Week 3 Superliga previews

Not the round with most value picks. Champions League/Europa League are disturbing factors, which means that line-ups will have a big influence here.

Viborg-Esbjerg

Friday 29/7 18.00

The only two teams without points meet here. Viborg improved a lot from round one to round two. You could argue that they deserved an equaliser against AGF, but at the end, they did not have the luck. Viborg have a fine team. It is quite solid, but they made a number of changes in the midfield and they surely need some time to make it really work. Offensively, they have struggled a lot without offensive ace Serge Deble. However, latest information suggests that Deble is back in full training and could make his season debut here. Deble is massively important for Viborg as he draws a lot of attention from opposing defences. It is no coincidence that Viborg are 2-1-7 in the past two seasons, when he is not playing. Esbjerg have been the worst team in the Superliga so far. I am quite satisfied with my season bet on Esbjerg to take direct relegation. They have been torn apart by Brøndby and FC Copenhagen losing each match 0-4. They have only managed to get two shots on target while conceding 23 (that’s a terrible SoTR). However, it is worth noticing that Esbjerg have had two of the worst opponents in the league, while being in a state of chaos while appointing a new head coach and experiencing a change of CEO. Esbjerg should improve with time as head coach Todd gets to introduce his ideas fully. Overall, they are a team with a quite vulnerable back line and a midfield without creativity. Only light in the dark is attacker Kevin Mensah who has the individual qualities to make something happen out of the blue.

Esbjerg have the largest wage budget, but Viborg seem like a more united team with a clearer strategy. If Deble is back to full power, I would significantly increase Viborg’s chances of success, despite my scepticism towards the midfield constellation at the moment. However, if Deble is not on the team sheet, I would certainly not back Viborg at the current prices as Esbjerg could rise from ashes at some point. So I would suggest awaiting the line-ups with 1X2 bets. Instead, my idea pick is an over match as I have a feeling that both teams could go for a win here, and Esbjerg would surprise me if they pull off a clean sheet.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.14 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-FC Nordsjælland

Saturday 30/7 16.00

I recommended betting on FC Copenhagen to take the title in my preseason preview, and I think it is a solid bet based on the two initial games. FC Copenhagen have a beaten opponents without problems and hold a goalscore of 7-0. They have an impressive squad depth and a player with quality covers almost every position. The only thing I don’t like about FC Copenhagen these days is that they have to focus on multiple tournaments as they are hunting a Champions League position. They will play the first match against Romanian champions Astra Wednesday with the return leg next Tuesday, so FC Copenhagen might rest a few of the key players on Saturday, although it is early season so players are less fatigued. But Champions League is undoubtedly first priority at the moment. FC Nordsjælland started the season with 4-0 win at Viborg, but followed up by losing 0-4 at home to FC Midtjylland. What a start! While they looked strong in Viborg, they looked even weaker in the match against FC Midtjylland. I have rarely seen a team being so dominated: FC Midtjylland had 22 shots from the penalty box, while FC Nordsjælland had 3! But FC Nordsjælland have the youngest team in the league, so natural with some bumps on the road. I think they have some potential offensively, but they are certainly fragile against quality opponents.

I would be surprised if this does not end in a home win. The quality difference suggests so, but it is a risk that FC Copenhagen are more focused on the Champions League matches. Therefore no recommendation here – the price is just too low. In fact, it might well increase if FC Copenhagen should rest several starters, so the best thing is probably to wait until line-ups arrive Saturday.

Idea: 1 - 1.34 at Pinnacle

SønderjyskE-Lyngby

Sunday 31/7 12.00

I actually think SønderjyskE did a good job against Horsens last weekend (1-1). They were able to dominate most of the match despite playing 120 minutes Europa League with almost the same players just three days before. However, SønderjyskE will play another Europa League match on Thursday in Poland and with the limited squad depth, I am not sure SønderjyskE will be able to continue fielding the A-team in both tournaments. Thursday night could suggest how SønderjyskE rates the tournaments, but I expect the team in Sunday to be a combination of rotation and tired regular players. Despite of this, you should never underestimate the fighting spirit of SønderjyskE as it was crucial last season in picking up a second place after many even matches. Lyngby showed that they have Superliga quality against OB (2-2) last weekend. They were down 0-2, but fought back and even missed a penalty at the end. Overall, the match was pretty equal, which was unexpected to most (me included), both Lyngby have players with individual skills combined with a good mentality which should give them points throughout the season.

