Who will win, relegate and be crowned top goalscorer in the Danish Superliga?

We have used the weekend of no Superliga football to compile this overview of the Superliga teams and our assessment of their strength. We use a range of statistical measures for which you can see an explanation below. This overview also contains some bets on league positions and league top goalscorer. There should be fine value a few places. So read and let us convince you.

We use the following statistical measures:

TSR, Total Shots Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots in their matches. This is defined as:

TSR=Total shots by team/Total shots by team and opponent

SoTR, Shots on Target Ratio, is a team’s share of the total shots on target in their matches. This is defined as:

SoTR=Total shots on target by team/Total shots on target by team and opponent

PDO, is a measure from hockey, that has been applied to football. Our use of it is to evaluate how lucky/unlucky a team has been during the season. PDO is defined as:
PDO=1000x(Saving%+Scoring%).

The teams (sorted by current position in the table)

1. FC Midtjylland (12 points)

SoTR: 63.0% (1st)

TSR: 56.5% (3rd)

PDO: 1024 (4th)

Ball possession: 50.8% (7th)

Goals scored: 11

Goals conceded: 6

FC Midtjylland are the strongest team in the league at dominating their opponent in terms of shots on target. Based on the first five games, they are deservedly in the lead. They look like a prime candidate for the title due to their very strong midfield with the speedy wingers Pione Sisto and Sylvester Igboun plus intelligent veterans in Jakob Poulsen and Petter Andersson. Their main weakness is the backline where the standard of the current backs is low (remember, right back Kristian Bak is injured). The latest news of a serious injury for normal lone striker Morten Duncan Rasmusssen is bad news for the title ambitions. Alternative Paul Onuachu (who is one of the tallest footballers you will see) has some skills but clearly lacks some experience.

Our guess: 1st position – okay, it is a clear minus that they will be without Morten Duncan Rasmussen and Kristian Bak for the upcoming months. But they are still a strong team and they have a good initial advantage compared to the others. Furthermore, they are very likely not to be troubled by European matches in autumn (unless they can rebound after a 4-1 loss in Panathinaikos).

Top goalscorer: Morten Duncan Rasmussen is still the main candidate here, but he will probably not be a candidate for the league top goalscorer due to the injury.

2. Hobro (10 points)

SoTR: 46.8% (8th)

TSR: 40.7% (12th)

PDO: 1244 (1st)

Ball possession: 36.6% (12th)

Goals scored: 8

Goals conceded: 3

Hobro have been a major surprise. No one expected them to win against Brøndby and FC Copenhagen, but they did and now they are a part of the top. Their fundamental stats are not good though. They are at the bottom in dominating their matches in terms of creating chances. Their PDO is also unsustainable high, indicating that they have been quite lucky so far. It is worth noting that their schedule has been pretty difficult until now, so this is partly the reason for the stats. The stats do tell some truth though. Hobro are not strong enough to maintain a position in the top. They have a good team spirit and a very skilled offensive player in Antipas. However, it is clear that they are very dependent on Antipas. If he has a bad day, the team is likely to struggle.

Our guess: 11th position – they have got a good start, but they have also been amazingly efficient. It is still early in the season and the relegation line is not far away.

Top goalscorer: Mads Hvilsom has scored four goals so far. Amazing. He will probably remain Hobro’s top goalscorer throughout the season, but we doubt he will have any chance of becoming league top goalscorer.

3. FC Nordsjælland (10 points)

SoTR: 56.3% (2nd)

TSR: 52.7% (5th)

PDO: 1000 (7th)

Ball possession: 54.2% (5th)

Goals scored: 9

Goals conceded: 7

The new coach Olafur Kristjansson has done outstandingly so far. He has added a good mentality to FC Nordsjælland that has succeeded in coming back from a threatening defeat in three matches. FC Nordsjælland have some of the best wingers in the league in Uffe Bech and Joshua John. We doubt they will be able to keep Bech for the season (if he stays fit). They lack a good striker with neither Morten Nordstrand nor Kristian Lindberg impressing (new striker will arrive in winter transfer window). Midfield is good for matches where they dominate possession, but lack some bite when they are the underdog. The defense is the Achilles heel with central defenders Ivan Runje and Pascal Gregor lacking quality (Runje in terms of physique and Gregor in terms of experience).

