Silkeborg-SønderjyskE

Friday 1/8 18.30

Silkeborg (11th) have had a rough start, facing FC Copenhagen and Brøndby, two of the main title candidates. The first match against FC Copenhagen offered some solid defending (0-0) while the next match at Brøndby was less impressive (2-0) with Silkeborg failing to find their game. In this match, Silkeborg will get more space. It will be interesting to see if they can find the net. They are the only team who have not scored so far, and they have not really looked dangerous. They have a solid team with many experienced players, and not any important injury concerns. Daniel A. Pedersen returns to the squad after having been sick, otherwise no squad news. SønderjyskE (9th) have also had a difficult start facing AaB and Esbjerg, the two best teams in the spring season. SønderjyskE managed to get two draws (0-0 and 1-1), which was very satisfying. Especially the defence has looked very strong, limiting the opponents to very few chances. Offensively SønderjyskE are struggling without Tommy Bechmann and winger Johan Absalonsen. Good news is that both players are in the squad for this match, although Bechmann is probably not fit for more than 20-30 minutes at the end. Regular midfielders Nikolaj Madsen and Daniel Jensen are still absent due to injuries.

On paper it is the obvious low scoring game between two teams that have looked best defensively. However, this match is very different to their previous matches this season, since they will get more space and probably try more offensively. Therefore we would not recommend an under bet. If anything, we would advice you to back SønderjyskE, who will benefit from the return of key players and have looked more convincing than Silkeborg thus far.

Idea: 2 (AH +0) – 2.15 at Ladbrokes

Leaguespy with detailed match information and expected line-ups provided by us:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=35105&a=33624

FC Vestsjælland-FC Copenhagen

Saturday 2/8 15.00

FC Vestsjælland (4th) played an outstanding game last weekend (3-1 against OB). They had OB on the heels for the entire first half and the win could easily have been bigger. New head coach, Michael Hansen, is practising a more offensive approach than his predecessor, and it clearly adds offensively. The only issue is the destabilizing effect it has on the FC Vestsjælland defence that was so solid last season. The defence has looked unconvincing in the first two matches of the season, allowing some stupid goals. FC Vestsjælland are expected to be without striker Tshibamba and left back Lumb, but these are not new injuries. Offensive midfielder Dal Hende is doubtful. FC Copenhagen (3rd) have added a lot of new players, and while the pre-season friendlies and the first match against Silkeborg showed signs of teething problems, the past two matches have indicated better days for FC Copenhagen. Last weekend’s win against 2-1 against FC Nordsjælland could easily have been bigger, while the 0-0 against Dnipro Dnipropetrovsk in Ukraine this Wednesday showed that the defence is rock solid (the goal against FC Nordsjælland was only due to a late (and very huge) mistake by goalkeeper Andersen). FC Copenhagen do undoubtedly have enough talent in the squad to win the league. It is just a question of when the engine really starts! FC Copenhagen will be without injured winger Gislason. Swedish international central defender Mikael Antonsson has just been added to the squad during the week and he could get his (comeback) debut here.

FC Vestsjælland deserve credit for their win last weekend, but it was really an easy win due to the poor state of OB. Against a stronger opponent like FC Copenhagen, FC Vestsjælland’s unspectacular attack of Festersen and Sørensen will find scoring more difficult. FC Copenhagen should take a win here. Home field advantage is not important, as FC Copenhagen will have strong support. The main risk is the effect of playing in Ukraine just three days prior, but the squad should be fit (and there are strong alternatives on the bench if some rotation is necessary). Under 2.5 goals is also interesting. Alternatively FC Copenhagen winning to nil.

Recommendation: 2 (AH -0.5) – 2.00 at Bet365

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.91 at Betsafe

OB-AaB

Saturday 2/8 17.00

OB (12th) have been horrendous so far. First they lost 1-2 at home to underdogs Hobro, then they were smashed 3-1 at FC Vestsjælland (scoreline was nice to OB). OB have lost some important and very experienced players during the break and the replacements have not exactly been impressive. The squad moral appears very low with players complaining in public. During the past week two rotation players have left the club by own demand (contract terminated!). To make matters worse OB are suffering from several injuries in the back, where normal right back Kryger and central defender Høegh are injured. These injuries could force OB to use an inexperienced 18 year old in the central defence (Emil Peter Jørgensen). Offensively OB will have to rely on wingers Emil Larsen and Rasmus Falk, but both have seemed very affected by the clubs poor state. AaB (2nd) impressed last weekend beating FC Midtjylland (2-0) despite injuries for several key players. The effect of all the injuries was however visible in the midweek home loss to Dinamo Zagreb (0-1) were especially the midfield was unconvincing. This is not surprising since AaB are struggling with injuries for Thomsen, Risgård and Würtz, all starters in last season’s championship team. Furthermore, left back Ahlmann is probably out for the match, with AaB being forced to use 19 year old Blåbjerg instead (did fine against Zagreb though). AaB might have Thomsen and Würtz back for this match although they will not be at their best. There is also the possibility that head coach Kent Nielsen will rest players ahead of the second leg against Zagreb.