Number 2 last season against a promoted side should look like a clear home win. I don’t think it is the case. SønderjyskE had a massive season last season, they fought well, but they were also incredibly efficient in front of goal. If I am cruel, I would say that they were very lucky to pick up the 2nd place last season. And I see them really having problems with a tight schedule and a slim squad. They are not experienced in playing two tournaments. They face Lyngby, who have made solid summer signings and have offensive weapons to hurt SønderjyskE.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0.5) – 2.06 at Pinnacle

FC Midtjylland-Silkeborg

Sunday 31/7 14.00

This is a local rivalry, but there seems to be a large difference between the teams on the pitch. FC Midtjylland are the main challenger for FC Copenhagen at the top. They proved that by demolishing FC Nordsjælland 4-0 after dominating the match massively. It was hugely impressive, and FC Midtjyland should face a great season if they can play so well. I think they have an exciting squad with a decent depth. However, I am slightly worried if they sell winger Sisto which rumours suggests as he seems to be close to his best now – and they would need him to be a serious challenger to FC Copenhagen. For this match, they could rotate a bit due to Europa League on Thursday, but the reserves should still be stronger than the Silkeborg starters. Silkeborg are a promoted side, which have not done a lot on the transfer market. The match against Brøndby (lost 0-2) showed that Silkeborg are far from the best, and they will undoubtedly face a season in the lower ranks. They focus on solid defending with the hope that a player like Robert Skov will make something happen offensively.

Major quality difference here. It is reminiscent of the FC Copenhagen-FC Nordsjælland game in this round. FC Midtjylland should win, but in case they rotate (or sell Sisto), they could find it a bit more difficult. I am tempted to pick Silkeborg not to score here. They lack offensive quality and FC Midtjylland have looked strong defensively only conceding three shots on target in the first two league games.

Idea: Silkeborg under 0.5 goals – 2.07 at SBOBet

Brøndby-Horsens

Sunday 31/7 16.00

Brøndby have had a great start to the season. They have a goal score of 6-0 after winning two matches pretty effortlessly. The new high-pressing style seem to work well for Brøndby. However, it is also very demanding and stats suggest that Brøndby are running more than the rest of the league. With Brøndby also playing Europa League, they could face some issues. Also since they don’t have the biggest squad depth despite making some new recent signings. Brøndby will play Hertha Berlin on Thursday, which will be a very difficult match. If Brøndby get a good first leg result, they could decide to rest some players for the return match, which would hurt their chances here. Horsens are a promoted side that mainly lives on physique and attitude. They have so far clinched two 1-1 draws, which should be quite satisfying, and unsurprisingly both goals scored have been scored from set pieces (by the strong centre back Sanneh). I am unsure of Horsens offensive quality, particularly due their inability to make offensive new signing and expected profile Aabech perform well. They need him at the best to really make opponents worry.

Brøndby should be strong enough to win here, but with Europa League, a tough playing style and not the most impressive squad depth, I simply cannot back them at the price. It is a match, where a valuable bet might pop up with the starting line-ups. If we look at the over/under market, I think under is interesting. Brøndby might be a bit tired and play more cautiously, while Horsens are defensive by nature and not looking particularly dangerous.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.98 at Pinnacle

AGF-Randers

Sunday 31/7 18.00

AGF have had a fantastic start to the season with two wins. I think they have played fine, but surely not outstanding. It is like last season with the only difference that AGF seem to be more efficient, especially defensively where they suffered from a mediocre saving rate, but so far new keeper Jovanovic seems like an improvement. AGF have also just made a signing of Viking Stavanger central defender Soares and they will hope that he can improve the central defence even further. AGF face some injury issues, as key striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen and central defender Alexander Juel Andersen are likely to miss this match. While Rasmussen was expected to be irreplaceable, his replacement Junker has actually done fairly well when handed the chance in the last few matches. Randers lost 0-1 to AaB last weekend. To be fair, they probably should have earned at least a point there, but they failed to score despite 10 attempts from the penalty box! I think Randers have a fairly solid team, but key striker Ishak needs to find form, while they need to find a better solution than Agesen as centre back.

