Hobro-Esbjerg

Saturday 20/9 17.00

Hobro (2nd) must be listening to Queen’s “Don’t Stop Me Now” on repeat at the moment. They are really having a good time! But at some point this must come to an end. They have been lucky in several games where only Hobro’s own efficiency and the opponents lack of the same have given them points. This was very visible in the last match against SønderjyskE, who were pushing and had a goal disallowed for 2-0 – instead Hobro equalised out of the blue to the end result 1-1. If you look at the stats, then it tells a story about a very lucky team. Hobro are number one in terms of scoring (scores on 39% of their shots on target – league average is 26%). They are number one in terms of defensive efficiency too (saves 86% of shots on target – league average is 74%). This leads us to conclude that Hobro are by far the luckiest team in the league. Their performance is unsustainable high and based on their ability to produce chances, we rank them between position 8 and 12 (TSR: 12 and SOTR: 8). For more info on the meaning of these measures, click here. Hobro have some quality players though, and that is probably the main reason for the success. Had it not been for the quality actions of Quincy Antipas (including his many assists) and the goalscoring form of Mads Hvilsom, Hobro would have been at the bottom. Defensively they have looked solid, but they have problems when the opponent moves the ball fast. Central defender Anders Egholm is doubtful for this match. Esbjerg (10th) finally got a win (3-0 against FC Vestsjælland). That had been long overdue, and was starting to affect Esbjerg mentally. The truth is that they are a very strong team, and before the start of the season it would not have been a huge surprise if they ended up with a medal. The season just got off to a poor start with Esbjerg being inefficient and generally very unlucky (dropping wins in final minutes (also in Europa League)). Against FC Vestsjælland Esbjerg started with low confidence, but once they took the lead they looked revived. Newcomer Robin Söder scored twice and Martin Pusic scored once, so the attack must be very confident ahead of this match. Defensively, the strong Eddi Gomes returns from suspension. Esbjerg’s main weakness is the set pieces, where Hobro could have an advantage. The question is how many opportunities (corners and free kicks) they will get. Esbjerg have no important injuries.

We believe that the win was just what Esbjerg needed to spark their run away from the relegation zone. At the same time, we doubt Hobro can continue their lucky streak against Esbjerg. Esbjerg should have defenders who are able to minimize the amount of danger stemming from Antipas and Hvilsom. If so, Hobro should be humane. We dare to give more than 50% chance for an away win here. A match with some goals is not unlikely if Esbjerg takes the lead.

Tip of the Week: 2 – 2.02 at Betfair

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.02 at Betfair

UPDATE: Egholm is out for Hobro. Not optimal for the stability of their central defense. At the same time Esbjerg head coach Frederiksen has decided to field same team as last weekend, which means that strong central defender Gomes will start on the bench. These updates adds a bit more value to the away win (and more to over 2.5 goals!).