OB are in a miserable state, troubled by injuries and poor moral. AaB are also bothered by injuries and have focus on Champions League qualifying. It makes this match very difficult to predict. Especially since it is very hard to tell how AaB will line-up at the moment. Therefore we would urge you to follow our updates on Twitter. If you do not have the patience, we would currently prefer betting on Both teams to score (BTTS): no, since none of the teams have looked frightening offensively so far.

Idea: BTTS no – 2.25 at Bet365

UPDATE: OB look to start in 3-4-3 (normally play 4-4-2). It is surely the formation where they can field the most good players in their right positions, but the system is probably not working perfectly from the start. AaB look to rest starters Kenneth Emil Petersen (central defender) and striker Anders K. Jacobsen, and youngster Kasper Pedersen and the rusty striker Nicklas Helenius will play instead. AaB with a very young team and some players that lacks match practice against a OB team in crisis is difficult to predict. Therefore no new recommendations here, but maybe latter on Twitter when line-ups are published.

FC Nordsjælland-Esbjerg

Sunday 3/8 17.00

FC Nordsjælland (5th) have three points in the first two matches. The impression has been mixed. Offensively, they have some very skilled players in the likes of wingers Uffe Bech and Joshua John, although they lack a striker in shape. Defensively, they look fragile. The departure of team captain, defensive midfielder Stokholm has surely had a negative impact. The young central defence of Runje and Gregor have committed many mistakes and is in our book one of the weakest central defences in the league. No relevant injury news. Esbjerg (10th) must be having déjà vu feeling. Last autumn Esbjerg were outstanding internationally and progressed from the group stage of Europa League, but with the side effect that Esbjerg hardly could win a league match and actually were beneath the relegation line at the winter break. So far, Esbjerg have earned only one point in two “easy” home matches against Randers and SønderjyskE. At the same time they have spent a lot of energy on Europa League. They just played in Poland on Thursday against Ruch Chorzow (0-0) in a match where Esbjerg rested some of the key players. They should be back here, and Esbjerg might be able to field close to the best eleven for once, unless head coach Frederiksen decides to rest some players for the second leg of the Europa League qualifier. In that case it will probably be the likes of Fellah and Pusic who have been struggling with minor injuries. Both are very important players, so it could have a big effect on the outcome of this match. Esbjerg will be without captain and central midfielder Hans-Henrik Andreasen.

The question is what Esbjerg will bring to this match. If they field the best eleven, FC Nordsjælland will face a tough task. FC Nordsjælland are a strong home team (artificial turf advantage) and should be better prepared physically and mentally. So, with the expectation of Esbjerg fielding less than the strongest team, we pick the home win. But we recommend awaiting more team news.

Idea: 1 – 2.44 at Betfair
 
Go to http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=35108&a=33624 for FREE match information, line-ups and statistics.

Hobro-Brøndby

Sunday 3/8 17.00

Hobro (8th) showed their limitations last weekend in Randers (losing 1-2). Hobro were unable to maintain an early lead, and gave away so many huge chances that 1-2 was quite amazing. It seems like the first win in Odense was primarily due to the poor state of Odense, than Hobro having Superliga quality. Hobro are simply not up to the pace and to easy to break down defensively. Offensively, they have the lone threat in the speedy Antipas and he will be eager to beat his former club. Otherwise, Hobro will rely on creating danger on set pieces with the tall defenders Egholm and Justesen. Brøndby (6th) have not really amazed yet. They won last weekend 2-0 against Silkeborg in a match they dominated from start to finish without sparkling. They really came down to earth with a 3-0 loss against Club Bruges on Thursday in Europa League. The defeat might have a positive effect on this match, since Brøndby will be eager to take revenge. Furthermore, it was especially the vulnerable defence that was challenged in Bruges, and Hobro will not be able to put the defence under anything near the same pressure here. Brøndby will be able to focus on the offence, where they have some skilled players in Makienok, Nuñez and Kahlenberg that will be difficult to handle for Hobro. Brøndby are probably still without striker Elmander and wingers Hjulsager and Szymanowski.