I see AGF and Randers as two very even teams at the moment. When counting in the home advantage, I actually see AGF to win here as being slim value. I think betting on goals is an even better bet. Both teams should chase the win, while not having the most impressive defences. Head-to-head records also suggest over being a good pick with two of the three matches last season ending with over 2.5 goals.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 2.25 at SBOBet

Idea: 1 (AH +0) – 1.91 at Pinnacle

AaB-OB

Monday 1/8 19.00

AaB took an important win away at Randers (1-0) last weekend. They were good in first half, and perhaps a bit lucky to maintain the lead in the second half. I think, the first matches suggest that AaB are far from the level of last season, which is only natural after losing three of the most important players. AaB still look like a team that is searching for the right formation after the summer break and until that happen, they could be a bit instable. However, I really do like their choice in attack, where Bassogog is an eternal threat with his speed. OB have picked up one of the AaB key players in central defender Kenneth Emil Petersen, but he is banned here. OB did not look all too good defensively in the last match against Lyngby (2-2), which is disappointing but not unexpected as OB are fielding a totally new defence after an abysmal defensive season last season. The absence of Petersen is not good though as he has already been elected captain and OB do not have the most impressive depth on that position. In the midfield they are also hit by injury as defensive midfielder Izunna is out with injury, but he is not as important for OB. I think OB still have a few things to work with in defence and midfield, but the attack is high quality with Jacobsen and Festersen both being players capable of earning the league top goalscorer title.

Given the absences of Petersen and Izunna, I think AaB look somewhat stronger here. Adding that AaB have a strong home field, they should be clear favourites. Unfortunately, the market has already adjusted and I don’t think it is possible to find more value on the home side. In fact, I actually think some bookies have overadjusted, and I think OB could be worth a small stake.

Idea: 2 – 3.79 at Pinnacle

Week 2 round-up

Another excellent round for us. Only two goals from hitting all seven picks for the round, but we had to settle for five wins. Tip of the Week was once again an excellent pick. Hopefully, this only continues onto the next rounds. For the next two rounds previews will probably be shorter as I am on holiday, but I will try to find time to make some suggestions.


Here are the spots of our recommendations. We had three picks with dropping odds, while odds for AGF increased pretty significantly just before kick-off, possibly with the knowledge of a last-minute injury to an AGF defender:

AGF-Viborg 1

Our pick: 2.00

Closing odds: 2.13

Esbjerg-FC Copenhagen 2

Our pick: 1.58

Closing odds: 1.50

Lyngby-OB 2

Our pick: 2.50

Closing odds: 2.36

Silkeborg-Brøndby 2 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.24

Closing odds: 2.05

Week 2 Superliga previews

AGF-Viborg

Friday 22/7 20.15

AGF got an excellent start by winning a close encounter against SønderjyskE. I had AGF noted down as one of the teams that performed better than position suggested last season. They had good chance creation, but suffered under a poor goalkeeper saving rate (league low). They have now signed a new keeper in Jovanovic and he already showed class by making a great save in the first match. Offensively, AGF did fine in the absence of key striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen, especially due to strong performances by the two new signings Amini and Junker. AGF welcome midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen back from injury, but he is unlikely to be ready for a starting position just yet. Rasmussen is still out. Viborg got a terrible start. They lost 0-4 at home against FC Nordsjælland, and they showed nothing promising. Offensively, they could not create anything, the new midfield was not good and even the defenders committed uncharacteristic mistakes. Viborg seem like a team with a long way to go. Things are not made easier by the absence of offensive ace Serge Deble. Viborg are now 2-1-6 without him over the last two seasons. They are simply too easy to figure out without his speed and dribbling skills. Left back Pallesen misses the match with an injury, which is bad news as he was quite strong last season.

Two teams that got entirely different starts to the season. I think Viborg will find it difficult until Deble returns, while the new midfield (3 out of 4 are new starters compared to last season) certainly need more time. You could fear AGF will find it difficult to score without striker Rasmussen, but even though I think there is small value in home win (down to around 1.90).