Our guess: 5th – they have had a good start and should have quality to maintain a top half finish, especially if they retain Bech and John.

Top goalscorer: Bech is the current top goalscorer, but the question is whether he will stay for the entire season. Our guess for a top goalscorer is Joshua John.

4. Randers (9 points)

SoTR: 44.9% (9th)

TSR: 51.3% (6th)

PDO: 1005 (6th)

Ball possession: 55.0% (3rd)

Goals scored: 5

Goals conceded: 6

Randers were predicted a poor season after losing striker Ronnie Schwartz in the transfer window. The first period with Schwartz has not indicated that they miss him severely. Okay, Randers maybe lack some power offensively, but they are still a strong team with physique and routine. If the newly signed striker Mikael Ishak is a hit, Randers could be heading for a good season. They do lack some individual quality, why they will not have a chance to finish in the top.

Our guess: 7th - Randers are the most probable mid-table finish of the season. They are too strong to get into relegation problems, but not strong enough to play for medals.

Top goalscorer: Lundberg, Ishak and Fall compete for the two striker positions. We have a feeling that the new guy Ishak might become the strongest weapon.

5. FC Vestsjælland (7 points)

SoTR: 44.4% (10th)

TSR: 42.5% (9th)

PDO: 1170 (3rd)

Ball possession: 44.8% (9th)

Goals scored: 9

Goals conceded: 7

Last season FC Vestsjælland were a very grey team. This season, under the realm of new head coach Michael Hansen, some colours have started to emerge. FC Vestsjælland are now more than a team that just defends. They still have the strong physique and work rate, but have added strong passing/crossing skills with the addition of winger Anders Due. Furthermore, it seems like striker Rasmus Festersen is really improving due to Hansen’s more offensive tactics. They are however still a team without the great solo player and they pretty much falls into the same category as Randers. They have been a little lucky so far and should drop in the standings.

Our guess: 9th – same story as Randers – maybe just a bit weaker, but should not get into relegation problems as long as they do not run into many injuries (limited squad depth).

Top goalscorer: Rasmus Festersen is our main candidate for the top goalscorer title, although Dennis Sørensen is a veteran that is always good for some goals throughout a season.

6. Brøndby (7 points)

SoTR: 48.9% (7th)

TSR: 55.9% (4th)

PDO: 1012 (5th)

Ball possession: 61.0% (1st)

Goals scored: 6

Goals conceded: 6

Brøndby are not as dominant in the stats as they were the last season (one reason could be that the shooting happy Antipas left). They have struggled a bit initially and we believe that is partly due to a lack of continuity offensively (injuries). They are strong offensively and when players like Simon Makienok, Alexander Szymanowski and Johan Elmander get some games together we believe they will be a very dangerous trio. However, Brøndby are not very good defensively. The central defence is not very good, why Brøndby are very likely to lose games where they are not dominating possession.

Our guess: 3rd – if they manage to keep Makienok, we believe that Brøndby’s strong offense will lead to a good position and possibly a medal.

Top goalscorer: If Simon Makienok stays in the club (and stays fit) he is an almost certain top goalscorer since Brøndby are playing with a lone striker. He is also a good candidate for the league top goalscorer title due to him being a lone striker in an offensively strong team.

7. AaB (6 points)

SoTR: 37.8% (12th)

TSR: 40.9% (10th)

PDO: 1183 (2nd)

Ball possession: 54.2% (5th)

Goals scored: 5

Goals conceded: 4

The defending champions have had a rough start to the season. According to the stats they have actually been quite lucky. They are the team with the fewest shots on target (only 14 in 5 matches!). A major reason for this is the poor state of the midfield during the first matches. The loss of the creative force Kasper Kusk (sold) and injuries to Nicolaj Thomsen, Rasmus Würtz and Kasper Risgård proved vital. Fortunately, the injured players are now back, and AaB (and the stats) should improve from now on. As striker Nicklas Helenius improves his form, AaB should also score more goals. A minus is that AaB will have to play European football this autumn. They lack squad depth (AaB have many long term injuries for rotation players), and this will probably affect them in the league.

