Brøndby-AaB

Sunday 5/10 19.00

Brøndby (7th) showed promising glimpses in the 2-2 match in Esbjerg last weekend. Brøndby have not been living up to pre-season expectations, and a number of last minute signings clearly needed some time to get into the team. One of them, striker Teemu Pukki, played his first really good match and caused a lot of trouble for the Esbjerg backline. If he maintains that level he will be a great signing. Brøndby have a number of quality players, and they should improve their position in the standings. Based on our statistics on chance domination Brøndby are one of the strongest home teams (placed third). No reported injuries or suspensions. AaB (6th) are like Brøndby stuck in a position that is not aligned with expectations. AaB have been far from the level from last season, and especially the creative contribution of Kasker Kusk (now Twente) is missed. In fact, AaB are shockingly poor in terms of creating chances. Based on our stats they are together with Hobro and OB the among the poorest teams in the league. AaB have been very poor in the away matches (where they have only faced “easy” opponents: FC Vestsjælland, Silkeborg, OB and SønderjyskE): 3 draws and 1 loss. Worse is that their chance creation in these away matches have been abysmal: AaB had 12 shots on target and allowed 29 shots on target in the four matches. It is not only the absence of Kusk that causes problem. The strikers are not very sharp at the moment (one (penalty) goal in the last three matches). Furthermore, the situation is even worse with the suspension for the captain, central midfielder Rasmus Würtz. Without him AaB lack their leader, a very important player for the stability of the team. On the plus side left back Donny Gorter and right winger Frederik Børsting return from injury (both are nothing more than rotation players though). Worth noting that AaB play a Europa League match against Rio Ave on Thursday.

Brøndby showed some promising things in a difficult away match against Esbjerg last weekend, and at home with great support on a Sunday night they should dominate a depressed AaB team. AaB have been poor all season long, and with Würtz out we see no logic in it changing here.

Recommendation: 1 – 2.25 at Tipico