Week 12 Superliga previews

OB-AGF
Friday 30/9 18.00

OB are in a poor state. They have lost six league matches in a row and not scored in the last five matches. OB have been poor, they have allowed many chances and not created as much as you would expect, but the fact that they have not scored is ridiculous. They have had 44 attempts in the penalty box in the last five matches and from that you should expect 7 goals scored on average. So luck is certainly one thing to blame here. OB have also suffered under many absences, but there is positive news here. Strong midfielder Makrini is back from ban. Left back Barrett returns from injury and the same is the case with key striker Jacobsen. However, Jacobsen playing from the start is uncertain. AGF suffered the expected loss against FC Copenhagen. Apart from that, their form has been improving. They were very strong against FC Midtjylland, but they suffer from the lack of quality in the goal and they consistently produce lower saving rates than the other teams. It makes life difficult for AGF, since they need even more chances than the opponent on average to take wins. AGF have struggled with some midfield injuries, but they could be on the way back with Olsen the most probable player to return here.

A match between two teams that have struggled to earn points lately. Both have higher ambitions than the current positions and both should be aiming for a win here. History shows that these teams often play matches with many goals (9 out of last 10 head-to-head league games have had more than 2.5 goals) and this could be the case here too. I don’t take OB’s lack of scoring so serious as they are still producing a good number of opportunities, while AGF consistently have a lower saving rate than other teams. So, I would pick the over here.

Idea: Over 2.75 goals – 2.17 at SBOBet

Silkeborg-FC Nordsjælland

Friday 30/9 20.15

Silkeborg are looking strong at the moment and have not lost in the last four matches. I recently claimed that Silkeborg was the weakest side in the league, but now I have started to doubt that. They have really improved their production with the return of Skov from injury, while the new signings Moro and Helenius are raising the bar. Silkeborg won deservedly against AaB on Monday and this proves that they have a lot of quality. Silkeborg mostly rely on commitment and organisation, but they have some individuals like Skov and Skhirtladze that can create something on their own. FC Nordsjælland are another team that has started to improve. They won easily against Esbjerg and you should not underestimate what confidence can do for this young team. They have something to build on and with the return of left back Pedersen, they are getting close to the best starting eleven. I am still not too excited about their central midfield, which I believe is too weak and often risk getting dominated (especially away from home). The attack is looking interesting though, striker Ingvartsen is in great shape and the speedy Asante can punish if the opponents leave too much space behind the defenders. FC Nordsjælland take way too many low quality shots from the distance, and this should be a focal point.

Both sides are optimistic ahead of this match and will go for a win. Maybe, my perception of Silkeborg is still lagging, but I think FC Nordsjælland could be a difficult task for them. Silkeborg don’t have a strong defence and against the offensive speed of FC Nordsjælland, they could get problems. Silkeborg will try to dominate FC Nordsjælland physically, but their inferiority on speed and technique could be costly. I can’t make Silkeborg favourites as the bookies here. I think this match is almost even, but I acknowledge that FC Nordsjælland historically tend to struggle away from own artificial pitch.

Recommendation: 2 (DNB) – 2.18 at Unibet

Horsens-Esbjerg

Saturday 1/10 16.00

Horsens have had an amazing start to the season given expectations. They have been quite efficient, but they deserve credit for their fighting spirit. They have a physical squad with many quite big players. Defensively, there is still something to work on, as they have been the side conceding the most chances from the penalty box this season. Offensively, they have some confident offensive players that have proved that they can find the net (Aabech, Finnbogason and Bjerregaard). Esbjerg have been terrible this season. As it is right now, I really like my Esbjerg to relegate bet from pre-season. They can’t create things offensively and they rank last in shots from the penalty box. They are without their most important offensive weapon, central midfielder and captain Andersen, and it is really hurtful as he seems to raise the bar for the rest of the team. In the last match, Esbjerg tried using veteran Jørgensen instead, but FC Nordsjælland had no problems beating Esbjerg’s very poorly adjusted midfield. I expect head coach Todd to try something different here – he has too. Also, there is rumours of some conflicts during the midweek training, so it appears like the spirit in Esbjerg is quite bad.

Horsens have been quite lucky, but looking at fundamental stats, they are still stronger than Esbjerg, who appears to be the weakest side in the league currently. This would seem like the obvious home bet, and I am also picking the home side here, but only as an idea. My concern is that Horsens could struggle in a role as favourite, as they prefer to sit back and wait for opponents to make mistakes. I also like the under bet here. Esbjerg can’t create things offensively at the moment and Horsens could also struggle offensively given the favourite stamp.

Ideas: 1 (AH -0.25) – 1.96 at Pinnacle

Under 2.5 goals – 1.83 at Pinnacle

AaB-SønderjyskE

Sunday 2/10 12.00

AaB have had a good season based on points gained, but the performance has not been as good (just look at the xG map from the Silkeborg match posted at my twitter page). They had many slim wins at the start of the season, but recently they have not had the same luck and they have started to lose matches. Fans are not happy, as the performance has been quite poor compared to the expectations. However, perhaps it is not so surprising, as AaB made many changes in the summer break (lost several key players) – but the successful (in points) start to the season raised the expectations, which now seems to be a burden. AaB have struggled a bit with injuries and bans lately, which is quite hurtful due to limited squad depth. For this match, AaB are still without left back Ahlmann and attacker Enevoldsen, while defensive midfielder Würtz returns from ban. The return of Würtz is vital, the veteran captain is excellent at creating balance in the midfield. SønderjyskE have won three matches in a row and are brimming with confidence after a tough start to the season. They are a defensively solid team with quality on set pieces and counters. Unfortunately, one of their best players, winger Absalonsen, misses the match with an injury. SønderjyskE do not have the most impressive squad depth either, so this is a significant minus.

