Week 7 round-up

A good win if you look at the results. If you look at the matches won, we were actually really lucky. Lyngby deserved to win against FC Nordsjælland, but Nordsjælland had the marginals that Lyngby had in the first matches. AaB had a moment of brilliance in an otherwise pretty even match against AGF and finally FC Copenhagen were not as superior against Brøndby as expected. However, the weekend ended with two successful recommendations and a push for the Tip of the Week. This is however I weekend to remember for next week, where some great picks probably fail. That is betting. Not good spots this time around. Nordsjælland had dropped initially, but closing marked seem to disagree with me. Copenhagen were a good pick according to the market, while AaB ended up being a really bad pick. AaB were lining up worse than expected due to injuries, while AGF found a good solution for the defensive issues.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Lyngby-FC Nordsjælland 2 +0

Our pick: 2.33

Closing odds: 2.37

Brøndby-FC Copenhagen 2 +0 (TOTW)

Our pick: 1.73

Closing odds: 1.62

AaB-AGF 1

Our pick: 1.88

Closing odds: 2.13

Week 7 Superliga previews

Randers-Silkeborg

Friday 26/8 18.00

Randers did not have the best match last weekend, but surely had the chances to win (1-1 at FC Nordsjælland). It was clear that they suffered in the centre of the pitch without their two normal central midfielders (Allansson and Poulsen) and they will both miss out here too. However, it is much easier to be dominated by FC Nordsjælland’s midfield than Silkeborg’s so it probably won’t be the same big issue here. Striker Ishak finally returns after a longer absence and he could add some firing power as Lundberg seems without confidence (missed a penalty and a huge chance in the last match). Silkeborg are really not poorly. They have been beaten heavily a few times and they are not playing with confidence. They give away easy chances and are not efficient on the chances they have. However, it is also important to note that they have the lowest scoring percentage and saving percentage – both numbers seem very low, and we should expect them to be a bit luckier in the future. However, they lack offensive power without the injured winger Skov, while they have goalkeeper issues as first choice Nørgaard is injured.

All Randers matches this season has been pretty tight – one goal as the maximum goal difference and it proves that they are solid but not creating fireworks. Silkeborg have had some pretty bad matches, but also managed two draws and three away games. I expect them to be very focused on the defensive aspect, which should make it difficult for Randers. I think under 2.5 goals could be interesting – I don’t see Randers winning as a good bet given the price.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.00 at SBOBet

Lyngby-FC Nordsjælland

Friday 26/8 20.15

Lyngby have done really well when looking at the table where they are placed in the top half, but if you look at their fundamental stats they are not so good. They don’t dominate their matches in terms of chances, they have a large portion of shots from outside the box and they have been incredibly efficient. Lyngby have scored on 45% of their shots on target, which is way above the league average. This should regress to the mean and if their shot production does not increase, they will start to lose matches. Squad-wise the situation is pretty good with winger Larsen returning from the Olympics and central defender Tauber returning from a minor injury. Lyngby have a fine side for a promoted club, but let us not forget that they are just that: a promoted club. FC Nordsjælland have had a tough start to the season. Injuries combined with the Olympic duty left their side pretty weak, but it has started to improve with defenders Maxsø and Gregor returning from the Olympics, while winger Mikkelsen is back from injury and other winger Asante has had a bit more time to adapt to his new club. FC Nordsjælland played well against Randers last week, and they are surely on the right track, but their start has also been really bad and their fundamental stats are not better than Lyngby – they have just not been as lucky.

