FC Midtjylland-AaB

Saturday 5/4 17.00

FC Midtjylland (1st) broke the negative spiral with a 3-0 win in Randers. They even did it without their team top goalscorer Morten Duncan Rasmussen. The victory was probably a goal or two too big, but FC Midtjylland showed some solidity by not giving away easy chances and at the same time being efficient offensively. For the upcoming title decisive match, striker Rasmussen is still doubtful. Alternative Tim Janssen did decent as a stand-in (scoring one goal) but is not of the same level. FC Midtjylland are based on our stats the best team in the league currently with a spring SoTR of 67%! Key midfielder Izunna and defender Sviatchenko are still absent, but the replacements did well in the last match. AaB (2nd) have been outstanding lately, but they have also had a tight schedule that appears to have given some fitness difficulties. Offensively key players like striker Rasmus Jönsson and midfielder Kasper Kusk are having minor injuries. They should be ready for the match but probably not at 100%. Defensively the situation is critical. Right back Dalsgaard is injured, while left back Ahlmann is suspended and central defender Thelander has a broken nose (will probably play). AaB only have one cover for the backs and that is normal midfielder Patrick Kristensen. For the other position they will have to try out either an unproven youngster Blåbjerg, a slow midfielder Due or a speedy striker Frederiksen. No matter what it seems like a huge mismatch against FC Midtjylland’s strong wingers Igboun and Sisto (or Hassan) who are particularly good in the man against man part. AaB shall fear that an “autobahn” will open up for Midtjylland on the sides. AaB have earned a lot of positive critique from the media, but there success seems to be based on a high degree of efficiency. As a matter of fact, AaB’s opponents have had more shots on target than AaB in spring (32 vs. 27) and it is only a tremendous scoring percentage at 44% (league average in spring: 24%) that have kept them on top. Since this is a potential championship decider, full house should be expected in Midtjylland, and therefore lots of tension.

There is still a lot of potential team news concerning the injury statuses of several players that could change the outcome probabilities. But based on the current information value seems to be in the home win. AaB perform a nice passing game with several young talents and might be a bit overrated as a consequence (plus they are not very good away: 4-2-5).

Recommendation: 1 – 2.35 at Unibet

UPDATE: Morten Duncan Rasmussen has been called up for FC Midtjylland while AaB have called up Thelander, Kusk and Jönsson. Two strong teams will meet! We still prefer Midtjylland due to the difficulites of AaB at their back positions.