Recommendation: 1 – 2.00 at PartyBets

Esbjerg-FC Copenhagen

Saturday 23/7 17.00

Esbjerg got a terrible start losing 4-0 at Brøndby not managing to get a single shot on target for 90 minutes! I was actually starting to be a bit more optimistic regarding Esbjerg’s chances after picking up Colid Todd as head coach. Todd seems like an excellent choice for a team that needs organisation and strategy. However, Todd obviously had no quick fix, and this match is probably not what the Esbjerg defence want now as they will have to withstand heavy pressure. The central defence of Esbjerg, which is consequently making huge personal mistakes, does really not impress me. The midfield lacks technical abilities to hold up the ball. The attack looks decent, but still have to prove it is more than fine on paper. FC Copenhagen have done what they want until now. They smashed Lyngby 3-0 in the opener, while they beat Crusaders from Northern Ireland with 6-0 in the midweek (with a B-selection). FC Copenhagen look so strong, even the reserves would be major favourites against Esbjerg. That might be the only issue for FC Copenhagen. Will they rest players for the vital Champions League qualifier against Astra from Romania next Wednesday? It is a possibility, but I still expect them to be close to the strongest line-up here.

There appears to be quality difference. Esbjerg have not looked worse in many years, and FC Copenhagen have not looked stronger. Esbjerg have lost the last six league games against FC Copenhagen and anything else would be quite surprising. I won’t go for the handicap win since FC Copenhagen might want to save energy for Wednesday.

Recommendation: 2 – 1.58 at Pinnacle

Horsens-SønderjyskE

Sunday 24/7 12.00

Horsens got a fine start against AaB (1-1), although they must be disappointed after conceding a late equaliser. Horsens proved that they are a physical team with a good attitude. They are probably not the most talented bunch, but they have a few players with some extraordinary skills, so they are not an easy opponent. I expect them to take a defensive approach and hope that some opportunities arrive on counters or set pieces. SønderjyskE had to play 120 minutes Thursday night to eliminate Strømsgodset in Europa League. A great result, but not a lot of resting ahead of this match, and SønderjyskE cannot brag about a big squad depth. We will probably see them rotate a bit here, and it cannot avoid having a cost in terms of quality. SønderjyskE are however a team that always shows great commitment, so they won’t just take it easy.

It is difficult to guess what SønderjyskE will arrive with as they also have a Europa League next week. Normally, this would be away win for me given the price, but just too many uncertainties. Instead, a prefer picking this as low scoring. Horsens were the team with most clean sheets in the 1st Divison last season (17) and SønderjyskE are also defensively solid and perhaps not overly energetic on Sunday.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.83 at Unibet

Lyngby-OB

Sunday 24/7 14.00

Lyngby got the most difficult start in their return to the Superliga. It was no surprise that they ended up losing away to FC Copenhagen. The result 3-0 suggests that there is still some way to go for the promoted club. They have made some fine signings, but overall they still need to adjust to playing at a higher level. OB did not get a good result in the opener. 0-0 against Silkeborg at home was not impressive, but if you look behind the score, OB did actually play a fine match. They won the shooting statistic 23-8, the opposition goalkeeper had a great day and striker Festersen even missed a penalty. OB created the chances you could expect, but did not take advantage. Another positive was the new defence with Tverskov, Pereira and Petersen, which looked quite solid and did not give away major chances. Only concern is the midfield, which might lack some creativity, but let’s see – OB did created chances even though in the first game. OB have just sold defender/midfielder Skulason to Lokeren. It is a loss, but Skulason was never a key player in OB, despite of his international merits for Iceland. There have been some concerns regarding the fitness of defender Petersen and striker Jacobsen, but both are set to play.

Lyngby have made some fine signings during the summer break, but overall they are still a promoted club and expected to take a position in the lower half. OB on the other hand have fine chances of clinching a top 6 position and showed good signs in the first match. I hold OB as favourite here and even believe there should be value down to 2.30. It is of course vital that Petersen and Jacobsen will play as both are key for OB, but I expect that to be the case.