I see this match as fairly even, maybe with Lyngby as a small favourite given the home advantage, but I really see Lyngby as overrated at the moment. Market has moved quite a bit already, but I still see some value in the away side.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 2.33 at Pinnacle

SønderjyskE-Esbjerg

Sunday 28/8 12.00

SønderjyskE were handed a tough blow on Thursday. They were up 2-0 against Sparta Prague and just had to avoid conceding three goals in order to clinch a remarkable Europa League group stage spot. However, destiny was cruel to SønderjyskE who played a good match, but conceded three goals from set pieces (something that SønderjyskE are normally excellent at containing) and were eliminated by a goal five minutes before the final whistle. It will be mentally tough to rebound here, especially due to their league efforts being in ruins due to the focus on Europa League. Players are also likely to be tired here and SønderjyskE could be without a few starters. Esbjerg are experiencing an improvement in form. They earned their first win in last round and this should really boost their confidence. They look stronger in the centre of the pitch with the return of Jeppe Andersen, but they still lack some power in defence and attack, although I am starting to see some potential in the new centre back Nordvik. Esbjerg will welcome back winger Mabil from ban and he is set to bring some pace on the flanks.

SønderjyskE normally have good control against Esbjerg as they have not lost in the last six head-to-head matches. However, this is likely to be a bit more difficult given the preparations. I still think SønderjyskE are the stronger here, but Esbjerg surely have a good chance. The market has moved a bit already, but I still think there could be slim value in the away win. 

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 2.43 at Pinnacle

OB-Horsens

Sunday 28/8 14.00

OB have received a lot of criticism as fans and experts expected them to collect more points. However, I think the jury might be a bit harsh on them. They only lost one match this season and it was against a efficient Esbjerg side. They have played several tight matches, where they rightly could argue that they deserved to win, but the matches have finished in draws. Of course, it is concerning that the defence have given up too many goals, but it is important to remember that it is a new backline and they need time. Offensively, OB have lacked the usual efficiency of striker Jakobsen, but I think the offensive production is fine. OB have had some injury issues, left back Pereira is set to be out here, but it is good news that central midfielder Makrini is set to return here. Horsens have had a really good start given expectations. They have proved that they are fairly strong defensively. Offensively, I don’t think they are strong – and stats also suggest that they have been aided by above-sustainable efficiency. However, it is important never to underestimate Horsens as they will always put in a great effort and they have been particularly strong in the last minutes.

A match between two sides with the same harvest in terms of points, but a different deserved harvest if you ask me. I think OB will start to get a bit more out of their fine offensive production, while I don’t think Horsens can continue to be fortunate. I think the bookies are almost correct in the price setting, but I sense a slim piece of value in the home win here.

Idea: 1 – 1.83 at Sportingbet

Brøndby-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 28/8 16.00

This will be exciting as it is a match between the best two sides in the league currently. Brøndby have performed way above expectations and their aggressive style has certainly worked out well with many sides unable to do anything against it – partly the reason they won 7-0 against AGF last weekend! However, I think they could face issues against a good side like FC Copenhagen that should be able to play around the pressure. Brøndby are also a bit challenged on the fitness, having played against Panathinaikos just three days prior with the best eleven. FC Copenhagen have just reached the Champions League group stage, so morale is high. It will be interesting to see if they can transmit this to the league, where they have lacked a bit of focus lately. However, they are the strongest side in the league. They are incredibly strong at protecting own penalty box (leading the league by a distance on avoiding shots from the penalty box) and on the other hand they have some excellent offensive weapons.

Brøndby’s chaotic and aggressive style seems to work excellent against inferior opponents, but I have my doubts against a well-organised side with stronger players. Brøndby’s defence is nothing spectacular and in my opinion their style is attack is the best defence. Even though you should not underrate the importance of the home field advantage here, I think that this is a match that FC Copenhagen should win. Draw is a real risk here, so important to have this covered.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0) – 1.73 at SBOBet

