Week 9 Superliga previews

Esbjerg-Randers

Friday 16/9 18.00

Esbjerg were experiencing an upward trend in form, but that ended cruelly in Herning on Friday as they lost 3-0 and could have lost even bigger. Esbjerg often have a hard time at FC Midtjylland, but even so, you had expected more from them given their recent run. I still think they have some offensive potential with Mensah and Andersen, but there is still a long way to go defensively, although Nordvik is proving to be a fine central defender. Esbjerg have really been poor at protecting own goal, but they will find some confidence in their recent home performances, that have been uplifting. Randers have had an excellent start to the season. They have played pretty well, although the table is too kind to them. They have been quite lucky defensively as they have not conceded as many goals as you would expect given the chances allowed. They have the second lowest conceded goals, but they surely don’t have the second best defence. It will be even weaker for this match as Randers will miss suspended central defender and captain Fenger, while the same also could happen with his fellow centre back Agesen who is under review for kicking an opponent in the last match. I expect Agesen to get a ban too, leaving Randers without their two regular starters, and with only one obvious alternative in Bager, it is of course problematic. Randers look fairly interesting offensively, where they have a lot of interesting weapons and main striker Ishak finally seems to be finding some form.

I agree with the current price setting in the market. Randers have showed way more than Esbjerg during the season, so they deserved their favorite role. However, if I were to bet here, I would go for the home win as I expect the likely absence of two central defenders (including the captain) could potentially hurt Randers a lot.

Idea: 1 (AH +0.25) – 1.87 at Pinnacle
Update: Agesen has received a ban, so Randers will have to line-up with a completely new central defence. 

Silkeborg-AGF

Saturday 17/9 16.00

Silkeborg got a deserved point in SønderjyskE in the weekend, so they must arrive here with new confidence after an abysmal start to the season. They are still without a win, and you could argue that they are the worst team in the league. Their fundamental stats are actually not as cruel; although my perception also is that Silkeborg are the weakest team. However, it is certain that Silkeborg have not been very lucky until now. They have the lowest scoring percentage and the lowest saving percentage in the league at the same time, which shows that Silkeborg are very unlucky but perhaps also a bit stripped of confidence in the decisive situations. They still suffer from some injuries, most notably for the preferred goalkeeper Nørgaard and winger Skov, but things are starting to improve. AGF took a vital win against FC Nordsjælland on Monday as they made a comeback to win 3-1. AGF won due to superior physique, and they will try to do the same to Silkeborg here, although they are not as fragile as FC Nordsjælland (however, not the same counter attacking risk). AGF have a lot of solid and hard working players combined with a very strong striker in Rasmussen who scored a brace in the last match. I am a bit concerned by the many new-signings of AGF, and I expect them to need some time to fully be in the best condition.

Silkeborg have been unlucky and they certainly don’t deserve a -14 goal difference. However, I still regard them as being the weakest side, they lack quality in all areas, so it is hard to see them dominating AGF who have a very strong midfield and a deadly striker. Odds have already drifted quite a bit, but I have AGF as value down to around 2.05.

Recommendation: 2 – 2.13 at Pinnacle

FC Nordsjælland-SønderjyskE

Sunday 18/9 12.00

It is a match between two sides who really need to get some success to boost the low confidence. FC Nordsjælland have been bad over a longer period. They have really struggled with many absences, and the bad results surely have affected their very young squad. I have figures that suggest that FC Nordsjælland have been the poorest squad of the season, as they simply don’t create enough in the opposition box and take too many low quality long-range shots. However, I see some reason for optimism as striker Ingvartsen seems to be finding form, while new winger Asante has deadly pace. Furthermore, a number of injured players are starting to return, for instance veteran winger Mikkelsen. SønderjyskE have performed poorly this season and they have been far from the level of last season. The main problem is that they invested a lot of energy in Europa League and was eventually knocked out cruelly 5 minutes before clinching the group stage. This has surely taken its toll on the squad and the question is when they are mentally back. Looking at the squad, they still have a fairly decent team and should be able to do better than currently. However, I don’t think selling defensive midfielder Guira on the last transfer day will do good as his contribution defensively was massive. SønderjyskE will be without strong striker Bechmann who continues to be injured.

I don’t agree with the price setting here. FC Nordsjælland do not have the same quality as SønderjyskE, so I can’t make them favorites here. It is true that FC Nordsjælland are usually very strong at home on the artificial pitch, but they have just changed the surface, so it will be the first match here for both teams. Furthermore, SønderjyskE love a match where the opposition wants possession and they can just sit back and counter with pacey players like Uhre, Absalonsen and Kroon. SønderjyskE also have a big advantage on set pieces, so I see them as favorites here. Only concern is how deep the wound from Europa League is; if they play like last weekend, they won’t win here.

Tip of the Week: 2 (DNB) – 2.00 at Unibet

OB-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 18/9 14.00

OB have disappointed so far. Yes, they have been unlucky in many matches and certainly deserved more points, but they have also had a pretty easy schedule. Now they are starting to face tougher opposition and it did not start too well, when they lost very deservedly 2-0 at FC Copenhagen. OB have a dangerous striker duo, but they have been firing blanks so far. You should expect them to improve, but OB probably won’t create as many chances in the upcoming matches. Defensively, they still have to work on the structure and especially the backs are not of high quality. FC Midtjylland finally made the turnaround and played a strong match against Esbjerg last weekend. They won 3-0 and it was well deserved. They created a lot of chances and van der Vaart also delivered a fine effort for 60 minutes. FC Midtjylland should improve from here as they have a top 3 team in terms of quality. They have allowed many easy goals, but I believe it to be more a matter of luck than poor defensive quality. They have had several poor performances during the season and there is some concern regarding the team spirit of some players, so don’t expect FC Midtjylland to be super reliable.