Recommendation: 2 (AH -0.5) – 2.50 at Pinnacle

Silkeborg-Brøndby

Sunday 24/7 16.00

UPDATE: Unfortunately, the worst thing happened for this bet as Brøndby were forced to play 120 minutes on Thursday in the Europa League with several players looking very tired at the end. The extra 30 minutes will undoubtedly make this match more of a challenge, so it limits the value of this bet.
I think Silkeborg are happy with 1 point against OB in the first round after returning to the Superliga (0-0). Silkeborg were quite lucky. Goalkeeper Nørgaard had two terrific stops and OB missed a penalty. Silkeborg on the other hand did not create much and were largely happy just to defend. Silkeborg allowed 12 shots from the penalty box. This is a quite high number and under normal circumstances you would expect the opponent to score at least once if not more with that number of chances. I am not all too impressed by Silkeborg. I only think they have Skov as a real offensive threat and defensively they are decent, but not unbreakable. Brøndby are on a high at the moment. They 
have smashed all opposition until now with their aggressive style of playing. They demolished a hapless Esbjerg side 4-0 in the opener, winning shots on target 12-0. So Brøndby enter in fine form with high morale here. The only concern is the influence of Europa League. Brøndby will play return game against Scottish Hibernian Thursday, and this could have an influence on the match on Sunday in terms of tired players or some kind of rotation.

Silkeborg looked destined for the lower spots, while Brøndby’s performances (and budget) suggest they will be a top 3 team this season. The match against Hibernian could have an influence, but I still think we will see a strong and motivated Brøndby side here. I expected odds below 2.00 for away win, so I will happily take the odds on offer here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH -0.5) – 2.24 at Pinnacle

FC Nordsjælland-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 24/7 18.00

FC Nordsjælland played a splendid opening match beating Viborg 4-0 away. It surprised many as FC Nordsjælland were pretty bad last season, but the return of striker Ingvartsen from injury combined with the signing of offensive midfielder Fellah seem to have improved the offensive. Defensively, the young players have had some more time to evolve and it seems to work. I still believe FC Nordsjælland have quite a way to go, but they do seem somewhat stronger than last season. A concern for this match is the injury of left back Pedersen, who has played strongly of late. FC Midtjylland should have won their opener against Randers (2-2), but they failed to finish the game off. Despite their dominance, I was slightly disappointed, as I think they have more potential than they showed. It is a loss that striker Pusic is likely to be out here with an injury as he is the most consistent striker in the squad. A positive thing is the return to great form of winger Pione Sisto. He finally seems to have overcome groin injuries, which allows him to reach a high level. He will be the guy to shut down for FC Nordsjælland. FC Midtjylland will play Europa League next Thursday, but I don’t think they will rotate for it.

FC Nordsjælland have won the last six home games (including cup games) against FC Midtjylland! FC Midtjylland seem to hate playing against FC Nordsjælland on the league’s only artificial pitch. It would be obvious to pick FC Nordsjælland then, but I just don’t think the price is attractive given they face a stronger opponent. Instead, I will pick this out as an over match. Both teams have proven great offensive strength lately and seem a bit stronger in that part of the pitch.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.04 at SBOBet

Randers-AaB

Sunday 24/7 20.00

Randers got an excellent result at FC Midtjylland in the opening round (2-2), but they were super efficient as they scored on the only two shots they had on target. Randers were also limited to only two shots in the penalty box, which is very low. It shows that Randers were not on top offensively, and especially key striker Ishak looked short of form, possibly due to just returning from an injury. Defensively, Randers played okay, but overall I am not too impressed with the quality of the defence. Especially, central defender Agesen seems to be a weak point. AaB had a slightly disappointing start to the season with a 1-1 result against Horsens. AaB dominated in periods, but not as much as you could expect against a promoted club on own turf. AaB have made several changes compared to last season, so it is natural that they need some time – but they also look weaker. I am still uncertain regarding the true quality of this AaB side, but they do not look like a top 3 team.

Two teams that looks significantly weaker than last season. I really find this match difficult to assess, but I think the bookies got it somewhat right as Randers on home turf deserve to be small favourites. Nothing stands out as particularly valuable, but the draw could be a final result that both teams can accept.

Idea: X – 3.40 at Betfair Sportsbook