FC Nordsjælland-OB preview

Friday 2/10 18.30

FC Nordsjælland (5th) managed to beat AGF comfortably despite being without their four normal offensive starters. For this match, two of them return; league top goalscorer Bruninho and offensive midfielder Emililano Marcondes. This should only improve FC Nordsjælland’s offensive capabilities. They are starting to look much better in the rest of the pitch, where especially Lobotka in the central midfield but also Rodrigues on the right back have proven to be quality signings. FC Nordsjælland are the most in-form team in the league over the past five matches, and they are traditionally pretty comfortable at their own artificial pitch. Still expect winger Joshua John and David Moberg-Karlsson to miss the match. OB (9th) have been shockingly poor away from home this season, 4 losses in 5 matches and a score of 5-15. They have been humiliated several times, mainly because of a fragile backline and unstable goalkeeping. They have a strong offense on paper, but have struggled during the past weeks. However, for this match team top goalscorer Rasmus Festersen is set to return from injury to improve the front line. He and Rasmus Falk need to find a good partnership for OB to have any chance here. Regulars, midfielder Mohammed El Makrini and striker Ander K. Jakobsen, missed the last match and are both doubtful here. OB rank last in the league based on Total Shots Ratio.

FC Nordsjælland are in great form, their star player returns and they are usually strong at home. OB have poor morale after losing 4-0 in last week and being knocked out of the cup to a lower division team. OB could benefit from some returning players, which should give them more overall quality, but their defence is still poor. Over is a logical bet. FC Nordsjælland win could also be worth a shot.

Ideas: 1 (AH -0.25) – 1.83 at Unibet

Over 2.5 goals – 2.10 at Betfair

Randers-Hobro preview

Saturday 3/10 15.00

Randers (4th) could not handle FC Midtjylland last weekend (lost 0-2), but it has been a decent season nevertheless. They have a fairly solid team with some skilled strikers and a solid defence. The defence is hurt by the absence of right back Johnny Thomsen, but loaned back Patrick da Silva is a good alternative. Especially for a match like this, where Randers will have the majority of possession. Randers tend to struggle against defensive minded teams, since they lack creative players to break up opposing defences. However, since last season Randers have two new players for the midfield, Amini and Masango, who have their main force in the creative part. Hobro (12th) are in an uncomfortable position. They got deducted three points for using a players incorrectly and to add further insult, they lost what look like three certain points in overtime against Esbjerg due to an incorrect penalty. Hobro are now 5 points behind the next team and situation is difficult. They have a number of injuries and two players are banned: strong central midfielder Jonas Damborg and central defender Thomas Hansen. Two players who are difficult to replace. Offensively, Hobro have really added some power with Pål Kirkevold and Jung-Bin Park.

Given the absences for Hobro, this really looks like a good opportunity for Randers. However, odds have already been slashed quite a bit, so not really much value in the current ~1.55. Over could be worth a shot, since Hobro have been looking much stronger offensively lately, while Randers have some solid strikers. Risk is that Randers take the lead in is satisfied with a slim win, so only an idea pick.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.12 at Unibet

UPDATE: The ban of Jonas Damborg has been cancelled (wrong yellow card admitted by referee). This is tremendous boost for Hobro and market has not reacted. Furthermore, Randers have been terrible when being big favourites at home. During the past two seasons, Randers have been priced below 1.70 for a home win on 3 occasions. The result: 1 draw and 2 losses and only 2 goals scored. They could face similar problems here since the formation and overall strategy is unchanged. Worth considering Hobro AH +1 at 2.10!

AaB-SønderjyskE preview

Sunday 4/10 13.30

AaB (8th) have been quite unpredictable this season. One weekend they smash Brøndby, the next they lose in Viborg. I still believe they have a strong starting eleven and they are expected to field the strongest team here with Jakob Ahlmann returning on the left back. When they get the attacks rolling on home soil, they are really difficult to handle. However, that could prove difficult against a really solid defence of SønderjyskE that have only conceded 9 goals in 10 matches. AaB are expected to line-up with only one true striker in Lukas Spalvis with Thomas Enevoldsen lurking behind him. SønderjysKE (2nd) are performing way above expectations. They have been cruelly efficient (leads league with a scoring percent of 41% of every shot on target), and despite having Mr. Efficient (Thomas Dalgaard) as striker, I doubt they can sustain this high level of efficiency. They do not give away much though and they are dangerous when allowed to counter-attack as they play very directly. Still, I don’t think the general quality of the team is worth a top 4 position. They will be without regular winger Troels Kløve who left the last match with a serious injury.

