AaB-Brøndby

Sunday 13/4 19.00

AaB (1st) are the new guys to beat after they took an impressive win against FC Midtjylland (3-2). AaB are really excelling in the offensive part of the game, where players like Thomsen, Kusk, Jönsson and even the Lithuanian surprise Spalvis (scored twice last weekend) have been a joy to behold. AaB have a brilliant passing game mainly orchestrated by the wingers while the two central midfielders Würtz and Risgård keep the structure. Würtz is suspended for this match and veteran Augustinussen will probably cover. It is a loss since Würtz’s performances has been flawless in 2014, so the absence might force AaB to use more energy on the defensive assignments. Compared to last weekend, AaB will have left back Ahlmann back from suspension. Right back Dalsgaard is still injured, but alternative Patrick Kristensen seems to be improving. Brøndby (4th) took a massive win against Esbjerg (1-0). Massive in the sense that Brøndby will now compete for medals and at the same time eliminated one of the main rivals in that competition. Brøndby were not outstanding though. They had a lot of good counters, but they were practically outplayed in several periods of the game. Fortunately goalkeeper Hradecky had another splendid day and even saved a penalty. Hradecky leads the league in total and 2014 with saving percentages of 79% and 88% respectively. He is undoubtedly the best keeper in the league although the extreme percentage for 2014 will be difficult to maintain. Brøndby might welcome back strong central defender, Khalid Boulahrouz, and his return could be important since alternative Dario Dumic is nothing more than average.

There is a big difference between AaB when playing home and away. Home they are still unbeaten, but also play some tight matches mainly because the opponents are very cautious (AaB home: 8 out of 13 under 2.5 goals – away all 12 over 2.5 goals!). Cautious is Brøndby’s usual attitude in away matches. Their risk minimizing style combined with the strong performances of Hradecky also result in a lot of low scorelines (9 out of 13 under 2.5 goals – 8 in a row!). We believe the bookies are blinded by AaB’s magnificent offensive performances in 2014 with 15 goals in 7 matches (that are actually driven by an insane and unsustainable scoring efficiency of 44% - twice the league average in 2014).

Recommendation: Under 2.5 goals – 2.00 at Bet365