AGF-Randers

Friday 4/4 18.30

AGF (8th) in the 2014 version are poor. Based on our stats they are the weakest team in the ability to create chances (TSR lowest in the league at 35%). This is hardly a surprise since AGF lack a quality striker and the midfield is at the same time not producing according to expectations. Normal key players like Casper Sloth and Osama Akharraz have been lousy in spring and have spent several uncommon minutes on the bench. Had it not been for the new signing Danny Olsen AGF could have been under relegation line already. Olsen’s four goals (out of eight spring goals), fight, and vision have been extraordinary. But AGF have not scored in the last two matches (only had 3 shots on target), and it seems like coach Fredberg is struggling to find a team that can perform. In the last match he tried fielding five central midfielders (yes, three out of position) with a plan that seemed like: let’s put our best players on the pitch and see what happens. It did not work, AGF were fine defensively, but they rarely crossed the midfield line (1-0 to FC Nordsjælland). Now AGF are back at home and they are actually poorer here. If you include a cup match they have lost the last three home games with a total of 3-12. The fans have lost confidence and this really affects AGF when playing at home. AGF will be without regular midfielder Hjalte Nørregaard. Randers (10th) lost 0-3 at home to FC Midtjylland, and they are still without a win in 2014 (as the only team). Randers did okay against an efficient FC Midtjylland, but it is clear that the lack of success is starting to affect them. Randers have been good at creating chances though (TSR in spring at 61% (2nd best)), but they have been very unlucky (PDO (luck indicator) league lowest in spring). Randers are not in the best condition, but compared to the last match, defender Mads Agesen and striker Ronnie Schwartz, should return to the line-up. The return of two strong players, midfielder Elmar Bjarnason and right back Johnny Thomsen, is more doubtful. Randers have been good in away matches, but unable to get full dividend (three draws in spring). The last time the two teams met it ended surprisingly with 3-1 away win to AGF. AGF were efficient but also managed to overcome an early red card.

Based on what AGF have delivered in the recent matches, especially at home, we have very limited belief in them. A draw would seem obvious if you note that Randers have achieved that result in seven out of eleven away matches. Nevertheless we believe that Randers could take advantage of AGF’s poor home form. Naturally we insure against the draw.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +0) – 2.00 at Bet365