Early market undoubtedly had some value in SønderjyskE. Now the case is less clear cut. Normally, I would take odds 2.15 for AaB in strongest formation to beat SønderjyskE, but SønderjyskE are really brimming with confidence at the moment. At the same time, their very compact midfield could give AaB serious problems. AaB should be well aware of SønderjyskE’s counter-attacking abilities and avoid risking the ball in dangerous situations. So good potential for a deadlock and the idea pick here will be few goals in the match, although the two teams historically play matches with many goals (therefore only idea pick).

Idea: Under 2.5 – 1.99 at Nordicbet

FC Copenhagen-Viborg preview

Sunday 4/10 16.00

FC Copenhagen (3rd) took a disappointing loss against Brøndby last weekend (1-0). That does not change the impression of FC Copenhagen as one of the best teams, if not the best, in the league. They are strong in all areas and just need to get the offence fully into gear. However, they are now in a situation without important injuries and they should start to take advantage, especially in home matches. Right back Tom Høgli misses the match with injury, but this is probably the position where they have the best cover. Viborg (10th) took a vital win against AaB last weekend after a solid performance (1-0). They have a decent team, they have players that have a good attitude, but they lack some overall quality and that is probably why they have only been capable of scoring 6 goals in 10 matches. For this match, there situation is concerning as defender Jeroen Veldmate and strikers Jeppe Curth and Serge Deble are all set to miss the match, while captain and left back Christopher Poulsen is doubtful. These are important players for Viborg and it is difficult to see how they are able to challenge FC Copenhagen offensively.

FC Copenhagen should field close to the strongest eleven here. They are very motivated after the loss against rivals Brøndby last weekend and will be eager to compensate the fans. Viborg have a lot of missing players. They are much weaker than FC Copenhagen and have nothing to threaten with offensively, why FC Copenhagen are set to go into powerplay mode. A home win by more than one goal is expected, although Viborg will try to fight their way to a surprising point.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH -1.25) – 2.00 at Bet365

Brøndby-Esbjerg preview

Sunday 4/10 18.00

Brøndby (6th) took a huge gain for the morale by beating rivals FC Copenhagen last weekend (1-0). Brøndby have not had a terrific start to the season, but their fundamental stats are pretty solid. They rank first based on Total Shots Ratio and 3rd based Shots on Target Ratio. In other words, they should be able to advance in the table if they keep up the solid dominance in chances created. Brøndby have a fine team and seem to be improving with the return of talismanic players like Daniel Agger and Thomas Kahlenberg. Brøndby should have a full squad to choose from here. Esbjerg (11th) are not playing well at the moment. They were lucky not to lose at Hobro and before that they were knocked out of the cup and lost clearly to Randers. The performances have been really poor and make you wonder if Esbjerg have spent the transfer money wisely. You get the feeling that several players are mostly playing for themselves and not for the team, and with a temporary head coach in charge some players might be slacking. Esbjerg will surely enter this match with more focus, since Brøndby away in front of many fans always seem to boost the motivation. Esbjerg will see defender Michael Jakobsen return from ban, but he has been playing poorly as the rest of the Esbjerg defence. Esbjerg’s best player this season, winger Robin Söder, is doubtful. Esbjerg have some quality individuals offensively, but the question is whether they can unite and play as a team.

In past seasons you could claim that Esbjerg were unlucky with their below expected performance. This is not the case this season, where they simply have been poor. Therefore, I am also quite surprised to see the price offered for a home win here. Brøndby have strong home support, a significantly better team (especially defence) and a better morale. This should be a home win, although Esbjerg are likely to perform better than last weekend.

Recommendation: 1 – 1.91 at Sportingbet

Update: Esbjerg will be without Robin Söder and strong right back Ryan Johnson Laursen. Both players that could bring quality to the team, so only good news for the bet.