Our guess:  4th – when all players are fit, AaB are among the strongest in the league. But the many matches in autumn are likely to cause injuries and fatigue, so we believe that a spot just outside the podium is the most likely for AaB.

Top goalscorer: Anders K. Jacobsen has looked very strong so far, but Nicklas Helenius is more of a goal getter. We believe he will outperform Jacobsen over the course of a season.

8. OB (5 points)

SoTR: 52.9% (4th)

TSR: 48.1% (7th)

PDO: 931 (8th)

Ball possession: 46.8% (8th)

Goals scored: 6

Goals conceded: 7

OB have visually been performing quite bad so far. According to the stats it looks a bit better. They have some brilliant players in wingers Emil Larsen and Rasmus Falk, but the rest are quite average. OB have been in acute need of a strong striker, but the addition of Georgian striker Vladimir Dvalishvili could be the solution (at least OB fans hope so). OB are a strong counter attacking team, but they are not very good when they dominate possession.

Our guess: 8th - A mid-table finish is the maximum this season. Worst case is relegation, but the quality of the team should be too strong even though it seems like the players are easily affected if things turn bad.

Top goalscorer: Rasmus Falk is our best guess. He is a local boy with great passion for the team. His offensive abilities will undoubtedly result in some goals during the season. The unknown, Dvalishvili, is our alternative.

9. SønderjyskE (5 points)

SoTR: 50.0% (6th)

TSR: 40.7% (11th)

PDO: 909 (9th)

Ball possession: 41.2% (11th)

Goals scored: 4

Goals conceded: 6

The stats tell that SønderjyskE belong in the lower half of the table. We believe it too be a correct assessment, although SønderjyskE should improve when veterans Tommy Bechmann, Daniel Jensen and Johan Absalonsen return to full fitness. SønderjyskE made a poor striker swap by getting Bojan Golubovic and losing Rubin Okotie (who is continuing to score goals in 1860 München). Golubovic is not as speedy as Okotie and this is important since SønderjyskE are a team largely reliable on counters. If the injury problems continue in SønderjyskE, relegation is a clear threat. SønderjyskE have an excellent mentality though, so they are not falling apart just because they have had a few poor matches.

Our guess: 10th – SønderjyskE have not covered the gap in attack sufficiently, why the season could be difficult: you need goals to win matches. They are strong defensively and have a good mentality so we believe they will survive.

Top goalscorer: Bojan Golubovic is SønderjyskE’s choice as a main striker and with the eternal fitness problems of Tommy Bechmann, Golubovic will probably be the top goalscorer. However, we doubt he will score a two-digit amount of goals.

10. FC Copenhagen (5 points)

SoTR: 52.1% (5th)

TSR: 64.1% (1st)

PDO: 852 (11th)

Ball possession: 56.8% (2nd)

Goals scored: 5

Goals conceded: 8

It has been a poor start to the season for FC Copenhagen. The stats are good though. FC Copenhagen are dominating their matches, but has not really had a fair pay-off. The quality of the squad is good. Especially the midfield is superior, although the current injury of Nicolai Jørgensen is a set back. In attack, FC Copenhagen are very dependent on the current form of Andreas Cornelius. Fortunately, Cornelius seems to be on the way back to old form. The defense has had some initial problems, but based on the resume of the players (several internationals) this should be a momentary thing. They will play European football in autumn, which could have a negative league impact despite of the squad's decent width.

Our guess: 2nd – FC Copenhagen are already 7 points behind FC Midtjylland and we believe it will be a tough task to catch up. The European matches and the current absence of Nicolai Jørgensen are the factors that tip the favourite role to FC Midtjylland. But let’s see if FC Copenhagen sign a quality player before the transfer window closes.

Top goalscorer: Andreas Cornelius. He is the main threat of FC Copenhagen and a sure player in the line-up. He is also the main favourite for taking the league top goalscorer title.

