AaB-Silkeborg

Monday 3/11 19.00

AaB (7th) are playing some poor football at the moment. They are playing matches all the time (league, cup and Europa League), but only rarely perform up to the level from last season. The defence has been okay, but offensively it has really been poor. They are by far the team in the league with the fewest shots on target (37 versus league average of 55). It is a concerning stat for a defending champion. At the same time the strikers lack confidence (Helenius and Jacobsen). AaB’s poor season is likely to be due to fatigue (mentally and physically) and the lack of a quality creative midfielder (no one to replace Kasper Kusk (now Twente)). Silkeborg (12th) simply cannot win in the league. We have seen them dominate many matches, but failed to get points. Recently they should have won against FC Vestsjælland, but the strikers are unbelievably poor in front of the goal. Silkeborg only score on 12% of their shots on target (league average 26% and FC Copenhagen are the second poorest with 23%). This is a crazy statistic. Silkeborg do not seem affected in the attitude. They fight hard for every point, and they will win at some point. Although the team lack individual stars to decide matches, they must have luck on their side at some point. Silkeborg have lost eight games this season and only one of them has been with a goal difference of more than one goal. The previous match between the two clubs this season ended 2-2.

AaB are really struggling to find their game (and was even forced to play 120 minutes on Thursday in the cup), and last seasons success seems far away. Silkeborg are also struggling, but mostly with getting correct payment for their effort. AaB have only won two home games this season, and it has not been the fortress of previous seasons. We expect Silkeborg to put up a good fight and we doubt they will lose with more than a goal here.

Recommendation: 2 (AH +1) – 1.81 at Ladbrokes

UPDATE: AaB will be without captain Rasmus Würtz (injured) and defender Rasmus Thelander (rested). Both very important players for AaB. AaB have a tight schedule with Europa League on Thursday and might rest even more players. Silkeborg will benefit from the return of central defender Dennis Flinta from suspension. Looks good for our bet. AaB are usually not impressive when Würtz is absent.

UPDATE v2: According to local newspaper, Nordjyske, AaB will plan on starting with regulars Henrik Dalsgaard, Kasper Risgård and Nicklas Helenius on the bench (they need a rest apparently)! In total it is a closer to a semi "B"-team (than the "A"-team) that AaB will field tonight! You can see the expected line-ups at Leaguespy:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=40158&a=33624