Week 8 Superliga previews

Randers-Lyngby

Friday 9/9 18.00

Randers have had a fairly good start, but they have also managed to win some tight matches – it is noteworthy that they are without a win with more than one goal. Randers have had some issues with the offensive production, which has been only average, but they have made some very interesting offensive signings, so that should change. It will be interesting to see what Randers does offensively as they have five quality strikers and only two spots for them. It should induce competition, but could also create problems at some point later in the season due to disappointed players. Randers have some midfield issues with both regular central midfielders Allansson and Poulsen struggling with injuries, so this is a clear minus on an otherwise solid looking team. Lyngby deserved a win in the last round, but lacked the efficiency that they had in the opening matches. I would say, this is a typical case of luck evening out. Lyngby scored on almost every shot on target they had in the first matches, but in the last two matches, they have not been as efficient. Lyngby are playing fairly good for a promoted side, but they are still taking way too many poor shots from the distance.

I think Randers could get something really exciting going if some of their quality strikers get in gear. I think Lyngby could find it very difficult to contain Randers for an entire match – although I acknowledge that Lyngby also have the ability to hurt Randers. I think the bookies got this fairly right, but if anything I think Randers are very slim value here.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.5) – 1.81 at SBOBet

FC Midtjylland-Esbjerg

Friday 9/9 20.15

FC Midtjylland have not had the desired start. They have really struggled to get their game going over the last matches – they have not won in the last four league matches and also got knocked out of Europe. The poor performance and the general feeling of a lack of direction (constant changes in line-up) have led many fans to call for a dismissal of head coach Thorup. FC Midtjylland made some big changes at the end of the transfer window as they offloaded offensive player Kadlec who looked demotivated, while bringing in striker Bruninho who was excellent in FC Nordsjælland last season and winger Gustav Wikheim who is a great talent. I don’t expect any of these to make a major impact from the start though. It will also be interesting to see how much game time van der Vaart will get after having some more time to get into shape. He did fine in the few minutes he received in his league debut. Despite all the negative critique of FC Midtjylland, I still think they have the second best squad in the league, and the fundamental stats suggest that they have played as the 3rd best team, but lacked some luck (conceded to many easy goals). Esbjerg are improving and the mentality in the squad seem to have changed significantly for the better. Esbjerg still have some issues – the central defence lack quality, while they also struggle due to the lack of an in-form striker. Otherwise, they have a decent squad with a good midfield and some strong offensive backs.

FC Midtjylland have been a bit unlucky not to earn more points, but I also think they have underperformed – and currently they are still in a negative state, where they have not yet made the turnaround for better times. Therefore, I would rather pick the team, where optimism has started to return even though they are significantly weaker player-by-player.

Idea: 2 (AH +1.25) – 1.79 at Pinnacle

Viborg-Horsens

Saturday 10/9 14.00

Viborg are a team I enjoy following. The combination of very strong defensive work combined with extraordinary offensive players is exciting. They are among the strongest at avoiding shots from own penalty box, while also having a fine offensive production. The offensive production could struggle in the future after the long-term injury for Thychosen in the last match. Thychosen had been in great form and Viborg lack a quality alternative for him and this limits Viborg to only three offensive weapons (Deble, Park and Kamper). This will naturally make it easy to defend for opponents, but it is still a strong trio with a lot of flair. Horsens have performed way above expectations, but they have been very lucky and had an easy schedule. Lucky: they have a total shot ratio of only 36%, but have a goal difference of +1. In other words, they have been incredibly (read: unsustainably) efficient. As luck start to even out, while the difficulty of match schedule increases, I am sure that Horsens will drop out of the top 6. With that being said, Horsens should not be underestimated. They are a hard working bunch that can make a lot happen on team spirit and commitment – just like SønderjyskE last season and Hobro the season before.

Viborg are the stronger side here, but they could face some problems with the absence of Thychosen. Furthermore, Viborg have a team that is very suited for counter-attacking, and I am not as convinced about their abilities when having to dominate the match – something they can be sure to do against Horsens that purposely have the lowest average ball possession in the league (38%). Despite of this, I still pick Viborg – they should dominate the match and I can’t see Horsens luck continue indefinitely.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.5) – 2.08 at Unibet

FC Copenhagen-OB

Saturday 10/9 16.00

FC Copenhagen have had a really good start to the season. They have qualified to the Champions League and apart from the last match against Brøndby, they have dominate every match played. I am quite sure they will go on to take home the title as the squad quality and depth are a level above the rest. The strong team also has a price in the sense that many players have been away on international duty, which for most should not be a problem. However, key striker Santander is playing in South America in midweek and could return quite late for this match – possibly a bit jetlagged too, so FC Copenhagen might rest him. Furthermore, winger Falk is having problems with a concussion, which might keep him out of this match against his former club. A lot of people have been quite harsh on OB after a disappointing start. The schedule has been easy, but the harvest has been poor. However, OB have deserved a lot more than what they earned. In fact, they have dominated almost every match played, but only managed to win one out of seven. The problem is mainly a low saving rate, something that is concerning as OB have really upgraded (on paper) the defensive during the summer break. I expect OB to improve their numbers, also offensively, and this should mean more points – although the increase in match schedule difficulty naturally has the opposite effect.

