AGF-FC Midtjylland

Friday 18/4 19.00

AGF (10th) are a tough team to support at the moment. Things are not working on the pitch, but the players are fighting for every point they can get. Unfortunately they have lost the last three matches 1-0 conceding goals in minutes 84, 88 and 68. Mentally it must be tough for the AGF players. Now they are back at home where the players seem particularly nervous and as a result they have lost three times in a row here and not won since the start of November. AGF have three key problems:

·            Lack of a quality striker

o   Since Søren Larsen left AGF in the winter break the strikers have only scored twice (in eight matches)

·            Midfield not able to keep possesion

o   AGF have in many matches struggled to keep possession with the result that they are mostly chasing the ball leaving them tired at the end

·            Goalkeeper is poor

o   Ousager is the stand-in goalkeeper for the injured Steffen Rasmussen and he is not Superliga material. Holds the league’s lowest saving percentage in 2014 at 67%

AGF will be without the veteran midfielder Martin Jørgensen. He will probably be replaced by Hjalte Nørregaard. Nørregaard is usually Mr. Invisible so not the best  swap. FC Midtjylland (2nd) have lost four out of the last five matches. It seems like the pressure is getting to them and they risk losing the medals. A huge dissapointment for a club that has its best chances of winning gold ever. It is not over yet, but FC Midtjylland better start winning matches. It is difficult with all the vital injuries they have suffered though (defender Sviatchenko, midfielder Izunna and striker Duncan). For this match winger Igboun and right defender Bak Nielsen (captain) returns from suspension. Important additions! Striker Morten Duncan Rasmussen might return for this match. His return could be vital, since FC Midtjylland looked very toothless without him last weekend. FC Midtjylland have won the last three H2H’s and seems like a poor match-up for AGF.

AGF have managed to get a total of five shots on target in the last four matches (not scoring either) and confidence is low. FC Midtjylland will get a boost by the return of Igboun and Bak Nielsen and we should expect them to dominate the match. We predict a slim away win. The line for goals appears wrongly set.

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 1.95 at Bet365

Idea: 2 – 2.12 at Betfair