AaB-AGF

Sunday 28/8 18.00

AaB have had a really impressive start to the season. You could not expect that after losing several key players in the summer break, but their new signings have really delivered from the start. They have been lucky too though and their scoring efficiency is unsustainably high. However, you get the impression that they will only be stronger at dominating matches, the more time they get, so a better match domination could be able to compensate for an expected decline in finishing efficiency. AaB are experiencing a pretty good squad condition and the morale is high after six games without a loss. AGF will seek to rebound quickly after an embarrassing home loss 0-7 against Brøndby. Yes, they received an early red card, but you should never lose 0-7 in front of own fans. Adding to insult, AGF have sold two players during the week. Left back Christensen and the vital central midfielder Jönsson. Two players with a high work rate. Instead, AGF seem to continue signing non-Danish players – for me this is a recipe for failure if you offload all the local players and bring in mercenaries. AGF have serious issues on the left back here with the departure of Christensen and the suspension of Khodzhaniazov – they are forced to use a player out of position. Goalkeeper Jovanovic could return from injury.

Two teams at each end of the morale scale. AaB will be set to put AGF under pressure here, and I doubt that AGF can rebound. I see AaB as the stronger side here, and I think there should value down to 1.80 here.

Recommendation: 1 – 1.88 at Pinnacle

Viborg-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 28/8 20.00

I have had a good feeling about Viborg lately, and they proved it with their 5-1 win in Silkeborg. They are really a good side, when all players are fit. They are solid at the back, have a very defensive central midfield which is excellent for the defensive protection. Furthermore, they can invest a lot of players in defensive tasks since their offensive players, the wingers and strikers are capable of creating something on their own. A really enjoy watching the likes of Kamper, Thychosen, Deble and Park make something happen. However, it is also clear that Viborg tend to fade when one of these players are not ready. In order to keep the opponents at bay, they need to have the best offensive weapons available. For me, Viborg are playing like a top 6 team, and looking at their defensive stats, only FC Copenhagen have allowed fewer shots from the penalty box. FC Midtjylland are experiencing their biggest crisis for a long period. They cannot really get their game to flow, they have just been knocked out in the Europa League after a poor performance, and there is a lot of talk about the head coach in risk of being fired.  They have a strong side though, also way stronger than the side of Viborg, but the players don’t seem to working in the same direction. I have the feeling that some of the expensive players are mostly working for own success rather than team success. Yes, they have signed Rafael van der Vaart, but I don’t think he will make a difference as he is out of fitness. With that being said, you should not underestimate the offensive capabilities of FC Midtjylland – only Brøndby and FC Copenhagen are better at creating chances from opposing penalty boxes.

It is two teams that really dislike each other in the battle for Central Jutland. It will be very tense! I think Viborg have good chances of getting something here, but given the prices the bookies surely acknowledge the poor status of FC Midtjylland. Therefore I will only select this as an idea as I feel that the value is marginal.

Idea: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.92 at Pinnacle

Week 6 round-up

Pretty good weekend for the recommendations, not so good if you count in the three missed ideas. However, the main aim is to make the recommendations profitable and they were. Horsens won an even encounter against Lyngby to make the Tip of the Week a winner. It has been a really good season for the Tip of the Week and the other recommendations. Let us hope it continues, but the fundamental stats are good as around 3/4 of all our recommendations have had lower closing odds (also the case this week), something that is essential if you want to beat the market in a fairly liquid market like the Danish Superliga.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

FC Nordsjælland-Randers 2

Our pick: 2.10

Closing odds: 2.14

Horsens-Lyngby 1 +0.25 (TOTW)