Hobro will play their first ever home game in the Superliga and all tickets for the away fans have been sold, so the match will be played in a good atmosphere. We doubt the home side will come away with anything here. The quality gap between them and Brøndby is simply too big and we are quite surprised by the price for an away win. If Randers could create so many huge chances against Hobro, we believe that the even stronger offense of Brøndby will be able to do the same. Over 2.5 goals is also interesting.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 2.00 at Bet365

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.95 at Unibet

UPDATE: Brøndby without Elmander, Hjulsager and Szymanowski as expected. Hasani is also absent. He has not been performing well thus far, so not necessarily, although it leaves Brøndby short  of natural wingers. 

FC Midtjylland-Randers

Monday 4/8 19.00

FC Midtjylland (7th) were a big disappointment last weekend in Aalborg (lost 2-0). A tactical change to a more defensive approach by head coach Riddersholm did not have the wanted effect, and Midtjylland ended up paying for it. For this match, we should expect seeing FC Midtjylland in their usual approach with strong midfielders Petter Andersson and Jakob Poulsen back in the starting formation. FC Midtjylland are a good team, especially at home as seen in the last home match vs. Brøndby (3-1). Central defender Erik Sviatchenko is still expected to be absent. Randers (1st) have had a brilliant start. They were very lucky in their first match in Esbjerg (scoring on their only shot on target), but in the last match against Hobro (2-1) they showed more promise. Had their attackers been a bit sharper, they would have won way bigger. Randers have a solid team: physically strong and very experienced. Only lack is a quality striker after Schwartz was sold in the break. In that light, the return of striker Brock-Madsen to the squad is positive. Randers will be brimming with confidence here.

FC Midtjylland are usually a difficult team for Randers. The speedy and technical players of Midtjylland often pose Randers significant problems. However, Randers should have a lot of confidence with should affect their game positively. Therefore we would not bet on FC Midtjylland at current odds. Instead, an over 2.5 goal bet could be interesting, since we would expect both teams to attack this match with a positive approach. Six out of the last seven H2H’s has gone over.

Recommendation: Over 2.5 goals – 2.025 at Bet365

Week 2 round-up (14/15)

A really good round with a total return of 6,01 units (+67% return). Surplus on our recommendation, ideas and our #Twitbets (remember to follow us on Twitter, where we post value bets, typically in the last hour before match start). Only one negatve thing and that was the lack of success for our Tip of the Week. We have missed out two weeks in a row, which is very disappointing. We still believe that our Tip of the Week should be able to earn a +10% return over a longer period. Stay tuned for bets for the next round!

FC Vestsjælland-OB

Friday 25/7 18.30

FC Vestsjælland (9th) suffered a devastating defeat against FC Nordsjælland where they threw away a 2-0 lead. Under the old coach, Ove Pedersen they were very strong at closing down a match which they led. The style of the new coach, Michael Hansen is more offensive and in this case it ended up costing. However, FC Vestsjælland looked strong for a large part of the match, and they are at least on the same level as last year. They do miss the offensive raids of the injured left wingback Michael Lumb, but other than that they are close to their best. OB (10th) could be facing a long season if the level they showed last weekend is their true level. Losing 1-2 at home to Hobro, the team rated the poorest in the league. They lack a quality striker. The only one they have, Darko Bodul, is ridiculously bad and his actions on the pitch look more like something that belongs in a circus (sorry!). The two OB profiles, the wingers Rasmus Falk and Emil Larsen, were unfocused and far from their best last weekend. Maybe this is not a coincidence, since several OB players are rumoured to leave the cash strapped club. OB will be without left back Diarra. This will create some changes. Central midfielder Skulason will cover the left back, while Busuladzic, Desler or O’Brien will enter in the central midfield. This should bring more power from the left side, but will weaken the centre. The last 3 H2H’s ended in two FC Vestsjælland wins and one draw, so FC Vestsjælland have the upper hand.

OB will have to rely on the mood of Larsen and Falk. Based on the last match, the mood is not at a high point right now, and we believe OB face a tough match against a solid FC Vestsjælland team that will deliver a powerful effort as always. The odds for home win has dropped remarkably since the market opened, but we believe FC Vestsjælland should be favourites, so still some value left.