AaB are normally a good home team, but I think they have som big issues offensively at the moment. They rely a lot on the speed of Bassogog as other offensive weapons are fairly bleak at the moment. SønderjyskE on the other hand, have not lost in the last six league games, and are typically a good away side due to their counter-attacking nature. Not massive value, but I would back the away side here.

Idea: 2 (AH +0.25) – 1.90 at Bet365

Lyngby-FC Midtjylland

Sunday 2/10 14.00

Lyngby are having a spectacular run at the moment. The promoted side has won the last three matches 1-0, which is hugely impressive and they are undoubtedly very confident at the moment. I just feel that the results are lying. Lyngby have been very lucky – just look at the xG maps on my Twitter. They should probably have had one draw and two losses in the last two matches, but luck was on their side. In the last three matches they have had 18 shots and scored 3 goals, while the opponents have had 62 shots and scored 0 goals! Yes, Lyngby have a really good goalkeeper, possible the best in the league, but this is just insanely lucky/efficient. A don’t think Lyngby can keep this up. However, it is worth noticing that the matches have been fairly even until Lyngly’s opening goal and afterwards they have created nothing, so maybe the figures are lying a bit, since Lyngby only want to defend – but it is still a massive number of chances allowed. FC Midtjylland are a top 3 team, but have not started so good in terms of points. They seem to be back on track now, although there have been some examples of an unhealthy atmosphere in the squad. However, they have a really strong team (van der Vaart for instance!) and they should be a level above Lyngby. It will be interesting to see if new winger Wikheim can build on his great match last week. I have seen him play for Strømsgodset and he looked really strong then, so I think he could be a solid signing for FC Midtjylland.

I have Lyngby as the luckiest side in the league currently. Based on stats, I think they should have had a -6 goal difference, but they have a +1 goal difference. I think we will see that goal difference revert to the mean at some point, and I am quite sure that they will need some luck here to get another win, as anything else then shot dominance from FC Midtjylland would be very surprising. I think the price puts too much in Lyngby’s wins and I would be happy to back FC Midtjylland until 1.85.

Tip of the Week: 2 (AH -0.5) – 1.97 at Unibet

Viborg-FC Copenhagen

Sunday 2/10 16.00

Viborg have had a slightly disappointing season so far. I think, that they have played as expected, but they have been a little bit unlucky, why I think they fairly should have earned a couple of points more. Another problem for Viborg has been a continuous stream of injuries. Especially, the injury for in-form winger Thychosen has proved hurtful, and a number of other injuries mean that Viborg don’t have a lot to bring from the bench. Offensively, I still think they have some good cards in Deble and Park, although they are too wasteful (but they do create chances). Viborg are very solid at the back, only FC Copenhagen and Brøndby have allowed fewer shots from own penalty box. FC Copenhagen continue to prove how strong they are. The midweek 4-0 win against Club Bruges in the Champions League was hugely impressive, but could also have an influence here as there is a risk that the FC Copenhagen players could be a bit too relaxed. This seems to have been the case earlier this season as FC Copenhagen only has 2 wins in 5 away games. They will have to do without striker Santander who is injured, but although Santander is their best striker, they have some great alternatives.

Viborg and FC Copenhagen have met twice during the last year and both matches have ended in a draw. Viborg are not easy to break down, although they look slightly weaker this time around, while FC Copenhagen seem very strong. Nevertheless, I just can’t find value in the away side here, as they have had a tough programme and could be a bit too relaxed here.

Recommendation: 1 (AH +1.25) – 1.79 at SBOBet

Brøndby-Randers

Sunday 2/10 18.00

Brøndby were back to winning ways last weekend (3-0 against OB). It was another match, where Brøndby created a big amount of chances. They have really showed big offensive strength this season and they have the most shots on goal by a distance. Defensively, they still give away some chances due to their aggressive and risky style, but it is actually not bad due to the ability to maintain the pressure on the opponent. Brøndby have struggled in a few matches recently, but with the return of Mukhtar in the last match, they again look offensively productive. Randers have had a good start to the season. They should be able to snatch a top 6 spot as they have a quite solid squad, especially offensively. They suffered a hurtful 0-4 defeat to SønderjyskE in the last round, mainly due to an early red card to central midfielder Poulsen. He will miss this match and the same is the case for key central defender Fenger who is injured. Especially the latter is a problem as Randers are set to be put under pressure. Offensively, they have some weapons in Ishak and Pourie that should be able to hurt an attacking Brøndby.

Brøndby were back at full strength last weekend, and therefore it is natural to expect the same here. Randers are suffering from some absences, but also have quality to hurt Brøndby. The price has been tumbling down on Brøndby and it has reached a level, where I don’t want to back them (remember they have dropped points to Viborg and Horsens at home this season). No obvious picks here, but if you forced me, I would pick over 2.5 goals.

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.80 at Tipico