Our pick: 1.88

Closing odds: 1.72

Silkeborg-Viborg 2 -0.25

Our pick: 1.99

Closing odds: 1.93

Esbjerg-OB 1 +0.5

Our pick: 1.81

Closing odds: 1.65

Week 6 Superliga previews

FC Nordsjælland-Randers

Friday 19/8 18.00

FC Nordsjælland have had a rough start to the season – 1 opening win followed by 4 losses. FC Nordsjælland have been poor, really poor – largely fuelled by a long list of important absences. The situation is starting to look better in terms of squad status with Olympic defenders Maxsø and Gregor just returning from Rio. They are probably a bit tired after just arriving, but they should be fit to play, which should be a boost to a backline that have looked quite vulnerable. Offensively, FC Nordsjælland still have some major issues with winger Mikkelsen out and John just offloaded to Turkey. John was a really important player, who could create something on his own, but he obviously lacked motivation. FC Nordsjælland have just signed a new offensive player in Asante from Stabæk, but should only play a minor role after just arriving. Randers have had a much better start and they have also won the last three. They have not been much better than their opponents, but they have managed to win some tight matches. They still struggle a bit with absences, but striker Ishak and left back Marxen returns here. Unfortunately, central midfielder Allansson is out with injury, meaning that Randers will start with two back-up’s in the central midfield. Apart from this, Randers look decent and significantly stronger offensively.

FC Nordsjælland are not looking good. They don’t create much and the majority of the attempts they have are from outside the box. They have a poor history against Randers (lost 4 out of last 5) and really hate their physical style here. I like Randers here, although their central midfield issues raise some concerns.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.10 at Tipico

Horsens-Lyngby

Friday 19/8 20.15

Battle between two promoted sides. Horsens are yet to win a match, but with 4 draws and 1 loss, they have proved difficult to beat. They have actually conceded quite a lot of chances, but own offensive efficiency have been crucial. They will probably start to lose more matches, but this should be a match, where they have good chances as they played even matches against Lyngby last season. Horsens welcome back captain Nielsen in defence. Lyngby have been even more efficient than Horsens. Lyngby have only had 12 shots on target, but scored 7 goals – a crazy stat. Defensively, they have done okay, but when their shooting regress to the mean, they will start to lose more. Lyngby will be without central defender Tauber, but alternative Jonasson has just returned from injury.

Lyngby have managed some impressive results, but in truth they have just been insanely efficient. Yes, they have a fine team, which is probably just a bit stronger than Horsens, but I really don’t see that large difference.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.88 at Pinnacle

FC Copenhagen-AaB

Saturday 20/8 18.30

FC Copenhagen are a level above the rest. Even their B-team is better than almost every opponent. This will probably be tested here as head coach Solbakken already announced that he will rotate due to the more important Champions League return leg on Wednesday. However, FC Copenhagen’s should still field a very strong team here. AaB have had a good start to the season with 11 points in 5 matches. They have won some tight matches and been very efficient. They need to improve their game, otherwise their results will deteriorate. AaB will welcome back defender Blåbjerg and winger Børsting from the Olympics, but not sure any of them will be in the starting line-up here. FC Copenhagen have scored ten goals in the last two home games against AaB, so this is no favourite opponent for AaB. AaB’s problem is that they are not a team that has a defensive strategy, so when they face FC Copenhagen they struggle as they are not so competent when being under heavy pressure.

Normally, I would back FC Copenhagen at the current odds, but given that they will rotate with certainty I don’t dare. Yes, they have some incredibly strong reserves, but there is still a difference in whether they change on 4 positions or 11. Best solution is to wait for line-ups. Until then I think over could be worth a shot. As noted, AaB are not so good at defending, while they are indeed capable of scoring.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.84 at Pinnacle

Silkeborg-Viborg

Sunday 21/8 13.00

Silkeborg finally scored last weekend against Horsens – well actually, they could not stop and ended up scoring 3 goals to get a draw. The addition of Helenius in attack surely helped as he creates a space due to the opponents having a lot of respect for him. Silkeborg will also welcome back winger Skov from the Olympics. He is one of the few players in Silkeborg with the ability to create something on his own. Silkeborg look very weak defensively, although the current very low saving percentage (52%) should improve over time. Viborg are a fine team. They are solid at the back and quite defensive-minded with offensive strength through good wingers and quick attackers. They are an excellent counter-attacking team. They underperformed a bit in the last round, where it was evident they missed winger Kamper. It is unclear whether he will return here, but he is very important as alternative Bruhn is far from similar quality. In attack, they have the speedy Deble. He will be a challenge to contain for Silkeborg.

