinion.

Recommendation: X – 3.90 at Betfair

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.89 at Betfair

Do use the free Leaguespy preview of this match: http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=37894&a=33624

Hobro-Esbjerg

Saturday 20/9 17.00

Hobro (2nd) must be listening to Queen’s “Don’t Stop Me Now” on repeat at the moment. They are really having a good time! But at some point this must come to an end. They have been lucky in several games where only Hobro’s own efficiency and the opponents lack of the same have given them points. This was very visible in the last match against SønderjyskE, who were pushing and had a goal disallowed for 2-0 – instead Hobro equalised out of the blue to the end result 1-1. If you look at the stats, then it tells a story about a very lucky team. Hobro are number one in terms of scoring (scores on 39% of their shots on target – league average is 26%). They are number one in terms of defensive efficiency too (saves 86% of shots on target – league average is 74%). This leads us to conclude that Hobro are by far the luckiest team in the league. Their performance is unsustainable high and based on their ability to produce chances, we rank them between position 8 and 12 (TSR: 12 and SOTR: 8). For more info on the meaning of these measures, click here. Hobro have some quality players though, and that is probably the main reason for the success. Had it not been for the quality actions of Quincy Antipas (including his many assists) and the goalscoring form of Mads Hvilsom, Hobro would have been at the bottom. Defensively they have looked solid, but they have problems when the opponent moves the ball fast. Central defender Anders Egholm is doubtful for this match. Esbjerg (10th) finally got a win (3-0 against FC Vestsjælland). That had been long overdue, and was starting to affect Esbjerg mentally. The truth is that they are a very strong team, and before the start of the season it would not have been a huge surprise if they ended up with a medal. The season just got off to a poor start with Esbjerg being inefficient and generally very unlucky (dropping wins in final minutes (also in Europa League)). Against FC Vestsjælland Esbjerg started with low confidence, but once they took the lead they looked revived. Newcomer Robin Söder scored twice and Martin Pusic scored once, so the attack must be very confident ahead of this match. Defensively, the strong Eddi Gomes returns from suspension. Esbjerg’s main weakness is the set pieces, where Hobro could have an advantage. The question is how many opportunities (corners and free kicks) they will get. Esbjerg have no important injuries.

We believe that the win was just what Esbjerg needed to spark their run away from the relegation zone. At the same time, we doubt Hobro can continue their lucky streak against Esbjerg. Esbjerg should have defenders who are able to minimize the amount of danger stemming from Antipas and Hvilsom. If so, Hobro should be humane. We dare to give more than 50% chance for an away win here. A match with some goals is not unlikely if Esbjerg takes the lead.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 2.02 at Betfair

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.02 at Betfair

UPDATE: Egholm is out for Hobro. Not optimal for the stability of their central defense. At the same time Esbjerg head coach Frederiksen has decided to field same team as last weekend, which means that strong central defender Gomes will start on the bench. These updates adds a bit more value to the away win (and more to over 2.5 goals!).

OB-SønderjyskE

Sunday 21/09 14.00

OB (11th) are in a bad condition. They lost due to a very late (and dubious) penalty against FC Midtjylland (3-2), but in truth they were lucky just to be close to getting a point. Midtjylland dominated the shooting stats by 28-8, and it told a lot about OB’s defensive problems. Offensively OB scored two goals out of nowhere, but were otherwise not very intimidating. OB have just strengthened the back line be resigning strong right back Espen Ruud, but OB have more issues. Central defender Daniel Høegh, key offensive midfielder Rasmus Falk and goalkeeper Mads Toppel are all absent for this match. In total it leaves OB with offensive firepower and a vulnerable defence. OB’s only force appears to be the fighting spirit of players like Skulason and Spelmann. SønderjyskE (8th) should have had three points against Hobro last weekend (1-1). The signing of striker Marvin Pourie has huge potential, but he probably needs some matches to be in sync with his new teammates. Offensively it leaves SønderjyskE with a load of offensive players with quality: the speedy Songani and Absalonsen, the ever-dangerous Bechmann and now also the goalgetter Pourie. However, SønderjyskE are still struggling with some injuries. Absalonsen is doubtful here and the same is regular central midfielder Daniel Jensen. Captain and central defender Niels Lodberg is suspended here, but SønderjyskE have many strong central defenders, so it will probably not be a huge loss.

