AaB-Esbjerg

Saturday 03/05 17.00

AaB (1st) have a great chance of becoming Danish champions. One of the biggest obstacles left is this match. AaB have not been overly convincing in the last two matches, where the opponents have been able to score twice in each match against a vulnerable AaB backline. The backline will be in further problems with strong left back Jakob Ahlmann suspended, while central defender Rasmus Thelander is an unlikely participant. Good news is the likely return of creative striker Rasmus Jönsson. He adds extra flavour to a strong AaB attack. AaB have been insanely efficient in 2014, scoring on 37% of their shots on target (league average 25%). Esbjerg (5th) have drawed three times in a row. The draw against FC Midtjylland in last round (0-0) was quite impressive since Esbjerg managed to dominate the game despite being without key midfielder Magnus Lekven (sick) and Jakob Ankersen (suspended). Both should return on Saturday and with offensive players like Fellah and Pusic nearing their top level, Esbjerg can present a powerful line-up.

Two teams with a lot to offer offensively. Despite of this the match might be tactical with Esbjerg lurking on counter-attacks. We would not touch over/under. But a bet on at least one point for the away team seems inviting. Especially when having in mind that AaB are without left back Ahlmann (and without a natural replacement) against an Esbjerg side that have the strongest right hand side in the league with the Ankersen twins.

Recommendation: X2 – 2.05 at Mermaidbet/Tipico (combine 4.60 for away win at Tipico (44.5%) and 3.70 for draw at Mermaidbet (55.5%)).

Otherwise 2.00 at Bet365 is decent.

UPDATE: AaB will be without important midfielder Kasper Risgård. He has been an integral part of AaB's midfield that has been the best in the league.