I think Viborg have a team that is somewhat stronger than Silkeborg, especially if Kamper returns. Silkeborg do not look good at the back, and I think they will struggle against a speedy player like Deble.

Recommendation: 2 (AH -0.25) – 1.99 at Pinnacle
Update: Silkeborg winger Skov and goalkeeper Nørgaard both set to miss the match. Replacement keeper Fæste also injured, so third choice Rinke set to play. Good news for our Viborg bet.

AGF-Brøndby

Sunday 21/8 16.00

AGF should be closer to the strongest here with central midfielder Jönsson coming back from the Olympics and fellow midfielder Olsen likely to return from injury. Therefore, we should see a AGF side close to its strongest here, although striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen probably need a few matches to be back at his best after a longer injury break. AGF have played quite good and they are candidates for top 6 this season. Brøndby have had a tremendous start to the season and although I expected their success to some degree be short-lived based on the excitement with the new aggressive strategy under head coach Zorniger, I must say that they continue to impress and the fundamental stats are also strong. Only FC Copenhagen have better underlying stats when it comes to dominating matches. It is true that Brøndby have not had the worst schedule, but they have also done well in Europa League. The question is whether they will rest players on Sunday due to Europa League. It could be the case, which will surely hurt Brøndby as they lack the squad depth of FC Copenhagen.

Odds are drifting on AGF due to people speculating in Brøndby rotating. I think it could be the case, but I don’t want to invest in the current home odds. Instead, I like the draw here. It is a typical draw match with a home team that is slightly weaker than the away team and a situation where both will be satisfied with a draw.

Idea: X – 3.57 at Pinnacle

FC Midtjylland-SønderjyskE

Sunday 21/8 18.00

FC Midtjylland are not playing particularly well at the moment. I think they lack confidence and they are not playing as a team. They just suffered a 0-1 home loss to a smaller Turkish side in the Europa League, which will certainly be detrimental to confidence and qualification chances. They could rest players here, but given the first leg result, they could also decide to focus on the league. I think they have really strong material, but they need a player to pick up the magic wand from Sisto who went to Celta Vigo. SønderjyskE have been terrible in the league, but flying in Europa League. The runner-up of last season have only earned 2 points in 5 matches. They have deserved a bit more, but they have not been good though. They have struggled a bit with injuries lately due to their tough schedule, and they will probably rest a few players here. They will be without offensive ace Bechmann, which severely hurt their attack. They are strong on set pieces and this will be their main threat here.

No bet currently as there is too much uncertainty regarding the line-ups. If I had to make a bet, I would probably pick under here. None of the teams are in the best shape offensively and the line is pretty tall.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.17 at SBOBet

Esbjerg-OB

Monday 22/8 19.00

Esbjerg are improving, but they lack some confidence and some offensive power – yeah, and defensive strength. They will welcome back goalkeeper Højbjerg and midfielder Nielsen from the Olympics, but none of them are set to make a large difference. Esbjerg are without winger Mabil and they could have used his speed on the flanks, something that they now only have Mensah to do. However, they are starting to be better organised, which could be due to head coach Todd being able to make his mark. If you look at the players, they are on paper quite good, but they have just not made it work on the pitch yet. OB have not been as good as expected, but they have also been a bit unlucky not to earn more points so far. The win against FC Nordsjælland last weekend could get them started. They are without central midfielder Thomasen and striker Festersen and midfielder El Makrini are doubtful but likely to play. They welcome back backs Desler and Barrett from the Olympics and especially the former is likely to make a return to the line-up.