It is a match between two teams that have fighting spirit, so we should expect to see a very physical battle. In our opinion SønderjyskE have more to offer offensively, but OB will probably invest more energy on the home pitch. In total we reckon that OB should be slight favourites here, but looking at the odds, we would prefer betting on SønderjyskE.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) – 2.43 at Tipico (odds found by putting 71.4% of stake on away win at odds 3.40 and 28.6% of stake on draw at odds 3.50)

FC Copenhagen-Brøndby

Sunday 21/9 17.00

FC Copenhagen (7th) are performing way below expectations. Truth be told, they have been a bit unlucky not to get more points. However, they are far from what is expected from the expensive squad. It is evident that the constant changes in line-ups (due to poor performance and injuries) have had a poor effect on the team performances. Looking at the squad there is reason to be optimistic. Quality players like Nicolai Jørgensen and Bashkim Kadrii have just returned from injuries (not fit to play full matches though) and they will improve a FC Copenhagen offense that needs some new energy (just scored two goals in the last four league matches). Defensively FC Copenhagen has some issues at right back where the two options, Høgli and Remmer, are both injured. Høgli could return from this match, otherwise FC Copenhagen will be forced to use a central defender here. Strong central midfielder Daniel Amartey is suspended here. Not good, since he has been the best player for FC Copenhagen this season with his ball winning abilities. Brøndby (6th) filled the stadium last weekend for the return of Daniel Agger. Agger was unable to play, and Brøndby lost 0-2 to Randers, so it was a sad day for Brøndby. Agger is likely to play this time, and is needed since Brøndby’s central defence is poor. Otherwise Brøndby lack some power offensively. New signing Teemu Pukki did not impress in his first appearance. Question is if he lacks quality or just needs some matches to be on top. Brøndby will clearly be less dangerous for a period, now that normal choices Nuñez and Makienok are either injured or left the club (signed for Palermo). On paper Brøndby have a very strong squad with some quality players, but we have yet to see it materialize on the pitch.

It is the Copenhagen derby so an intense match is in store. Both clubs are underperforming and some distance behind where they want to be. FC Copenhagen desperately need a win to get confidence, while Brøndby needs to stabilize the central defence (vital if Agger is ready here) and get some firepower in the attacking line. For us this match has low scoring written all over, since both teams are not very dangerous at the moment, while a loss is terrible against the arch-rival, so we expect cautious approaches.

Idea: X – 3.50 at Bet365

Under 2.5 goals – 1.89 at Betfair

FC Nordsjælland-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 21/9 19.00

In our opinion these are the two strongest teams in the Danish league currently. FC Nordsjælland (4th) are benefitting from the offensive qualities of wingers Joshua John and Uffe Bech. They are a tough task for every team in the league. Defensively there is still a lot to ask for, and FC Nordsjællands backline are not totally convincing (led in three Brøndby goals in a match where they were very dominant). FC Nordsjælland are for once in a very positive situation with respect to injuries (all key players are fit). FC Midtjylland (1st) look incredibly strong at the moment. This is all the more impressive since FC Midtjylland are without several experienced players: striker Duncan, midfielder Andersson and defender Bak (captain). But in their absence others have filled the gap. Winger Sylvester Igboun was outstanding in the last round, netting a hattrick. The new-signed midfielder Kristoffer Olsson was also a positive experience and we expect to see much more from him in the future. For this match, the tall striker Paul Onuachu returns from suspension and he gives FC Midtjylland something extra offensively.

It is a match between two teams with the forces offensively. It is difficult to see how the defences will be able to shut down all these strong offensive players. For us this is an over match, and if we were to pick a winner we would go with FC Midtjylland. They look a bit more dangerous than FC Nordsjælland.

