Week 11 Superliga previews

FC Copenhagen-AGF
Saturday 24/9 15.30

FC Copenhagen are the strongest side in the league, but the match against Randers proved that even they will suffer under a tough schedule and the ensuing rotation. Even though FC Copenhagen have some excellent reserves, they were not able to keep the usual high level after rotating a bit and they ended up with a fair draw. This will be FC Copenhagen’s 5th game in 14 days and they have a vital Champions League match against Club Brügge on Tuesday, so I don’t think we will see them with the best eleven here. Rotation winger Verbic will be rested, while vital central midfielder Delaney returns from a ban. AGF have played some poor matches, but were terrific in the last match against FC Midtjylland. They should have won, but they are still struggling with questionable goalkeeping, which seems to be a continuous problem no matter which goalkeeper is selected. AGF are a mid-table team with a solid midfield and an efficient striker, but defensively they have a lot to work with. AGF will have to do without central defender Soares and midfielders Spelman and Olsen. All are players that often are in the line-up, but none of them are irreplaceable, so their absence is mainly a problem for the quality on the bench.

With FC Copenhagen likely to rest players and AGF looking better, it would seem like an obvious pick to back the away side. Problem is that I think we are already late for that bus. Odds have dropped a lot on the away side due to this logic, and in my opinion it is enough. FC Copenhagen are 11-2-0 on own grass in 2016 and even if they rest 2-4 players, they will be significantly stronger than AGF that have obvious defensive issues. Line-ups will make us all wiser, but if I had to bet now, I would pick the home side.

Idea: 1 – 1.48 at Pinnacle

Viborg-Lyngby

Sunday 25/9 12.00

Viborg lost a fairly even match in Aalborg. Viborg have been quite unstable, but one thing to be quite consistent: poor showings on own turf. They are 1-1-3 at home this season. It is obvious that they are not comfortable when having to dictate matches. They make their best results when allowed to sit back and counter like they did at Brøndby a week ago. They had more than 56% ball possession against AaB, and that made it a bit more difficult as they struggle against compact defences. Viborg do have a solid team though. They are defensively strong and have some speedy forwards. Lyngby were lucky to beat Brøndby 1-0 in the last round, and for Lyngby it has generally been lucky or unlucky in all matches this season. Lyngby have been comfortable away from home this season, where they have looked quite lively and capable of producing chances. They have a lot of confidence at the moment based on two wins in a row, and their goalkeeper Jesper Hansen is really looking strong at the moment.

Viborg have the better side, but they could struggle in the role as favourite – similar to the match against Horsens two weeks ago (lost 2-4). I would go with Lyngby here. They have confidence and will enjoy sitting back and letting Viborg try to create something. Only idea pick as Lyngby have much worse fundamental stats, so based on a strictly stats approach Viborg would be the choice here.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.97 at Pinnacle

Randers-SønderjyskE

Sunday 25/9 14.00

Randers played an excellent match against FC Copenhagen in the midweek (2-2). They showed that they are a strong and capable team - top 6 looks like a certain outcome. For this match, they will welcome back central defenders Fenger and Agesen from bans, so the defence should be back to its best level. Randers have a decent midfield, where creative winger Fisker mostly impresses me. They have a very strong attack with a lot of options – Ishak and Pourie appear to be the preferred choice at the moment. SønderjyskE are on the way back! They have won two matches in a row and it is obvious what confidence can do. Don’t look too much at the table – they dropped many points at the start of the season due to Europa League. Now they should be able to use all energy on the Superliga and start to advance. They live on commitment and work rate, combined with a few highly skilled players, particularly wingers Kroon and Absalonsen. I think they have looked a bit fragile at the back recently, where they are trying to introduce a new young goalkeeper (Fernandes) and a central defender that has been injured for a long time (Luijckx).

Randers arrive here with one more day for preparation and SønderjyskE looked fairly tired at the end of the last match, where they conceded several chances despite being 11 against 10. Randers will also welcome back key players, so they will be in strongest formation here. Randers have been doing great this season – they hold a shots on target ratio of 58% (only surpassed by the 3 big teams: FCK, FCM and Brøndby) and they are at home here, so they deserve to be clear favourites. Should be value down to 2.00.

Tip of the Week: 1 – 2.13 at Pinnacle
Update: Randers defender Fenger has picked up an injury during training and is out here. Odds have already dropped a bit (around 2.00), so stay out at current prices.

Brøndby-OB

Sunday 25/9 16.00

Brøndby have lost two matches in a row. They were poor in the first match, but did better against Lyngby (won shots on target statistic 10-1!). However, it seems obvious that they have lost some of the belief that fuelled them at the start of the season. I still regard them as a clear top 3 team and they have a lot of offensive firepower in the trio of Wilczek, Pukki and Hjulsager (1, 2 and 3 on the league top goalscorer list!). Brøndby have a shots on target ratio of 76% - that is serious stuff and hugely impressive, but their style allows opponents to take too many shots from own penalty box. So while they concede only few shots on target, they are the team conceding the largest percentage of shots from own penalty area! Brøndby might be able to welcome creative ace Mukhtar back from injury, he could do a difference as Brøndby have faded a bit after his injury. OB are the most in-crisis team in the league. They have lost five matches in a row, they have not scored in the last four matches and confidence is low. Add to this that the list of absences just grows. OB have been without both left backs, right back Lund and key striker Jacobsen. While I expect this could be the case for this match too, the situation has only worsened as most important midfielder Makrini picked up a suspension. It is really difficult to find any optimism for OB supporters, as they don’t have much proven quality to bring from the outskirts of the squad.