Esbjerg are a top half team if you look at money invested in the squad, but they are not playing as one. They are starting to get closer though, and they are certainly not easy to beat in Esbjerg as AGF experienced two weeks ago. OB have some injury concerns and have not played outstanding until now. Yes, they are stronger than Esbjerg, but they have been made too big favourites given that this is no easy away match for them. If Festersen and El Makrini are out, this is a really good bet.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +0.5) – 1.81 at Pinnacle

Week 5 round-up

Week 5 was the first round of the season without profit. Unfortunately, you can't make profit every week. We had good spots, so the picks seemed to be good from that perspective, but some of the matches turned out differently. I was particularly disappointed about SønderjyskE, but they were hampered by late absences (Kroon and Bechmann), while I expected Viborg to do more, but they were also hampered by a late absence for vital winger Kamper. That is how it is with picks before the match day.

Here are the spots of our recommendations:

Viborg-Randers 1 +0 (TOTW)

Our pick: 2.10

Closing odds: 2.02

Lyngby-AGF 2 +0

Our pick: 2.17

Closing odds: 2.16

OB-FC Nordsjælland 1

Our pick: 1.75

Closing odds: 1.57

Brøndby-SønderjyskE 2 +0.75

Our pick: 1.88

Closing odds: 1.83

Week 5 Superliga previews

Viborg-Randers

Friday 12/8 18.00

I started the season recommending Viborg to lose. They did lose 0-4 and looked pretty bad, but things have changed since. Their new midfield have played more matches together and looks a lot stronger already. The early defensive issues with injuries are almost gone with left back Pallesen likely to return from injury. But the most important thing is probably the return of striker Serge Deble. He was subbed-in in the last 45 minutes against OB and made a difference. I expect him to be back the full speed here and he should be a handful for the Randers defense with his speed. Randers have started the season in decent manor. They have not been spectacular, but they are undoubtedly a solid side. They have conceded quite many shots from own penalty box, so I think they are a bit lucky with the points gathered so far. Randers have some issues ahead of this match. Left back Marxen is banned, while central midfielder Poulsen is still expected to be out with injury. Key striker Ishak is at the Olympics, while creative winger Masango appears to be unwilling to play for the club, because he wants to leave. Randers have just signed two quality strikers in George and Pourie, but I think both will need some time to be assets for Randers. Despite all the mentioned things, Randers should still field a solid team with many experienced players.

Viborg have improved radically since the opener. I currently see fine potential in the side, and if they are indeed without absences here, I think we will see two sides of quite even quality. If you calculate in the home advantage, I think Viborg should be favorites here, and I actually like this bet quite a lot – enough to let it be the Tip of the Week. I also like Over here – so far 2/3 of all matches have ended over – with no risk of direct relegation in the new league system, teams are allowed to play with less caution.

Tip of the Week: 1 (AH +0) – 2.10 at Pinnacle

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.25 at Tipico

Lyngby-AGF

Friday 12/8 20.15

Lyngby have had a great start in terms of points. 7 points in 4 matches is surely a lot more than the promoted club expected, but they have made some fine signings. However, they have also had a bit of luck on the way to success. In fact, Lyngby have scored 5 goals on their last 6 shots on target. That is quite a statistic and pretty unsustainable. The concerning thing is that Lyngby have not created a lot more offensively than what they have scored on, but instead concede quite a lot of chances. They have almost conceded 10 shots from the penalty box on average per game, which is quite a lot (3rd highest in the league). This is also the reason I have Lyngby noted as the “luckiest” team so far. AGF have been a bit better. They have played 4 tight matches and earned 7 points, which is quite good. They still have a pretty low saving percentage, which was also the problem last season, so I does not look like the change of goalkeeper from Rasmussen to Jovanovic have had an imminent effect on the stats. Rasmussen is set to be back here after Jovanovic picked up an injury in the last match. I also expect AGF to be without midfielders Olsen (injury), Pedersen (injury) and Jönsson (Olympics). It is bad news to be without three regulars in the midfield, but AGF have good squad depth here, so they should be able to cover it to some extent. The most positive news for AGF is the likely return of striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen. He is probably the most important player for AGF and although he probably won’t play 90 minutes, he will surely be an improvement to an AGF attack that has been a bit weak.

