Viborg-AaB

Wednesday 16/4 20.00

Viborg (11th) are feeling the pressure after just earning six points in eight spring matches. While Viborg took some lucky points in autumn the same has not been the case in spring and this had led to Viborg taking a league position as expected. Based on their ability to dominate matches they are the worst in the league, recording a SoTR of only 38%. The team looks better in 2014 though, especially with the addition of Brazilian Wilton Figueiredo who also scored his first Superliga goal last weekend (3-1 loss at Randers). So while the offence is improved the defence is not exactly looking solid. Especially in matches at home against the strong teams (top 6) Viborg have a hard time: 9 shots on target is allowed on average in these games (vs. 4.5 shots against bottom 6 teams). Viborg will benefit from the return of regular central midfielder Nicholas Gotfredsen. AaB (1st) are heading for the league title after yet another impressive win (2-0 vs. Brøndby). AaB have now won three matches in a row, and remarkably it is against all the other top 4 teams. AaB have been splendid offensively, and in our opinion it is their brilliant midfield that is the main force. Players like Kusk and Thomsen are creative and possess a tremendous work rate, while central midfielder Risgård and Würtz are crafty veterans that rarely make mistakes. Another reason for AaB’s splendid position is their insane shooting accuracy. They score on 37% of their attempts on target (league average 27%). This accuracy will be difficult to keep up since AaB is possibly without their two normal strikers. The creative Swede Rasmus Jönsson is surely out, while Lithuanian sensation Lukas Spalvis (6 goals in spring alone) is suffering from back problems, but is expected to play. Alternatives Curth, Jacobsen and Frederiksen are decent, but they are not exactly red-hot form. Würtz will return from suspension, while right back Henrik Dalsgaard is still injured. Last time they met AaB smashed Viborg 5-0 without Viborg getting a shot on target.

Momentum and quality is both in favor of AaB. Furthermore, they seem like having the upper hand against Viborg (winning 8-1 in the two H2H matches of the season). Despite the possible missings of AaB, they still possess a midfield that should dominate Viborg completely. Viborg will attempt counters and could score against a AaB defence that is by no means the league’s most secure. If AaB had both their strikers fit we would have taken the over 2.5 goals (AaB have been over in all 12 away matches!), but at 1.74 the odds is just short of acceptable. So we stick with AaB to win.

Idea: 2 (AH -0.5) – 1.85 at Bet365