SønderjyskE-FC Vestsjælland

Friday 11/4 18.30

SønderjyskE (12th) suffered the expected loss last weekend against FC Copenhagen (2-0). SønderjyskE delivered a reasonable effort, but the final winner was never in doubt. While last match was a match where a point would have been a bonus, the stakes are different for this match: points are a must. SønderjyskE simply need a win against a strong rival for the relegation spots. Offensively SønderjyskE have looked stronger in 2014 with Okotie and Bechmann, while goalkeeper Marin Skender has managed to register a very high saving rate. But SønderjyskE are still not a strong team. In fact, based on their SoTR, they have actually been the 2nd worst in 2014 in creating/avoiding chances. To make matters worse, SønderjyskE will be without strong central defender Pierre Kanstrup and possibly also the injured midfielders, Daniel Jensen and Johan Absalonsen. Particularly Absalonsen is important for SønderjyskE’s trademark, the counter-attacking. FC Vestsjælland (10th) have had offensive problems in 2014. In seven games they have only scored three goals. They are without three strikers, Ofere, Tshibamba and Thiago, and current choice Dennis Sørensen is currently not in killer-mode. Despite the offensive struggles, FC Vestsjælland have been skilled at closing down the opponents’ offences. In the last two matches they have managed to completely shut down the offences of Esbjerg and FC Nordsjælland (two times 0-0). The question is which approach FC Vestsjælland will have for this match? They have actually had problems against the league’s weaker team, mainly because they are vulnerable at the back when they try to create matches themselves. But FC Vestsjælland will probably be satisfied with a draw here, since they have a four-point edge on SønderjyskE. It is worth noticing that FC Vestsjælland have only lost three out of thirteen away matches, which underlines their quality in “parking the bus”.

A lot is at stake here. We have SønderjyskE as the favourite, but FC Vestsjælland are a difficult team to beat, especially if they decide on the defending the draw. By combining the draw and away win, Mermaidbet offers 1.85 for X2. That is a very valuable offer and our only interpretation is that the bookies rate the 4-0 win of SønderjyskE in the last H2H too high (a match where the scoreline was unfair – FCV mostly dominated and had 8 shots on target vs. SønderjyskE’s 5).

Tip of the week: X2 – 1.85 at Mermaidbet (51.35% on draw at 3.60 and 48.65% on 2 at 3.80)