FC Copenhagen are way stronger than OB and they are really difficult to handle on their own pitch. FC Copenhagen have won 10 out of 11 home league matches in 2016! It will be very difficult for OB, their midfield will be overmatched, and only way of picking up a point will be through inefficiency of FC Copenhagen. Price very low, but you could argue it has value – FC Copenhagen should win this 7 out of 10 times.

Idea: 1 – 1.45 at Tipico

SønderjyskE-Silkeborg

Sunday 11/9 16.00

SønderjyskE have had a rough start to the season due to strong focus on Europa League combined with a slim squad. Now, they are knocked out of Europe (cruelly) and stuck in the bottom of the table. They will need to find motivation, but they have a committed bunch, so this should not be a problem. What is concerning is the club selling defensive midfielder Guira on the last day of the transfer window. I rate him highly in the defensive work, and he will be very difficult to replace. On the positive side is the possible return of striker Bechmann. Bechmann has been dearly missed lately, but the veteran striker is reported back on the training ground. Silkeborg are the worst side in the league and concede way too many chances, but it is important to note that they have actually been able to create quite a bit themselves too – they have just lacked efficiency. The question is whether they will continue in this slump like two seasons ago, where the poor start continued to haunt them despite a decent shot production or whether they can turn it around and get some confidence boosting success.

I am not too impressed by Silkeborg’s defensive strength, but SønderjyskE are not the strongest side offensively. I think SønderjyskE are a bit overvalued here, although they are difficult to assess due to their tight schedule at the start of the season. I think SønderjyskE will dominate, but I see some value in picking Silkeborg not to suffer a big loss. But the best bet is arguably a low-scoring match. Both of the teams have rather weak attacks, and I think Silkeborg arrives in order to defend – even if they should concede the first goal.

Recommendation: Under 2.75 goals – 1.86 at Pinnacle
Idea: 2 (AH +1) – 1.80 at Bet365

Update: Bechmann has been ruled out – good news for both bets.

AaB-Brøndby

Sunday 11/9 18.00

AaB have had a really good start, but they have also been very lucky. They have won all their matches with just one goal. They have had decent offensive production, but nothing more and their success is largely fuelled on very high efficiency, which I find unsustainable. However, they have made a lot of interesting signings, and I only expect them to improve their match dominance, although they should start to suffer from poorer efficiency. Offensive regulars Enevoldsen and Børsting are set to return after injury, while another regular Flores might be rested as he is expected to arrive late from internationals in South America. Brøndby have been amazing this season. They have managed to cope with a heavy schedule, and I would say you could argue they have been the best side in every Superliga match this season – even in the difficult away game against FC Midtjylland and the home game against FC Copenhagen. Brøndby have a energetic side that have been really dangerous in away matches – they have scored 12 goals in 3 away matches! Not a coincidence as Brøndby’s aggressive high-pressing strategy works good against teams that are not super-defensive. There are some negative squad news as the two vital midfielders Hjulsager and Mukhtar have problems with minor injuries. Hjulsager has assured he will be ready, while the status of Mukhtar is more uncertain. Both have been incredibly important, so their (lack of) participation could move odds significantly.

It is a match between two teams with the same points earned. However, there is a big difference in underlying performance, highlighted by the difference in goal difference: AaB at +4, Brøndby at +17. I think Brøndby have looked incredibly strong all season and I expect them to dominate in Aalborg, even though I think AaB should only improve in the games ahead. I pick Brøndby to win here. Regarding the price, I think it is excellent if Mukhtar and Hjulsager are both playing. It is okay if only one of them is playing, but not good if both are absent – so we are taking some team news risk here.

 Tip of the Week: 2 (AH +0) – 1.90 at Pinnacle
Update: Mukhtar has been ruled out, so it makes the bet somewhat worse. Still thinks it is okay at the price, but no more bad team news is needed.

AGF-FC Nordsjælland

Monday 12/9 19.00

AGF made a decent rebound in the last round after losing 0-7 at home to Brøndby. The 2-1 loss in Aalborg showed that AGF are still a decent football team, but they have a task to do given the several signings they have made during the summer. The made two signings on the last day of the window, and I expect left back Juelsgaard to go straight into the line-up given the ban for normal left back Khodzhaniazov. I think their starting line-up looks decent, especially with the return of midfielder Daniel A. Pedersen from injury. My main concern is whether the team has the necessary structure that comes with continuity – it is side with a remarkable number of rather new-signed players and a large degree of non-Danish players. FC Nordsjælland have been very bad so far. They are the team with the fewest shots fired from the penalty box, they have a bad habit of firing to many shots from the distance (also the case last season) – and furthermore, they concede a lot of shots from own penalty box. Not the recipe for success. I was expecting to see them improve massively in the last round with the return of Maxsø and Gregor from the Olympics, combined with the signing of winger Asante. However, FC Nordsjælland played bad against Lyngby, but won anyway. FC Nordsjælland have sold regular right back Rodrigues and replaced him with young the young Croatian Bartolec on the last transfer day. Although Rodrigues were not a big success in FC Nordsjælland, it is another signing that will decrease the already very young average age. The lack of experience could be a problem in the current situation, where FC Nordsjælland are struggling to get the game going.

AGF are in a state of transition, but they should still be stronger than a very young FC Nordsjælland that is doing really bad at the moment. I would not pick AGF as a recommendation for the reasons mentioned earlier, as I still want to see how they cope with the many recent changes.

Idea: 1 (AH -0.5) – 2.025 at Bet365