AaB-Esbjerg preview

Tuesday 26/5 19.00

AaB (6th) lost the second match in a row and should thereby have lost all hope of continental qualification. It is a disappointing outcome for an AaB team that have started to look stronger, but the last two matches have been very poor in terms of their passing game. If AaB are not good in the passing game, they are not good at all, since this is their usual quality. The chances of a good game will increase with the return of captain Rasmus Würtz from ban. The defensive midfielder is excellent to set the pace and we should expect to see an improved AaB team compared to the last match. Central defender Rasmus Thelander is the only certain absence due to an injury. AaB have not been as good a home team as usual and only rank 9th in terms of home SotTR (50%). Esbjerg (10th) are in a critical position. They have a rather difficult remaining schedule, so if they lose the next match against FC Vestsjælland they are in serious relegation danger. Therefore, it will be hugely important to get a result here. Esbjerg have a fairly good team, but they often way too naïve, which was also evident in the last match, where they invited SønderjyskE to hit them on the counter, which ended with 3 goals conceded. Esbjerg’s defence is not impressive, but it is remarkable that they ranked 2nd in the league in terms of goals scored! They are also a decent away team and rank 5th based on away SoTR (46%). Esbjerg will probably be without influential central midfielder Magnus Lekven, who also missed the last two matches. He is the Rasmus Würtz of Esbjerg, so it will be an important absence. Another important absence is right back Ryan Laursen. Laursen have played all matches this season, but misses the match with a ban. Esbjerg do not have any back alternatives and will therefore be forced to use a central defender in the position.

With the AaB midfield reunited, they should be clear favourites, but the motivation aspect should be in favour of Esbjerg. We skip betting on a winner here, and bet on goals instead. Esbjerg have been involved in several matches with a lot of goals lately. They have a good attack and a weak back line, why it would be a surprise if this match ends low on goals. AaB have been shooting more on goal than usual lately.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 1.94 at Nordicbet