Market has already shifted quite a bit towards Lyngby. It is no surprise given their good results and the many injuries for AGF. However, I must admit that I think they are overrated here. They are a promoted club with poor fundamental stats. Good results fuels confidence, but still I doubt they can continue their impressive run. AGF are a fine team even with absences and with Duncan back, I think this should be close to an even match.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 2.17 at Pinnacle

Horsens-Silkeborg

Saturday 13/8 16.00

Horsens have had a decent start with only one loss – unfortunately the remaining three matches have ended in draws, so they are still at the bottom. It is as expected for a promoted side. Horsens have shown a big passion and looked particularly strong towards the end of the matches. They have played pretty defensively and are the team with the lowest ball possession in the league. They might struggle if they are to dictate the match. They will be without defender Matthias Nielsen who is banned. The other promoted side, Silkeborg, have been poor – but also very unlucky. That they have not scored yet is quite a mystery as they have had 25 shots in the penalty including one penalty. They miss their offensive ace, winger Skov who is at the Olympics, and without him it is difficult to see who will find the net. With that being said, they looked stronger than Horsens in the 1st Division – and the two squads have not changed radically since.

Horsens probably have more confidence at the moment, but I don’t see a huge difference in squad quality. I would pick Silkeborg at current odds, but only idea as it concerns me a bit to back a team without their offensive ace and without a goal scored in four matches.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.5) – 1.83 at Pinnacle

FC Copenhagen-FC Midtjylland

Saturday 13/8 18.30

FC Copenhagen were a bit too relaxed against SønderjyskE last weekend and it left them with only one point. I don’t think they will take this match relaxed. Home match against the nearest rival for the title, they will be out to prove who is the strongest and I expect to see FC Copenhagen in the strongest formation despite playing a Champions League qualifier in the following week. FC Copenhagen are by far the strongest team in the league – their shots on target ratio through the first four matches sits at a crazy 82.2%. FC Midtjylland just signed Rafael van der Vaart – quite a signing! But he is 33 years old and not in form, and I doubt we will see him just yet. FC Midtjylland have a strong team, but it was severely weakened with the departure of Sisto to Celta Vigo. Without him, I think they lack some of the X-factor that can make them surprise against FC Copenhagen. Furthermore, it is obvious that FC Midtjylland miss defensive midfielder Sparv (long-term injury) to keep balance in the midfield.

FC Copenhagen in super condition without injury concerns against FC Midtjylland that have not had the best run of late (3-3 against Brøndby and losing to 10-men Hungarian Videoton in Europa League). I am pretty sure that FC Copenhagen will take this, but sadly the bookies fully agree with me. This leaves us with a match, where I don’t like the 1X2 market. I would prefer over here – the last 6 H2H’s in Parken have ended over 2.5 goals and we have seen a start to the league with many goals.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.82 at Unibet

OB-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 14/8 16.00

OB have not had the best start to the year. Their main problem has been offensive efficiency. They have had a good chance creation and should have had better results. They have called up a full squad apart from Desler and Barrett who is at the Olympics, but only the former is a regular. The most important is the return of striker Anders Jacobsen as he is probably the best finisher in the league. FC Nordsjælland are not looking good at the moment. They don’t dominate their matches in terms of chances and the shots they have are taken from distance as they have problems getting into the penalty area. Adding to this, they have a ton of absences plus a very young squad. They are without offensive profiles in wingers John and Mikkelsen plus offensive midfielder Fellah – they don’t look frightening! Defensively, it is not good either with central defenders Maxsø and Gregor at the Olympics and veteran left back Mtiliga out too.

Difficult day ahead for FC Nordsjælland. I think there should be some value in the home win as I believe OB should really dominate against a young and absence hit FC Nordsjælland team.