To see the expected line-ups, injury information and more (Superligabets deliver the data), go to http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=34652&a=33624

Recommendation: 1 (DNB) – 1.95 at Ladbrokes

AaB-FC Midtjylland

Saturday 26/7 17.00

AaB (5th) got off to a disappointing start with a 0-0 match against SønderjyskE. The performance was very poor; AaB played way too slow and lacked offensive creativity after losing wingers Kasper Kusk (transfer) and Nicolaj Thomsen (injury). AaB only had four shots in the entire match and none of them were on target. They have some fine strikers in Spalvis, Jakobsen and Helenius (although Helenius needs some match practice), but if they don’t have anyone to provide the chances it will be difficult to score. AaB are still expected to be without Nicolaj Thomsen, and captain and central midfielder Rasmus Würtz. This leaves AaB with a midfield with only Risgård remaining from the four that played the most of last season. FC Midtjylland (1st) took an impressive 3-1 win against Brøndby. The win was quite impressive since Brøndby had looked strong in the pre-season matches. FC Midtjylland have a lot of strong offensive weapons, and when key midfielder Petter Andersson left the last match early with an injury, Rilwan Hassan replaced him. Hassan made an outstanding goal and this just shows the impressive offensive squad depth of FC Midtjylland. FC Midtjylland have benefitted from the return of defensive midfielder Izunna who was injured for most of the spring season. In total, FC Midtjylland look almost complete at the moment. Only the injured central defender Erik Sviatchenko could improve the starting eleven. Petter Andersson is doubtful for the match.

It is a match between the two clubs who had an intense battle for the championship title in spring. Since then, AaB have lost some key players, and the replacements are a level or two weaker. On the other hand, FC Midtjylland are improved compared to last season after the return of injured players, and at the moment they look significantly stronger than AaB. AaB do benefit from a strong home support, but apart from this we struggle to see why they should win this match.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 3.15 at Nordicbet

UPDATE: Andersson will start on the bench alongside Poulsen who has been a regular. Instead new signing Sparv enters along with Hassan.

FC Copenhagen-FC Nordsjælland

Saturday 26/7 19.30

FC Copenhagen (6th) are trying to bring together a bunch of new players. The players are strong, so the potential should be remarkable. But as seen in the last match against Silkeborg (0-0), playing with seven new players for the majority of the match is not easy. FC Copenhagen clearly lacked some familiarity and until they have that they could face some problems. Some of their players have some individual capabilities that mean that even on a bad day they could win. Central midfielder Franco Mussis returns from injury and will possible get his debut in this match. Winger Gislason is injured, but FC Copenhagen have a strong back-up in Kadrii. FC Nordsjælland (2nd) made a remarkable comeback against FC Vestsjælland. They were down 0-2 but ended up winning 3-2. The short striker Uffe Bech was outstanding and scored twice. Otherwise it was evident that FC Nordsjælland are also trying to find their style after having changed coach during the summer break. They are still bothered by some injuries for important offensive players like Søren Christensen (doubtful), Lasse Petry and Joshua John (doubtful). Currently their main threat is Bech and if FC Copenhagen manage to close him down, FC Nordsjælland will be severely limited offensively.

Until FC Copenhagen start to show that they are a united team, we will not recommend betting on them. FC Nordsjælland are not extraordinary especially when playing away, so the opposite outcome is not interesting either. Therefore, if we were to bet, we would go with the Under 2.5 goals, since FC Nordsjælland’s offense is limited and FC Copenhagen’s baby problems mainly hurts the offensive production.

For latest team news, expected line-ups and match stats, go to:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=34654&a=33624

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.10 at Tipico

Randers-Hobro

Sunday 17/7 17.00

Randers (4th) had luck on its side and combined it with an outstanding performance by the new keeper Karl Johan Johnsson in their first round win against Esbjerg (1-0). Esbjerg had 17 shots, while Randers only had 4. Randers were generally quite slow and the offense with Lundberg and Fall should not scare anyone at the moment. The defence is solid though, and it will possibly be improved with the return of left back Adama Tamboura. Hobro (3rd) are deemed the most certain team to be relegated in years. But the signing of striker/winger Quincy Antipas has increased their chances remarkably. Antipas was put on the pitch in the second half last weekend and created the goal that decided the match. He will give Hobro more points. Otherwise, Hobro impressed against OB. They were solid at the back and their passing game was decent. It is a local derby with only 25 km between the two cities.

Randers were poor in the first match, while Hobro were a pleasant surprise. However, we believe that it is too risky to gamble on a Hobro win here. A draw however seems more attractive. Randers are poor offensively, but solid defensively. And rival derbies have a tendency to be tight and physical.