11. Esbjerg (3 points)

SoTR: 53.1% (3rd)

TSR: 60.5% (2nd)

PDO: 893 (10th)

Ball possession: 54.4% (4th)

Goals scored: 4

Goals conceded: 6

Esbjerg are really not getting the full out of their potential. They could have had maximum points currently, but they have simply been too poor in finishing. They are creating a lot of chances. European qualification matches have stressed them, but since they were eliminated (very unfortunate) they should be fully fit for league matches. They have a strong midfield and a quality striker in Martin Pusic (will also be interesting to see the effect of new offensive player Robin Söder). The defense is strong, but has an unfortunate tendency to commit stupid and very costly mistakes.

Our guess: 6th - Esbjerg should advance, but the poor start means that they will probably not be able to fight for medals. Too bad- the team is great when the preferred eleven are fit.

Top goalscorer: Martin Pusic. He is the only real goalscoring threat in Esbjerg. A very strong player with a nice shot and great passion.

12. Silkeborg (2 points)

SoTR: 43.2% (11th)

TSR: 43.6% (8th)

PDO: 714 (12th)

Ball possession: 44.2% (10th)

Goals scored: 0

Goals conceded: 6

Goals scored: 0. That statistic is the main problem for Silkeborg. The offensive players were strong last year in the Danish 1st Division, but they have had a difficult start in the best league. It is clear that it has become a confidence issue. The team as so is decent (the SoTR and TSR stats are not very bad). The defense is okay, the midfield is okay and the attack is okay. And maybe this is just the problem, Silkeborg lack areas where they are more than just okay.

Our guess: 12th – Silkeborg have had a poor start and even though we believe that their average points per game will rise, it will not be enough to save them.

Top goalscorer: Morten Beck Andersen is playing the lone striker position and should start scoring at some point.

Betting recommendations on league position markets:

Winner: FC Midtjylland – 3.25 at Unibet (fine price – FCM should have at least 33% chance of winning)

Winner at winter break: FC Midtjylland – 2.25 at Bet25 (FC Midtjylland have a good margin to main threats (who also face an autumn with Europa League group stage))

To relegate: Hobro – 2.55 at Danske Spil (would still give Hobro more than 40% chance of relegation)

League top goalscorer (probability)

Here is our list of possible league top goalscorers and our assessment of the probability of that outcome.

Andreas Cornelius, FC Copenhagen (18%)

·            Current: 3 goals – main striker for the team expected to score most goals

Simon Makienok, Brøndby (10%)

·            Current: 3 goals – lone striker for offensively strong Brøndby, but risk of transfer

Martin Pusic, Esbjerg (9%)

·            Current: 3 goals – the only guy who can score for a very chance producing Esbjerg and no current transfer rumours

Nicklas Helenius, AaB (6%)

·            Current: 2 goals – if he gets into shape, he will be dangerous, but AaB normally plays with two strong attackers so he will have to share the goals

Anders K. Jacobsen, AaB (4%)

·            Current: 1 goal – same situation as Helenius, just one goal shorter

Uffe Bech, FC Nordsjælland (4%)

·            Current: 4 goals – he is a winger, has a history of injuries and are the centre of transfer rumours: unlikely to keep up scoring average

Joshua John, FC Nordsjælland (3%)

·            Current: 2 goals – he is also a winger, but more likely to play many games this season. Always a threat with his Robben move, but unlikely to end as a top goalscorer

Mads Hvilsom, Hobro (5%)

·            Current: 4 goals – has had a great start, but it looks like Hobro intend to use him as winger. Will be difficult to keep very high scoring average.

Morten Duncan Rasmussen, FC Midtjylland (4%)

·            Current: 2 goals – looks like Duncan will miss at least five matches with an injury, which will leave him behind competitors. Otherwise the obvious choice due to FC Midtjylland playing with a lone striker.

Sylvester Igboun, FC Midtjylland (3%)

·            Current: 2 goals – strong winger, but as a winger it will be difficult to beat true strikers.

The rest: 33%

Betting recommendations on league top goalscorer:

Martin Pusic – 15.00 at Unibet

Andreas Cornelius – 6.00 at Unibet

Consider combining the two bets (71.4% of stakes on Cornelius and 28.6% of stakes on Pusic and Makienok). The odds is 4.29 – (great value: 116% bet value according to our estimation). If you are not a customer at Unibet, please use our links to sign up.