Brøndby-FC Nordsjælland

Sunday 9/3 17.00

Brøndby (4th) were lucky with a 1-0 win in Randers on Sunday. They were physically dominated and hardly created anything. In the end talismanic striker Simon Makienok entered and earned a (doubtful) penalty that gave Brøndby a win that leaves them close to the front-runners. Brøndby will not be put under a physical pressure this time since they are meeting the smaller and more technical rivals from the northern suburbs of Copenhagen. Brøndby will probably be without their two normal starters in the central defence, Boulahrouz and Albrechtsen, who both left the last match with injuries. Although alternatives Dumic and Stenderup are experienced they do not hold the same quality. The question is whether the ball will be much in this area. We saw that Brøndby dominated a strong AaB team in the last home match and with a quality striker like Makienok likely to be fit for a starting position FC Nordsjælland could get into trouble. FC Nordsjælland (5th) are a Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde team. At home on artificial grass they are strong and dominating (latest visualised in the 2-0 weekend win over Viborg with a shots on target dominance of 10 to 1). Away they are without confidence and easily controlled. The result is that FC Nordsjælland are the worst away team with only 4 points from a possible 27! FC Nordsjælland are suffering from a poor central defence and currently also the lack of their preferred striker Morten Nordstrand. Although alternative striker Aabech has impressed with 3 goals in the last 2 matches, FC Nordsjælland are undoubtedly stronger with Nordstrand on top since he is a quality striker (when fit).

It seems counterintuitive when thinking of the two teams last match, but we believe that Brøndby are the clear favourite to win this one. They are strong at home and the danger will only increase with the likely return of Makienok to the starting line-up. On the other hand, FC Nordsjælland is the leagues poorest away team, having lost 78% of their away matches this season. With that in mind we think it should be possible to give Brøndby a 50% chance of winning this one: nice value!

Tip of the Week: 1 – 2.25 at Mermaidbet