Idea: X – 3.60 at Betsafe

Esbjerg-SønderjyskE

Sunday 17/7 19.00

Esbjerg (11th) must be feeling sick after losing to Randers on Monday (0-1). They dominated the match from start to finish and even had a goal wrongly disallowed. It was a bit of a surprise that Esbjerg managed to dominate since they had played a tough match in Kazakhstan a few days before. At the end of the game it was visible that the Esbjerg players were very fatigued. This is also a very likely scenario this Sunday. Esbjerg played another tough Europa League match on Thursday (won 1-0 and qualified to the next round). But Esbjerg showed once again that they currently lack some power in the front line. Striker Pusic is just slowly returning from an injury and that is visible in his performances. Esbjerg could be forced to rest a few players since they will play another Europa League match just a few days afterwards. Very important offensive players like Pusic and Fellah are unlikely to be capable of playing two matches per week currently. Furthermore, Esbjerg are plagued by injuries. Left backs Knudsen and Lucena are both injured, which forces Esbjerg to use players out of their natural position. Winger Casper Nielsen also left the Europa League match with an injury so Esbjerg is likely to line-up in a mediocre edition against SønderjyskE due to their limited squad depth. SønderjyskE (8th) played against AaB without a natural striker and that was probably the only reason that SønderjyskE did not win the match (0-0). They were better than AaB, but they lacked someone to decide the match. The important striker Tommy Bechmann is on his way back from injury but will probably not be ready for this match. The same is the situation with offensive midfielder Nikolaj Madsen and central midfielder Daniel Jensen. SønderjyskE look solid defensively.

If Esbjerg lined up in the strongest formation, they would be clear favourites. However, this is probably not the case due to a tough schedule and injuries. The reserves a rather unproven so Esbjerg are likely to face a tough match. SønderjyskE lack a quality striker, but are likely to be able to contain a weakened Esbjerg side. Under 2.5 goals are also in the cards here.

Recommendation: 2 (+0.5 AH) – 1.95 at Bet365

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.99 at Betsafe

UPDATE: Left back Knudsen will probably start although he won't be able to play more than 60 minutes. The same is the case with the predicted left wing Rasmussen and maybe also striker Pusic. Fellah will start on bench. Esbjerg risk running out of energy at the end. SønderjyskE are expected to start with new striker Golubovic on top.

For important match information and expected line-ups, you can visit (need access):
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=34656&a=33624

Brøndby-Silkeborg

Monday 28/7 19.00

Brøndby (12th) lost to a very strong FC Midtjylland last weekend. It was a disappointment for Brøndby that have looked strong in pre-season friendlies. Brøndby should be more dominant in this home match against Silkeborg. Brøndby lost winger Alexander Szymanowski to injury in last match. Brøndby have a good alternative in Ferhan Hasani and they have also just bought winger Elba Rashani from Odd Grenland. Striker Johan Elmander is expected to return after missing last match due to personal reasons. Brøndby has one of the league’s most dangerous offenses, but the defence is not very impressive. Silkeborg (7th) impressed in the first match against FC Copenhagen (0-0) and had the referee acted differently in a few vital situations they would probably have won. Silkeborg showed what they are good at: working hard and like a team. They will still be without right wingback Frans Putros and central midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen.

Brøndby look stronger, but Silkeborg have a solid and experienced team that could be difficult to break down. It is the first home game of the season and Brøndby are likely to get a boost from playing at home. If they score the first goal against Silkeborg, the match will open up and Brøndby are likely to win by more than one. But Silkeborg should not be underestimated, why this looks more like a no bet match.

Idea: 1 (0-1) – 3.15 at Unibet

UPDATE: Elmander will not return. Rashani has been called up

Go to http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=34657&a=33624 to get latest information on team news and expected line-ups (we provide the data). It's free!

Week 1 round-up (14/15)

The new season got off to an exciting start. As always, the first round is difficult since the true level of the teams is not easy to predict. Nevertheless, we hit 4 out of 7 bets, netting a ROI of +9%. Unfortunately, it was mainly our strongest bets that failed. Our Tip of the Week was a bit off. Midtjylland was simply better than Brøndby. The other failed recommendation (OB not winning against Hobro) ended up being a poor bet, since very important transfer news had an negative impact on our bet after its publication. Hopefully, such events won't affect our future bets. Stay tuned for more bets from Round 2.