Idea: 2 – 2.65 at Betsafe

Over 2.5 goals – 1.80 at Bet365

FC Vestsjælland-AaB

Monday 22/9 19.00

FC Vestsjælland (9th) are looking like a groggy boxer at the moment. They had a start to the season that gave ideas of better times ahead, but the last two matches have been terrible (losing 3-0 against Esbjerg and Hobro). Vestsjælland should be glad they are back on their own pitch, where they tend to give a better fight. They have just signed central defender Anders Kure, and he should hopefully be able to add some more stability to a backline that has looked vulnerable since the change of coach this summer. Under the old coach Ove Pedersen, FC Vestsjælland were capable of just shutting down matches, if they felt the opponent were too strong. This is not the case under Michael Hansen, why FC Vestsjælland could get into trouble if it’s the “good” AaB that turns up. FC Vestsjælland have several injuries, but they are either not new or irrelevant. AaB (5th) got a huge win against FC Copenhagen (1-0), which should be a momentum booster. They have not had a good start to the season, mainly due to many injuries for their vital midfield. After they have gained some continuity it looks better. They have a strong passing game that is difficult for every opponent in the league. Compared to last season they just need the extra spark that Kasker Kusk (now Twente) added. They play a Europa League match in Bucharest on Thursday, and we have seen Danish clubs having difficulties afterwards. But with no Europa League matches next week it should have limited influence here. Patrick Kristensen is doubtful, but Henrik Dalsgaard should be a fine alternative.

Betting-wise it is difficult match. Last season FC Vestsjælland were good at containing AaB (played 0-0 twice), but under the new coach we doubt FC Vestsjælland will suddenly be good at closing down opponents again. With the momentum added last weekend for AaB, and the groggy state of FC Vestsjælland, we prefer the away win here, although the value is limited.

Idea: 2 – 2.15 at Tipico

Free Leaguespy preview available at http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=37899&a=33624

Week 7 round-up (14/15)

It would have been a very good weekend if only there had been one more goal in SønderjyskE-Hobro (1-1). If so, all our recommendations would have been successful! Instead, our Tip of the Week is struggling with six failed out of seven this season, which is absolutely horrendous! Otherwise our ideas were mostly just a goal short, which pretty much sums up the round - almost (but not really) perfect! We aim to do better in the upcoming weekend! And remember, we have still recorded a total surplus for the season and all-time!

FC Midtjylland-OB

Friday 12/9 18.30

FC Midtjylland (1st) are unstoppable in the league at the moment. Last round’s win against Esbjerg (2-0) was really impressive, since FC Midtjylland dominated the opponent completely despite of injuries for several key players. Now they face a team that we assess is weaker than Esbjerg. FC Midtjylland are still challenged by injuries. Defender and captain Kristian Bak Bach, strikers Morten Duncan and Tim Janssen are out. Furthermore, there is also some uncertainty concerning strong offensive midfielder Petter Andersson, while tall striker Paul Onuachu is suspended. In total, you should believe that FC Midtjylland were in trouble. Not necessarily so since they have an impressive squad depth. Only point of concern is the striker position, where new-signed Costa Rican international Marco Urena is only option. Alternatively, FC Midtjylland will do the Spanish version and play with a midfielder in the striker position. OB (10th) have not impressed until now. They lost some experienced players over the summer, and they have been replaced with cheap average players. Furthermore, the condition of the two key offensive players, Rasmus Falk (injured) and Emil Larsen (out of form) are not exactly improving the situation. Head coach Troels Bech has therefore opted to field a defensive 5-4-1 formation, since it appears to be the only way they can clinch some points. First choice goalkeeper Mads Toppel is doubtful, and alterative Emil Ousager is not a good option. He was the keeper in AGF during their miserable spring, and Ousager did not improve the situation. In our opinion he is too short and lack the necessary reflexes to compensate. OB could be vulnerable on set pieces.

