Esbjerg-FC Midtjylland preview

Sunday 5/4 19.00

Esbjerg (9th) got a sudden awakening after three losses in a row with a nice 2-0 win in Odense. Esbjerg finally succeeded with their energetic style, which did not work against big teams like FC Midtjylland, FC København and AaB. Now the face FC Midtjylland again, and it will be interesting to see if they dare to use the high-pressure style again. Esbjerg will do without some important players; left back Jonas Knudsen and right midfielder Jeppe Andersen are both injured. Especially the former will be difficult to replace since Esbjerg have no other left back in the squad. This should spark some defensive changes that leave Esbjerg’s defence not so compelling. Offensively, Esbjerg could benefit from the return of the strong Lasse Rise and the increase in form of new signing Daniel Larsson. FC Midtjylland (1st) are cruising towards the league title. They are not creating many chances though; in fact they were much better in chance creation in autumn. A reason could be the continued absence of strong winger Pione Sisto. However, FC Midtjylland are saved by their remarkable strength on set pieces. 10 out 12 goals scored in 2015 have come from set pieces! One of the strongest players on set pieces is out here. Right back (and captain) Kristian Bak Bach is banned, and less physical André Rømer is set to take over. Offensively, the striker Morten Duncan is doubtful, but with the league top goalscorer, Martin Pusic, as alternative it should not be a huge problem.

Esbjerg typically struggle against FC Midtjylland, and it is not random that they have not won against them in a league match in five years. It is a poor match-up for them. This could also be the case here, where Esbjerg look particularly vulnerable on set pieces and against the speedy wingers of FC Midtjylland. Esbjerg do have some interesting offensive players, and it is not without a reason that these are the two most scoring teams in the league. An over bet could be worth a shot.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.30 at Tipico

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 2.20 at Ladbrokes

UPDATE: Rise is out for Esbjerg, so they are set to use the two Swedes Larsson and Söder. They will get a long day against a Midtjylland defense that looks superior. Duncan is confirmed out for Midtjylland, so Pusic is set for a start against his former teammates.