FC Nordsjælland-FC Vestsjælland

Friday 18/7 18.30

FC Nordsjælland have looked rather unambitious during the transfer window. They have not signed a single player for the new season, which leave them vulnerable after the exit of some key players. The two most important exits are the central midfielder (captain and club legend) Nicolai Stokholm and the energetic right back Jens Stryger (left for Austria Vienna). They have also lost their coach, the talented Kasper Hjulmand, who signed for Mainz. New coach is the Icelandic Olafur Kristjansson, who have done well as coach in the Icelandic league. Kristjansson is expected to continue the typical style of play in Nordsjælland (preferring ball possession). FC Nordsjælland look to benefit from the return of full fitness for winger Uffe Bech, who could get his breakthrough season. On top, Kristjansson looks to give the young Kristian Lindberg the chance (in front of veterans Nordstrand and Aabech). Lindberg has been doing well in the friendlies, but he has still yet to impress in official matches. In total FC Nordsjælland are a decent team, but they do lack some squad depth. FC Vestsjælland are entering the second season in the best Danish football league. They will do that without the coach who got them promoted and avoided the relegation in the first season. Veteran coach Ove Pedersen disagreed with the board and decided to leave the job. New coach is the young Michael Hansen, who was the assistant under Pedersen. In opposition to Pedersen, Hansen is known for a more offensive minded approach to football. Therefore we should expect to see a FC Vestsjælland team trying to do other things than just demolish the opponent’s play and solely attack on set pieces (scored 19 out of 31 goals last season on set pieces). Coach Hansen will still use the 3-5-2 formation, but focus more on being goal seeking when having the ball. The question is whether they have the skills for this change of approach. FC Vestsjælland have signed some experienced players in winger Anders Due (former AaB) and defender Anders Østli (former Lillestrøm). The have lost some important players too though: central midfielder Morten Bertolt and central defender Lasse Nielsen, players who played a pivotal part in the survival last season. In total, FC Vestsjælland look to be at the same level as last year and they will probably have to fight for survival until the end of the season. Key left wingback Michael Lumb is absent with an injury.

In the three H2H’s last season FC Nordsjælland were unable to beat the physical FC Vestsjælland team (two losses and one draw). This could easily be the problem once again. However, the return of Uffe Bech on the right wing could easily be a problem for FC Vestsjælland without Michael Lumb. If FC Vestsjælland contain Bech, FC Nordsjælland could have a hard time scoring. With FC Nordsjælland mainly limited to dangers created by Uffe Bech and FC Vestsjælland mainly being able to attack on set pieces, we pick the Under 2.5 goal bet as the best solution for the match.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.90 at Bet365

SønderjyskE-AaB

Saturday 19/7 17.00

SønderjyskE made a brilliant comeback last season after being well underneath the relegation line at the winter break. A lot of the success of SønderjyskE in the spring can be credited to the offensive duo of Rubin Okotie (11 goals in 15 matches) and Tommy Bechmann. SønderjyskE have been unable to keep Okotie who has signed with 1860 Münich, while Tommy Bechmann will be absent for the first games due to an injury. SønderjyskE have just signed Bosnian attacker Bojan Golubovic, a 30-year old attacker who have scored a lot of goals in the Romanian league. It will be interesting to see if he can do so in the Danish league, but in any case he will probably need some time to adapt. Therefore SønderjyskE look very limited offensively, where midfielders Nikolaj Madsen and Silas Songani have been given a chance in the front line in recent friendlies. Defensively, SønderjyskE have lost Daniel Christensen, but replaced him with Erik Marxen, which looks like a decent swap. In total, SønderjyskE look solid at the back, but not very dangerous offensively. AaB took the double last season. The club has limited financial strength why an exodus was feared. However, of the important players, only winger Kasper Kusk and striker Rasmus Jönsson have left. To cover for Kusk, AaB have signed winger Thomas Enevoldsen. To cover for Jönsson, AaB have signed striker Nicklas Helenius who was the team’s top goalscorer (with 16 goals) two years ago. Both players are strong players, but they do lack match fitness. AaB are struggling with a few injuries. Right back Henrik Dalsgaard is still injured, while strong midfielder Nikolaj Thomsen is new to the injury list. Captain and central midfielder Rasmus Würtz is doubtful for the match. With AaB without Kusk and Thomsen, AaB look short of creativity for the first match.

A match between two teams whom look weaker than before the break. With the current squad situation, both are strongest at the back, why a match with few goals could be the end result. AaB should be favourites, but with the uncertainties surrounding the current level of the new signings, we skip betting on 1X2.

UPDATE: Würtz is confirmed out, the same with SønderjyskE's central midfielder Daniel Jensen. A problem for both teams - guess it evens out.