FC Midtjylland have many injuries just like in last round, where they cruised to a 2-0 win against Esbjerg. Against OB, which is a weaker team and also without their best player, they should be able to do the same. FC Midtjylland do lack a proven striker, and OB will attack this match very cautiously so an under bet could also be interesting.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.86 at Ladbrokes

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.08 at Betfair

UPDATE: Falk, Toppel and central defender Daniel Høegh out for OB. The latter gives new problems since OB have no other central defenders for their 5-4-1 formation. Possible (but poor) solution is moving young midfielder Mikkel Desler to the defense. This might be done by moving him to the right back position and fielding a 4-5-1 instead! See the predicted line-ups (delivered by us) here: http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=37007&a=33624

AaB-FC Copenhagen

Saturday 13/9 20.35

AaB (7th) are not exactly in the shape that made them champions last season. This can to a large degree be explained by a series of injuries for key players. The situation looks much better right now with left back Jakob Ahlmann being the only injured player who would go straight into the starting eleven. The improved injury situation should also mean that AaB will start to dominate matches. So far, AaB have not been impressive in the league and it has seemed like the most energy has been used on European matches. However, a match against FC Copenhagen will surely motivate the home side, and we could expect to see a very aggressive AaB side. Strong central defender Rasmus Thelander returns to the starting eleven after being sidelined due to a possible transfer in the last match. FC Copenhagen (6th) have not been much better than AaB. For them it is also a matter of injuries combined with a lack of continuity due to the many new players that have arrived during the summer window. FC Copenhagen have a very strong squad, but they are still struggling with injuries. Key midfielder Nicolai Jørgensen, speedy winger Danny Amankwaa, striker Steve de Ridder and the versatile Bashkim Kadrii are all doubtful for this match. This is a lot of the creativity of FC Copenhagen. They have just signed winger Alexander Kacaniklic from Fulham and he could be a strong addition but question is whether he will be a benefit from day one.

In our opinion this could be a very even match. But we take note of AaB’s better injury situation and the strong H2H record when playing at home against FC Copenhagen. AaB always appear to step up when they meet FC Copenhagen at home. Therefore we would suggest taking the home win here.

Recommendation: 1 – 2.96 at Betfair

UPDATE: AaB without strong right back Patrick Kristensen, but Henrik Dalsgaard should be a fine alternative (was first choice before he got injured in spring). FC Copenhagen will be without de Ridder, Kadrii and right back Høgli. The lack of a right back gives extra problems since only other true right back, Remmer is injured. This will probably lead to central midfielder Amartey being used in the defense. He is strong no matter where he plays, but FC Copenhagen will certainly miss his ball-winning abilities in midfield. Doubtful players Amankwaa and Jørgensen have been called up, and we expect that Amankwaa could be in the starting line-up here.

Silkeborg-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 14/9 14.00

Silkeborg (12th) needed 6 matches to get on the score sheet. They delivered a strong performance against AaB (who looked like a team suffering from Champions League hangover). It was positive that Silkeborg managed to create a lot of chances. They are in our opinion still the weakest team in the league, but you will need to be focused in order to beat them. They have too much experience and fighting spirit otherwise. Silkeborg benefit from a fully fit squad, but they lack a striker with confidence (central midfielder Emil Scheel scored both goals against AaB). FC Nordsjælland (4th) have been a pleasant surprise this season. They will wonder how the managed to lose 0-3 against Brøndby after totally dominating the first 60 minutes. The strong wingers Joshua John and Uffe Bech clearly pose a problem for every opponent. It is also a big improvement that many of the injured players are returning (for instance midfielder Kasper Lorentzen who has been out for more than a year). FC Nordsjælland play passing football and have a lot of technical players. They lack some physique though, and this seems to be Silkeborg’s chance.

We predict two possible scenarios:

·            Silkeborg manage to dominate FC Nordsjælland physically and we will see a tight match with a slim Silkeborg win or a draw to follow.

·            Or that the strong wingers Bech and John are too much for Silkeborg’s slow backline (John scored four times in a 6-1 win two years ago), and FC Nordsjælland win big.

We find odds on a big win more interesting than just a win for FC Nordsjælland, so that is our pick here.

Idea: 2 (1-0) – 4.45 at Betsafe