Unless Jacobsen makes a return here, I find it really difficult to see how OB should do any damage to Brøndby here. They are low on confidence and quality at the moment. This could end badly for OB, and only comfort must be that Brøndby are not experiencing the best period either. Still I think it is value to bet on a big home win as OB are in a situation where they risk falling apart under Brøndby’s aggressive pressure.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -1) – 2.09 at SBOBet
Update: Lund is back for OB. The rest are out. Slight improvement, but still not good for the away side.

FC Midtjylland-Horsens

Sunday 25/9 18.00

FC Midtjylland played two good matches, leading me to believe that they were back on track, but the match against AGF (1-1) showed that they are still unstable. They were lucky not to lose. It was also another match that suggested that the situation in the dressing room is far from optimal. Several players have made gestures suggesting they are not satisfied by head coach Thorup’s decisions. FC Midtjylland are undoubtedly a very strong side (top 3 quality), but they are only showing it in glimpses. Horsens have been the biggest surprise on the season. They are strong at the back and work hard, but they are also very lucky. I have them down as the luckiest side in the league. They have a positive goal difference +1, but my figures suggest it should have been -7 if things had been fair. They have been so efficient in front of goal and I can’t see that continuing.

I think the 1X2 market has been set pretty well. FC Midtjylland are way better than Horsens and I doubt Horsens can continue to create miracles based on efficiency. It’s a no bet for me, but given that I always provide some sort of pick, I would go for Horsens not to score. FC Midtjylland proved in a similar match against Esbjerg that they can keep an opponent from quality chances and Horsens have not produced much offensively this season.

Idea: Horsens under 0.5 goals – 2.01 at Pinnacle

FC Nordsjælland-Esbjerg

Sunday 25/9 20.00

The youth team, FC Nordsjælland, finally got a point after a rather tough period. They played a defensively solid match at Horsens (0-0), but the match also proved that they are not good at creating chances when not playing on own artificial turf. Now they return to their favourite pitch, and I expect to see them being livelier. FC Nordsjælland have a lot of weak points due to them fielding so many young players – particularly on the backs and central midfield. In attack, I think they look strong with Ingvartsen and the speedy Asante. They can be deadly for a team leaving space to counter. Goalkeeper Runarsson is set to miss the match, but I don’t think the back up is worse. Esbjerg have been awfully poor this season. They don’t create much offensively, where they really struggle under the lack of a true striker. They have only had a total of four shots on target in the last three matches! Furthermore, they are very reliant of the creative production of midfielder Andersen and he left the last match with an injury, which will keep him out here. It’s a big problem for Esbjerg that are set to line-up with a very defensive midfield with Palsson and Jørgensen. I think they could get problems against the technical Nordsjælland midfielders on the artificial pitch. Esbjerg will put their faith in the speedy offensive player Mensah, who can create something on his own, but otherwise it does not look good. Esbjerg’s best central defender Nordvik missed the last match and could be out here too – concerning for the fragile backline.

I have not had much faith in FC Nordsjælland in recent matches, but I will back them here. Esbjerg have been poor lately and without their best player Andersen and perhaps also Nordvik, it is not looking good for them. FC Nordsjælland are always way stronger at home, and I think they deserve to be bigger favourites here.

Recommendation: 1 (AH -0.25) – 2.02 at Pinnacle

Update: Nordvik has been confirmed out, so Esbjerg miss their best central defender and the captain/best central midfielder (Andersen).

Silkeborg-AaB

Monday 26/9 19.00

Silkeborg are experiencing an improvement in form. Especially the return of winger Skov seems to have boosted their offensive capabilities. At the same time, confidence seems to be returning after a miserable start to the season. Silkeborg are still one of the weaker sides, they lack quality in general, but with confidence and a quality player like Skov they can earn some points. AaB returned to winning ways after some disappointing results. They won a tight match against Viborg despite the absence of some key players. For this match, central defener Holgersson will return and it will undoubtedly improve the central defence. However, a just as vital player will miss out as central midfielder Würtz (captain) is banned. Adding to this, AaB still expect to be without attacker Enevoldsen and left back Ahlmann, so the slim squad is getting a challenge. The starting eleven should be fine though, but AaB still struggle a bit with the offensive production. However, Silkeborg could get problems with the speed of striker Bassogog.

AaB have more quality, but they also have two days less rest in a tight schedule. This won’t be an easy match for the away side, but I still believe that they should be favourites due to the squad superiority. However, I would like the price to be just a bit bigger. Market should like the issues for AaB with less rest and the absence of the captain, so if you wait you could perhaps get a better price. I think they are value from around 2.20 for the straight win. I pick the more conservative -0.25 line here as an idea.

Idea: 2 (AH -0.25) – 1.88 at Pinnacle