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 2.08 at Betfair

OB-Hobro

Sunday 20/7 14.00

OB got an 8th place last season, but it was another disappointing season. The club from Denmark’s third biggest city has higher ambitions, but the quality of the squad is simply too low. OB have three very strong offensive players: Rasmus Falk, Baskhim Kadrii and Emil Larsen. And for once, they are all fit! The rest of the squad is not something special though. OB have lost veterans Morten Skoubo (striker), Mustafa Abdellaoue (striker), Anders Møller Christensen (central defender) and Espen Ruud (right back). Lasse Nielsen has been signed in FC Vestsjælland to cover in the central defence while Lasse Kryger has been signed in Horsens to cover the right back. They are decent signings, but nothing extraordinary. No extra players have been bought to cover the striker position. Therefore OB will probably be forced to line-up with the miserable Darko Bodul as striker (3 goals in 21 matches last season) alongside Kadrii. Hobro have been deemed the most likely team to go down in the history of the Superliga. Coming from a small town of only 12.000 inhabitants, the club has very limited resources, but will try to stay in the league through fight and hard work. They have signed some of the better players of the second best Danish football league, hoping that they will succeed at the highest level (for instance striker Emil Berggreen and winger Martin Mikkelsen). But bottom-line is that Hobro played a poor spring season after losing star player Kasper Fisker to Randers. They barely got promoted, and the pre-season friendly matches have been frightening with Hobro losing all four matches. Hobro is likely to get their best chances on set pieces with the tall defenders Justesen and Egholm.

Although we dread OB might face another tough season, we believe that they should be capable of beating Hobro. The likes of Falk and Larsen will pose tremendous problems on the flanks, while we expect Kadrii to have good chances of scoring in this match. Hobro will try to defend their way through the match, but on a sunny day in Odense, we believe it will be a difficult mission. The odds on OB have increased and are now at an interesting level.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -1) – 2.05 at Bet365 (no longer value)

UPDATE: Kadrii has just signed with FC Copenhagen. No longer value in OB! 

UPDATE v2: Quincy Antipas, speedy winger/attacker from Brøndby, has just signed with Hobro! Quality signing and surprising that a bigger club like OB did not pick him up. Is in the squad for the match and is an eternal threat although he has poor finishing. Value currently in Hobro!

Silkeborg-FC København

Sunday 20/7 17.00

Silkeborg are the other promoted club this season (together with Hobro). Opposite to Hobro, Silkeborg are a team with many experienced players (for instance Dennis Flinta, Jesper Mikkelsen and Frank Hansen). We expect that Silkeborg have a good chance of surviving in the Superliga. The addition of Nikolaj Agger (offensive midfielder/striker) from Vejle was a very good signing and Silkeborg looks like a complete team without any obvious weaknesses. They do lack a star player though and they will need a strong team effort to earn results. For the first match Silkeborg will be without regulars Daniel A. Pedersen and Simon Jakobsen. The pre-season friendlies offered mixed results. They started with an abysmal 0-5 defeat to Viborg, but have since rebounded with a win against Hobro and a draw against OB. FC Copenhagen have made a truckload of squad changes after a poor season last year. Six players who played a considerable part of last season’s second place have left (Braaten, Jacobsen, Kristensen, Bolaños, Vetokele and Margreitter). FC Copenhagen have signed six strong players for the upcoming season. Goalkeeper Stephan Andersen (24 caps for Denmark) upgrades the goalkeeping position. The defence has experienced a large makeover, where only left back Pierre Bengtsson is expected to be a repetition from last season. New signings Tom Høgli, Mathias Zanka and Per Nilsson will cover the remaining positions. They are all quality players with several caps for their respective nations.  The central midfield has been upgraded with the signing of Argentine Franco Mussis (injured for the first match though) and Ghanaian Daniel Amartey. Belgian Steve de Ridder has been bought for the attack. FC Copenhagen still have the star winger Nicolaj Jørgensen who should be back to full fitness after an injury in spring. The pre-season friendlies have been rather unimpressive, which is not unnatural with so many new players in the starting line-ups. FC Copenhagen could face some problems in the first few matches, but from then on, they should have the quality to be favourites for the league title.

While Silkeborg have made almost no changes to their squad, FC Copenhagen will probably field six new players. FC Copenhagen are clearly the better team, but may face problems due to the players being less acquainted with each other. First matches are difficult to bet on, but if we had to, we would go with Silkeborg in this one.