Recommendation: 1 – 1.75 at Sportingbet

Brøndby-SønderjyskE

Sunday 14/8 18.00

Brøndby have really started the season impressively. The new aggressive style under head coach Zorniger seems to fit the squad nicely. The strategy is also very demanding, so it will be great for Brøndby to have had a whole week of rest before this match. Brøndby have been spectacular in some of the matches and have done well in the Europa League too, but it is also important to acknowledge that they have had a rather easy schedule playing against the weakest sides in the league (apart from FC Midtjylland). However, they have had a solid offensive production (Pukki scoring 6 goals in last 2 matches!) combined with surprisingly good performances defensively (yes, they conceded three goals in the last match, but they are not giving away many chances). SønderjyskE have had a tough start to the league. It is obvious that they are not used to playing two tournaments at once, and the success in Europa League seems to have had a negative effect in the Superliga, where players seem to have lacked the last energy. Energy is important for SønderjyskE as they use aggression to compensate for their lack of technical and individual skills. Despite the poor harvest in terms of points (2 points from 4 matches), it is not that bad as all matches have been very tight – but as I have mentioned before, their insanely high scoring efficiency should not be able to last and until now their offensive efficiency has actually been lower than the league average (ranked 1st last season). Important for SønderjyskE is the return of central midfielder Janus Drachmann. SønderjyskE should be able to field a strong and fresh team here after no midweek matches.

This will be a very interesting battle. I expect Brøndby to be on the attack, while SønderjyskE will sit back and lurk on counter-attacks. I don’t see an easy win for Brøndby here, as SønderjyskE are competent at the back and should be able to hurt Brøndby on counter-attacks and set pieces. I prefer the away side here betting wise, and Unibet offers a price, which I find to be value. It will be tight, so I like to cover a bit with the +0.75 line.

Recommendaton: 2 (AH +0.75) – 1.88 at Unibet

AaB-Esbjerg

Monday 15/8 19.00

AaB have started the season strongly in terms of results with 8 points from 4 games. They have not been as good as last autumn though - the matches played have all been very tight. AaB are clearly not as strong as last season yet, but they have made some interesting signings. Winger Meilinger and central defender Holgersson have already had great importance scoring vital late goals. AaB have just made another signing in Peruvian offensive player Edison Flores – expectations are high, but he is only set to have a minor role here. AaB will be without two Olympic players: central defender Blåbjerg and winger Børsting. Both are regulars but not vital. AaB should be able to hurt Esbjerg’s defense with the pace of Bassogog, especially if the match open up and space is left behind the defense. Esbjerg have had a terrible 2016, but the last match indicated better times ahead. Crucial for success is the return of central midfielder Jeppe Andersen (returned in last match). He brings offensive vision and is really solid on the ball – something that Esbjerg have lacked when playing with two defensive central midfielders. Esbjerg still lack some power in the frontline with new signing McGrath not looking dangerous. Esbjerg depend on speedy winger Kevin Mensah to create some danger. Esbjerg will be without winger Mabil who is banned (new signing – red card in debut) and the two Olympics players goalkeeper Højbjerg and central midfielder Nielsen, while right back Johnson returns from sickness. Esbjerg don’t look particularly strong at the back though. They still need to improve their defensive organization, but the impression is that they are improving under head coach Todd.

AaB undoubtedly should be clear favorites, but they have not been outstanding until now – and the odds for home win are really low. We just have to go back to the final rounds of last season to find Esbjerg winning the same match 2-1 at spectacular odds 8.40. The odds are not as high this time around for the away win, but I still think that AaB are overrated here – I won’t to see more quality from them before backing them at odds ~1.50 – against a team with a similar if not larger wage budget. I go for higher odds X2 here as I think Esbjerg could easily lose with more than one if AaB just takes the lead why I don’t like the main Asian lines.

Idea: X2 – 2.75 at Bet365