I have a feeling that FC Midtjylland are facing better times. They are stronger than OB, but OB should not be underestimated. They are still a fine team and they could thrive in a role, where they can lurk on counter-attacks. Despite my growing belief in FC Midtjylland, Bet365 are an outlier with 3.40 for a home win, which I believe is very slim value – it is quite a lot for OB to win at home.

Idea: 1 – 3.40 at Bet365
Update: OB will be without striker Jacobsen and left back Barrett. They lack a back-up solution for Barrett (he is already the back-up for injured Pereira) and Jacobsen is normally the most dangerous striker. With that in mind, I believe FC Midtjylland is value at 2.26 (Pinnacle)

Brøndby-Viborg

Sunday 18/9 16.00

Brøndby continue to impress. They took a deserved and impressive win in Aalborg last weekend, and it is obvious that they are playing with a lot of confidence at the moment. They were without offensive midfielder Mukhtar, but managed to create a lot of chances despite his absence. It could be more difficult here, against a more defensive-minded team. Defensively, Brøndby have some injury problems with two central defenders injured (Hermansson and Albrechtsen), why it is uncertain who will partner Röcker in the defence here. Brøndby have played remarkably well, and their current position is not due to luck. However, I sense that they could have some issues against teams that are defensive-minded and won’t give up space for Brøndby to practice their direct style. Viborg delivered a poor match against Horsens, where the dropped a 2-0 lead to lose 2-4. I don’t think the injury to winger Thychosen should be underestimated as his alternatives are far from his offensive quality. That leaves Viborg a bit shorthanded offensively, although they still have quality weapons in Park, Deble and Kamper. Nevertheless, it is significantly easier for the opponents to only have to focus on three players than four. The rest of the Viborg team is fairly defensive-minded and typically quite solid, although this was not the case against Horsens, where they allowed 9 shots from the penalty box after only averaging 6 shots in the previous (and “more difficult”) matches.

Given the quality of Brøndby this season, I can find small value in backing them here. The risk elements are that Viborg will be very compact and that gifted players like Deble and Park are capable of making something happen – so no recommendation here.

Idea: 1 – 1.57 at Tipico

Horsens-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 18/9 18.00

Horsens have performed way above expectations. They have been lucky in several matches, but their confidence is remarkable. They were down 2-0 in Viborg, but managed to find the strength to return. You would probably not see Silkeborg do that at the moment. I have Horsens noted as the luckiest team at the moment. Their scoring rate is crazy high. They are scoring on 44% of their shots on target, while the league average is 32%. Sorry, Horsens striker, but I don’t think it is just because you are just superior finishers. Dannevang is also doing a fine job in goal, and it also helps to win tight matches. Overall, I think Horsens will drop in the table, when luck starts to even out, although you should not underestimate the improving effect of confidence. FC Copenhagen are the best team in the league, although I think Brøndby have been challenging them lately. FC Copenhagen have not been as efficient lately, which is likely to be case for their minor slip in results. The double focus on Champions League and Superliga could also have its cost – and you could potentially see them resting a few players here given a very tough schedule ahead. Nevertheless, FC Copenhagen should still be big favourites here as their second string is also good enough to challenge for the title.

So the luckiest team in the league against the best team. The price has already dropped a bit for the away team, and given that I am uncertain that we will see them in strongest formation here, I simply cannot back them below 1.50. As mentioned, Horsens have been very efficient, but they have created very few chances. On the other hand, FC Copenhagen are the best at avoiding dangerous chances in the league, so I think a clean sheet for FC Copenhagen could be awaiting here.

Recommendation: Horsens under 0.5 goals – 2.10 at Pinnacle

Lyngby-AaB

Monday 19/9 19.00

Lyngby have played fairly well lately, but failed to harvest points. They have been somewhat unlucky, like they were a bit lucky in the early matches of the season. I have argued that Lyngby take to many shots from the distance. That looked a bit better in the last match against Randers, where they just failed to be efficient. They have a decent squad consisting of many veteran players and they seem very motivated. AaB’s lucky streak ended in the weekend. They lost deservedly to Brøndby. AaB have earned a lot of points from very tight matches, where they could just as easily have lost. They have made many changes in the summer break and they are still working to get it into full function. Therefore the current amount of points is above expectations. I think they lack a bit power offensively. Apart from the speed of Bassogog they have not delivered much until now. They will hope that Enevoldsen starts to find some of the form shown last season. Peruvian offensive player Flores is doubtful after missing the last match. He is also a player capable of making things happen offensively. AaB’s force compared to Lyngby is their ability to finish in the box, where they are currently ranked in the top of the league. Apart from this, it should be fairly even.

I think this will be a fairly even match. I hold AaB as favourites here. Although their offensive production is not much greater than Lyngby, they have the ability to finish it off in positions where it matters. Despite of this, I think that Lyngby’s improving form and AaB’s end of luck could mean something for the morale here. I think Unibet are a too generous with their price for home win (DNB) and I think it is worth a small shot.

Recommendation: 1 (DNB) – 2.48 at Unibet
Update: Central defender Holgersson has received a late ban from the last match. Not good for AaB as he has been the leader of the defense and also shown his strength on set pieces.