AaB-Hobro

Friday 17/10 18.30

AaB (7th) are unlikely to retain their championship title. The sale of midfielder Kasper Kusk combined with many injuries seems to be more than the squad can handle. AaB have lacked continuity and have been forced to play without several first choice players. For this match AaB should benefit from the return of captain Rasmus Würtz from suspension and left back Patrick Kristensen from injury. This means that AaB can field a pretty strong starting eleven. AaB do lack some offensive punch though, highlighted by the scaring fact that they have had the fewest shots on target in the league in this season (34 in ten matches – league average is 47). The strikers are strong finishers (also holds an above average scoring efficiency), so it is a matter of them being served with chances by the AaB midfielders. The most creative AaB midfielder Nicolaj Thomsen appears to be improving after having suffered from a dip in form due to injury. AaB are still without the long-term injured Lukas Spalvis, Rasmus Jönsson and Jakob Ahlmann. Hobro (4th) took a beating in last round (1-5 to FC Midtjylland). The quality difference was evident. Hobro’s semi-professional players could not keep up with the league leaders. Hobro suffered under the absence of midfield spoiler Jonas Damborg who was suspended. He will return here and bolster Hobro’s defence. Is this the end of the run for Hobro? They have undoubtedly over-performed until now, but that does not mean that they will suddenly turn into an easy opponent. They still benefit from an entirely fit squad and the offensive qualities of speedy Quincy Antipas and the resolute Mads Hvilsom. It is a local derby and the stadium could be full.

It is a difficult match for betting. Will AaB finally get the offense going? Are Hobro without confidence after the big loss last round? We expect AaB to win this match. Their squad should have more quality. Additionally they will have very strong home support for this match and benefit from the return of the captain. The price for a home win is not spectacular though.

Idea: 1 – 1.71 at Betfair

UPDATE: Kristensen is not fit, so Gorter will cover left back. A small minus for AaB. Furthermore, strong winger Nicolaj Thomsen is reportedly exhausted after two U21 international games. He is likely to be replaced by young Andreas Bruhn who has not impressed yet. With odds currently dropping on AaB, the value is starting to move towards Hobro.

Get the free Leaguespy preview for the match here:
http://leaguespy.com/preview.php?id=39079&a=33624