OB-SønderjyskE

Friday 28/3 18.30

OB (6th) surprised us by winning in Brøndby without their midfield engine of Skulason and Spelmann (2-1). Replacements Schoop and Busuladic really did impressive so coach Bech is now having a positive problem. Offensively OB looked lively, especially driven by midfielder Rasmus Falk who had his best game of 2014. Even Skoubo scored (he is our second favourite OB scapegoat after the miserable Bodul)! OB’s 2014 have been a year of ups and downs. We only have to go one week back to find a very poor display at home against Viborg (1-1). You never know what to expect. OB will be without veteran central defender Anders Møller Christensen who will be replaced by the young Daniel Høegh. Høegh has been a starter but lost his place due to several personal mistakes. SønderjyskE (12th) got an important win in a round were most of their rivals in the bottom took points as well. SønderjyskE were a bit lucky to beat the in-form AaB (3-2) but they are finally having the luck they lacked in autumn (PDO (luckiness indicator) for autumn: 887 – spring: 1171). Especially striker Tommy Bechmann has been cynical. His two amazing goals last weekend were decisive and he’s got great confidence. SønderjyskE look a lot stronger than they did in the end of the autumn. They go out to win matches and have a strong belief in this possibility. Two important players left the last match with minor injuries, winger Johan Absalonsen and central midfielder Daniel Jensen, but no new information about their status has been published. We expect both of them to be ready, otherwise SønderjyskE look significantly weaker. It is worth noticing that they have played two H2H’s this season: in July OB-SJE 1-1 and in October SJE-OB 1-5. In both matches the away team was heavily dominating (shots on target from the two matches: 4-10 and 2-11). This coincides with the fact that both teams were the only ones with a lower SoTR (shots on target ratio) home than away in autumn (read this review). Add to this that is a Friday evening match; this is rarely a big crowd attractor.

We have pinpointed several reasons to put less weight on the home advantage for this match. We believe that OB are just a bit better than SønderjyskE, but it is not enough to warrant a huge gap in payoffs between home and away win, especially if Absalonsen and Jensen are fit. The gap seems too big here so we pick a valuable away win. A good additional bet based on stats would be the over 2.5 goals. Both teams are involved in matches with a high degree of chance creation.

Recommendation: 2 – 4.15 at Mermaidbet

Idea: Over 2.5 goals – 1.82 at Nordicbet