Idea: 1 (AH +1) – 1.84 at Ladbrokes

FC Midtjylland-Brøndby

Sunday 20/7 19.00

FC Midtjylland have experienced some changes over the break. Key players from last season, goalkeeper Jonas Lössl and left back Jesper Juelsgaard have left. FC Midtjylland have signed Lasse Heinze as new goalkeeper (slight weakening) and Tim Sparv (Finnish international midfielder). To cover for Juelsgaard, Jesper Lauridsen returns from loan in Hobro. He should be a fine replacement although FC Midtjylland will miss Juelsgaard’s strong crossing abilities (8 assists last season). FC Midtjylland have looked strong in the pre-season matches (3 clear wins) despite having to deal with injuries for key players. Midfielders Marco Larsen and Eyjolfur Hedinsson, and defender Erik Sviatchenko are all absent for the first match. Midfielders Jakob Poulsen and Rilwan Hassan are doubtful for the match. FC Midtjylland have quite a squad depth, especially in the midfield, so they will still be able to compete. Brøndby have also looked very strong in the pre-season friendlies (winning most – including a 2-1 win against Liverpool). Brøndby had a good season last year in the first year under coach Thomas Frank and they could improve their 4th place this year. The addition of Swedish veteran striker Johan Elmander from Galatasaray is a strong signing, while Fredrik Berge from Odd Grenland will have to cover a spot in the central defence after the exit of Khalid Boulahrouz. Of the important players, only winger Andrew Hjulsager is absent, and Brøndby are actually struggling with positive problems due to all the good players being available for the line-up. Brøndby have the best goalkeeper in the league (Lukas Hradecky), a strong midfield and a dangerous attack. Only the defence does not appear to have title quality.

The two teams that have looked best in the pre-season friendlies will compete in a match that could give a clear signal of who will be FC Copenhagen’s main challenger for the league title. FC Midtjylland are struggling with some injuries, and although the alternatives are fine, we believe that it gives Brøndby the upper hand. In our opinion the bookies are generous by offering the highest price for away win.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0) – 2.08 at Bet365

Esbjerg-Randers

Monday 20/7 19.00

Esbjerg were one of the positive surprises last season with a 5th place and earning advancement from the Europa League group stage. The strong performance led to Esbjerg’s players attracting attention from abroad and in the end also to the exit of right back Peter Ankersen and central defender Kian Hansen. Both players had a very strong influence on Esbjerg’s performances over the previous seasons. Furthermore, attacker Mushaga Bakenga (6 goals last season) has left. The exits have not been covered in impressive manner. Eddi Gomes has been signed for the central defence from HB Køge (did not impress in last match) and Lasse Rise has been signed from Randers (but he is always injured). In total, it leaves Esbjerg significantly weaker than last season. Against FC Kairat Almaty in an away Europa League match this Thursday Esbjerg got 1-1, but they were hardly able to create a big chance during 90 minutes. Esbjerg were without their star striker Martin Pusic, and if he is absent for Monday as well Esbjerg face severe scoring problems. Captain Hans-Henrik Andreasen and strong left back Jonas Knudsen are also doubtful for the match. Esbjerg lack a quality cover for Jonas Knudsen. Randers have lost their main profile, striker Ronnie Schwartz (15 goals last season). With preferred second striker, Nikolaj Brock-Madsen injured, Randers only have two options for the striking line-up: Viktor Lundberg and Djiby Fall. Both had a poor last season, but Lundberg has looked good in the pre-season friendlies. While Randers face some issues offensively, they look better in the midfield and defence, where they have some solid and experienced players. Winger Borring is injured, but with Fisker and Kamper fit it is not a major issue. In fact the wings might be the preferred spot of attack with the possible absence of Esbjerg left back Knudsen. In defence left back Tamboura is doubtful, but cover Fischer has done okay in his appearances. Randers have also signed a new goalkeeper in the Swede Karl-Johan Johnsson, and it will be interesting to see if he is an improvement to the average Peter Friis Jensen.

Esbjerg have lost some vital players and they lack the squad depth to cover these absences. With the potential absences of striker Pusic and left back Knudsen, Esbjerg look very vulnerable. Despite Randers are without a quality striker, they will have a good chance of earning points in Esbjerg. The experienced and physically strong team will be hard to break down for an Esbjerg team that played Europa League in Kazakhstan on Thursday (and had plane flight of more than 12 hours!).

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0.5) - 1.85 at Bet365

Idea: Under 2.5 goals – 1.86 at Betfair

UPDATE: Esbjerg's Pusic and Knudsen in called squad, but their participation is still not certain. Captain Hans-Henrik Andreasen not in called squad. In our opinion, still value in Randers points.

UPDATE v2: According to local newspaper, JV, Esbjerg is expected to rest several key players: Fellah, Pusic and Knudsen. Expected front-line is Lyng and Vestergaard, which should not scare an experienced Randers defence. Esbjerg will have a hard time scoring. Only winger Ankersen a real threat.